Ukraine Conflict - continuing

[Elerond]

Article 5, does not come with written obligations, but country that fails to help in defense of another member state can as well leave the alliance, because they will most likely never themself receive aid in case they are attacked.

[BruceVC]

6 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Article 5, does not come with written obligations, but country that fails to help in defense of another member state can as well leave the alliance, because they will most likely never themself receive aid in case they are attacked.

Also its not hard to imagine how NATO would implement article 5 

Lets say Ukraine was part of NATO before the invasion in 2022, a NATO military missions would be initiated  to fight within the borders of Ukraine

It doesnt mean they would need to attack Russia itself but they could and would engage with the Russian military forces involved in the invasion

And that same strategy can be adopted if any member  country is attacked, NATO already has a military presence and resources  in the EU and a track record of military missions

I dont see why its so difficult to imagine them supporting article 5 and it also doesn't mean nukes would be the outcome especially if a county like Russia invades any NATO member like it did with Ukraine?

 

[kanisatha]

12 hours ago, pmp10 said:

But Article 5 comes with no obligation.

Well, not quite. The entire Atlantic Charter is an international treaty, and as such, if a state has "ratified" it, then they do have a legal obligation under international law to abide by its requirements. However, because it is international law, yes, there are no mechanisms available that can be used to overrule state sovereignty and compel a state to do so.

In the case of the U.S., however, things are different. Per our Constitution, once the Senate has ratified a treaty, that treaty then becomes U.S. federal law. And the president is oath-sworn to uphold all federal laws. So a president can be impeached for not following through on Atlantic Charter Article 5 obligations. This is why Trump would want to withdraw us from NATO.

Also @BruceVC, FYI, Article 5 has been activated once. It happened a few days after 9/11, and resulted in NATO AWACS aircraft flying patrols over NYC and DC. Subsequently, NATO's participation in the Afghanistan war was legally handled under that Article 5 activation, which was precisely why some NATO members like Germany agreed to join the NATO force there.

[Mamoulian War]

Ukraine has eliminated in Crimea war criminal, who has ordered a cruise missile attack on Vinnytsia city center, killing 29 civilians (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/14/7358046/).

He was also responsible for periodical attacks on Ukrainian cities by cruise missiles launched from Black Sea.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/11/13/7484248/

 

[pmp10]

It seems winter missile strikes are already starting.
Ukrainian electrical grid is already badly strained so this could become a serious problem.

That said, Russia can't exactly blow up nuclear power plants and winter was forecasted to be mild. 

[Sarex]

So it looks like Biden wants to force Trumps hand in the conflict by escalating it. Wonder if the Russians escalate on their end or wait for Trump.

[Elerond]

Didn't Russia already escalate conflict by striking with over 100 missiles against Ukraine's powerplants yesterday? As it was one of the their largest strikes and its timing also isn't coincidental or promising de-escalation anytime soon.

[Malcador]

Seems more like business as usual rather than escalation to launch missiles.

[Zoraptor]

3 hours ago, Sarex said:

So it looks like Biden wants to force Trumps hand in the conflict by escalating it. Wonder if the Russians escalate on their end or wait for Trump.

Give Iran (more) S400s, or maybe the Houthis have a breakthrough and develop some Qalat-P or P-800 Eaqiq Yumani anti ship systems?

Or most likely nothing, this was an obvious post election play whatever the result, and has been baked into Russian thinking for months.

[Malcador]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-atacms-missiles.html

Some restrictions apply, still.