Ukraine Conflict - In the grim darkness of the near future, there is only war!

[kanisatha]

7 hours ago, BruceVC said:

I dont see this being accepted by Russia

The 2 main sticking points that Ukraine should agree to is not to join NATO, but it can join  the EU, and the Donbas will stay Russian. Im not sure it means international recognition  but you freeze the war on current gains. Its not ideal and Ukraine loses 20% of its country but at least the war ends, thats what compromise is about and its always hard 

Just like what Putin is doing, so too the Ukrainian side needs to start out with maximalist positions on their demands. That's how you end up with things you can "give up" as trade-off concessions. It's a typical negotiating strategy.

[Mamoulian War]

Ukrainians put over time without being detected explosives worth of 1100kg of TNT near one of the pillars at Kerch Bridge and have blown it up today, causing serious structural damage.

Also it is said, that Colonel General Sergei Kobylash, commander of russian aviation forces has succumbed to acute out-of-windowtidis epidemic now ravaging Moscow.

[Malcador]

4 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Also it is said, that Colonel General Sergei Kobylash, commander of russian aviation forces has succumbed to acute out-of-windowtidis epidemic now ravaging Moscow

Seems said by randos on Twitter, at least so far. Wouldn't be surprised to see Igor is the source.

[Mamoulian War]

29 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Seems said by randos on Twitter, at least so far. Wouldn't be surprised to see Igor is the source.

We’ll see, I am busy last two days at work, so I was not able to 100% fakeproof it, but seen it from few sources so far. But as you said, might be possible that my sources got it from the same unverified source. Gerasimov died at least 25 times so far as well

[Gorgon]

On 6/2/2025 at 4:34 AM, Malcador said:

 

Took out 30 strategic bombers. It's quite unprecedented. They hit the Crimean bridge again today too.

[Sarex]

1 hour ago, Gorgon said:

Took out 30 strategic bombers. It's quite unprecedented. They hit the Crimean bridge again today too.

Wasn't it 50?

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, Sarex said:

Wasn't it 50?

Nope they said 41 planes in total, out of which it is supposedly 30 strategic bombers and 2 AWACS. Other planes like IL-76 was hit as well.

first satellite pictures of Belaya airfield (I think it is the Irkutsk one) show 12 destroyed planes there. And they hit 4 airfields (attack on 5th Amur was unsuccessful). So the total number is pretty plaussible.

 

 

[Malcador]

Thought the initial claim was 40

[rjshae]

3 hours ago, Gorgon said:

Took out 30 strategic bombers. It's quite unprecedented. They hit the Crimean bridge again today too.

Targeting strategic bridges seems like an efficient form of asymmetrical warfare, if Ukraine is looking to further disrupt the Russian economy. Bridges are expensive to put up (as are strategic bombers).

[rjshae]

5 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Ukrainians put over time without being detected explosives worth of 1100kg of TNT near one of the pillars at Kerch Bridge and have blown it up today, causing serious structural damage.

I'd read it was an underwater explosion, which should be more effective if done right. Yet the bridge is apparently still standing.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, rjshae said:

I'd read it was an underwater explosion, which should be more effective if done right. Yet the bridge is apparently still standing.

Yes, still standing, although still remembering a little bit of basics of kinetics and dynamics from school, I would think a lot before setting foot on it, even if it looked intact.

[Zoraptor]

Kerch Bridge has some unique design features that ought to protect it. 50+ meter pilings, and they aren't traditional pilings but multiple small diameter ones designed specifically to transit applied energy. Mostly from earthquakes, but the principle for explosives is the same; and you'd suspect it was designed with the thought that Ukraine might try to blow it up at some point.

5 hours ago, Malcador said:

Thought the initial claim was 40

41 initially? Pro UA sources have managed to find 12 on satellite, and they certainly have been trying. 

Also rather a lot of- frankly pretty obvious- AI videos being laundered at the moment. One in particular the 'bomber' hit has the fascinating design innovation of having two cabins, there's another one where the 'bomber' has 2 engines on one wing and one on the other and all 'shot' at a resolution that would embarrass a cheap late 90s nokia. DCS/ WarThunder etc are not under threat yet when it comes to fake footage.

Edited June 4 by Zoraptor

[Malcador]

At least no Tu-160s are lost, plane is too pretty for war, really.

[Malcador]

The A-50s are missing engines it seems

[Mamoulian War]

The fact, that Russia and all of their propagandists are absolutely silent, should be proof enough, that it was definitely more than 12 airframes damaged and destroyed. Some of the airfields have not been assessed neither by Osint nor by any state services outside the Uk. We’ll now for sure soon. But as it was shown on the Boeing photos acquired by RFERL journalists, they counted only in Irkutsk 12 airframes down. As a bonus, a lot of damaged/destroyed airframes have been fully loaded by cruise missiles for more of civilian targeting, which makes the attack even more damaging to Russian air force despite some russian propaganda trying to bellitle this achievement.

 

[HoonDing]

Just imagine all the fun things that would happen on US soil if Drump invaded Mexico or Canada

[Malcador]

4 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

The fact, that Russia and all of their propagandists are absolutely silent, should be proof enough, that it was definitely more than 12 airframes damaged and destroyed.

Disagree that that is proof of anything, but they've not been silent, unless you count silence as saying nothing at all happened.  Most of the Russian OSINT types admit it happened and are going with the 12-14 aircraft lost or just going with what has been confirmed.   Some of the damage assessment videos are a bit amusing in how a couple of pixels will become an oil slick or something thus indicating a knocked out aircraft.  I guess we'll never really get an accurate total unless the Russians decides to share it. 

 

 

  

 

 

[Malcador]

 

[Sarex]

What would a response even look like and how would you even recognize it in the middle of all of this...

They should have built hangars. Even non concrete hangars would have prevented this and it's not they weren't warned more than a year ago. But I guess tires are enough.

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

Disagree that that is proof of anything, but they've not been silent, unless you count silence as saying nothing at all happened.  Most of the Russian OSINT types admit it happened and are going with the 12-14 aircraft lost or just going with what has been confirmed.   Some of the damage assessment videos are a bit amusing in how a couple of pixels will become an oil slick or something thus indicating a knocked out aircraft.  I guess we'll never really get an accurate total unless the Russians decides to share it. 

 

 

  

 

 

From what I read today, there are some Russian sources, which are talking about 18 airframes gone.

This video alone has footage of 21 airframes attacked. Have not seen the one you posted before due to time constraints, so sorry if I repost the same stuff. And today there have been some talk, that on the night of June 1st before Istanbul talk, Russia planned to use these planes to attack Ukraine again, to pressure them to surrender. That should explain, why a lot of these airframes been fully tanked and loaded with Kh-101 missiles. But as always, I have no clue if this is true, or just psyops. Also news around Trump today are pure chaos. Some say, he knew, some say he did not knew, some say the call with Putin means UA will be punished again, some says Trump was impressed by the havoc UA rained upon RU. There will be pure chaos in the information scene for few weeks for sure, making the chance to spot the real stuff in all of the pysops ****ing impossible. Which on the other hand also shows, that the attack (whatever the outcome was) was a hugely successful operation.

 

 

[Malcador]

50 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

And today there have been some talk, that on the night of June 1st before Istanbul talk, Russia planned to use these planes to attack Ukraine again, to pressure them to surrender

I saw this, but the source was Sushko, who is a bull**** merchant really, but not sure if others.  Granted, they've been hitting Ukraine with missiles daily, not sure it being Operation Zeus Lightning or whatever matters. 

[Zoraptor]

Honestly man, youtube experts...

Yes, they'd want to be salvaging the radar domes off derelict/ mothballed A-50s for sure. Indeed, the one thing all operational A-50s have is a 1991 era radar. Makes perfect sense, there have been no tech improvements since then and everyone else is using 90s era radar.

Well no, the one thing all operational A-50s don't have is a 1991 radar. Radar emitters are cheap, it's the electronics that make them functional and which is expensive. The electronics in A-50Us is new since it's a full analogue/ digital switch and, well, as an illustration the top of the line consumer processor in 1991 was a 486SX. The spyware chip on AMD processors has more processing power than that.

Even if it wasn't, electronics from a plane which still has the soviet star on its tail are, well, as likely to be usable 34 years later as that 486SX is today. The one thing you can guarantee is any 'new' A-50 is going to have is new electronics/ radar not something stripped out of another one.

The radar itself might be useful for a decoy if it can still output radiation, but it isn't usable for its original purpose. 

2 hours ago, Sarex said:

They should have built hangars. Even non concrete hangars would have prevented this and it's not they weren't warned more than a year ago. But I guess tires are enough.

Or EW. That would probably be cheaper overall, and certainly faster to implement. Allegedly the main reason the attack failed on several bases too. Wouldn't be the least bit surprising if it was meant to be on all of them but the money had gone missing between order and supply. 

Tires are and always have been a weird idea. If you want to try and obfuscate the shape there are far better options and they're only going to confuse very basic systems. 

[rjshae]

20 hours ago, Malcador said:

 

No CAPS at all? Clear English writing with no rants? Are we supposed to believe that was written by DJT?

[ShadySands]

2 hours ago, rjshae said:

No CAPS at all? Clear English writing with no rants? Are we supposed to believe that was written by DJT?

Yeah, one of my first thoughts while reading it was wondering who wrote it

[Mamoulian War]

Another interesting turn of events today. There are reports (including russian one), that UA infiltrated a train In Zaporrizhzhia with drones, in a similar way, that they infiltrated the trucks few days ago. The results again from Russian sources are dozens of destroyed tanks and other armored vehicles, which were en route to supply the frontline. UA sources are saying 13 tanks and 100+ armored vehicles of various types.