Ukraine Conflict - Those who can win a war well can rarely make a good peace and those who could make a good peace would never have won the war

[Malcador]

 

 

[Lexx]

What is this about? Does it mean anything, or just people on the internet pushing spreadsheets around?

[Malcador]

Well that's pretty much the entire war, really, moving spreadsheets.  But just is a glimpse as to what's going on with this raid into Russia.

 

Edited March 19 by Malcador

[BruceVC]

10 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Well that's pretty much the entire war, really, moving spreadsheets.  But just is a glimpse as to what's going on with this raid into Russia.

 

What  is  it based on, who is providing this information?

[Malcador]

14 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

What  is  it based on, who is providing this information?

Visual losses, I believe, propaganda videos and the like.  The twitter user is well regarded as far as OSINT types go.  The thread is worth looking at.

[pmp10]

If FT is to be believed US is asking Ukraine to end attacks on Russian refineries.
Predictable outcome since the tactic was making a difference.

[Lexx]

Really hope they will not stop.

[Malcador]

Struck the DniproHES hydroelectric dam too.  Response to refinery hits, I guess?

[Zoraptor]

And the random shelling of Belgorod. One of their more effective looking strikes, the HES especially looks pretty totalled. Also, some sort of terrorist attack at a Moscow concert hall though no indications it's linked to Ukraine.

5 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Predictable outcome since the tactic was making a difference.

Probably predictable due to Biden wanting to be re-elected more than anything else. Gas prices influence votes, and it wasn't coincidence Biden went off to Saudi to ask for them to knock out the spigots before the midterms.

Edited March 22 by Zoraptor

[pmp10]

At least 40 dead in terror strike on Moscow concert.
We will soon see just how desirable war escalation is for Russia. 

[Sarex]

47 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

At least 40 dead in terror strike on Moscow concert.
We will soon see just how desirable war escalation is for Russia. 

Seems to be muslims from the information so far. Which doesn't not exclude Ukrainian involvement, but there is no word so far on that.

[Lexx]

It's highly unlikely for Ukraine to be behind that attack. Also I doubt it is a false-flag since imo it wouldn't serve a purpose. Much more likely some islamic terror related thing.

Edited March 22 by Lexx

[Malcador]

Guess the American warning about concert venues and gatherings was correct

[Zoraptor]

Ajnad al Kavkaz is fighting for Ukraine, and they'd be one of the more likely groups to have carried it out. Not the likeliest though, that'd probably be a domestic/ semi domestic Viliyat Kavkaz (ISIS, and they have claimed it, for what that is worth) offshoot- though AaK were affiliated with them at one point via the predecessor Caucasus Emirate.

There are a few others fighting for Ukraine who are lesser chances (eg Sheikh Mansur and Dyodar Dudayev btns), but AaK is the most extremist and was best buds with Al Qaeda in Syria/ Jabhat al Nusra as well, so aren't exactly averse to a bit terrorism.

Edited March 23 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

7 hours ago, Malcador said:

Guess the American warning about concert venues and gatherings was correct

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/gunmen-combat-fatigues-open-fire-moscow-concert-hall-108395835

Its looks  like it was  another craven ISIS related attack on civilians  and once again US intelligence was 100%  correct but ignored by Russian authorities 

But its  also not a good look for Putins authoritarian leadership who prides themselves on domestic security as as advantage to his  type of  leadership 

 

Edited March 23 by BruceVC

[Gorth]

13 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/gunmen-combat-fatigues-open-fire-moscow-concert-hall-108395835

Its looks  like it was  another craven ISIS related attack on civilians  and once again US intelligence was 100%  correct but ignored by Russian authorities 

But its  also not a good look for Putins authoritarian leadership who prides themselves on domestic security as as advantage to his  type of  leadership 

 

I’m sure it makes a good casus belli for liberating Khazakstan from its neo nazi government!

[Zoraptor]

Khorasan, not Kazakhstan. It's still far more likely to be Wilayat Kavkaz (ie Caucasus, supposedly one gunman has been captured and is Ingush); ISIS Khorasan is... well, not consistently credible at best. Their shtick is claiming everything and anything to get attention.

48 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

..and once again US intelligence was 100%  correct but ignored by Russian authorities

The American warning was for an imminent threat (next 48 hours), on March 7th, more than two weeks ago. That was also the day Russia took out an ISIS cell, so it's likely the intelligence was acted on. Want to check if there was a more recent warning? Be my guest, but spoiler, there wasn't.

per below John Kirby, they had no specific information to share about this attack.

Quote

 

Q Thank you. So, question: Did the U.S. have prior knowledge of this attack in Moscow, given that the U.S. Embassy had issued warning beforehand?

MR. KIRBY: I’m not aware of any advanced knowledge that we had of this —

Q On —

MR. KIRBY: — this terrible attack.

Q On March 8th, the embassy warned of imminent attack in Moscow by extremists.

MR. KIRBY: Yeah, I think that — I’ll let the State Department speak to that, I think. But I don’t think that was related to this specific attack.

 

Source is direct from - and I'm fairly confident this isn't a pro Russian source, but you never know, could be wrong- the US Presidential Website Whitehouse.gov.

Not exactly brilliant reporting, but sadly unsurprising that Bruce would take it completely at face value and draw an incorrect conclusion.

[BruceVC]

55 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Khorasan, not Kazakhstan. It's still far more likely to be Wilayat Kavkaz (ie Caucasus, supposedly one gunman has been captured and is Ingush); ISIS Khorasan is... well, not consistently credible at best. Their shtick is claiming everything and anything to get attention.

The American warning was for an imminent threat (next 48 hours), on March 7th, more than two weeks ago. That was also the day Russia took out an ISIS cell, so it's likely the intelligence was acted on. Want to check if there was a more recent warning? Be my guest, but spoiler, there wasn't.

per below John Kirby, they had no specific information to share about this attack.

Source is direct from - and I'm fairly confident this isn't a pro Russian source, but you never know, could be wrong- the US Presidential Website Whitehouse.gov.

Not exactly brilliant reporting, but sadly unsurprising that Bruce would take it completely at face value and draw an incorrect conclusion.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/gunmen-open-fire-in-moscow-concert-hall/

Putin ignored the warnings from the US and even went on the expected grandstanding knee-jerk  response to  the US intelligence 

"  Just three days ago, as reported by the Russian state media agency TASS, Putin branded these warnings ‘outright blackmail’ whose intention was ‘to intimidate and destabilise our society’. The warning – and his dismissal – is being highlighted by opposition Telegram channels and set against the carnage that Russia is confronted with this evening"  

And its obvious why Russia responded like this,   they cant accept that the US might have credible  intelligence that the Russian state was not aware  of  and Putin needs  to continue to project the image that under  his  style of authoritarianism  Russia is domestically safer and its own intelligence gathering is effective

The one  thing the article  is  wrong about is the statement " For some time, Western intelligence agencies have been picking up chat about potential strikes in Moscow – and the US took the unusual step of making a public warning "

Its not unusual for the US to issue these types of warnings for their  citizens in any country where  they have credible  information of  an imminent  terrorist attack and often they right. 

Its happened in South Africa where the US warned SA about an imminent  ISIS linked  attack  and there   was  immediate criticism of the US warning but a month later an ISIS cell was  arrested

 

 

 

[Zoraptor]

That, or they're just conflating two unrelated things to try and create a particular narrative. Media reports consistently mention the warning, after all, but consistently do not mention the time limited/ imminent nature of it...

Facts are the warning was from more than 2 weeks ago, for a potential attack (direct quote from the US embassy) "over the next 48 hours". Not open ended, and it's easily verifiable that the warning was not extended. Fact is that the same day an ISIS cell was eliminated by Russia. That this was acting on US intelligence is certainly an inference, but a pretty convincing one. And of course the direct John Kirby quote from the whitehouse press briefing about whether the two were related was, with just a tad of added emphasis by me:

Quote

 

But I don’t think that [warning] was related to this specific attack

 

 

Until someone goes on the record to gainsay that, ie no 'anonymous source', there's really nothing more to say: the warning was for an imminent attack around March 7th, the same day Russia eliminated an ISIS cell, and the US Presidential spokesman thinks that warning and this attack are unrelated.

[Zoraptor]

4 suspects supposedly caught in Bryansk oblast.

Some decidedly odd details though.

[Mamoulian War]

Regarding the Belgorod incident, Russia in order to take out “insurgents” completely annihilated Russian village/town of Kozinka. It looks like, their army uses scorched earth tactics as only viable tactics, even while “defending” at home There are videos available from the village, if you want to see it, not gonna link them here, as they might breach the forum guidelines.

and as soon as Putin has been “elected” things started to move at hypersonic speed in Russia, and most of the big western media has either missed it or ignores it, and it pretty much makes sense now, why Macron has be so adamant about western troops in Ukraine. Shoigu announced the creation of two more armies in Russia, along with 16 brigades and 14 divisions. If successful, Russian army will be bigger than French, Italian, British, Polish, German, Spanish, Netherlandese, Swedish and Danish combined! It is clear that Putin has been emboldened by the Republican actions. And Peskov has stated ofr the first time since the start of SMO, that Russia is in warstate. The Russian war against NATO is more likely than ever

 

Edit: Russia already aired deepfake video in the TV, that the terrorist attack is linked to Ukraine. And FSB has detained 11 “terrorists linked to Ukraine” already.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/23/7447789/

[Malcador]

Domino theory still going strong. ISW excluded the idea they're gearing up for the war they're in.

[HoonDing]

There are without a doubt Chechen and Dagestani elements of the Ukrainian army with ties to ISIS. Which ultimately is the responsibility of the Ukrainian government.

[Lexx]

So they say that 4 people were captured by now. There's videos online where a guy gets tortured

ear cut off and they tried to force him to eat it or something like that - I tried to not watch it.

Way to go, Russia, making me feel sympathy for a terrorist, wtf. Besides, this is all really weird anyways.. apparently that guy was caught 200km away from the attack site? Those guys must be really fast.

Edited March 23 by Lexx

[Malcador]

Should have waited to do the usual enhanced interrogation techniques at a black site, silly Russians.