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Doesn't seem bad to me, given that it's still a couple months off, it's not a sequel, and the PR blitz hasn't really gotten off the ground yet.

 

I haven't pre-ordered the game yet, but once we get a little closer, I'll probably place an Amazon order for delivery either on the release date or shortly thereafter, depending on how busy I am at the time.

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Hm, now did I miss something.. or did they not have pc versions on that list? Ah well.. still, interesting to see how the console pre-orders are set so far..

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If you add the 360 and PS3 numbers to each other, Alpha Protocol grabs 6th place... And then we're not even counting the PC sales. That's good to know, if you want to compare to all the other games in the list.

 

I figure Obsidian have their asses covered, even though a few more preorders wouldn't hurt.

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I find strange the fact that AP has so many preorder and yet the reception both on RPG sites (just look at the RPGWatch comments on the GDC Walkthrough, I'm not talking about RPGCodex..) and big/casual ones like Destructoid/Gametrailers has been.. well lukewarm at best.

I also share their fears about the AI and linearity in level design to be honest, but I'll probably get the game anyway.

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The Codex isn't even aware that there is a video walkthrough from GDC :aiee:

This is a good thing. The Codex cannot like something, it would only hurt Obsidian.

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41k for Xbox, 25k for PS3, we can probably expect somewhere in the middle for the PC = that's 100k preorders with 13 weeks to go. I have no frame of reference so it's all wild guesses, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect that number to get a big boost in the weeks to come, maybe double. Combine that with no-preorder sales on the first day - again, does anyone know what proportion of first day sales are usually preorders? - and you could hope for AP to comfortably break 500k in the first couple days, and hit the 1 million milestone in those first few weeks.

 

As a 3-platform release and a new IP, that's probably the bare minimum for the game to be considered a commercial success by Sega, 2 million to get some congrats going round. To me those numbers sound okay but not yet great... of course, this is all really wild conjecture. I hope for the day when we get these kind of stats properly compiled and released to the public.

 

NB: at 170k Xbox preorders with 6 weeks to go Splinter Cell seems to be doing well, but then it's much closer and with an established franchise, so that's expected.

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41k for Xbox, 25k for PS3, we can probably expect somewhere in the middle for the PC = that's 100k preorders with 13 weeks to go. I have no frame of reference so it's all wild guesses, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect that number to get a big boost in the weeks to come, maybe double. Combine that with no-preorder sales on the first day - again, does anyone know what proportion of first day sales are usually preorders? - and you could hope for AP to comfortably break 500k in the first couple days, and hit the 1 million milestone in those first few weeks.

 

As a 3-platform release and a new IP, that's probably the bare minimum for the game to be considered a commercial success by Sega, 2 million to get some congrats going round. To me those numbers sound okay but not yet great... of course, this is all really wild conjecture. I hope for the day when we get these kind of stats properly compiled and released to the public.

 

NB: at 170k Xbox preorders with 6 weeks to go Splinter Cell seems to be doing well, but then it's much closer and with an established franchise, so that's expected.

 

1 million sales is huge. I really think you're overestimating how many sales are needed. Consider that it would be about $50 million dollars in sales (obviously minus costs but...)

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1 million would be a great success if AP was a PC-only release, being a new IP from a relatively young studio and with delay troubles. But this is a 3-platform release, which increases expectations and costs. Also, whatever we might think about the marketing's effect, I think Sega has put in a lot of investment PR-wise and are clearly wanting AP to be a big seller, something they can pump $ with DLCs and start a nice franchise with. It's clearly one of their big projects. I don't know. I mean, I doubt AP could reach Dragon Age / Mass Effect levels of sales right now, and Sega shouldn't/wouldn't expect that. But if AP flatlined at something like 700k after the first couple of months, I'm not so sure how happy they'd be.

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If you add the 360 and PS3 numbers to each other, Alpha Protocol grabs 6th place... And then we're not even counting the PC sales. That's good to know, if you want to compare to all the other games in the list.

 

But if you add the 360 and PS3 to each other for other multiplatform games as well... :ermm:

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I can certainly see where you're coming from, I'm just not sure you're correct. I'm not sure I'm correct for that matter. We're really just grasping at straws without and firm numbers or comments from those in the know.

 

Yes, agreed. It certainly doesn't hurt to see Alpha Protocol in the top 10 of any kind of preorder list though. :ermm:

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If you add the 360 and PS3 numbers to each other, Alpha Protocol grabs 6th place... And then we're not even counting the PC sales. That's good to know, if you want to compare to all the other games in the list.

 

But if you add the 360 and PS3 to each other for other multiplatform games as well... :ermm:

 

You're right, of course. That would make Alpha Protocol 8th place, just behind Red Dead Redemption, while FFXIII grabs a secure top spot...

"Well, overkill is my middle name. And my last name. And all of my other names as well!"

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The difference in sales between AP and Red Dead Redemption is 15000. Personally I think AP has more PC preorders than that, so...

 

Above Red Dead Redemption, we've got Madden NFL 11. Remember now that the preorders chart is only covering the US, and not Europe. I estimate the number of preorders on NFL 11 in Europe to be about zero units. I can't remember having seen a Madden title in a European store, and I can even less imagine anyone play it...

 

But accounting for the european market and for PC would mess a lot of things up in that chart, so let's stick to analyzing the amount of initial AP sales! My only real point with the above reasoning is that a lot of console exclusives would drop compared to AP if you don't account for PC.

 

I we compare the US and EU sales charts, we find that Americans are more prone to buying new games - 22% of top sellers in the US are new games, compared to only 4% in the EU. Which means, the initial sales will come mainly from the US. Since there appears to be no "Europe preorders chart" on vgcharts, I check out a local video game store (Webhallen) and check their charts, where I find that the interest for AP is stone cold. I would estimate that AP is around place 35-40 on a console preorders chart for Europe. Taking all things previously mentioned into account, plus comparing with the american preorders chart, yields about 15000 preorders in Europe, all consoles.

 

So, in the end we get about 100000 preorders total (when not counting with ad campaigns from SEGA, et.c.). But how large could ordinary sales the first week be?

 

Bad Company 2's sales in the US first week were 6 times their number of preorders 3 months before release (PS3+360, American market), and considering the relatively low interest for new titles in Europe, we take 6 times the number of american total preorders plus 2 times the number of European preorders. Total sales in the first week would therefore be about 500000 units. However, I don't expect AP to have the same momentum as BC2, so, a figure of less than half of what I mentioned is probably more likely :p...

 

phew :ermm:

Edited by Rostere

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Well take a look at Gearbox and Borderlands. Very similar situation for 2K. New IP and a huge shift in art direction in the 11th hour and pre-orders where not that high. It clocked in 3 million sales last week. One hopes AP can match half that number. The interesting thing is that Borderlands sales increased by one million after Gearbox started rolling out the DLC, which had some very nice content for its price, unlike the crap Bioware is currently trying to pass off as DLC. One hopes that both Sega and Obsidian take a gander at what Gearbox is doing because they have found a very nice niche market for their game and are making some huge returns.

Edited by Taiko

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  • 1 month later...

Unfortunately it doesn't look like the PR push have done that much of an impact, the numbers changed is pretty low considering it's to be released very soon. Still, have no real context to put the sales in, we don't know what SEGA is expecting considering it's a brand new IP or the budget of the game and all that stuff. But considering the long development I can't help but feel they would want more sales from the game.

Edited by Starwars

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