Ukraine Conflict - Those who can win a war well can rarely make a good peace and those who could make a good peace would never have won the war

[Sarex]

https://sputnikglobe.com/20240301/full-transcript-of-german-top-military-officials-leaked-plot-to-attack-crimean-bridge-1117078481.html

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/02/28/latvian-minister-says-russians-essentially-support-invasion-by-voting-a84279

[Malcador]

Just Germans chatting about Taurus. Bit of a leak too

Edited March 1 by Malcador

[Zoraptor]

Some... rather odd translation choices in the Russian transcription. You'd think they'd take some pains to translate Sukhoi 24 properly at least rather than having chatgpt or the VK equivalent make a hash of it ('limiting factor is 24 shells/ 24 munitions' -->--> 'limiting factor is Sukhoi 24'). Certainly not as damning as the Russians are trying to make out, though equally not as innocent as others are making it. I did rather like the ~"The recording is Russian Propaganda!! but probably genuine" headline we got out of it though.

[Lexx]

Personally, as a german, I really couldn't care less about this. In fact, I want us to send more weapons and ammunition.

/Edit: Saw someone else on reddit summing it up quite well.

I'm German and listened to the whole audio and I'm quite certain it isn't a fake. But it also doesn't really contain any news that weren't obvious already previously.

It's a discussion between some high-ranking Luftwaffe people, discussing how Taurus could be operated by Ukraine and how German personnel would be involved. Note that they talk about this in a hypothetical sense. In the beginning of the convo one of them basically says "We need to have a plan for training, operation and integration of the Taurus into Ukrainian planes, so if the political decision to deliver is made, we (the Bundeswehr) can act quickly".

They also talk about the same topic Olaf Scholz has used to deny the delivery of Taurus: The involvement of German soldiers in target programming. They talk about multiple solutions to this:

1. Train the Ukrainians properly so they can do everything themselves, however they note that this would take a long time

2. Do the programming at a Luftwaffe base in Germany and transmit the data to Poland to hand-deliver the targeting data

3. Have the programming "be done by the manufacturer" officially but send some Bundeswehr dudes to the manufacturer to do it.

They also note, however, that 2. and 3. don't really solve the problem of involvement of German soldiers and are just ways to obfuscate it and that it's unlikely that this would be seen as an acceptable solution. Note that German military is constitutionally forbidden from partaking in military actions that are not (collective) self-defense or peacekeeping as part of NATO/EU/UN. If target programming by German soldiers would be considered taking part in military action is something I don't know and a lawyer would have to decide.

They also confirm that the British have troops in Ukraine who "look over the shoulder of the Ukrainians" when they mount the Storm Shadows. They also say the Brits would be willing to do that for the Taurus as well.

Then they talk at length about the feasibility of Ukraine destroying the Kerch bridge. They come to the conclusion that it would take around 20 missiles.

I don't really get why Russia published this convo. While it is quite interesting and detailed on a technical level, it doesn't really contain any "gotchas".

Edited March 2 by Lexx

[Malcador]

12 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Some... rather odd translation choices in the Russian transcription. You'd think they'd take some pains to translate Sukhoi 24 properly at least rather than having chatgpt or the VK equivalent make a hash of it ('limiting factor is 24 shells/ 24 munitions' -->--> 'limiting factor is Sukhoi 24'). Certainly not as damning as the Russians are trying to make out, though equally not as innocent as others are making it. I did rather like the ~"The recording is Russian Propaganda!! but probably genuine" headline we got out of it though.

Was only one I was able to get, was a better one out there, but it got deleted as leaks of Blue Team are bad or some nonsense. Isn't a huge deal, but was something, does seem like it'd add to people demanding Taurus be sent.

All said wonder how big a deal Kerch is now, Russians probably not adapting in advance I suppose, again.

 

Edited March 2 by Malcador

[Mamoulian War]

Looks like UA shell hunger will come to an end soon.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/01/with-a-million-shells-about-to-ship-ukraines-artillery-crisis-could-end-soon/

[Mamoulian War]

14 RU jets downed in 13 days. And the reasons behind it.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/02/13-sukhois-in-13-days-the-ukrainians-are-shooting-down-more-russian-jets-because-the-russians-are-flying-and-bombing-more-often/

[xzar_monty]

On 3/2/2024 at 10:28 AM, Lexx said:

Personally, as a german, I really couldn't care less about this. In fact, I want us to send more weapons and ammunition.

I'd also love Germany to send way more weapons and ammunition. After all, it cannot be denied that one fairly big factor behind the war was that Germany and Russia had once again Made Plans for Europe Together (gas, etc.).

The fact or "problem" (depending on one's point of view) remains, though, that Germany isn't all that dependable in matters such as this. During the Cold War era, there was a saying that if you wanted the Kremlin to get to know something, all you needed to do was to tell it to West Germany. That's probably a generalization as generalizations go, i.e. it's a bit unfair but also not completely untrue.

[HoonDing]

If there's anyone you can trust more than the French in a war with Russia, it's the Germans.

[Sarex]

https://australianaviation.com.au/2024/03/ukraine-charges-antonov-officials-for-destruction-of-iconic-an-225/

[Malcador]

Surprised no complaints from Russians on the Su-34 downing. Near impossible to prove either way, could be blowing away decoys.

3 hours ago, Sarex said:

https://australianaviation.com.au/2024/03/ukraine-charges-antonov-officials-for-destruction-of-iconic-an-225/

https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/freighter-operator/former-antonov-director-charged-with-negligence-over-an-225-freighter-loss/

Related I guess. Bit unfair to the director, given overall attitude towards invasion at time.

[Zoraptor]

Can't be decoys, only Russian systems fall for them.

Dunno about there being no complaints about the Su-34 thing from Russians, mostly they seem to just refer everyone to FighterBomber (who's just a tad annoyed at constantly being asked about it, and hasn't confirmed any lost Su-34 recently) and spam videos of continuing FAB arrivals. When it comes down to it the only evidence Ukraine has provided is a video of some burnt grass whose original was uploaded days before the date of the shootdown they claimed from it and saying that the 'skies were clear' for the first time which is kind of disproved by the FAB videos. So there isn't much to actively refute; it mostly comes down to the truthiness level an individual associates with the Ukrainian MoD.

Edited March 4 by Zoraptor

[xzar_monty]

Russia's Sergey Kotov ship damaged / destroyed, perhaps. Let us wait for more information.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

Russia's Sergey Kotov ship damaged / destroyed, perhaps. Let us wait for more information.

Yes, another Russian ship damaged or sunk by the usage of drones 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-sea-drones-a316215f5d9fc88a488ef2d99eb828c9

 

[Malcador]

Third time that ship was attacked apparently.  Adapting to these drones will be interesting to see.

 

[Mamoulian War]

UA confirmed that it has been sunk, and released a video of the attack.

[Malcador]

Russians finally got a HIMARS kill. The HIM part of those things really paid off.

[Gfted1]

Theyve been able to damage some too: Ukraine Situation Report: Battle-Damaged HIMARS Return To United States (twz.com)

[Lexx]

Looks kinda easy to fix.

[Mamoulian War]

Some information about Sudanese front of the Russian colonial war. Sudanese government has scored largest gains against special forces. It is said that it was due to training on Bayraktars and other drones received from UA SF.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/6/7445214/

[Malcador]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68492688

Reading on it it's a lot less exciting than it was first made out to be.

[Mamoulian War]

Slovak Foreign Minister had a meeting with Lavrov, and our Prime Minister has boasted how important that meeting was and how important for us are the relations with Russia. Few days after that as a reaction, Italy announced, that the agreement about SAMP/T AD which they provided to us, will be terminated, and it will be transported to Ukraine ASAP. Another reaction was that Czech Republic, our closest neighbours and friends for few hundreds years will not be attending any bilateral meetings on highest state level with PM Fico anymore, as any meeting like that would put a big stain on Czech Reputation. The third reaction was, that there will be event on embassy of Netherlands in Prague, where EU ambassadors/diplomats have been invited to attend, with the exception of Slovak one. They will be talking about the situation in Slovakia...

It took less than 6 months to our new government, to completely destroy all goodwill we gathered since 1993, when we became independent. Slovakia is currently idiomatically back in 1939, when we became Hitler's puppet state

[Zoraptor]

You're not really independent if you're not allowed your own foreign policy.

(Ironically the person doing the most damage to EU foreign policy consistency at the moment is arguably von der Leyen. The EU has a foreign minister and it isn't her, yet she toodles off to Israel to shake hands with Bibi against Borrell's advice. Why would anyone pay any attention to him now?)

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Reading on it it's a lot less exciting than it was first made out to be.

Zelensky awards SF soldiers at Odessa port, they're hit after he leaves. Probably better for them than another flag planting gimmick that ends in 80% casualties at least.

Don't think it's coincidence Russia released footage of other meetings Zelensky has had with Russian drones watching him, obvious implication is that if they wanted to target him they could. Anyone who thinks he survived due to extraordinary Ukrainian competence was... somewhat hopeful, even without Naftali Bennet's confirmation.

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

You're not really independent if you're not allowed your own foreign policy.

 

I would assume its obvious, the EU has an official policy of supporting Ukraine and they dont support the warmongering of Russia or its invasion of Ukraine. And the EU definitely wont be on good terms with any country that considers the EU an enemy which applies to Russia 

So you need to accept that as an EU member if you want to be part the EU

Leave the EU if you want to align with Russia and you dont believe in sovereignty of countries or the principles of Democracy?

[Malcador]

Can still give Russia money though, that's fine.