Ukraine Conflict - continuing

[Gfted1]

Well they were probably nazi's too, so its all good. Probably.

[Zoraptor]

Quote

Pretty wild seeing Ukraine openly admitting to supporting terrorists rebels just to kill Russians.

Eh, not really. Per terrorism people tend to forget that Ukraine packed an unsuspecting Azeri's truck full of explosives and blew him up, which was terrorism unless you define it as only being done by bad people to good people*. Otherwise, they've already claimed direct support of the rebels in Syria before.

Which label is relevant depends on which Tuareg rebels it was. They had some genuine liberation types, but also got co-opted very hard by AQIM. And of course you can never be quite sure if they aren't the same people getting a 'brave patriot mujahedin fighting for freeeeedom <--> terrorist Al Qaeda oppressing and terrorising' switch via some TLA in Virginia whenever it's convenient.

*one would be forgiven for thinking that's the crucial part of the definition given the Russia/ Israel dichotomy in coverage. Just imagine the reaction if Russia tortured an orthopaedic surgeon to death but for Israel... just ignore it and applaud.

Edited July 29 by Zoraptor

[Mamoulian War]

These were part of Azawad rebels who are trying to get their independence from Mali.

[Malcador]

5 hours ago, HoonDing said:

Pretty wild seeing Ukraine openly admitting to supporting terrorists rebels just to kill Russians.

I guess they have manpower and resources to spare, too.

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

These were part of Azawad rebels who are trying to get their independence from Mali.

The real issue here is the primary justification for the military coups in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso was because of the failure of the Democratically governments to ensure security and stability from these Jihadist\Tribal groups that control parts of these countries  and there was this  bizarre view that somehow having the military running the country would solve the security failures 

But this type of insurgency is fuelled primarily  by poverty which encourages extremism and unless you change the economic reality of these countries you wont end the violence and these military Juntas are more unqualified and unlikely to achieve this than the previous governments

Same story as Somalia and Nigeria where the likes of Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram have been operating for decades in one form or another

Then going back to the likes of Niger and Mali you had all this sensationalized and anti-Western SM attention around French flags being burnt and when the French military  was kicked  out this was a  " significant " development because somehow " French Colonialism " was the reason for the economic and security failures 

And yet nothing has changed, the Russians and Wagner arent going to change anything because only  effective governments can change the reality of these countries and military Juntas wont deliver on this key requirement

Its a depressing future for these countries and there citizens 

 

[Mamoulian War]

According to this commentary, the situation after the departure of French deteriorated even more, due to the behaviour of Wagnerites and their low numbers.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mixed-picture-how-mali-views-wagner-group

And here is an insight into how things played out in Mali. To no one’s surprise the culprit behind spreading anti-french sentiment were Russian troll farms, and few guys, who emerged out of nowhere, with deep ties to Russia and their money, which in the end, staged the coup

https://hrf.org/russias-influence-in-mali/

52 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

The real issue here is the primary justification for the military coups in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso was because of the failure of the Democratically governments to ensure security and stability from these Jihadist\Tribal groups that control parts of these countries  and there was this  bizarre view that somehow having the military running the country would solve the security failures 

But this type of insurgency is fuelled primarily  by poverty which encourages extremism and unless you change the economic reality of these countries you wont end the violence and these military Juntas are more unqualified and unlikely to achieve this than the previous governments

Same story as Somalia and Nigeria where the likes of Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram have been operating for decades in one form or another

Then going back to the likes of Niger and Mali you had all this sensationalized and anti-Western SM attention around French flags being burnt and when the French military  was kicked  out this was a  " significant " development because somehow " French Colonialism " was the reason for the economic and security failures 

And yet nothing has changed, the Russians and Wagner arent going to change anything because only  effective governments can change the reality of these countries and military Juntas wont deliver on this key requirement

Its a depressing future for these countries and there citizens 

 

 

[BruceVC]

13 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

According to this commentary, the situation after the departure of French deteriorated even more, due to the behaviour of Wagnerites and their low numbers.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mixed-picture-how-mali-views-wagner-group

And here is an insight into how things played out in Mali. To no one’s surprise the culprit behind spreading anti-french sentiment were Russian troll farms, and few guys, who emerged out of nowhere, with deep ties to Russia and their money, which in the end, staged the coup

https://hrf.org/russias-influence-in-mali/

 

Yes I am not  denying Russian propaganda and how that contributed towards a certain narrative around the military coups. Thats what I mean by " French Colonialism " ending 

But that doesn't change the fundamental reason for  the insurgency and how the security situation isnt going to improve unless you change the economic reality in these countries  and thats not  going to  happen under these military Juntas 

The global SM attention we witnessed around French flags burning was  just theatre and propaganda, its got very little to do with the root cause of the  problems in these countries 

[Gorth]

Unless they are looking to build naval bases on Africas west coast, it’s hard to see how it would be worth the investment of resources for Russia. Propaganda? Prestige points? Ego boosting?
 

edit unless they’re trying to pull a “Xi” on the country and strip mine it before abandoning it again 

[HoonDing]

What's "It's all so tiresome" in Russian?

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

Unless they are looking to build naval bases on Africas west coast, it’s hard to see how it would be worth the investment of resources for Russia. Propaganda? Prestige points? Ego boosting?
 

edit unless they’re trying to pull a “Xi” on the country and strip mine it before abandoning it again 

They were getting minerals and other resources from Africa via Wagner, I believe.  Also I guess causing the West a headache is also fun.

These days though, seems every ill is Russia. My meat thermometer died due to SVR interference.

Edited July 30 by Malcador

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

Unless they are looking to build naval bases on Africas west coast, it’s hard to see how it would be worth the investment of resources for Russia. Propaganda? Prestige points? Ego boosting?
 

edit unless they’re trying to pull a “Xi” on the country and strip mine it before abandoning it again 

Wagner gets  paid money as mercenaries  and they have numerous  contracts  in Africa 

And sometimes its  about mineral  rights concession which sometimes benefits  Russia directly 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/17/what-is-the-wagner-groups-role-in-sudan

And either way its  about reestablishing a Russian  presence in Africa in unstable countries that have  minerals  and other resources

But you wont find them in stable  African that provide there own security 

[Malcador]

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2024/07/27/alexander-stubb-president-finlandais-a-propos-de-la-guerre-en-ukraine-nous-arrivons-a-un-point-ou-les-negociations-doivent-commencer_6259403_3210.html

Seems like the negotiations discussed here would be pointless

Edited July 30 by Malcador

[Mamoulian War]

4 hours ago, Gorth said:

Unless they are looking to build naval bases on Africas west coast, it’s hard to see how it would be worth the investment of resources for Russia. Propaganda? Prestige points? Ego boosting?
 

edit unless they’re trying to pull a “Xi” on the country and strip mine it before abandoning it again 

In Mali it is about two or three Gold Mines, which Wagner/Russia directly controls.

[Zoraptor]

5 hours ago, Gorth said:

Unless they are looking to build naval bases on Africas west coast, it’s hard to see how it would be worth the investment of resources for Russia. Propaganda? Prestige points? Ego boosting?

Somehow I doubt any influence in Mali is about naval bases. While they have hardly covered themselves in glory it seems likely that the Russian Navy knows Mali has no coastline.

As for why you can ask the same of France and the answer is likely to be the same with a couple of variations. Because they can, and it doesn't cost them anything much*. The addition for France is the historical colonial ties with a dollop of paternalism and not wanting problems in more important places like Niger; for Russia it's causing embarrassment to France and Macron in particular.

*the far more large scale intervention in Syria cost Russia next to nothing as the budget all came from training, they just blew up moderate democratic puppy orphanages sheltering in the last bakery of a Leppo/ religious nutbar cannibals and child beheaders instead of training areas in X oblast with almost exclusively old dumb bombs (albeit using a semi precise launch system). Probably cost the French a bit more, but not much, and it wouldn't be surprising if what it did cost came out of a development budget.

Quote

edit unless they’re trying to pull a “Xi” on the country and strip mine it before abandoning it again 

Heh, I think it's time to pull out the old Wall Street Journal article on the IMF and Zaire (as was) again. Sadly, they've finally got around to paywalling it by the looks of things but the gist is that every single IMF intervention left Zaire materially worse off, not better.

Or as one person put it, the difference between Chinese and Western development loans is that at least with China you actually get the roads.

[Malcador]

 

[Zoraptor]

Not overly surprising given the nature of the 'evidence' for Ukrainian SF presence in Syria previous. Al Qaeda has of course claimed it, but they would happily claim pretty much anything and everything nowadays*. It's still most likely to be some flavour of MNLA or other Azawad Nationalist grouping responsible given those groups are hardly monolithic and are variously fighting against and allied with Al Qaeda and adjacent groups. It's very likely some at least are both Azawad liberation and AlQ, just wearing different hats as convenient. Difficult to see any plausible involvement from any 3rd party country in it.

*apparently they launched an Inghimasi operation that broke a meat thermometer recently.

Edited July 30 by Zoraptor

[kanisatha]

On 7/29/2024 at 7:23 PM, Mamoulian War said:

These were part of Azawad rebels who are trying to get their independence from Mali.

Yup. One of the many forgotten conflicts around the world (because only the Palestinians matter).

[kanisatha]

23 hours ago, Gorth said:

Unless they are looking to build naval bases on Africas west coast, it’s hard to see how it would be worth the investment of resources for Russia. Propaganda? Prestige points? Ego boosting?

It is indeed prestige, plus "influence."

It is about Russia reestablishing itself as one of the great powers of the world, given that many (especially politicians here in the US) have questioned or challenged Russia's great power status.

[BruceVC]

27 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Yup. One of the many forgotten conflicts around the world (because only the Palestinians matter).

Yes  and thats the strange thing about the insurgency and wars  in  Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso and the temporary global "attention " it received 

Most people dont know anything about these countries or the conflicts  and they considered some of the most poorest and underdeveloped countries in Africa. But  suddenly French flags get burnt and the French military leave  and  Russian and anti-Western SM propaganda creates interest for a week or 2 and then people move on

Yet the insurgencies have been going on since 2012 and only with the French leaving did it create any temporary  interest or activism. Its an example of the misplaced and fleeting  interest that SM creates and encourages

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamist_insurgency_in_the_Sahel

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

Yup. One of the many forgotten conflicts around the world (because only the Palestinians matter).

The world moved on from that well before the Hamas attacks and the Israeli invasion though. 

[pmp10]

First F-16s have finally been delivered to Ukraine.
For now they are supposed to be few in number.

[Malcador]

 

[Zoraptor]

Well, it seems Ukraine wasn't involved in the attack in Mali now. Likely has very little to do with Mali severing ties, but more with Kuleba going to Africa on a trip and likely even more Senegal summoning their ambassador to complain. Senegal if of course still actively part of ECOWAS etc and not appreciably Russian aligned, but is effected by Touareg rebels as well.

We also got this gem out of it...

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Ukraine on Monday condemned Mali's decision to cut diplomatic ties as short-sighted and hasty, saying that no evidence had been provided to show Kyiv had played any role in fighting that killed Malian soldiers and Russian mercenaries last month.

per Reuters. I wonder who they got that idea too.

Quote

Andrii Yusov, spokesman for Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, said on the national 24/7 newscast on 29 July that "the rebels received necessary information, which enabled a successful military operation against Russian war criminals," adding that Defence Intelligence "won’t discuss the details at the moment, but there will be more to come".

per PravdaUA. Oh, so that's who they got the idea from.

[Mamoulian War]

Oh noes, war criminals who have on their hands countless of civilian casualties have been eliminated in a country, which provides them safe harbour, and using them for killing civilians at home as well. What a disgraceful violation of the “world order” that Putin talking so much about

[Malcador]

Rules apply to those we like I guess.

Good luck to Ukraine getting the Global South on side for the next joke of a peace summit. Although who knows, maybe battlefield will have changed more by November.