Ukraine Conflict - continuing

[Malcador]

Another incursion, Kursk this time. Using Strykers as well. Guess it's to try to pin down Russian resources, maybe aviation bait?

Lee's thoughts on it

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1820892991067754636.html

Edited August 6 by Malcador

[Zoraptor]

Doesn't seem likely it will pin down any more resources than already are. Every source still has far more Russian troops- 100k+- on the northern border than are committed in Kharkov. If it really is a brigade that's inverse Goldilocks; not big enough to require extra resources, not small enough to do an infiltration type attack. And a brigade that isn't deployed in a place they'd potentially make a difference like near Pokrovsk or New York. Still, at least they bagged a Ka52 out of it.

8 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Oh noes, war criminals who have on their hands countless of civilian casualties have been eliminated in a country, which provides them safe harbour, and using them for killing civilians at home as well. What a disgraceful violation of the “world order” that Putin talking so much about

Nobody is crying tears for Wagner, probably not even the Russian government. They're disposable and disclaimable, that's the whole point of them.

That Africa in general was not going to react well to being turned into a proxy battlefield for Europeans- more than it already is- should not have been a surprise to Ukraine. If nothing else they should have been aware that even the 'pure' Tuareg Nationalists don't just claim parts of Mali, they claim a big chunk of the Sahel including parts of multiple other countries. And the transnational ones they're mixed in with claim everything in a band from the Atlantic to Red Sea/ Upper Indian Ocean coast.

They probably don't appreciate the gaslighting about the claims of responsibility either, though that is more minor.

[Malcador]

Niger cut off relations, Senegal next maybe.

https://www.reuters.com/world/niger-cuts-ties-with-ukraine-over-comments-mali-wagner-attack-2024-08-06/

For whatever that's worth

[BruceVC]

18 hours ago, Malcador said:

Rules apply to those we like I guess.

Good luck to Ukraine getting the Global South on side for the next joke of a peace summit. Although who knows, maybe battlefield will have changed more by November.

Do you think the likes of Mali and Niger matter when it comes to whatever the Global South thinks?

There is no such thing as a united Global South, thats basically a BRICS term that gets selectively used depending on the topic and geopolitical development 

What really matters is  regional seats of power that are functional and efficient  and as far as Africa is concerned that is suppose to be the African Union which is intended to speak on behalf of a united Africa like the EU but the AU is not united on a myriad of issues both on the continent and internationally and countries like Mali, Niger and Burkina Fuso have been suspended from the AU because the AU doesnt accept military coups as a type of leadership change and never will 

So these 3 countries now represent there own regional group united by military Juntas   but they dont speak on behalf of the AU or whatever the " Global South " is suppose to mean 

 

[BruceVC]

10 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

 

That Africa in general was not going to react well to being turned into a proxy battlefield for Europeans- more than it already is- should not have been a surprise to Ukraine. If nothing else they should have been aware that even the 'pure' Tuareg Nationalists don't just claim parts of Mali, they claim a big chunk of the Sahel including parts of multiple other countries. And the transnational ones they're mixed in with claim everything in a band from the Atlantic to Red Sea/ Upper Indian Ocean coast.

They probably don't appreciate the gaslighting about the claims of responsibility either, though that is more minor.

The  Ukrainian military influence in African conflicts is only something I have really  heard about on forums like this

Every serious African  analyst talks about Islamic extremist groups, tribal warfare,  and then groups like the Tuareg nationalists destabilizing certain countries

You can remove all and any Ukrainian military presence from any current African conflict and its not  going change anything around the specific  war ending 

But Wagner\Russia  is actively involved  in about 5-6 conflicts working with one side or another but they also not the reason for these conflicts and they also cant change the outcomes of these conflicts unless you can be specific and give examples on what conflict they are making a significant difference in ?

 

[Malcador]

3 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Do you think the likes of Mali and Niger matter when it comes to whatever the Global South thinks?

There is no such thing as a united Global South, thats basically a BRICS term that gets selectively used depending on the topic and geopolitical development 

What really matters is  regional seats of power that are functional and efficient  and as far as Africa is concerned that is suppose to be the African Union which is intended to speak on behalf of a united Africa like the EU but the AU is not united on a myriad of issues both on the continent and internationally and countries like Mali, Niger and Burkina Fuso have been suspended from the AU because the AU doesnt accept military coups as a type of leadership change and never will 

So these 3 countries now represent there own regional group united by military Juntas   but they dont speak on behalf of the AU or whatever the " Global South " is suppose to mean 

 

Who said they spoke for all? Ukraine hasn't won African nations over yet, clearly they feel a need for it (opinions of Podoliak aside).  Three are annoyed with them, so just looks like a poor start.

Surprised not heard a peep about this Kursk advance in the news here. Maybe waiting to report on success.

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

Who said they spoke for all? Ukraine hasn't won African nations over yet, clearly they feel a need for it (opinions of Podoliak aside).  Three are annoyed with them, so just looks like a poor start.

 

Yes but the point is countries like Niger and Mali dont represent the views of the " global south " which is sometimes used in a type of generalised and selective way. For example here is an AJ article that also seems to think Niger and Mali have significance in the " global south "

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/7/russia-accuses-ukraine-of-opening-african-front-as-niger-cuts-kyiv-ties#:~:text=The claim by Moscow followed,West to turn to Russia.

"The spat is viewed as a significant hit to Ukraine’s efforts to win global support as it defends itself against Russia’s invasion, and, in particular, to broaden its appeal in the Global South."

But what does the global south represent? Its definitely not suppose to be about military coups overthrowing democratically elected governments and then these same states being suspended from the AU because of these coups 

And of course these countries would align with Russia because they know there wont be any condemnation around the undemocratic way they have seized power and will stay in power. All these military leaders in these coups said they would restore democratic rule at a certain date and both Mali and Burkina Faso  lied and backtracked on that initial commitment and I guarantee you Niger will do the same thing 

https://apnews.com/article/mali-presidential-election-coup-democracy-fecca4add800eeec12ea2fab14dd2209

https://issafrica.org/iss-today/burkina-faso-progress-and-problems-after-two-years-of-transition

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Malcador]

11 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Yes but the point is countries like Niger and Mali dont represent the views of the " global south "

Which I didn't say it did. But whatever. I am curious how Ukraine will try to gin up support in Africa elsewhere though.

Ukraine making gains in this, well I guess it's an offensive now, captured Sudzha  People getting ahead of themselves with ideas they'll seize Kursk NPP or something more grandiose. 

[Mamoulian War]

36 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Which I didn't say it did. But whatever. I am curious how Ukraine will try to gin up support in Africa elsewhere though.

Ukraine making gains in this, well I guess it's an offensive now, captured Sudzha  People getting ahead of themselves with ideas they'll seize Kursk NPP or something more grandiose. 

Botswana ratified the peace summint memorandum a day after “Mali diplomatic incident” . Seems like it affects the “Global South” as much as bombing children hospitals afects Nestle doing business in Russia

and the Kursk, well, this is becoming very juicy. Russian milbloggers have confirmed operational encirclement of Sudzha, which means approx 15 kms in a day, or in other numbers, 2 months and 20k of casualties of Russian Advance in Pokrovsk Direction, after the fall of Avdiivka

 

[Mamoulian War]

On 8/6/2024 at 2:29 PM, Malcador said:

Rules apply to those we like I guess.

Good luck to Ukraine getting the Global South on side for the next joke of a peace summit. Although who knows, maybe battlefield will have changed more by November.

Which rules you talk about? Do you think, the Azawad people do not deserve the liberation of their nation from oppresive junta governent Mali as much Palestinian people from Israel government? The Touaregs at least did not go and murdered thousand of civilians in a single day like Hamas did, but gone directly against the terorrists, who murdered the people of their own

[Malcador]

34 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Which rules you talk about? Do you think, the Azawad people do not deserve the liberation of their nation from oppresive junta governent Mali as much Palestinian people from Israel government? The Touaregs at least did not go and murdered thousand of civilians in a single day like Hamas did, but gone directly against the terorrists, who murdered the people of their own

Just a joke about concerns of sovereignty, never were any rules even with Euros crying about in 2022.

51 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Botswana ratified the peace summint memorandum a day after “Mali diplomatic incident” . Seems like it affects the “Global South” as much as bombing children hospitals afects Nestle doing business in Russia

and the Kursk, well, this is becoming very juicy. Russian milbloggers have confirmed operational encirclement of Sudzha, which means approx 15 kms in a day, or in other numbers, 2 months and 20k of casualties of Russian Advance in Pokrovsk Direction, after the fall of Avdiivka

 

Seems quite successful so far, this offensive is probably a better idea than the one last year - at the very least no trailer telegraphing it.   People sure do get carried away with it, calling for nukes or some left hook to cut off the Russians in the south.

Although, if Russia were to nuke their own soil, wonder how that'd play out.

 

Also funny is the US asking for an explanation - I guess they still can't use US gear in Russia proper

Edited August 7 by Malcador

[Mamoulian War]

Seems like the concern of the US is just Russian disinfo again. From what I understand, what US guys really said (Kirby IIRC), is that the usage of US stuff on a Russian soil inside a perimeter is still valid. They did not breach more than 100kms. Yet

Quote

Kirby states the US officials will be "reaching out to our Ukrainian counterparts to get a little better understanding" of the situation in Kursk Oblast, Russia.

He added that the US has not changed its policy of authorising Ukraine to use American-supplied weapons "to target imminent threats just across the border".

The rumours says, that UA has already taken more than 300 PoWs in two days of the Special Military Operation to protect Ukrainian speaking minorities living in Russia.

[Malcador]

Not really disinformation, at least every place I saw had it quote the same thing you did by Kirby The BB article lacked the quote though when I checked, is there now thought - pft - https://archive.is/rzbT2

Funny to read but I suppose the US would have to give the okay regardless,  Ukraine can't tick off the Americans when they need them for everything.

Video of about 40+ Russians taken PoW, rumours are largely bull**** even on best days (amusing to mention disinformation earlier) - NOEL Reports had a hilarious "report" that a Russian plane was shot down but unknown where and what kind of plane. 

Edited August 7 by Malcador

[Mamoulian War]

Rumours are rumours, sometimes bull****, sometimes true. The video of 40+ is from single event. These events are ongoing for two days. And as the borders in Kursk were guarded by 18-19 years old fresh conscripts, with zero combat experience, and as TikTok warriors have ran away faster than Flash, it is quite plausible, that there are many more than just 40 of them

 

edit: 

There are already two of such videos, confirming minimum of 80 PoWs taken.

[Malcador]

Indeed faith is all that matters. 

Rumours are mostly bull****, see anything that fool WarMonitor posts. POW haul doesn't really matter all that much overall, I guess.

At least something is going on other than New York being captured 10 feet at a time

[Mamoulian War]

Well, as these are mostly conscripts, they are most likely ethnic Russian who have been “parked” at places deemed most safe, and not from the ethnic minorities, about which no one cares in Russia, so their price might be much much higher on the PoW “market”. And there is a chance that this might spark some kind of ire among the more wealthy and more influential We’ll see in few days/weeks.

Oh and this popped up, while browsing lates news I love Ukrainian sense of humor even in such a hard times.

 

[Malcador]

Wonder if they had done this last year how that would have gone (assuming they could have gotten the US to be ok with their kit being used)

Same old story on other fronts, at least.

 

Edited August 8 by Malcador

[Mamoulian War]

Hmm, at the time, they had like 1/10th of their current drone fleet, less trained new recruits, and no F-16s. Even although it seems F-16s are not much of an power in this offensive move, I would asume, that it would end much worse for UA than today. Russia maybe had even more soldiers at borders at that time, as Avdiivka was still holding, and Russia was not outstretched in Donbass. And they definitely had few thousands of artilleries more to move around the frontline. Russia is lately losing 40 artilleries per day on average, so in a year, that’s more than 10k pieces in a year, which is significant firepower, which could end up any UA attempt in hours. Looks like all of the Russian Freedom Legion incursions were just a reconaissance for this large operation.

There is absolute silence on UA side, all info is now only fromwhining on Russian Telegram, somwe will not see if this operation will be success or failure for few weeks minimum. The pace of breakthrough is for now, according to Russians, on par with Kharkiv Counter-Offensive in 2022.

[Malcador]

Yeah, F-16s aren't a factor here.  I suppose though they have Patriots now, as well as the FPV drones they use as anti-air weapons. Still, recall discussions on the offensive last year choosing the worst axis, but may be they all sucked. 

German IFVs also in Russia too, Marder ate a Lancet when abandoned.

 

[Mamoulian War]

A summary of current situation in Kursk from PoV of one Z-blogger.

 

[Malcador]

Mil bloggers are a valuable resource depending on what they say for sure, heh.  To act like WarMonitor there were rumours of an invasion toward Belgorod, but nothing ever turned up confirmed.  Everyone concludes a lot from one video, and that is throughout the war.

Kofman was talking about this and says the Ukrainian force is about 10k, rather impressive.  Still RF not shifting from the south, guess that makes some degree of sense if they can manage it. 

[HoonDing]

They always said they'd be back

[Mamoulian War]

8 hours ago, Malcador said:

Mil bloggers are a valuable resource depending on what they say for sure, heh.  To act like WarMonitor there were rumours of an invasion toward Belgorod, but nothing ever turned up confirmed.  Everyone concludes a lot from one video, and that is throughout the war.

Kofman was talking about this and says the Ukrainian force is about 10k, rather impressive.  Still RF not shifting from the south, guess that makes some degree of sense if they can manage it. 

Few units (no clue how many soldiers) have been moved from Kharkiv and Doneck regions already. And IIRC the soldiers from Kharkiv direction have been hunted down while travelling in a column. There are more and more videos of RU soldiers surrendering, allegedly slowly getting towards first thousand. So the most probable situation is, that some commanders in Kursk are again lying through their teeth, that they can still manage it, and the higher command does not move enough soldiers up north yet. UA maintains absolute “radio silence” so we can only guess what news from RU side is truth and what is made more shiny than in reality

[BruceVC]

https://theconversation.com/mali-is-still-unsafe-under-the-military-why-it-hasnt-made-progress-against-rebels-and-terrorists-236252

This is good read from African analysts about the insurgencies in the Sahel and specifically Mali

He clarifies the different groups involved and raises how the primary "justification" for the military coups was about security and somehow kicking Frances military out and bringing in Russia\Wagner was going to  change this security reality and they raise the various military shortfalls in the current Mali strategy . But also  as I mentioned in a previous post it has had no real difference because if you dont improve the social and economic conditions you wont end the insurgencies

 

@Malcador @Mamoulian War @Zoraptor you should find this analysis interesting 

 

Edited August 12 by BruceVC

[Malcador]

14 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Few units (no clue how many soldiers) have been moved from Kharkiv and Doneck regions already. And IIRC the soldiers from Kharkiv direction have been hunted down while travelling in a column. There are more and more videos of RU soldiers surrendering, allegedly slowly getting towards first thousand. So the most probable situation is, that some commanders in Kursk are again lying through their teeth, that they can still manage it, and the higher command does not move enough soldiers up north yet. UA maintains absolute “radio silence” so we can only guess what news from RU side is truth and what is made more shiny than in reality

Haven't heard anything convincing that the Ukrainians are making big gains, they may have gained more control in Sudzha.  Still is a pretty foggy situation, but has done wonders for morale, everyone joking (er..I hope at least) about the entire oblast falling, reaching Moscow or this causing Russia to collapse (dimestore sociology on Russia for this last one).  Saw two videos of Ukrainian APCs in advanced areas but they were being driven by Russians, I guess one issue with OSINT is everyone can do it

Also ZNPP had a fire in a cooling tower, but oddly no panic from that, strange.