Ukraine Conflict - continuing

[Lexx]

Damn, there are a couple more that could have exploded. What a shame.

[pmp10]

In somewhat related news:

More rumors are surfacing that Russia is considering arming the Houthis.
Likely still far from a done deal, but it's a good indication that Russian escalation options are more than just nukes.

[Zoraptor]

9 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/zelenskyy-russia-chinese-satellites-photograph-nuclear-plants-ahead/story?id=113943075

Skeptical of this, but we're back to fears of poisoning Europe with radiation as a concern.   Interested to see what Zelensky's victory plan is, probably will be aspirational stuff.

Skeptical? Haven't read that article in particular but the one I did read was embarrassing and assumed everyone reading it was an idiot. Russia has no reason to use Chinese spy satellites, and all the Ukrainian NPPs are soviet designs so they have the blueprints. What Russia will almost certainly do is hit the grid around the NPPs since they're about the only bulk generation Ukraine has left at this point, which Zelensky will then claim as a nuclear attack.

Zelensky's victory plan is almost certainly to get approval to hit military targets inside Russia with NATO weapons- and then hit the Kremlin with them to provoke a response that gets NATO directly involved. That's about the only path to victory Ukraine has.

Edited September 25 by Zoraptor

[Gorth]

Make of that what you want…

Sounds like a slight doctrine change (like a version of the Truman doctrine)

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yjej0rvw0o

[Zoraptor]

I'm not even sure that's a genuine change at all, as opposed to clarifying already existing policy.

It's not like in an attack by NATO but with no overt US/ UK/ French involvement you could rules lawyer Russia out of a nuclear response based on the attackers being 'non nuclear' and only supported by the nuclear ones with or without the change. Haha you can't take blood hi-5 haha gottem might work in the Merchant of Venice; not so much in geopolitics.

Even if it were a shift they'd still be a degree or two shy of, well, existing US policy. That despite Biden making a 2020 election pledge to change it.

[HoonDing]

Guess they won't "win" before Drump Returns. 

[Malcador]

16 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Skeptical? Haven't read that article in particular but the one I did read was embarrassing and assumed everyone reading it was an idiot. Russia has no reason to use Chinese spy satellites, and all the Ukrainian NPPs are soviet designs so they have the blueprints. What Russia will almost certainly do is hit the grid around the NPPs since they're about the only bulk generation Ukraine has left at this point, which Zelensky will then claim as a nuclear attack.

Zelensky's victory plan is almost certainly to get approval to hit military targets inside Russia with NATO weapons- and then hit the Kremlin with them to provoke a response that gets NATO directly involved. That's about the only path to victory Ukraine has.

Well, was trying to be charitable to him.  You'd think this scare tactic stuff would end, I get they want to draw NATO in as that is an "I win" button, though.

[pmp10]

So after Zelensky's victory plan was ignored in the west it has finally come to nukes.
"We need NATO or nukes … and we want NATO"

He will likely be forced to retract that soon, but this might be a sign that he is finally starting to get it. 

 

[Malcador]

I guess they're trying to blackmail the West this way

[Malcador]

https://news.liga.net/en/politics/news/zelenskyy-we-have-never-said-we-were-preparing-to-build-nuclear-weapons

""Sometimes we create problems for ourselves, and you're starting to do that now. We have never said we were preparing to build nuclear weapons," Zelenskyy responded."

Was amusing to see how many people were cheering on the idea of them getting a nuclear weapon.  Wonder if they did nuke Russia or Russian troops, what response from Russia would the US deem acceptable.

[Zoraptor]

Whatever the US said they'd know it would be largely irrelevant. Ukraine using a nuke would be an immense and immediate geopolitical loss for the west and they couldn't say anything to ameliorate the Russian response.

[Malcador]

So Russia dressing up DPRK troops as Russian soldiers.  Interesting escalation of sorts, maybe ROK will send Ukraine some free stuff ?

[rjshae]

On 10/18/2024 at 7:35 AM, Malcador said:

https://news.liga.net/en/politics/news/zelenskyy-we-have-never-said-we-were-preparing-to-build-nuclear-weapons

""Sometimes we create problems for ourselves, and you're starting to do that now. We have never said we were preparing to build nuclear weapons," Zelenskyy responded."

Was amusing to see how many people were cheering on the idea of them getting a nuclear weapon.  Wonder if they did nuke Russia or Russian troops, what response from Russia would the US deem acceptable.

Possibly he's referring to radiological weapons. That wouldn't take long to assemble, and might be used as a weapon of last resort.

[Zoraptor]

By context (below, direct quote from his speech to the European Council summit) he was referring to (a) fully fledged nuke(s) rather than a 'dirty bomb' type weapon; though practically a radiological bomb seems more likely to be what was actually delivered. Unless they went the South African route and bought them off Israel.

Quote

“Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons and that will be our protection or we should have some sort of alliance. Apart from NATO, today we do not know any effective alliances."

though as is often the case with these situations he also said:

Quote

"That is why we choose NATO. Not nuclear weapons"

which made it fairly clear it was at least not an active policy.

[BruceVC]

On 10/18/2024 at 9:54 PM, Malcador said:

So Russia dressing up DPRK troops as Russian soldiers.  Interesting escalation of sorts, maybe ROK will send Ukraine some free stuff ?

Its not really  a surprise,  with the  massive amount of troops and resources that Russia has lost in Ukraine it was almost inevitable 

We  already know about the military aid countries like Iran and NK are providing Russia for the same reason but Russia has a serious manpower issue. The Russian casualties are clearly much higher than we have been told and Russian\Vatnik propaganda reports on 

Surly Western\NATO can send troops for the same reasons but I doubt they will because troops on the ground are different to military advisors and you wont find NATO consensus for that?

 

[Zoraptor]

Things you aren't meant to remember for today: 40,000 Syrians registered to join Russian forces in 2022. Of course, there are still and always have been more Syrians fighting for Ukraine to this day than fighting against it.

Bonus, just for Bruce as commiseration for the cricket result:

Quote

"At the end of the war in Ukraine, whatever it looks like, the Russian army will be stronger than it is today"

Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, 20 October 2024. Utterly pro Ukrainian sourcing too. So, desperate enough to need North Koreans, yet simultaneously stronger than ever... as always.

Given the way the war has been it's far more likely that the Koreans would be learning/ observing drone warfare stuff than having any direct involvement.

[BruceVC]

10 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Things you aren't meant to remember for today: 40,000 Syrians registered to join Russian forces in 2022. Of course, there are still and always have been more Syrians fighting for Ukraine to this day than fighting against it.

Bonus, just for Bruce as commiseration for the cricket result:

Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, 20 October 2024. Utterly pro Ukrainian sourcing too. So, desperate enough to need North Koreans, yet simultaneously stronger than ever... as always.

Given the way the war has been it's far more likely that the Koreans would be learning/ observing drone warfare stuff than having any direct involvement.

Im not sure what your point is? Are you saying that Russia doesnt have military resource and manpower shortages and they not getting these resources from the likes of Iran and NK?

Or  are you saying they are  accepting NK boots on the ground but its not because of manpower shortages?

Or are you saying something else ?

 

[Lexx]

I believe what was meant with "stronger than ever" is that russia will have (probably) learned from their mistakes and train different / with more modern hardware, thus naturally will be stronger than in the beginning of the Ukraine war where they failed in literally every category.

[Mamoulian War]

The most likely reason to deploy DPRK soldiers now, is neither manpower shortage, nor improving attack capabilities, as 12k soldiers will prolong the war by approx 10 days, with current RU casualties, but both RU and DPRK expect to get a response from US, which would give Trump new “ammo” to his campaign. The thing, that no one speaks about DPRK soldiers outside of UA and ROK, makes this argument more plausible. Everyone else is waiting for US elections.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

I believe what was meant with "stronger than ever" is that russia will have (probably) learned from their mistakes and train different / with more modern hardware, thus naturally will be stronger than in the beginning of the Ukraine war where they failed in literally every category.

Yes that part I understood but this debate was about NK soldiers being deployed to the current arena in Ukraine and why would Russia need NK soldiers if they had no manpower shortages?

We will never know the truth because we  will never get confirmation about real Russian losses and its impact on the battlefield

 

 

[BruceVC]

37 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

The most likely reason to deploy DPRK soldiers now, is neither manpower shortage, nor improving attack capabilities, as 12k soldiers will prolong the war by approx 10 days, with current RU casualties, but both RU and DPRK expect to get a response from US, which would give Trump new “ammo” to his campaign. The thing, that no one speaks about DPRK soldiers outside of UA and ROK, makes this argument more plausible. Everyone else is waiting for US elections.

Im not with you, why would NK soldiers being deployed to Ukraine be about the US response after the election irrespective of who wins ?

If Harris wins US aid will continue in the same way, if Trump wins he will try to create a peace deal by offering a carrot or stick for both countries 

Im not getting how NK soldiers fit into this?

 

[Zoraptor]

Nobody outside ROK and Ukraine are talking about the North Koreans for multiple reasons- but mostly because at this point they exist as much as the 40k Syrians from 2022 did. ie there may be some there (definitely been some Syrians soldiers there, but we're talking dozens mostly, on and off, and mostly none; indeed there are still significantly more Russian personnel in Syria than v/v) but not many. It's doubtful the west in general wants to talk much about having a few troops on the ground as well because... they've got some there too.

As for the rest: “By a continuous shifting of rhetorical focus, the enemies are at the same time too strong and too weak.”

Having been bombarded with how badly Russia is doing; all its casualty figures, equipment losses, morale collapses, corruption, and yes, how it needs to beg 10k troops off of Kim there's a certain irony in being told by the Supreme Allied Commander (lol) that actually all of it will make them stronger at the end.

(for a more detailed example; when it comes to new equipment we're simultaneously told that sanctions are so effective Russia can't even make tanks any more- a genuine example from 2022- plus all the other stuff like the multiple times they were running out of missiles etc yet per Cavoli they're going to be re-equipped with new, better gear at the end as well? I mean, it's pretty obvious what the truth is- the sanctions aren't very effective, and have mostly resulted in Russia in housing the production chain- but, we get told that they're resorting to stealing washing machines for parts and having to fight with shovels, and that they're going to be better equipped at the end...)

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Im not with you, why would NK soldiers being deployed to Ukraine be about the US response after the election irrespective of who wins ?

If Harris wins US aid will continue in the same way, if Trump wins he will try to create a peace deal by offering a carrot or stick for both countries 

Im not getting how NK soldiers fit into this?

 

 

[Malcador]

6 hours ago, Lexx said:

I believe what was meant with "stronger than ever" is that russia will have (probably) learned from their mistakes and train different / with more modern hardware, thus naturally will be stronger than in the beginning of the Ukraine war where they failed in literally every category.

Probably also a play to pump up spending as well, our forces are always weak and unready.  There was a war game by Hodges and Breedlove (that name is weird to write) where Lithuania held back Russia for 10 days, all that's needed is an additional 10 B euro a year on defense, heh.  Wargame also has 44 L2s devastate Russian forces, so.

 

Edited October 21 by Malcador

[BruceVC]

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-north-korea-deserters-meat-assault-1972200

 

NK  soldiers in Kursk are already deserting and they not even in the Russian meatgrinder yet