The All Things Political Topic - What's Going On...?

[BruceVC]

2 minutes ago, Elerond said:

EU failed in trade talks because it members failed to have united goal, Germany and France wanted quick resolution and other members also had differing agendas. Situation is same with Israel, Germany refuses to give any opinion and other members have quite differing opinions about the situation, so EU fails to have any opinion on the situation.

So EU is currently failing as union.

This is  a reality of having different countries in a working union. Its expected to have different opinions on geopolitical events 

But the EU is better than no EU. The single market and reality of the Euro are advantages for its members

Lots of countries want to create a similar economic model to the EU like Africa with the AU

We constantly talk about the economic advantages of inter-Africa trade and that requires an EU model of  the unity of Africa

But by default that doesnt mean countries will agree on all geopolitical events like Israel, Russia  or these US tariffs 

 

 

 

 

 

[Elerond]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

This is  a reality of having different countries in a working union. Its expected to have different opinions on geopolitical events 

But the EU is better than no EU. The single market and reality of the Euro are advantages for its members

Lots of countries want to create a similar economic model to the EU like Africa with the AU

We constantly talk about the economic advantages of inter-Africa trade and that requires an EU model of  the unity of Africa

But by default that doesnt mean countries will agree on all geopolitical events like Israel, Russia  or these US tariffs 

Eu that works only for Germany and France is worse than no EU

[BruceVC]

14 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Eu that works only for Germany and France is worse than no EU

Do you think the EU should dissolve and go back to individual countries?

[Elerond]

15 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Do you think the EU should dissolve and go back to individual countries?

If it fails in its purpose, then it is just expensive layer of unnecessary bureaucracy. Last couple years EU has failed its main purpose. It allows internal trade restrictions, it fails force free movement, it fails to negotiate trade deals that benefit union as whole instead of just couple member states. It fails in its mission to ensure human rights for all. It constantly increases its operational spending but benefits for member states are decreasing. It fails to force member state to follow the rules with constant new exception rules. It fails to take leadership when its needed. It fails to use its economical strength to ensure peace in Europe. Even when it tries to do something it does watered down version instead of actually progressing situation. It has become tool of stagnation instead of tool of progress and growth.

[BruceVC]

16 minutes ago, Elerond said:

If it fails in its purpose, then it is just expensive layer of unnecessary bureaucracy. Last couple years EU has failed its main purpose. It allows internal trade restrictions, it fails force free movement, it fails to negotiate trade deals that benefit union as whole instead of just couple member states. It fails in its mission to ensure human rights for all. It constantly increases its operational spending but benefits for member states are decreasing. It fails to force member state to follow the rules with constant new exception rules. It fails to take leadership when its needed. It fails to use its economical strength to ensure peace in Europe. Even when it tries to do something it does watered down version instead of actually progressing situation. It has become tool of stagnation instead of tool of progress and growth.

Thats fine, so you believe the EU should dissolve and go back to individual countries?

Im asking if you believe in the EU continuing or ending? And it doesnt mean its going to happen, Im interested in your personal opinion 

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

..the Euro are advantages for its members

The Euro is a massive net disadvantage for its smaller/ weaker members because monetary policy of the Eurozone is run for the larger, stronger members. That's true of just about every EU policy. If it's a choice between benefiting Cyprus, Portugal, Malta, Finland, Slovenia; or Germany, then the decision is automatically made to favour Germany. Most of the PIIGS have never really recovered from the 2009+ financial crises- 16 years ago now- and Ireland only did by stealing tax revenue off everyone else.

Current EU is an awful worst mish mash of federalism/ ad hoc integration and independent policies that is the worst of both worlds.

[BruceVC]

6 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

The Euro is a massive net disadvantage for its smaller/ weaker members because monetary policy of the Eurozone is run for the larger, stronger members. That's true of just about every EU policy. If it's a choice between benefiting Cyprus, Portugal, Malta, Finland, Slovenia; or Germany, then the decision is automatically made to favour Germany. Most of the PIIGS have never really recovered from the 2009+ financial crises- 16 years ago now- and Ireland only did by stealing tax revenue off everyone else.

Current EU is an awful worst mish mash of federalism/ ad hoc integration and independent policies that is the worst of both worlds.

Having a strong currency is generally not considered a bad thing

The Euro is the worlds second most traded currency and holds second place for foreign reserves so starting just with that its considered a very popular currency because of the economic strength of the EU 

Also if someone from the EU goes on holiday with Euros they have massive spending power in countries with weaker currencies vs the Euro. Thats why countries like South Africa are such attractive tourist destinations, its because of the strength of the Euro. And then the EU can import goods easier around cost also because of the strength of the Euro vs other currencies

A strong currency has its negatives, its more expensive to import goods from the Euro and its more expensive to go on holiday to the EU if you from places like SA 

But the advantages of a strong currency apply to all EU members that use the Euro, it doesnt matter if you a small EU country or a large EU country

If you dissolve the EU and you go back to previous currencies specific to each country you will still find countries like Germany or France having stronger currencies than Portugal or Slovenia because then its only about the individual economies size 

I dont see how abandoning the Euro will be change the strength and buying power of smaller countries currencies?

 

 

[Maedhros]

51 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

The Euro is a massive net disadvantage for its smaller/ weaker members because monetary policy of the Eurozone is run for the larger, stronger members.

If that was the case, then why don't all the weaker members just leave the union?

(Genuinely curious, I don't have an opinion either way).

[uuuhhii]

obviously france and germany run eu more than malta

france will predictably be the loudest voice complain about getting extorted by usa

problem is will eu rally around this issue

likely no

[Zoraptor]

5 hours ago, Maedhros said:

If that was the case, then why don't all the weaker members just leave the union?

(Genuinely curious, I don't have an opinion either way).

The union as in the EU itself? The EU as a whole has definite advantages for weaker members- developmental funding, large free trade bloc and the like- which make staying in it a positive trade off. Or, perhaps, a trade off that is seen as significantly safer/ less risky than the alternative. A proper single economy would have advantages for them too, similar to how somewhere like Alabama in the US is subsidised federally by California's stronger economy; it's the weird hybrid thing that doesn't really work well.

The union as in the monetary union? Arguably, Greece would have been far better off leaving the Euro during its crisis. Instead of having its currency tied to Germany's and effectively having money pumped out they could have set their own exchange rates to improve competitiveness and inflated their debt away at the same time. With a floating independent currency and a weak economy you have a weak currency, and competitiveness improves since you'd get more drachma for the olive oil you sell to Germans and they'd get better value for their holidays so would be more likely to visit. But with a weak economy and a strong currency Middle Eastern or North African olive oil is cheaper, and it's cheaper to holiday in Turkey. It's extremely risky to leave though, and there would be a lot of the more, hmm, strident Europhiles who'd want anyone leaving the Euro out of the EU as well. That's a particular risk for a single, relatively small country like Greece though, not so much if it was the whole PIGS+ since Italy and Spain are too big to kick out.

5 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Having a strong currency is generally not considered a bad thing

It's certainly a bad thing if your economy is weak though.

Ultimately the problem is the same as it's been since its inception: the Euro is weaker than it 'should' be for its strong economies, which improves their competitiveness and stronger than it should be for the weaker ones, decreasing their competitiveness. That's a classic viscous* circle for the weak and not really a virtuous one for the strong since the benefit for them lasts only until the time the weaker ones start pulling them down.

*sigh. I knew one of these days I'd actually write it

Edited Tuesday at 03:27 PM by Zoraptor

[rjshae]

On 7/27/2025 at 11:00 PM, BruceVC said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2xylk3d07o

The EU had now also cut a tariff deal with the USA, 15% on most EU goods

And the EU has committed to certain other trade agreements  with the USA

Both sides will benefit from this 

The way I read it, this is a "framework" for a trade deal. The details have yet to be worked out, and those may balance the equation depending on the particular classes of goods. I suspect Germany supports it because of their energy needs (per Russia embargoes); France, naturally, does not. The revenue differences may instead be balanced out with digital taxes, &c.

Then again, DJT is known for his negotiating flakiness, so who knows how long it will last?

[Malcador]

UK threatening to recognize Palestine is funny, they'll retract it once Israel drops a couple more pallets saying they see positive intent.

[ShadySands]

3 hours ago, rjshae said:

Then again, DJT is known for his negotiating flakiness, so who knows how long it will last?

This. You never know if he's just going to back out of any deal because he needs a "win" at the moment. While they are basically forced to do business with him now you can be assured that a lot of countries will try to pivot away from reliance on the US in the future which only weakens us.

[uuuhhii]

did uk really banned phub right now

the most depressing time in the last 50 year and they want to make people even more depressed

[Malcador]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-canada-recognize-palestinian-state-conditions-1.7597525

Pro Israel gnashing their teeth over this. Still not sure how this is a reward for Hamas like I keep seeing people say

[rjshae]

4 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-canada-recognize-palestinian-state-conditions-1.7597525

Pro Israel gnashing their teeth over this. Still not sure how this is a reward for Hamas like I keep seeing people say

Countries keep holding out recognition as if it is an incentive to settle on peace. But that just isn't happening. Just recognize the palestinians already and move on. Recognition is no guarantee of survival. But perhaps it'll get them talking to each other.

[uuuhhii]

this is not victorian age

recognition from france and uk doesn't worth much

they could do something useful and stop arm sale

they wouldn't

[Zoraptor]

There is some theoretical value in getting 14-1 votes in the Security Council instead of 10-1 and 160-10 votes in the UNGA instead of 135-10 at least, if only for the optics of it all.

But yes the sort of people in power in Israel- and to be blunt about it the sort of people Israelis elected, as the Only Democracy in the Middle East™ and have consistently elected pretty much this entire century- are not going to fundamentally change their minds unless forced to by more than mere optics. If they were that sort of person we wouldn't be in this situation. 

Until something actually happens it's all lip service anyway and the absolute barest of bare minimums* that they think they can get away with to placate the populace seeing starving children on their screens. If Israel stopped tomorrow it would all go away, when it really, really, shouldn't. Leaving Palestinians in the state they've been in for the past 70+ years is a sad indictment on pretty much everyone involved, but we all know the collective west would be perfectly happy to leave them that way so long as it isn't actively embarrassing. If they weren't that sort of people we also wouldn't be in this situation.

*Similar to the ICC response really, they've done the barest of bare minimums to paper over accusations that they're western puppets and that's all. They haven't even updated to include new (eh, not that far away from his anniversary in the role) Defence Minister Katz yet let alone added anyone else, despite the very obvious evidence.

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, rjshae said:

Countries keep holding out recognition as if it is an incentive to settle on peace. But that just isn't happening. Just recognize the palestinians already and move on. Recognition is no guarantee of survival. But perhaps it'll get them talking to each other.

I dont see  it making any difference to any permanent solution to this decades long conflict 

You will never  achieve a real solution until leadership on both sides is prepared to compromise and negotiate in good faith 

And thats completely lacking and has only got worse since 7 October 

The Palestinians dont even have an official political " voice " that negotiates for them, is it the Hamas or PA faction that has the  real support of the Palestinians, and Israel is currently controlled by an embolden right-wing government with even less interest in negotiations

End of the day the world cant force peace in any conflict where the 2 sides involved have no real interest in talking 

 

[BruceVC]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/gdp-q2-2025-.html

Overall good economic metrics for the US economy  for its 2nd quarter 

Its too early to understand the impact that tariffs  on imports and goods within the US will have and I would wait for last quarter to see that impact 

[Lexx]

3 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Overall good economic metrics for the US economy  for its 2nd quarter 

Probably because everyone noticed that Trump is just bull****ting himself through the day and nothing really changes. They did manage to cost me a hell of a lot money in the last 6 months, though.

/Edit: I just checked for lolz. Trump has cost me something between 10.000 to 15.000€ since he is in office.  It's money I will never see again. And I'm not even someone who got hit really hard, heh.

Edited 10 hours ago by Lexx

[BruceVC]

5 hours ago, Lexx said:

Probably because everyone noticed that Trump is just bull****ting himself through the day and nothing really changes. They did manage to cost me a hell of a lot money in the last 6 months, though.

/Edit: I just checked for lolz. Trump has cost me something between 10.000 to 15.000€ since he is in office.  It's money I will never see again. And I'm not even someone who got hit really hard, heh.

How did Trump cost you this money?

Is it because of shares you invested in  or currency fluctuations?

[Lexx]

Mostly currency fluctuations. Because of his economic shenanigans, the USD went down hard and I got paid less. 

[rjshae]

9 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/gdp-q2-2025-.html

Overall good economic metrics for the US economy  for its 2nd quarter 

Its too early to understand the impact that tariffs  on imports and goods within the US will have and I would wait for last quarter to see that impact 

Yes, this may be currently driven by the stockpiling that took place during the early period of DJT's tarrif threats. Eventually these will run out and the increased cost of imports will need to be absorbed. It's already hitting the Auto industry in the form of billions in losses that the companies have had to absorb.

[ShadySands]

Trump has been costing me money since his first term. This is due to changes on itemized deductions for taxes.