NFL Season 2007

[Slowtrain]

WHat, no points?

You want to go by points? I'll play. Here is the spread and I will stick by my original picks.

 

1/5 4:30 ET At Seattle -3 Washington

1/5 8:00 ET Jacksonville -2.5 At Pittsburgh

1/6 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -3 NY Giants

1/6 4:30 ET At San Diego -10 Tennessee

 

 

OK. Let me think about those for a bit. The only one that looks like it might change would be the San Diego/Tennessee game. 10 points is a lot in the playoffs. The Chargers can score, but Rivers isn't playing quite as well as last year, which leaves a lot of their offense on the ground with LT. Tennessee isn't a real scoring threat, but they have a good defense. Plus there is some bad blood between these two which means everybody will be hitting extra hard, which would lead one to expect a lower scoring game regardless.

[Enoch]

The only one that looks like it might change would be the San Diego/Tennessee game. 10 points is a lot in the playoffs. The Chargers can score, but Rivers isn't playing quite as well as last year, which leaves a lot of their offense on the ground with LT. Tennessee isn't a real scoring threat, but they have a good defense. Plus there is some bad blood between these two which means everybody will be hitting extra hard, which would lead one to expect a lower scoring game regardless.

Also, check the weather forecast. Sloppy, rainy conditions are not often kind to double-digit favorites.

Edited January 5, 2008 by Enoch

[Kelverin]

Sloppy, rainy conditions are not often kind to double-digit favorites.

They have been predicting the rain would start yesterday. We have not had a single drop. I'll believe it when I see it.

[Slowtrain]

My newly restyled and updated picks:

 

 

1/5 4:30 ET At Seattle -3 Washington

 

Seattle. Seahawks are a better team, playing at home. I don't think it will even be close. The NFC east has been a tougher division for the skins, true, but even still.

 

 

1/5 8:00 ET Jacksonville -2.5 At Pittsburgh

 

Steelers. Steelers are battered, Jags are playing well, but Big Ben is fab and the Steelers are a Super Bowl experienced team and have a lot of pride. A close game right to the end, neither team is going to run away with it.

 

1/6 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -3 NY Giants

 

Tampa Bay. If the Giants win they will win big, if they lose they will lose big. It all depends on Manning and his ints vs TDs. Given his 4 tds against the Pats he is now set to throw 4 ints against the Bucs with 2 returned for TDs. Tampa is quite good defensively against the pass. Garcia may not be a great quaterback but he has shown he doesn't cough up a lung in the playoffs.

 

 

1/6 4:30 ET At San Diego -10 Tennessee

 

Tennessee. The 10 points is too much. Titans are strong defensively especially on the ground. Even if Rivers plays well, Titans are still good against the pass. Question is can Tennessee score enough to keep it close regardless. I think they can

[Slowtrain]

hmmm. The seattle offense looks totally inept. Brady or Manning would have put up forty points in the first half if they had been playing behind that defense.

[CoM_Solaufein]

Yeah right.

 

Seattle won. Now they can go play my team next.

[Slowtrain]

Is it possible for a team to look completely unimpressive while scoring thirty-five points? Why, yes it is!

 

If the Seahawks don't bring some actual game to Lambeau Field, the Packers are going to bury them in it.

[CoM_Solaufein]

Green Bay will bury them in the Frozen Tundra regardless.

 

Watching two of my favorite teams play makes it a hard choice on who I want to win. This being most likely Favre's last year, he's got to go all the way to the Super Bowl.

[Slowtrain]

Good grief. 3 ints in one half? How did they replace Big Ban with Little Manning without anybody noticing?

 

 

I wish I could say the Jags looked good, but they really haven't had to do anything yet. 96 yard kickoff return, int return for a TD and a short field TD drive off a second int. It's like they are playing with 2 quarterbacks. Hardly fair. Still the second half to go though.

[Slowtrain]

Wow. A good game. Pittsburgh played hard like we knew they would and they had their chances. Big Ben had a good year and he played well at times tonight, but he hurt his team badly several times with his decsions and his penchant for holding the ball way too long.

 

Assuming San Diego wins tomorrow, which is probable, the Jags go to New England next week. If the weather is bad in New England, the Jags might have a chance. But if the weather is decent, I can't see them beating the Pats.

[Kelverin]

the Jags go to New England next week. If the weather is bad in New England, the Jags might have a chance. But if the weather is decent, I can't see them beating the Pats.

The Jags have an excellent chance to win in New England not matter what the weather is like. I think they will pull off the win.

 

NFL passing leaders are 0 - 41 in super bowl wins

Cant wait to see the point spread.

 

Interesting enough the point spread for tonights game was Jacksonville by 2.....Those guys are good

 

 

The Redskins were soooooo close today. The final score did not tell the whole story. And no way in hell the Seahawks win in Lambeau Field

[DarthVala]

NYG 31

TB 21

 

 

 

TEN 17

SD 28

[Enoch]

The Jags have an excellent chance to win in New England not matter what the weather is like. I think they will pull off the win.

 

NFL passing leaders are 0 - 41 in super bowl wins

Cant wait to see the point spread.

 

Interesting enough the point spread for tonights game was Jacksonville by 2.....Those guys are good

 

 

The Redskins were soooooo close today. The final score did not tell the whole story. And no way in hell the Seahawks win in Lambeau Field

NFL passing leaders don't win the SB mostly because the biggest passing games tend to be the ones where your team is trailing by 3 TDs for most of the 2nd half (i.e., crappy defense correlates strongly with high passing yards, and teams with lead usually get conservative and stop passing so much). I don't see how the experience of those teams has anything to do with this years' Pats, who have anything but a crappy defense and prefer to keep throwing rather than go conservative when they get a lead.

 

The line won't come out until it's the matchup is certain, but if they play next week, I'd guess that JAX-NE's line would be somewhere in the area of NE-8.5. Jacksonville has about as good a chance as anyone of taking NE down, but it's still not particularly likely. Look for NE to spread their receivers out on offense and throw to whoever is being covered by the ancient Terry Cousin.

[Slowtrain]

Anything is possible, of course. That's why they play the games. But while I think the Jags can score AGAINST New England, I don't think they can score WITH New England if the Pats are firing on all cylinders. Last night the Jags looked less than overwhelming, both offensively and defensively. If either Manning or Brady is playing qb instead of Big Ben, the Steelers probably win that game by 10 points. And New England beat a pretty healthy Steelers team pretty soundly in week 13 or thereabouts, which was after the Pats had come off their super dominant run and were playing at a more normal level again.

 

The only team that I would be willing to put money on beating the Pats is the Colts. Indy played great football down the stretch during the regular season, better than the Pats imo, and based on that I consider them the best team currently in the NFL.

[Slowtrain]

NFL passing leaders are 0 - 41 in super bowl wins

 

I thought I read somewhere recently that no rushing leader has ever won a SB either.

 

edit: I can't find where I might have read that. Maybe I imagined it.

Edited January 6, 2008 by CrashGirl

[Volourn]

"NFL passing leaders don't win the SB mostly because the biggest passing games tend to be the ones where your team is trailing by 3 TDs for most of the 2nd half (i.e., crappy defense correlates strongly with high passing yards, and teams with lead usually get conservative and stop passing so much)"

 

Must explain Peyton's big season. His team was trailing a lot there. L0L

[DarthVala]

NYG 31

TB 21

 

 

 

TEN 17

SD 28

Well, at least i was right about the point deficits.

[Enoch]

"NFL passing leaders don't win the SB mostly because the biggest passing games tend to be the ones where your team is trailing by 3 TDs for most of the 2nd half (i.e., crappy defense correlates strongly with high passing yards, and teams with lead usually get conservative and stop passing so much)"

 

Must explain Peyton's big season. His team was trailing a lot there. L0L

Peyton has led the NFL in passing yardage twice: in 2000 and 2003. (Link.)

 

During those years, the Colts defense was not particularly good, ranking 20th in scoring/11th in yards in '03, and 15th in scoring/21st in yards in '00. (Link.)

 

It's not the strongest example of the correlation out there, but it's a contributing factor to his high numbers those years. Mostly, I was trying to rebut the implication that any team with the top passer on their squad was doomed in the playoffs. That's just silly. Sure, it has always proven true in the past, but that doesn't mean that there's any causal relationship involved. It's like saying noticing that teams who run kneel-down plays at least 3 times in a game are 58-0 over the past 5 years,* and concluding that a team can guarantee victory by opening their first offensive drive with three kneeldowns.

 

 

 

* (Stat is made up for explanatory purposes)

 

 

Edit: And allow me to brag a bit-- my straight-up picks were 4-0 this week.

Edited January 7, 2008 by Enoch

[Kelverin]

Second round of the playoffs.

 

 

1/12 4:30 ET At Green Bay -8 Seattle

1/12 8:00 ET At New England -13 Jacksonville

1/13 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -8 San Diego

1/13 4:30 ET At Dallas -7.5 NY Giants

[Slowtrain]

13 points is crazy. New England's defense is way too suspect for that large a spread at the moment.

[Kelverin]

1/12 4:30 ET At Green Bay -8 Seattle

1/12 8:00 ET At New England -13 Jacksonville

1/13 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -8 San Diego

1/13 4:30 ET At Dallas -7.5 NY Giants

 

San Diego is going to win and Jacksonville might win outright as well

[Volourn]

Seattle

New England

Indianapolis

New York Giants

[Gfted1]

Terrell Owens Back at Practice, Appears on Track for Playoff Game WooHoo!

[Kelverin]

Terrell Owens Back at Practice, Appears on Track for Playoff Game WooHoo!

What Terry Glenn status?

[Enoch]

Straight-up, it's tough not to like the chalk this week. I wouldn't be shocked if either of the NFC underdogs pulled an upset. Both of the top NFC teams look better than their opponenets, but they also have enough flaws that they could end up on the losing end if the game goes the wrong way early. In the AFC, though, it seems very unlikely that anything is going to get in the way of a Pats-Colts AFCCG (a.k.a., "the real Super Bowl").

 

Yeah, I know the Chargers have beaten Indy already this season, but the Colts are much healthier now, and even then that game was in SD, very close in score, and full of anomalous events favoring SD that are extraordinarily unlikely to happen again (2 return TDs, Peyton throwing 6 INTs, Vinatieri missing 2 FGs). Plus, Gates is hurt.

 

As for the Pats, the best sports comparison I've seen on them is Tiger Woods when he was on his tear of winning Majors. Sure, Tiger isn't perfect, and you can beat him, but to do so, you've got to sustain a level of play that is probably over your head for an entire tournament. If you slip at all, even for a bit, he's going to be right there with you, taking that stroll down the 18th fairway. Staying with the Pats is close to the same thing. Teams that really get up for the game can play with them for 2, 3, or even sometimes 4 quarters. But in the instant that they slip back to their normal level of play, even for a little bit, the Pats will see their opportunity and take control of the game. It's not that they're that much better than other teams when other teams play their best-- they're just playing at the top of their game far more consistently than any team I've ever seen. I like Jacksonville as a team, and I think they can win, but I wouldn't give them more than a 1-in-5 shot at doing so. (I haven't decided yet what I think about that 13 point spread.)

Edited January 10, 2008 by Enoch