The World Economy

[Humodour]

The top economies of the world for 2008 (those with trillion dollar economies) were:

(Nominal GDP in US dollars, percent of world GDP, population in millions, population as percent of world, 'Group' membership)

 

Rank Country		  GDP			   GDP %   Population	 Pop %	HDI	 Group?
1	United States	$14.33 trillion   18.3%   306 million	 4.4%	0.950   G7
2	Eurozone		 $14.20 trillion   18.1%   253 million	 3.7%	0.935   G20, G7 partially
3	Japan			$4.84 trillion	 6.2%   127 million	 1.8%	0.956   G7
4	China			$4.22 trillion	 5.4%   1329 million   19.3%	0.762   G20
5	United Kingdom   $2.79 trillion	 3.6%   61 million	  0.9%	0.942   G7
6	Russia		   $1.77 trillion	 2.3%   140 million	 2.0%	0.806   G20
7	Brazil		   $1.67 trillion	 2.1%   189 million	 2.7%	0.807   G20
8	Canada		   $1.56 trillion	 2.0%   33 million	  0.5%	0.967   G7
9	India			$1.24 trillion	 1.6%   1144 million   16.7%	0.609   G20
10   Mexico		   $1.14 trillion	 1.5%   111 million	 1.6%	0.842   G20
11   Australia		$1.07 trillion	 1.4%   22 million	  0.3%	0.965   G20
-	Total			$48.83 trillion   62.3%   3717 million   54.0%		-
-	World			$78.36 trillion	100%   6879 million	100%		-

 

There is the future of the world. Interestingly, it doesn't particularly scream "CHINA" as some would have us believe. Membership to the G7 would appear to be fairly arbitrary.

 

The Eurozone is especially interesting (comprised of the 16 most stable economies of the EU). I can only see Europe becoming more cohesive as the years go by. The Treaty of Lisbon will probably eventually pass, making Europe a united federation of states and the most powerful country in the world (although America's defence spending would still be about 1.5 times larger). Although much of that basically applies now even without the Treaty of Lisbon (NATO, Eurozone, etc). And unlike America, China, Russia, etc, the EU gets as many seats as there are member states, giving it a significantly disproportionate advantage in voting situations (e.g. UN). It also has the unique ability to enlarge by incorporating other countries.

 

For reference, the GDP of the full EU is about $18 trillion USD.

[Monte Carlo]

Don't agree about Europe.

 

It's already becoming dangerously akin to the 19th Century Ottoman Empire than 21st Century uber-bloc. The Euro is just at the sniffles stage of a serious dose of flu, Italy and Spain are going to suffer as Germany protects it's own economy (Euroland orbits the German economy as we do the Sun). As for the Eastern European new arrivals, well their economies are already feeling the pain. Furthermore, given that they've just spent fifty years under the thumb of an unrepresentative, bureaucratic foreign power I suspect that they'll be much warier of diktat from Brussels. I give you the already turbulent Czech Republic's presidency of the EU (I'm on their side, by the way).

 

Personally I can't wait for Turkish membership of the EU. Why?

 

1. I like Turkey, there are all sorts of important geo-strategic reasons why it's a Good Thing...

 

...But

 

2. It's not in Europe. Well, not all of it.

 

3. So it will render the EU virtually meaningless.

 

Hoo-rah!

 

Back to the economy. I remember the 70's and 80's so am knuckling down for a rough five years. Has Globalisation failed? Probably not, but it will be the clarion call of the Left for the next few years. What new capitalist phoenix will rise from the ashes? There will be one, there always is. It's the people in their twenties I feel sorriest for, it's going to be tough out there with a concomitant effect on politics and society. Will we see a new late 60's-style radicalism or more Baader-Meinhof? A new Hayek-like economic resurgence or Keynesian paternalism? I don't know, sport fans, but it will be like the Chinese curse because we "live in interesting times."

 

I'm investing in hunting rifle manufacturers and tinned food companies.

 

Cheers

MC

[Humodour]

Typical euroskeptic Brit.

 

To be quite honest I doubt this recession is going to do anything much to the global economic framework (except maybe fry the toes of free market fundamentalists). Nothing really failed. There were just lapses in application (notably on America and Britain's part). All the radical economic reforms have already happened and the system is remarkably stable. And despite this being one of the worst recessions in recent history, the people suffering through it also have a higher quality of life than at any other point in history. Comparing this to the Great Depression, for example, is apples and oranges.

 

As for the Eurozone - you Brits have been decrying it's demise for a while now. Interesting, then, that your economy is suffering worse and interest in the Euro has increased as a result of this crisis. In fact, the Eurozone is predicted to be one of the first economies to recover because it is manufacturing based (unfortunately my own, Australia is supposedly one of the last because it's commodity-based).

 

But yeah, Turkish accession will be a very important (and IMHO necessary) hallmark for the EU. But it wouldn't render the EU meaningless. The EU's economic and political power is not based on whether or not all of it's members exist entirely on the continent of Europe.

[Monte Carlo]

It's interesting to see how Europe looks from Australia. From there it looks like a brave new way of dealing with the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. From here, it looks like a dangerously un-democratic, elitist and economically dubious would-be tyranny.

 

Yes, Britons are traditionally sceptical. We are an island race, and islands often produce strangely independent people. Europe as a supra-national entity was the dream of old men who feared another world war. A noble aspiration has become a technocratic nightmare run by a self-serving elite. Period. Remember this: British voters haven't been allowed a single referendum or free vote on any European legistation since the 1970's. We didn't vote for the Europe we have now.

 

As for the UK, yep, our economy is FUBAR. We over-relied on financial services with lassez faire regulation. Our government, run as it is by left-wing ex-university lecturers who've never run as much as a hotdog stand, thought they'd tamed the beast of Capitalism and got fat and lazy on the profits. We'll be back, though, and yes it'll be tough. No more or less tough than, say France (the Euro is crippling them because of interest rates) the Italians (who've never recovered from the introduction of the Euro at an over-inflated introduction rate), Spain (their economy could go the way of Latin American countries, just like ours) and don't even get me started on the fringe countries who will soon find out what happens when a Central Bank catering for lots of countries does when the wheel comes off (q.v. Ireland).

 

I want the European Union to become so big, so bloated and so irrelevant that it gradually and peacefully ceases to become relevant. It'll be like Rome, but without the fancy costumes.

 

Hey, look on the bright side, you live in Oz. Throw something on the barbie for me and I trust we have your support in the next Six Nations

 

Cheers

MC

[Humodour]

You Brits have a unique ability to say something I completely agree with (especially when the Yanks are busy being stubborn, or the Europeans are off with their heads in the cloud... which is basically all the time) and then totally ruin it with an unhealthy dose of pessimism. And the matter-of-fact yet comedic manner in which you deliver it only makes me irate.

 

The EU's democratic foibles are cause for concern but that doesn't mean you throw the baby out with the bathwater.

 

Hey, look on the bright side, you live in Oz. Throw something on the barbie for me and I trust we have your support in the next Six Nations

 

We play AFL over here you silly bugger.

[Monte Carlo]

A-ha! You see, I don't actually think I'm being pessimistic.

 

My optimistic vision for Europe would be a post-modern patchwork of nation states, themselves made up of semi-autonomous regions, living peacefully side-by-side. Breton and Cornishman, Basque and Celt, Londoners and Scots, Turkic peoples and Latvians... they would be free to make their own laws, create their own free trade areas, agreements and alliances. NATO, a European free trade area, strong Atlantacist ties to the USA... all of these things would exist. The 19th Century is gone, NATO would police the fractious borders and the small wars that lead to big ones would be history!

 

What wouldn't exist would be a crushing political machine, devoid of accountability that is based on the Napoleonic Code.

 

So, you see, I'm actually a starry-eyed Utopian optimist!

 

Cheers

MC

[Meshugger]

Why would Turkey join the EU? They are quite capable, like Russia, to go their own way. Turkey are neither part of the Arabic hemisphere, nor the European one. They can choose themselves instead.

 

Besides, unless the Kurds are allowed to have an independent state, the issue of Cyprus is solved and acknowledgedment of armenian genocide is done, let alone re-writing the constitution to fit the European ones, nothing will happen.

[Monte Carlo]

^ Clearly, the whole idea of Turkey joining the European Union is geographically preposterous (which I why I support it).

 

I also agree that Turkey is a capable regional power in it's own right. I'm a bit of a fan, actually.

 

However, successive Turkish governments have sought EU membership as a core policy objective for some time now. The benefits for Turkey are obvious.

 

Cheers

MC

[Humodour]

Why would Turkey join the EU? They are quite capable, like Russia, to go their own way.

 

Because they want to? I don't know, why don't you ask their members of parliament? Turkey has been dabbling with membership to the EU and it's predecessors since 1949. Even the current Islamist party in power is pressing to join the EU.

 

A lot of countries in the EU are also quite capable of going their own way. Aaaaand?

 

Turkey are neither part of the Arabic hemisphere, nor the European one. They can choose themselves instead.

 

But if they are part of anything, it's the European sphere of influence.

 

Besides, unless the Kurds are allowed to have an independent state

 

I don't know about that, but the US, Iraq, and Turkey just signed a pact on eliminating the PKKK or is it PPPK? Whatever the main Kurdish terror group is called.

 

the issue of Cyprus is solved

 

Probably your the main issue. But once it becomes the sole remaining bone of contention between the EU and Turkey, it, too will fall.

 

and acknowledgedment of armenian genocide is done

 

Turkey is already moving on this (though probably only because the EU tells them to). As a sign, ties between Armenia and Turkey are almost normalised.

 

let alone re-writing the constitution to fit the European ones, nothing will happen.

 

The Turkish constitution isn't terribly different to your typical European one. If other European states can manage conforming their constitutions to meet European guidelines, Turkey certainly can.

 

We're not talking about the next 5 years here. Probably the next 20. But that's still short term, relatively speaking.

 

For reference:

 

Babacan, flanked by Turkey's new chief EU negotiator Egemen Bagis, said that the European Commission had declared Turkey ready to open talks in six more chapters and urged the bloc to act on it.

 

"Turkey's target in this process is full membership," he said, pledging that Ankara would undertake fresh reforms to align itself with EU norms.

 

He said Turkey's EU membership process was continuing without interruption, adding the country's new National Program, which was prepared within the scope of the EU accession process, was issued in Official Gazette on December 31, 2008.

 

He also said reforms made by Turkey were not concessions given to the EU, adding those reforms would increase the standards of Turkish people.

 

Bagis told at the meeting that the government had fulfilled many important activities regarding the EU process in the last seven years, adding the biggest investment was made to Turkish democracy.

Edited January 24, 2009 by Krezack

[Meshugger]

Because they want to? I don't know, why don't you ask their members of parliament? Turkey has been dabbling with membership to the EU and it's predecessors since 1949. Even the current Islamist party in power is pressing to join the EU.

 

A lot of countries in the EU are also quite capable of going their own way. Aaaaand?

 

1949? There was no EU back then, let alone a Coal-steel union that was formed in 1953.

 

I have been to Turkey, and i have a friend who is married to a Turk. The only pro-EU turks are in the Istanbul area, which greatly differs from the rest of Turkey. It is very westernized. The rest of the country is pretty Atat

[Hurlshort]

Historically, has this ever worked before? The US is divided into states, but a national identity had to be established for it to stabilize.

 

I'm just concerned down the road it would lead to a Euro Civil War. But that is pretty pessimistic.

[Morgoth]

Historically, has this ever worked before? The US is divided into states, but a national identity had to be established for it to stabilize.

 

I'm just concerned down the road it would lead to a Euro Civil War. But that is pretty pessimistic.

Civil War. Oh the irony.... Because the whole point about the EU was to be a peace project in the first place...

And I agree with Meshugger 100% about his former post. Trying to melt European countries together to a soulless multi-kulti pudding with no individual identity anymore that is run by industrialists and lobbies will just weaken Europe, and will only cause additional braindrain into Canada, USA and Australia.

[Meshugger]

Ironically enough, i would like to become an immigrant myself Canada, US and even Britain looks more interesting by the day. I can see some sort of future there that i can't see in Europe at the moment. Hopefully this will change. But enough ranting.

[Gorgon]

The EU is a rich kid's club mainly concerned with mutual economic benefit, it doesn't have any kind of 'national' cohesion. Every time they try to establish a joint foreign policy it fails. The EU Parliament has gone from strength to strength at the expense of the chairman, which is comforting if you care about democracy, but it also means the EU will be about as likely to take a firm stance on anything as the UN.

 

Turkey won't get in, why, because if it did they would dominate the Parliament through proportional representation and we don't trust them. The talks are designed to stall Turkey until they are ready to accept something less than a full membership.

[Wrath of Dagon]

So what currency should I trade my soon to be worthless US dollars for?

[Rostere]

From here, it looks like a dangerously un-democratic, elitist and economically dubious would-be tyranny.

 

100% agree. The EU has already been hijacked by various lobby groups and countries with protectionist policies. See this for example. Short summary: the EU is paying money to [French] farmers so that they can continue a highly inefficient agricultural production. This, coupled with price regulations, allows them to sell their wares at an inflated price in Europe and dump their overproduction in non-EU countries, destroying their own production (example: Brazil). Frankly, both the economy in the Europe and the economy of the rest of the world would be better off without the EU. I mean, think it through - almost 50% of the budget goes to agricultural subsidies, while only 5% of the EU's population works on farms, and the farming sector is responsible for less than 3% of the GDP of the EU.

[Moatilliatta]

You are aware that people are trying to make progress on the CAP, right? It always strikes me as extremely funny when people try to paint the EU as a beurocratic beaurocratic that is always and only moving in the wrong direction.

 

I guess a lack of pessimism is a bit too much to expect from this forum.

[Gorgon]

Dumping kills local producers thus eliminating competition, it makes perfect business sense if you have our level of capacity,but it's not a very friendly kind of globalism. We found out that wheat actually burns pretty well, and you can use butter for other things than eating. We can't just give it away, that would destabilize prices too much.

 

To a certain extent however, this is a discussion from the last decades. Farm subsidies are no longer as prevalent, and we aren't hoarding mountains of produce to dominate prices like, say the diamond industry.

[taks]

i don't know if it is available, but the PPP (purchasing power parity) is a better GDP indicator than the nominal, which is what these values are. china ranks differently, in particular (they're the biggest difference of the top economies).

 

taks

[Walsingham]

It'd be intresting to see what teh difference is in access to services. Not just HDI, but things like doctors roads, electricity, etc.

 

Britain should always be Eurosceptical. Our independence has always relied on no one power gaining total ascendancy on the continent. I'm a fan of the EU when it stops us fighting one another. But I'm against it in many many smaller ways. The lack of demcratic accountability is one.

 

As far as an economic community goes, I still think that the Commonwealth made far more sense. Given that we each had things we actuallly wanted to trade, as opposed to the EU where we all make the same things.

[Rostere]

You are aware that people are trying to make progress on the CAP, right?

 

You mean just like they've been doing since, basically, the day it was invented? Of course I would be happy if they would actually do something, but that does not change my line of reasoning.

[Monte Carlo]

You are aware that people are trying to make progress on the CAP, right? It always strikes me as extremely funny when people try to paint the EU as a beurocratic beaurocratic that is always and only moving in the wrong direction.

 

I guess a lack of pessimism is a bit too much to expect from this forum.

 

Huh? The CAP that is criminally corrupt and has been since it's inception? The same CAP that hinders fair trade in developing countries? I don't want "trying to make progress" I want the thing scrapped. Now.

 

Oh, and please stop citing'pessimism.' It's a classic left-wing debating tactic, of course (shut down the opposing argument by suggesting negativity). It only works in high school debating societies. Play the ball, not the man.

 

Cheers

MC

[Hurlshort]

Um, anyone else notice that Iceland's government just collapsed? Wow.

[Monte Carlo]

^ Hmmm.

 

Lovely place, lovely people but it is about the same size as a small town. They've got about 600 part-time cops, me and my 76 year old mother could probably stage a half-decent invasion there armed with a fish.

 

Anyhow, I hope it works out there.

 

Cheers

MC

[Meshugger]

Apparantly, 2 or 3 of ministers from the resigning government suffered from cancer as well