NFL 2008 Season

[Laozi]

Larry Fitzgerald is a beast!

[Volourn]

"Where will Drew be again this year? Watching PR in the playoffs on TV."

 

*shrug* He has as many rings as Rivers has. And, according to you, that's all that matters. Right?

 

 

 

"I believe he avoided the organization, not the city itself. But we are a real sports city (whatever that means) we have stadiums, teams and everything. Shove that east coast bias up your ass! Yes I know you are in Kanada, but it still shines through...."

 

Nope. Not true. LA is a real sports city. Last i checked, LA isn't east coast. Not so 'east coast' baised now, am i rite?

 

 

 

"You calling me a fanboy ain't that rich, but whatever."

 

How cna youd eny it when you claim that Rivers is better than Peyton Manning. That is just ridiculousness.

 

 

" Never said PR was the best QB,"

 

You said he was better than peyton. By saying he's better than the concensus best QB Manning, it's safe to assume you think he's betteer than all other QBs. If peyton isn't better than Rivers; but Rivers isn't the best, which QB in the league is better than Rivers? Don't play games; just go all the way with your biasness.

 

" but I am glad he is on my team,"

 

Nothing wrong with loyalty. I've loyal to Eli too; but I would still prefer to have Peyton 'cause he's better.

 

" he's a winner,"

 

L0L Winner of what? You claim that super bowls is all that matter which Rivers has ZERO. Doesn't sound like a winner according to your own thinking.

 

" has heart "

 

Oh yeah, the code word for 'i'm gonna speak gibberish and make it sound like it means soemthing'.

 

 

"(playing last years AFC championship game with torn ACL in right knee won me over)"

 

Big deal. He's not first to play injured. Heck, Peyton did it this season. And, otehr shave done it too. *shrug*

 

 

" and never throws his teammates under the bus unlike some 3 time MVP QB I could mention."

 

The truth often hurt. Plus, Peyton is an actual leader, and when you are the best QB in the game, the focus is on you, and everything you say and do is important. Nobody, other than SD fanboys, really care what Rivers does. He's arguably not even SD's best player (though I'd give him the nod but others wouldn't).

[Aristes]

Of course, SD is only in the playoffs 'cause of a horrible division.

Lol

 

They have no control over who is in their division and who they play. Records are as meaningless as stats. As long as you get to the dance, it don't matter how you get there. A whole new season starts this weekend, lets see who wants it more.

Well, sure, you don't get bonus points in playoff games for having strong stats, or having a better record, or having played a stronger schedule, so it certainly doesn't matter to the teams and players involved.

 

But as fans and as rational analysts, all of those things are bits of evidence that we should use to set our expectations for playoff teams. I really really hate the kind of sports analysis that attributes success in hindsight to meaningless concepts like "wanting it more," "momentum," and "swagger." They're all shorthand for lazy analysis that looks accurate in hindsight, but that actually fails to provide any kind of predictive insight to games that haven't been played yet. Sure, emotional and motivational factors have great effects on NFL games, but unless they're hanging out in the locker rooms of both teams for the entirety of the week leading up to the game, nobody has anywhere close to enough information upon which to base a prediction on the relative emotional states of the teams.

 

Two caveats: First, real analysis of NFL games is very hard to do. The gap between the understanding of the sport that coaches, players, and management personnel have and the understanding that fans and sportswriters have is larger in the NFL than it is in any other sport. (Sadly, most sportswriters covering NFL football are not interested in brigding this gap with study of their own when they can simply crank out ill-informed columns on how Team A will win because it has Swagger.) So, unless we want to devote all of our free time to charting play-by-play results like NFL scouts do, we're left with educated guesses, aided by a few useful tools like DVOA.

 

Second, all the analysis in the world is only going to get you 3/4ths of the way there. A heck of a lot of what goes on in a football game is attributable to nothing but dumb luck. Given a couple random bounces of an oblong ball, a few a random trips over divots in the turf, or a few gusts of wind at the wrong time, and you can see teams that are clearly inferior by any objective or subjective assessment pull off an upset victory. You won't hear many analysts, coaches, or players say it openly because it sounds like a cop-out, but random chance plays a huge role in who ends up the champion of a single-elimination playoff.

 

And this is why the worse team can beat the better team on any given day. By the time teams get to the NFL level of play, luck should be the deciding factor. Sometimes it will take a lot of luck, because one team is that much better, but we're not talking about pitching the local high school team against the Steelers, either.

 

For my part, I don't think Miami is a particularly tough contender this year, but I would love to see them go all the way. If folks want to say, after the fact, that they only won by dumb luck, so be it. There's a reason folks don't dwell on that factor. To overstate it, or even state it sufficient to its impact on the game, diminishes the efforts of all the teams.

 

Furthermore, some teams do go in "wanting" it more. It's often impossible to say which psychological factors created "luck" for one team or made the other team "choke."

 

I probably sound like I'm in violent agreement. I am in agreement and don't wish to sound combative. I just like to keep in mind that there is virtually no contest in which luck does not provide a factor, and no contest at all between human players in which psychology provides none. How's that for our Latin double negative?

[Kelverin]

100% correct on todays games.

 

Mike Scifres not being voted on the Pro Bowl roster furthur indicates what a joke the selections have become as if anyone needed proof. Tonights real MVP, whoever watched the game knows this.

 

"LA is a real sports city."

Hahahahahahahahaha you mean the fans who show up late and leave early, that go to games to be seen and not watch the game? Get a clue

Edited January 4, 2009 by Kelverin

[Guard Dog]

Kelverin, I guess you are flying high right about now. Amazing, without LT at 100% I was sure the Colts would have cleaned your clocks. The bolts were peaking at just the right time in the season.

[Hurlshort]

I've been joking around that the Cards are a lock for the Superbowl with Warner, but maybe I'm on to something. It is a treat to watch the two best receivers in the game. Fitzgerald and Boldin are just fantastic, and they don't seem to have the same ego problems that plague all the other big time recievers in the league.

 

Hopefully Boldin will be ready for next week.

 

The Colts have really mastered the art of playoff choking. I thought the Chargers were done when they fumbled in the end zone towards the end of he game, but they found a way. Peyton really should have 3-4 rings at this point with the teams they've fielded over the years. He's a Hall of Famer, but man...

 

I think it might be more Harrison than Manning though. They guy disappears in the playoffs.

[Guard Dog]

I've been joking around that the Cards are a lock for the Superbowl with Warner, but maybe I'm on to something. It is a treat to watch the two best receivers in the game. Fitzgerald and Boldin are just fantastic, and they don't seem to have the same ego problems that plague all the other big time recievers in the league.

 

Hopefully Boldin will be ready for next week.

 

I haven't seen the Cards play this year yet but they surely came ready today. I thought Atlanta would have an easy time with them. IIRC the Cardinals only won one non division game this year. I would love to see them go all the way at this point just for the conversational value.

[Kelverin]

Kelverin, I guess you are flying high right about now. Amazing, without LT at 100% I was sure the Colts would have cleaned your clocks. The bolts were peaking at just the right time in the season.

Feels fantastic! The defense (our weak area all year) stepped up HUGE to hold the Colts to just 17 points in 5 quarters. Great game. Hope tomorrows games are just as competitive as todays were.

[Volourn]

Grats to Chargers, and Cardinals!

[Enoch]

It was an interesting weekend. The big surprise to me was Arizona's defense. Their pass rush won the game for them, and I wasn't expecting that. Towards the beginning of the season, their rush looked strong, but it had really tailed off in the weeks since then. So it's a bit of a surprise to see the effectiveness with which they were able to tear up the Atlanta OL.

[Aristes]

So, any predictions on these games? Personally, I'm all for the Ravens taking the whole enchilada, but I don't really care much now. It's funny to watch folks talk up the Ravens and the Eagles. Does anyone really think any of the wildcard teams are going to take the day? Personally, I think the Cards are out. Eagles will probably end up out also, even with their "momentum" against the Giants. On the other hand, Ravens are actually a little scary. I think they might topple the Titans, which would leave the Bolts. Meaning no offense to Kelverin, the Steelers are the better team. The only wildcard that has anything more than a thin veneer of momentum going into the next round is Baltimore. Of course, that's my take and I think that a lot of the talking heads disagree with me. Hell, I would like nothing more than to eat crow since the team I'd like most to win at this point is Tennessee.

[taks]

Sometimes it will take a lot of luck, because one team is that much better, but we're not talking about pitching the local high school team against the Steelers, either.

apparently you didn't catch any rams or lions games this year.

 

ARI's defense was definitely better this game than most. as i've said, it's like watching mizzou play, OL and D are both swiss cheese. warner gets the beat-down more than any other NFL QB. granted, some of it is his own fault since he always hopes to find someone open and refuses to move fast enough, but that's not uncommon with great passers (particularly those that are older) and he's definitely one of the best as well as one of the oldest still playing.

 

i've watched a few ARI games this year. i'm still torn on whether or not i want them to go far. i hate bidwell. i watched my dad scream at the tv for years cursing (well, not exactly) bidwell. i was soooo glad when he left town for the sun state. i wonder what my dad would have thought of the game saturday?

 

taks

[Kelverin]

Meaning no offense to Kelverin, the Steelers are the better team.

None taken, when last we meet the steelers we lost by one point, they were on fire then, we were out of it.

We have won there twice in our playoff history against zero losses. Now if we take this and Baltimore wins an 8-8 team can host the AFC championship game

Edited January 5, 2009 by Kelverin

[Volourn]

ARI over CAR - Warner is awesome, and I find the Panthers a paper tiger.

 

NYG over PHI - This could be a scary game for the Giants; but it is juxst unfeasible they'll actually be 1 and done one season after winning it all. Then again, the surprising can always happen.

 

SD over PIT - Either team can win; but SD just beat Indy and no offense to PIT; but if SD can beat the best QB they can beat even the awesome Burgerman.

 

TEN over BAL - Former Giants or Giant connected (in regards to Rivers) 4 tha W.

[wesley2]

I'm not a fan of either team, but I'm really anxious to see the baltimore game this week, seems to me it will be a great one.

[Guard Dog]

Well, the Dolphins are out so I'm pulling for the Cardinals now. But really I just want to see the Panthers lose. I hates them...haaatteess them. And the $^@*! Eagles too.

[Laozi]

warner gets the beat-down more than any other NFL QB. granted, some of it is his own fault since he always hopes to find someone open and refuses to move fast enough, but that's not uncommon with great passers (particularly those that are older) and he's definitely one of the best as well as one of the oldest still playing.

 

taks

 

 

I dunno, Roethlisberger takes a hell of a pounding which might ultimately lead to the Steelers downfall, but probably not. I went 2-2 last week, my NFC picks were spot on, not so much for the AFC.

 

Car beats Ari ~ Can the Cards stop an elite running game twice in a row? Nope, not on the road and not one as physical as the Panthers. Arizona's passing game is good enough to make it a seesaw battle in the first half, but ball control and a physical front seven win out.

 

Pit beats SD ~ If L.T. plays then maybe not, but its likely that Blitzburg defense will make things awfully easy for their offense. The Chargers really need someone to step up as a deep threat to keep Polamalu out of the backfield. The Steelers offense has been known to show up and look like crap, if the Chargers can shut down the run they'll likely have a chance.

 

Ten beats Bal ~ This is the toughest game to get excited about since I hate these two teams. Both teams cut and ran on cities which loved their teams for very short term monetary gain. The Titans where once my beloved Oilers, the wackiest group of have nots to ever put on a uni, I sorely miss them. The other team is lead by a man who was clearly somehow involved in a double murder, whats not to like? Neither team has a whole lot of speed to test these two secondaries and both defenses are stout up the middle and hard to run on. This game will likely be decided by which offense can keep from putting put their defense in bad positions. Vince Young comes off the bench to lead Tennessee down the field for the winning score.

 

Phi beats NYG ~ Familiarity breeds contempt and what could be better then two division rivals battling it out? Both teams have a good idea what the other wants to do and its going to boil down to line play and weapons. On defense Philly has found a nice mix of several D-linemen creating havoc and a secondary full of playmakers. Without Plaxico the Giants have looked fairly one dimensional and Philly won't see anything as scary as they did last week in the backfield. After a quick start NY's defense really came back to earth, which likely has a lot to do with their lack of depth on the line. A week off will help that, but unless DeSean Jackson gets another bad case of the drops and Westbrook comes up lame the Giants will have trouble containing all that speed. Someone like Curtis or Brown needs to step up and catch a few big passes while the Giants D is looking elsewhere. Regardless this should be a great game with two defense intent on attacking the other team's QB. It will be physical NFC East football.

[Enoch]

BAL over TEN. First team to 11 points wins! The two teams played very close early in the season (in Baltimore), with the Titans mounting a comeback win after a 3rd-quarter injury put the mediocre Frank Walker into a starting CB spot.

 

CAR over ARI. The Cardinals' defensive resurgence last week was impressive, but I still don't think they have the D and the run game necessary to hold any lead that their passing game gets them. Plus, Julius Peppers.

 

NYG over PHI. The last time these two teams played, Philly had a lot more motivation (NY had already clinched the division), extra time to rest and prepare (having played on Thanksgiving the week prior), the Giants were just going through the Plaxico mess, and Brandon Jacobs left the game with an injury in the 2nd quarter. This time, the Giants' are coming in healthy after a week off, the motivation is equivalent on both sides, and the offense has shown some life, post-Plax (see: Week 16 v. CAR). Giants should win (but I'm still very nervous).

 

PIT over SD. A warm-weather team at Pittsburgh in January. Also, is it just me, or does Phil Rivers throw more spineless "toss the ball to an assistant coach because the guy I want is covered" passes than any other good QB in the league? To get anything going against a well-rested Steelers D, at Pittsburgh in January, he's going to have to take more risks.

Edited January 7, 2009 by Enoch

[taks]

I dunno, Roethlisberger takes a hell of a pounding which might ultimately lead to the Steelers downfall, but probably not.

he might, too, but warner leads the league in this regard. i'm not sure what the actual stat is but they were talking about it during the game saturday. he's always had weak offensive lines and he's not as mobile as he could be... i guess that comes from being in the indoor league in which you get the ball and throw it... no QB movement required.

 

taks

[Kelverin]

Saturday, 1/10

 

Baltimore at Tennessee - Just can't pick a Kerry Collins led team, am hoping the Ravens pull this off.

 

Arizona at Carolina - Could be close or a blowout, I see the Panthers taking this either way.

 

Sunday 1/11

 

Philadelphia at NY Giants- Earth, Wind, and Fire will be the deciding factor. Jacobs with a week of rest

 

San Diego at Pittsburgh - Chargers have done well in Pittsburgh in the playoffs (2-0) I expect that trend to continue next week. Rivers was terrible last week and still won. GO BOLTS!

[CoM_Solaufein]

Another year of a Super Bowl that will suck. I don't like any of the teams in the play offs.

[Volourn]

Yeah, because last year's super bowl was *horrible*. Afterall, a game not being decided until the last minute is a horrible game, indeed.

[CoM_Solaufein]

That it is.

[Hurlshort]

I can't really remember the last Superbowl blowout. It's been good for awhile, with some pretty major upsets. No one expected the Patriots to beat the Rams a few years ago, and last season no one really expected the Giants to beat the Patriots.

[Kelverin]

The last steeler vs seahawk SB put me to sleep, the first time thats ever happened. But the recent SB's have been more exciting. It's been a good run.