Ukraine Conflict - continuing

[kanisatha]

5 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

A poll conducted in France, before Macron’s remarks about French troops in UA says that 51% of French youth are ready to defend French interests in Ukraine, if needs emerge. 62% of them are in favour to reintroduce the compulsory military service.

Study was published in Le Parisien.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/14/7451168/

For the french speaking, link in the article above.

The French ready to fight?

Truly, the end-times are nigh!

[Malcador]

Russia is due to run out of tanks in a year, so probably won't be needed any way.

[Lexx]

Where's that info coming from and why would they think that?

[Zoraptor]

David Axe forbes sites/blog is the source, so no it isn't a serious assessment.

(actually not sure he's the ultimate source, but it's the title of his April 7? article. Either way, he's a clickbait merchant and his articles tend to be either 'the sky is falling' or 'everything is coming up Roses' with little in between)

Edited April 14 by Zoraptor

[Malcador]

3 hours ago, Lexx said:

Where's that info coming from and why would they think that?

Not wholly convinced, but Russia's got to be low on equipment now. But that just means they'll dig in and things go nowhere, maybe?

And for a bit of a laugh

 

[Mamoulian War]

Ukraine will be able to use Norwegian F16s to hit targets deep in Russia, if they desire so.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/15/7451323/

[BruceVC]

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-israel-house-republicans-3f6f6af81c860eb8ce4104e61728a0fb

So it looks like US Congress is finally going to put the various aid packages to the floor for a vote and this includes the Ukraine $65 billion 

Johnson is not worried about threats to remove him because he will survive a vote of no-confidence with Democrats help

 

[Mamoulian War]

It was about time.

In Slovakia, due to our government is incompetent and on their way to Greece with their spending, a non-government company has started a funding campaing to funf the Czech artillery shell initiative. People have raised 1 million Eur in 47 hours

[Malcador]

9 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-israel-house-republicans-3f6f6af81c860eb8ce4104e61728a0fb

So it looks like US Congress is finally going to put the various aid packages to the floor for a vote and this includes the Ukraine $65 billion 

Johnson is not worried about threats to remove him because he will survive a vote of no-confidence with Democrats help

 

Once that's done, watch all the doom and gloom articles evaporate.  3 months later than I expected though, but was coming.

[BruceVC]

15 hours ago, Malcador said:

Once that's done, watch all the doom and gloom articles evaporate.  3 months later than I expected though, but was coming.

https://missouriindependent.com/2024/04/17/u-s-house-gop-rolls-out-aid-for-ukraine-israel-votes-planned-on-tiktok-border-security/

I see the House will vote on Saturday on the Ukraine package and other aid 

I dont know if the aid was ever guaranteed because this type of funding always needs approval from Congress  and the political vacillations of representatives can delay or change things 

And thats influenced by American citizens so very few things are " guaranteed " unless the US is actively involved in its own war

But the whole inconsistent MAGA ideology was part of this delay and pushback at least for some of the GOP 

Anyway we still need the vote to happen so lets see how that goes 

[BruceVC]

https://www.politico.eu/article/robert-habeck-wants-germany-to-rebuild-ukraine/

Interesting story about Germany helping to rebuild Ukraine 

Some people might be cynical about this but obviously reconstruction projects have to go to someone so why not  include Germany as one of those countries?

 

 

Edited April 19 by BruceVC

[Malcador]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/18/ukraine-frontline-collapsing-putin-iran-israel-europe/

Domino theory of our time, I am feeling. For amusement read Hamish's comments last year too

Ukraine also claims they downed a Tu-22, first bomber downed of the war.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1781226428031234208

[BruceVC]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-vote-foreign-aid-bills-ukraine-israel/story?id=109429499

The US Congress through the House has approved the military aid to Ukraine with 311 votes  for  the aid and 112 against 

They also voted for aid to   Israel and Taiwan

Marjorie  Taylor  Green is outraged and her   and other GOP members  will  definitely call  for   a  vote to  remove Johnson

But he should survive  this with help from the Dems,  I like  Johnson. He seems to understand the importance  of compromise  and bipartisanship so  that Congress can function 

 

 

[Malcador]

12 hours ago, BruceVC said:

He seems to understand the importance  of compromise  and bipartisanship so  that Congress can function 

Sure, if you ignore the past couple of months.

[Mamoulian War]

8 hours ago, Malcador said:

Sure, if you ignore the past couple of months.

NYT has a story behind it.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/21/7452278/

[kanisatha]

There was an interesting article in Foreign Affairs today proposing that European countries could potentially send troops to Ukraine but do so outside of NATO and without invoking anything NATO-related, the argument being that this would not trigger as massive a response from Russia. Have any of you Europeans seen/heard anything along these lines being discussed there?

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

There was an interesting article in Foreign Affairs today proposing that European countries could potentially send troops to Ukraine but do so outside of NATO and without invoking anything NATO-related, the argument being that this would not trigger as massive a response from Russia. Have any of you Europeans seen/heard anything along these lines being discussed there?

Not talked officially yet, but French does this all the time with their Foreign Legion in Sahel. They soldiers were attacked a lot by ISIS and similar bunch, and they never invoked Article 5. And some "analytics" are cautiously speaking about similar scenario. Also, there are already troops from NATO countries in Ukraine, but always just as advisors or trainers. Not in combat duties.

[Zoraptor]

While Article 5 is what gets invoked it's actually Article 6 that is relevant.  per NATO:

Quote

 

Article 6

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France 2, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;

on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.

 

So France couldn't invoke Article 5 for the Sahel as it isn't their sovereign territory under their jurisdiction- also the case for Ukraine, of course, they'd be in or over the territory of a Non Party. For that matter, also true for the Falklands War since it was south of the Tropic of Cancer so Britain couldn't invoke Article 5 even if she wanted to.

Lest we forget, there are already NATO troops on the ground anyway, just unacknowledged. Wasn't that long ago people were yelling at the Germans for revealing it with their rationale for not sending Taurus. It's extremely likely some have died already too, and been passed off as 'training accidents'.

The talk of French Foreign Legion troops being sent is fundamentally because, well, no one cares if they die.

[Elerond]

17 hours ago, kanisatha said:

There was an interesting article in Foreign Affairs today proposing that European countries could potentially send troops to Ukraine but do so outside of NATO and without invoking anything NATO-related, the argument being that this would not trigger as massive a response from Russia. Have any of you Europeans seen/heard anything along these lines being discussed there?

If any NATO member sends their troops to Ukraine outside of NATO mission, then those troops aren't protected by NATO's articles. Same way as their troops in Middle east or Africa etc. aren't protected by NATO's articles.

But I am not sure I there is actually any country that actually wants send their troops outside of some grandstanding speeches. Sending old armament from their end of life storages was already difficult political process to do

[Gorth]

20 hours ago, kanisatha said:

There was an interesting article in Foreign Affairs today proposing that European countries could potentially send troops to Ukraine but do so outside of NATO and without invoking anything NATO-related, the argument being that this would not trigger as massive a response from Russia. Have any of you Europeans seen/heard anything along these lines being discussed there?

Way to open the door for unrestricted Russian retaliation against said countries. It won't just happen on the Ukrainian battlefield, but at the countries of origin of said troops. If someone sitting in a safe bunker somewhere wants to place bet on Russia not retaliating massively, well good on them, but if I lived in one of said European countries, I would make mental note of nearest cold war era shelter right away.

Edit: If into gambling anyway, want to bet Putin is constantly weighing up Nato's participation int he conflict and on a day by day basis decides when the participation has entered the territory of active participation?

[Mamoulian War]

6 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Way to open the door for unrestricted Russian retaliation against said countries. It won't just happen on the Ukrainian battlefield, but at the countries of origin of said troops. If someone sitting in a safe bunker somewhere wants to place bet on Russia not retaliating massively, well good on them, but if I lived in one of said European countries, I would make mental note of nearest cold war era shelter right away.

Here is a pretty good explanation, what would most likely happen, if some contry would sent their troops to Russia, and why it is not sucha big problem for an average Joe/Jacques/Jaszek.

We already had not long ago similar situation with NATO troops in West Berlin, which Russia wanted really bad.

 

[Gorth]

48 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Here is a pretty good explanation, what would most likely happen, if some contry would sent their troops to Russia, and why it is not sucha big problem for an average Joe/Jacques/Jaszek.

We already had not long ago similar situation with NATO troops in West Berlin, which Russia wanted really bad.

I do see a number of differences. In the case of cold war Berlin, the western troops did not actively engage in open warfare with the WP forces and were based in areas acknowledged as western territory by the WP. In modern times, how long would Macron be able sell a war on the home front if it turned into a full scale war with Russia (without Nato backing)? No doubt the initial nationalism would carry it for a while, but once the body bags starts arriving back in the thousands, it may be a hard sell, not dissimilar to the Vietnam war (imho).

Is France ready for a "limited" nuclear war and the costs associated with it? Is the rest of Europe ready to die for France's military ambitions?

[Mamoulian War]

29 minutes ago, Gorth said:

I do see a number of differences. In the case of cold war Berlin, the western troops did not actively engage in open warfare with the WP forces and were based in areas acknowledged as western territory by the WP. In modern times, how long would Macron be able sell a war on the home front if it turned into a full scale war with Russia (without Nato backing)? No doubt the initial nationalism would carry it for a while, but once the body bags starts arriving back in the thousands, it may be a hard sell, not dissimilar to the Vietnam war (imho).

Is France ready for a "limited" nuclear war and the costs associated with it? Is the rest of Europe ready to die for France's military ambitions?

From every single note from France stance, I have not seen a single note about French Troops engaging in active combat (for now). Therefore it is to me still similar to West Berlin. And NATO and Russia already fought against each other in through their proxy wars in North Korea, Vietnam and Sahel, and it did not turned into nuclear holocaust.

[Zoraptor]

It's not just a French decision whether they engage in combat. They'd be being sent to a war zone and would make a tempting target. It's very easy for a Think Tanker to say the Russians would never dare, but with no NATO involved most of the deterrent is gone and the calculus on the Russian side may well be that the best way to get the troops out is to kill a lot of them and make it politically untenable. That's the thing Think Tankers tend not to consider- at some point, escalation becomes less of a risk for Russia than not escalating. Kill a few hundred Frenchies, decourager les autres;  do nothing, encourage others to sends troops...

If the French Sector of West Berlin was held unilaterally by the French you can guarantee it'd have been the Soviet Sector very quickly, especially when the French didn't have nukes.

[pmp10]

It seems ATACMs will be part of the US weapons package.
That should be about the last entry from Ukrainian wish-list.

It will also increase the pressure on Germany to send Taurus missiles.