Ukraine Conflict - In the grim darkness of the near future, there is only war!

[Malcador]

Ukraine launched a large barrage today, not sure of damage done.  I guess the timing is political though, gotta show for the Americans.

 

[BruceVC]

10 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

I'll never not be amused by media rewriting history to suit their own narrative. Another of the perpetual 'this time it is different!'s is an extra bonus.

Slovakia's government was stridently anti-Russian up until 30 September, 2023. Which is roughly 18 months into the war, and definitively not three years ago as Politico claims. Even the most basic of backgrounding could have found this out, if one didn't already know. But while the previous government was fine with giving away S-300 and MiG-29s they were not all that keen on turning off the spigot gas wise either, since one of the reasons for their collapse was inflation/ cost of living. It is after all not just a matter of having alternative sources like, lol, Azerbaijan* but them not being expensive. It's very easy to claim it's 'just' an extra 10%, when you're an EU bureaucrat with a property portfolio and on 500k a year. And when you pretend that that 10% rise doesn't compound since so much relies on gas.

Orban isn't pro Russian. If he were he'd have vetoed stuff, irrevocably. He's entirely transactional- which is probably why Trump seems to love him so much. Blocking sanctions gets his country lots of concessions, no different to how the UK used to operate or how Denmark got concessions to finesse the EU's loss in its referendum. Similarly to the Brits, it really really annoys the federalist executive side of the EU that wants to rule by decree. 

*always hilarious to see Ursula and pals fanboying over Aliyev, who is everything they accuse Putin of being. As always, if the EU didn't have double standards they wouldn't have standards at all. And, of course, they largely sell rebranded Russian gas. When the EU isn't buying Russian LNG directly and (technically correct!) claiming it isn't gas.

Its not really about who is pro-Russian because that is debatable and subjective . But both Hungary and Slovakia are considered pro-Russian and they always the ones who argue about additional EU sanctions  or who are opposed to them 

This is about removing any dependency on Russia for energy because then the EU isnt contributing towards its revenue stream and the war in Ukraine 

But this takes time, you cant just cut energy sources until you have alternative markets and both Hungary and Slovakia do have alternative energy sources but they have ignored investing in them. So now the EU is acting 

https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-slovakia-quit-russia-energy-crea-report/

"Hungary and Slovakia show no real signs of decoupling from Russian crude despite the EU legal text stating this was the exemption’s purpose," the researchers conclude. "Hungary increased its Russian crude reliance from 61% pre-invasion to 86% in 2024, and Slovakia remained almost 100% dependent on supply from Moscow.”

The assessment comes at a pivotal moment for both countries, with the EU preparing proposals to fully sever all Russian energy links. Hungary and Slovakia have lashed out at the move, insisting it will raise prices for consumers and imperil both countries’ energy access.

The study insists the countries' arguments don't hold up. It says both countries can import non-Russian oil from Croatia via the Adria pipeline. And it notes that Hungary's MOL energy company has the capability to refine crude brought in from elsewhere. Meanwhile, an abundance of natural gas from countries like the U.S. and Qatar is available on the Central European market.

The continued import of Russian oil and gas into Hungary and Slovakia is not the result of technical or infrastructural constraints," said Martin Vladimirov, director of the Energy and Climate Program at the Center for the Study of Democracy. "It is the product of a deeply entrenched network of intermediaries and offshore trading structures that have enabled Russian companies to maintain their grip on Hungary’s energy sector — and profit handsomely in the process.”

Both countries can still import oil because of sanctions exemptions granted in 2022. The carve-outs were meant to give the landlocked nations time to find alternative energy suppliers. But Budapest and Bratislava have instead lobbied for continued access to Russian fuel, while earning hundreds of millions via the loopholes. "

 

 

 

[Malcador]

Looks like more sanctions on Russia

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0290

Aside, lol at the "radical left" crap on the top of the page.

[Lexx]

lolol radical left. Trump is in charge of everything, is he the radical left now?

What a ****ing post-truth nazi state. 

[BruceVC]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/medvedev-says-trumps-actions-are-like-an-act-war-against-russia-2025-10-23/

Man the Russians are really butthurt about the latest US sanctions, the dream of Rusmerica really is over

" Trump, who has described Russia as a "paper tiger", said on Wednesday he had canceled a planned summit with Putin, and the U.S. Treasury slapped sanctions on two of Russia's biggest oil companies.

"The United States is our adversary, and their talkative 'peacemaker' has now fully embarked on the warpath with Russia," Medvedev, who serves as deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, wrote on Telegram, referring to Trump.

"The decisions taken are an act of war against Russia. And now Trump has fully aligned himself with loony Europe."

 

[Malcador]

Not sure you can read much into Medvedev's rage posting all that much.  And with Trump,  stuff is great once you don't look too closely at it.  

[Zoraptor]

You can't read anything into Medvedev. Five years ago it would have been Zhirinovsky making the exact same sort of post.

It's partly to rally (nationalist) Russians but mostly to make sure everyone knows that (or 'knows', more accurately, since it's definitely in large part performative) Putin is a moderate compared to the alternatives.

[BruceVC]

This is a particularly interesting analysis of the reality of the Indian and Chinese unbalanced relationship with Russia and how unhelpful it has now become for Russia on many levels but especially oil sales and Chinese investments into Russia . Its only 10 minutes and worth listening to for those still interested in this war but I think @Malcador and @Zoraptorwould appreciate it 

 

 

[Zoraptor]

Not going to bother a couple of days after the Ukrainians complained that China was shutting them- and suppliers in Poland and the Baltics- off from buying drone parts, which is (or would be, since there doesn't seem to be anything official just the Ukrainian complaints) probably the most effective sanction package of the whole war. Not that there's much competition there.

As a general comment, the quality of analysis is utterly appalling. If I had a dollar for every time I read a hyperbolic headline of imminent victory/ doom/ economic implosion or whatever over the past 11 (!) years I'd be able to buy Larry Ellison out of Oracle with some spare change for Elon and Mark. Very far from all from the David Axes and Hamish de Bretton-Gordons (or Dimitri Medvedevs) of the world either; we've had supposedly reputable organisations complaining about pro Russian plant growth and the like.