Ukraine Conflict - Those who can win a war well can rarely make a good peace and those who could make a good peace would never have won the war

[Lexx]

At current time I'm not aware of a terror attack from the past years where our european police tortured / mutilated the bodies of culprits. Of course I'm willing to learn, so if you have examples of such, go ahead.

[Malcador]

Oddly specific request, but that's how Blue Team does it, and if you're going to do it, that's the best way.  Is interesting seeing people bounce around to saying it's just like the 1999 apartment bombings and this is a false flag, to it being really IS-K.  Given the US statement think that'd be it.  Russian still running with Ukraine.

Would be interesting to see how things would play out if it were Ukraine, just as a thought experiment

Edited March 23 by Malcador

[Lexx]

Like I said before, it makes no sense to be a false-flag attack. What would Russia gain from it that they can't just do right now anyways? Situation is completely different now from the apartment bombings back in the days. And for Ukraine... attacking civilians in a theater? Why? This wouldn't win their war. At best it means nothing, at worst it would give them less western support. Makes no sense.

Considering russia has and still is pissing off various islamic factions, it makes the most sense for them to try to go for it while they can. So yeah... Occam's razor yadda-yadda.

Edited March 24 by Lexx

[Malcador]

1 minute ago, Lexx said:

Like I said before, it makes no sense to be a false-flag attack. What would Russia gain from it that they can't just do right now anyways? Situation is completely different now from the apartment bombings back in the days. And for Ukraine... attacking civilians in a theater? Why? This wouldn't win their war. At best it means nothing, at worst it would give them less western support. Makes no sense.

Considering russia has and still is pissing off various islamic factions, it makes the most sense for them to try to go for it while they can. So yeah... Occam's razor yadda-yadda.

Apparently is to excuse mobilization. Although, given Russia has national conscription and they do it in the spring, wonder if that is just the cohort of conscripts.  If Ukraine were to get collectively high and decide to facilitate this, I guess the thought might be to just cause pain and distraction for Russia. Definitely is a level of dumb higher than Dugina or vaping a truck driver to damage Kerch, but as I said is a funny thought experiment.

 

[BruceVC]

4 hours ago, Lexx said:

Like I said before, it makes no sense to be a false-flag attack. What would Russia gain from it that they can't just do right now anyways? Situation is completely different now from the apartment bombings back in the days. And for Ukraine... attacking civilians in a theater? Why? This wouldn't win their war. At best it means nothing, at worst it would give them less western support. Makes no sense.

Considering russia has and still is pissing off various islamic factions, it makes the most sense for them to try to go for it while they can. So yeah... Occam's razor yadda-yadda.

Exactly, its  almost guaranteed to be ISIS and they have released  another video  claiming responsibility 

The denialism and attempts  to  not  accept its   ISIS has  surprised  me,  Vatniks on Codex  are peddling various false narratives  and someone mentioned  its  because " only the US and its allies   get attacked  by Islamic extremists  for meddling in the ME "  

So  I guess that  could be the reason we  seeing this strange attempt  to not believe the obvious culprits  responsible?

Its  not like its  the first time Russia has been attacked  and it wont be the last,  remember  the Russian plane  that was blown up leaving Egypt 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34687990

 

 

[Zoraptor]

The issue with the ISIS claim is that the attackers clearly aren't the usual Salafi nutbars. No suicide vests or fight to the death, at either point; no takbirs ('allahu akbar'); non halal beards/ clean shaven- indeed, seemingly wearing fake beards for the attack of all things- and they were definitively heading for Ukraine. Which was moronic since that's the most monitored border Russia has, as was not swapping cars or taking even the most rudimentary steps to avoid capture, but... there's effectively no doubt it was them. They may just have been dumb enough to do it for 10000 dollars promised by some random on telegram.

Edited March 24 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

33 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

The issue with the ISIS claim is that the attackers clearly aren't the usual Salafi nutbars. No suicide vests or fight to the death, at either point; no takbirs ('allahu akbar'); non halal beards/ clean shaven- indeed, seemingly wearing fake beards for the attack of all things- and they were definitively heading for Ukraine. Which was moronic since that's the most monitored border Russia has, as was not swapping cars or taking even the most rudimentary steps to avoid capture, but... there's effectively no doubt it was them. They may just have been dumb enough to do it for 10000 dollars promised by some random on telegram.

But ISIS has several affiliated groups and they dont all fight to the death

When the ISIS Caliphate in the  ME was  finally destroyed in 2018  there  were several  hundred ISIS  militants  who surrendered.  Interestingly enough they were  mostly the "Western "  ISIS fighters  from EU countries and not from countries like Chechnya 

I remember reading an article about an Iraqi Sunni women who lived under  ISIS occupation in  Mosul  and she specifically mentioned how the worst atrocities and drug usage was done  generally by ISIS members from Western countries and not foreign fighters  from  the ME and other places  

Remember this guy from the UK,  "Jihadi John "  

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/26/uk-man-behind-isis-beheadings-named-as-mohammed-emwazi-jihadi-john

 

 

 

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

10 hours ago, Lexx said:

Like I said before, it makes no sense to be a false-flag attack. What would Russia gain from it that they can't just do right now anyways? Situation is completely different now from the apartment bombings back in the days. And for Ukraine... attacking civilians in a theater? Why? This wouldn't win their war. At best it means nothing, at worst it would give them less western support. Makes no sense.

Considering russia has and still is pissing off various islamic factions, it makes the most sense for them to try to go for it while they can. So yeah... Occam's razor yadda-yadda.

If they want to form the two above mentioned armies, as Shoigu said, they need to mobilize people from original muscovite regions as well, as they are running out of non-slavic "economic slaves", and they do not want to risk revolt. Some dead "pure russians" would lean the population to be more acceptable to general mobilization. Similar thing happened in Beslan school very shortly before their previous SMO. The FSB rhetorics about the involvement of Ukraine in the attack is already pushed out hard.

[Malcador]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-missile-airspace-violation-c9d2511f169e9f80a08082726c118114

Usual jackasses on Twitter are mashing the Article 5 button no doubt. 

[xzar_monty]

I suppose the bottom line is that no matter who did it it, Ukraine is going to get the blame and the revenge, as far as Russia is concerned. I can't see how it could be any other way. (And yes, it almost certainly was islamists by whatever name they wish to be called.) As much as what happened was ISIS' modus operandi, blaming Ukraine is Russia's.

[BruceVC]

49 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

I suppose the bottom line is that no matter who did it it, Ukraine is going to get the blame and the revenge, as far as Russia is concerned. I can't see how it could be any other way. (And yes, it almost certainly was islamists by whatever name they wish to be called.) As much as what happened was ISIS' modus operandi, blaming Ukraine is Russia's.

I think it really does matter around who did it and this will influence the Russian response 

What I am finding hilarious  on Codex is the amount of cope and attempts to dismiss the obvious candidates which is ISIS-K and the strange reasoning for this false narrative 

There are many  anti-US\West commentators who support terrorist attacks on US interests because " the US is an imperialist power and it keeps meddling in the ME so it deserves to be attacked " 

And of course these same people don't consider Russia to be an imperial power that doesn't " meddle " so they don't want to accept that Russia is an active target for groups like ISIS for several reasons that include Russia current involvement in the Syrian war which is the same " meddling " the US has done in the ME 

The reality of groups like ISIS is they have a wide range of possible targets and countries and no one is really safe from perverse and anachronistic ideological views 

 

 

 

 

 

[Lexx]

I find it already troubling that you read this crap on the Codex at all. To me this is just the ultimate form of brain rot and I'm sure as hell not going out of my way to get into it.

[xzar_monty]

15 minutes ago, Lexx said:

I find it already troubling that you read this crap on the Codex at all. To me this is just the ultimate form of brain rot and I'm sure as hell not going out of my way to get into it.

I was going to say essentially the same thing. I can't think of any reason to pay any attention to something like the Codex at all, and even to comment upon is a waste of time (and yes, I do recognize that this comment, by extension, is a similar waste of time).

[HoonDing]

Why bring up what's going on at other forums at all?

[Malcador]

We really should check with Ja Rule.

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Lexx said:

I find it already troubling that you read this crap on the Codex at all. To me this is just the ultimate form of brain rot and I'm sure as hell not going out of my way to get into it.

Its no different to anyone who uses numerous SM sources to debate  and share information

Some good points get made on Codex and some utter nonsense gets spoken

But thats just the political debates and I only follow 2-3. Its a very good source of gaming information as you know 

 

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I was going to say essentially the same thing. I can't think of any reason to pay any attention to something like the Codex at all, and even to comment upon is a waste of time (and yes, I do recognize that this comment, by extension, is a similar waste of time).

Codex is not an echo-chamber and they have relaxed moderator rules 

I have realized its good to be exposed to different opinions especially because I dont use SM as a news source

But its a very active and busy forum and I like that. But you cant engage in political debates on Codex and get offended because thats what some people will intentionally try to do once they know your views

 

[Gfted1]

Ah theres your problem. Dont you know that if another persons views dont align with yours, they are wrong. They are also probably nazi leaning. Internet debating 101.

[BruceVC]

12 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

Ah theres your problem. Dont you know that if another persons views dont align with yours, they are wrong. They are also probably nazi leaning. Internet debating 101.

Nazi or Fascist leanings, it will be one or the other 

[Malcador]

13 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

Ah theres your problem. Dont you know that if another persons views dont align with yours, they are wrong. They are also probably nazi leaning. Internet debating 101.

Not to continue the tangent but on the Codex, they may very well be Nazis.

[BruceVC]

2 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Not to continue the tangent but on the Codex, they may very well be Nazis.

Well there are people who claim to support Neo-Nazi ideology but they are a tiny group, maybe 6-7 people? The Ukraine thread has about 40 active people so they not a big factor 

Codex does have extreme political views but its from the left and right. But it  also has normal opinions and more centralist views which is where I place myself more or less but I always support basic human rights over anything else 

If you take the US definition of left and right politics I support both the Dems and GOP around different policies

 

[Gfted1]

50 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

If you take the US definition of left and right politics I support both the Dems and GOP around different policies

Uh oh, now youre wrong with me. Id rather see Trump take a long walk off a short pier than get elected again.

[BruceVC]

40 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

Uh oh, now youre wrong with me. Id rather see Trump take a long walk off a short pier than get elected again.

I also dont want to see  Trump  elected  again but there  are several reasons  he might win

For  me  I respect the outcomes in any free  and fair election, I may  not   be happy with the result but I respect it. We  also have our  national elections this year in May.  Its  the first  time  since 1994 that   there  is a  chance the ANC will  get less  than 50%  so  it will be a very interesting election 

[Mamoulian War]

8 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I suppose the bottom line is that no matter who did it it, Ukraine is going to get the blame and the revenge, as far as Russia is concerned. I can't see how it could be any other way. (And yes, it almost certainly was islamists by whatever name they wish to be called.) As much as what happened was ISIS' modus operandi, blaming Ukraine is Russia's.

The ISIS "officials" has already responded to the Russian videos of torture. They have announced they will avenge their "warriors" and will be going after Russian officials, as they view them as "anti-muslim nationalists". From the historic point of view, it will interesting to see how the Russia will fight against enemy, which has as much disregard for human life, as they do. Especially, when 80+% of their forces are currently in Ukraine and their borders have more holes than a collection of Swiss cheese.

[Lexx]

2 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

Ah theres your problem. Dont you know that if another persons views dont align with yours, they are wrong. They are also probably nazi leaning. Internet debating 101.

There is a difference between having a different opinion and spewing ultimate brain rot like codex or /pol does.