The All Things Political Topic - Nothing strengthens authority so much as silence

[uuuhhii]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Guess Israel is going to keep up the bombing, they have "other goals".

 

1 trillion military budget have to be used to bomb some people somewhere

[Malcador]

Trump speaking to Bibi lately is what prompted his "It’s not politically correct to use the term, “Regime Change,” but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!" post. 

 

[Gromnir]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Trump speaking to Bibi lately is what prompted his "It’s not politically correct to use the term, “Regime Change,” but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!" post. 

 

so...

btw,

and

Early assessments raise questions over whether US destroyed bulk of enriched Iranian nuclear material

but even if the attacks were intelligent planned and successful, iran's capability to construct a nuclear weapon would not have been ended, so what possible alternative were there for israel's attack?

am seeming to recall we posited an alternative theory explaining israel's motivations back on 13 june.

as for US involvement, as ridiculous as it sounds, am suspecting the most significant factor which led to the US bombing/striking fordow, natanz and isfahan were neither ending iran's nuclear breakout threat nor regime change. am gonna guess @Malcador and most obsidian boardies do not watch fox news, but israel were getting a whole lotta positive coverage on that netwok over the past week. as far as we can tell, given the reality that the ending iran's nuclear threat argument is implausible, and that even just the news o' possible regime change is gonna push up oil prices, the most obvious explanation for why the US would insert itself into this mess is 'cause trump were jealous o' the press israel were getting on fox and he didn't wanna look like he were impotent, irrelevant or TACOing.

god help us all.

edit: the following link includes updated info 

 

HA! Good Fun!

 

Edited Monday at 02:34 AM by Gromnir

[Gromnir]

unrelated to iran, so am posting separate...

"In her 51-page order, Judge Holmes said the government failed to prove there is a "serious risk" that Abrego Garcia will flee or that he will obstruct justice in the case. Holmes also said the government's evidence that Abrego Garcia is a member of MS-13 "consists of general statements, all double hearsay" from cooperating witnesses."

however, please keep in mind that while the judge ordered mr. garcia's release, he were being held on criminal charges. am suspecting nothing functional changes for abrego garcia as he is gonna need endure continued ice detention. however, the point is that the judge observed that the criminal case the fed slapped together is weak. 

contrary to the expectations o' many hereabouts, the fed (pre 2025) don't manufacture cases or use sleight o' had nonsense to get indictments and convictions. the thing we liked most about working for the fed were the hours-- as close to 9-5 as any attorney job is ever gonna be. why? you got unlimited resources and time, and the line prosecutors (ordinarily) is insulated from politics. so not like tv or the movies. 

regardless, the point is judge holmes declared bs on fed prosecutors, but with everything else going on, few will notice or care.

HA! Good Fun!

 

Edited Monday at 02:27 AM by Gromnir

[BruceVC]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...-meet-sunday-over-us-strikes-iran-2025-06-22/ 

Russia, China and Pakistan are bringing a UNSC resolution forward for an immediate end to the Israeli and US military campaign on Iran

This will be as successful as the numerous UNSC resolutions raised for Russia to end its war in Ukraine

And it always cringe to hear Russia grandstanding  about how " terrible invasions and wars are "

Russia just needs to stay out of any commentary around Iran, they have ZERO credibility on this " concern "

[Gorgon]

MIGA !

this is a thing now. 

[Pidesco]

 

Migas à Alentejana

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Gorgon said:

MIGA !

this is a thing now. 

Glad he didn't hit the N key by accident.

 

8 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Russia just needs to stay out of any commentary around Iran, they have ZERO credibility on this " concern "

Considering who else is in commentary around Iran, they have decent credibility. 

[rjshae]

I'm skeptical that the USA accomplished Trump's goals with Iran. Yes we bombed some underground facilities. Did we eliminate the enriched materials or their stock of centrifuges? There's no way to know without on-site inspection. At best we probably delayed them for a period of time, but the threat hasn't been eliminated. Now Iran is incentivized to proceed with the assembly of more than one nuclear weapon. I suppose we'll find out the truth during their first live test.

[Gromnir]

from the nyt article linked above:

"But there was also evidence, according to two Israeli officials with knowledge of the intelligence, that Iran had moved equipment and uranium from the site in recent days. And there was growing evidence that the Iranians, attuned to Mr. Trump’s repeated threats to take military action, had removed 400 kilograms, or roughly 880 pounds, of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity. That is just below the 90 percent that is usually used in nuclear weapons."

from the cnn article linked:

But unlike the other two Iranian facilities targeted in the operation, B-2 bombers did not drop massive “bunker-buster” bombs on the Isfahan facility, multiple sources told CNN. The damage to the facility appears to be restricted to aboveground structures, according to Jeffrey Lewis, a weapons expert and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies who has closely reviewed commercial satellite imagery of the strike sites.

Even if the US was successful in destroying Iran’s facility at Fordow — another underground site that housed centrifuges needed to enrich uranium, which the US hit with 12 bunker busters — the obvious survival of Isfahan has raised questions about whether Trump achieved his stated goal of “a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s No. 1 state sponsor of terror.”

“This is an incomplete strike,” Lewis said. “If this is all there is, here’s what left: the entire stockpile of 60% uranium, which was stored at Isfahan in tunnels that are untouched.”

and as already mentioned, bushehr is functionally untargetable via military air strikes. 

on june 13, israel's espoused goal of eliminating iran's nuclear breakout capability as the goal o' attacks were unconvincing. less convincing today.

HA! Good Fun!

[HoonDing]

[Malcador]

Symbolic attack on Qatar by Iran. helps Raytheon's sales a bit, I guess.

[Gromnir]

warning: ordinary rogan sweary

 

the nuts part is that Gromnir is not surprised at all that clowns like rogan is shocked by the utter predictable outcomes we are seeing. this were the likely outcome when trump said he were gonna do mass deportations amounting to millions o' undocumented. math made the outcome inevitable. there were never that many criminals, so...

even so, if you only get your news from national conservative outlets, you would think la were under siege. 

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Zoraptor]

The important question* really is whether Trump thinks the US achieved its goals. He's perfectly capable of 'convincing himself'- or being stupid enough to believe- that he can destroy Iran's nuclear program after they'd had 9 days of prior bombing and in this specific case that brand of... self confidence, shall we say, may actually be a good thing.

While Iran now having a desire to make nukes is hardly a 'vibe' he has was notorious first term for acting on feelings and ignoring intelligence briefings. All his other big projects have been the same; just about everyone else says tariffs are dumb but he thinks they aren't etc. 

*well kind of, unfortunately, Israel doesn't really have any obvious reason to deescalate and without that Trump's unlikely to get the negotiations he really needs to proclaim victory. Which means Trump's, uh, Extraordinary Martial Endeavour will likely continue.

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Symbolic attack on Qatar by Iran. helps Raytheon's sales a bit, I guess.

Yeah, Qatar's the most pro Iran country in the region and they were aimed away from any of its own assets. Very little chance of any retaliation from the host.

And not quite as loaded as attacking the US base in Bahrain, where the small sunni minority rules over the shia majority at the point of saudi (and US) bayonets.

[Gromnir]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Symbolic attack on Qatar by Iran. helps Raytheon's sales a bit, I guess.

more significant is the fact oil dropped after the news that iran's response were symbolic.

...

am also gonna observe just how tepid has been the arab world's reaction to the israeli and US attacks. sure, there has been a performative UN theatre, but am certain iran noticed just how meek and measured has been the outrage from other nations in the region. heck, a nyc candidate for mayor were more vocal supportive o' global intafada than has the arab world post 13 june.

again, am so not in favor o' what increasing looks like an israeli effort to bring about regime change, but am suspecting they see @HoonDingrecent post and are barely able to suppress an evil grin o' agreement, if for complete different motives. these attacks were never about ending the iranian breakout capability. as such, it is looking like bush's mission accomplished is almost having been achieved by israel. 

the history o' regime change in the region does not suggest a more stable and safe outcome. hamas, syria and hezbollah has already been knee-capped and while the US may have blundered in its efforts to neuter the houthis, by our admitted inexpert estimation, iran on 12 june were weaker and less a threat than at any time in recent decades. so seeing as how the iranian nuclear threat has most certain not been eliminated, mission accomplished, where the real goal is to get vengeance on iran for its involvement in october 7, is maybe close to having been achieved?

am suspecting israel is satisfied with mission accomplished, but the potential for regional chaos is more or less than were the case before the israeli attacks?

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Zoraptor]

A ceasefire neither side seems to know about?

Seems too good to be true. Thankfully it's from the same guy who brought peace to Ukraine after 24 hours, so we know he has credibility.

7 hours ago, HoonDing said:

"You know, HoonDing predicted all of this!" -- Bobby Baccalieri

[Malcador]

Looks like the usual "let's kill people while we can" approach to ceasefires.

[Zoraptor]

Gotta get the last word missile in.

Iran at least seems to have acknowledged the ceasefire announcement now. Whoever briefs Trump better leave out precisely how they phrased the acknowledgement though.

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Looks like the usual "let's kill people while we can" approach to ceasefires.

The achievable Israeli objective was Iran abandoning its nuclear program

This war became the predictable example of a deluge of fake news and SM hyperbole made worse by Trumps inconsistent Truth ramblings and Irans grandstanding but this objective can be reached through a ceasefire agreement, its the only realistic way to do this 

It was never about regime change or a US\Israeli land invasion

So the real question if the ceasefire holds is will Iran abandon it nuclear program and I assume only the IAEA will be able to monitor this 

But if nothing changes around Irans nuclear program then the Israeli military campaign was a failure 

I cant imagine why Iran wouldnt agree, they are completely vulnerable to future airstrikes and this gives them an opportunity to save face without  the war dragging on  

 

 

[BruceVC]

So it doesnt appear Iran ever agreed to a  ceasefire, Trump really got this one badly wrong 

 

 

[Malcador]

Such power 

 

[Gromnir]

not to let trump off the hook, (am not) but israel has gutted iran command & control. chaos. am suspecting there is a whole lotta people in the iranian military who are acting independent during a time o' crisis, and unlike in the US, iranian military commanders has far less experience acting solo. any sorta expectation that iran is even capable of adhering to a ceasefire w/o at least some kinda delay is suspect given what israel has been doing to the military command structure o' iran for the past week. 

unlike others, Gromnir hesitates before opining in these situations, particular given trump's habitual mendacity. however, am admitting that even if iran did agree to a ceasefire, there would be some kinda initial period o' time during which they would have difficulty communicating that fact meaningful to the people capable o' sending missiles to israel... and both trump and israel should be aware o' that reality.

HA! Good Fun!

ps we spoke with somebody yesterday and it occurred to us that at least a few people don't know what is an Iranian centrifuge. the person we spoke with were under the impression a centrifuge is an enormous and complex device, and that person were not dumb. most iranian centrifuges is smallish-- 'bout 2 m high and 30 cm wide, with the older models being a bit more boxy. the newest iranian centrifuges is more than 4 m in height and 40 cm wide, but they had very few o' those. an individual iranian centrifuge, even the good ones, is incapable o' enriching much uranium over the course o' a year, so iran needs a whole lotta them if they wish to make more enriched uranium. the thing is, as noted, the centrifuges individually ain't that big and they ain't that difficult for iran to manufacture. you don't need an enormous facility to house and maintain the centrifuges, particular if you are making an effort to hide 'em. regardless, there ain't no way to prevent replacement centrifuges from being constructed, and it wouldn't be impossible to hide a whole bunch o' working centrifuges if that were your goal. 

Edited yesterday at 04:34 PM by Gromnir

[rjshae]

10 hours ago, BruceVC said:

So the real question if the ceasefire holds is will Iran abandon it nuclear program and I assume only the IAEA will be able to monitor this 

But if nothing changes around Irans nuclear program then the Israeli military campaign was a failure 

I cant imagine why Iran wouldnt agree, they are completely vulnerable to future airstrikes and this gives them an opportunity to save face without  the war dragging on  

Iran hasn't played its trump card of shutting down the Straits of Hormuz yet, so I don't think they're desperate. If they still retain their 60% enriched uranium and most of their centrifuges, then it's possible they could build up to 5-8 nukes in as little as a year. Presumably that's why Israel went after their nuclear scientists; to try and prevent that outcome.

Iran's Nuclear Timetable: The Weapon Potential (2025)

[Malcador]

Rutte shows how to work Trump

 

 

[Malcador]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites

"The analysis of the damage to the sites and the impact of the strikes on Iran’s nuclear ambitions is ongoing, and could change as more intelligence becomes available. But the early findings are at odds with President Donald Trump’s repeated claims that the strikes “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also said on Sunday that Iran’s nuclear ambitions “have been obliterated.” "