Ukraine Conflict - Those who can win a war well can rarely make a good peace and those who could make a good peace would never have won the war

[Zoraptor]

Same thing happened with their crossing at the Antonivka Bridge (or what was left of it) and at least there they could shelter under the bridge itself. The crossing at Krynky seems to be the epitome of a Spectacular done solely for PR purposes. And if you can't hold it the PR reverses.

[Malcador]

Seems it's just more attrition warfare, Russia can't force them out but must be hard on morale if it goes on long.

[Mamoulian War]

Found the Politico article, it is the same guy as reported by Reuters.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ex-russia-wagner-officer-russia-atrocities-ukraine-war-crimes-igor-salikov/

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://kyivindependent.com/you-get-to-the-other-side-and-then-what-ukrainian-soldiers-crossing-dnipro-fear-their-mission-is-hopeless/

NYT published something similar earlier this week, people weren't too happy with that for some reason.

 

Despite that, it looks like correct tactical decision, all I have seen from Russian side for last two months messages like this, but in even more pessimistic and gloomy mood If Russia was not able to supply Kherson through Dnepr, it’s silly to presume, that UA is thinking, that they would be able to sustain supply themselves It’s definitely one big bait, which is working good, as they moved some time ago the best UAV unit’s here (Magyar’s Wings), which are hunting the Russians day and night.

 

 

[Zoraptor]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

Seems it's just more attrition warfare, Russia can't force them out but must be hard on morale if it goes on long.

In this case I don't think they'd bother forcing them out (imminently) but rather go for containment as a matter of strategy.

Quite apart from the direct losses on the east bank Ukraine has to supply every bullet, every gun and every meal across the open Dniepr as well as sending replacement/ extra soldiers and while doing so they're a perfect target for drones, mortars and artillery. Even HMG and 20mm cannon will shred those boats, and their foothold is certainly not big enough to have the river out of range of cannons (and probably not HMG either, to be honest). They can't get tanks or heavy vehicles across so there's very little chance/ threat of a break out; might as well just sit back and lob easy shots at the supply lines and FAB500s at the bridgehead.

(Does make me wonder what happened to the Antonivka bridgehead, got lots (comparatively) of videos of the Russians lobbing bombs at it a few months ago but basically nothing from the Ukrainian side. I kind of presume it isn't there any more, but who knows)

[pmp10]

Ukraine may mobilize another 500k men.
No end in sight so far. 

[Mamoulian War]

6 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Ukraine may mobilize another 500k men.
No end in sight so far. 

Of course not, as Russia started to execute their 2026 occupation plan starting near Kupyansk

 

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/mehr-land-das-ist-putins-kriegsplan-fuer-die-naechsten-drei-jahre-86419892.bild.html

[Malcador]

7 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Ukraine may mobilize another 500k men.
No end in sight so far. 

Wonder if that's realistic. 

[Lexx]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

Of course not, as Russia started to execute their 2026 occupation plan starting near Kupyansk

 

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/mehr-land-das-ist-putins-kriegsplan-fuer-die-naechsten-drei-jahre-86419892.bild.html

Please do not under any circumstances ever link to the Bild. This is the worst news organization in all of Germany and no credibility of any kind should ever be given to it.

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, Lexx said:

Please do not under any circumstances ever link to the Bild. This is the worst news organization in all of Germany and no credibility of any kind should ever be given to it.

Note taken, thank you  

[Gorth]

9 hours ago, Lexx said:

Please do not under any circumstances ever link to the Bild. This is the worst news organization in all of Germany and no credibility of any kind should ever be given to it.

I was about to say the same thing

And it’s well meant advice. Bild is to Germany what the Daily Mail is to the UK

[Malcador]

23 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Despite that, it looks like correct tactical decision, all I have seen from Russian side for last two months messages like this, but in even more pessimistic and gloomy mood If Russia was not able to supply Kherson through Dnepr, it’s silly to presume, that UA is thinking, that they would be able to sustain supply themselves It’s definitely one big bait, which is working good, as they moved some time ago the best UAV unit’s here (Magyar’s Wings), which are hunting the Russians day and night.

 

 

Seems both sides in this war can't think of more than just playing kill ratio games.

[Mamoulian War]

18 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Seems both sides in this war can't think of more than just playing kill ratio games.

It’s hard to not play kill ratio games, when one side is sending one meat wave after another

 

[Malcador]

God I hate YouTube thumbnails. Saw that, not sure I buy that's their plan to play with western opinion as opposed to...just keep attacking their enemy to try to retain initiative.  

[Zoraptor]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Seems both sides in this war can't think of more than just playing kill ratio games.

Haven't been many 21st century wars where they didn't play kill ratio games.

It's pretty clear now that neither side is going to win via the Subotai/ Khalid ibn al Walid/ John Churchill/ Napoleon (in his own mind) route of glorious strategy wedded to perfect tactical implementation. That leaves, well, the far more prosaic grinding the other into the dirt à la Grant/ Haig/ Chuikov. And in the end kill ratio/ attrition is everything there.

Bit of hair splitting maybe but I'd probably call it keeping up the pressure rather than maintaining initiative. Mostly because I don't really think the Russians have the initiative yet, though I think it's fair to say that the Ukrainians have lost it at least.

[xzar_monty]

3 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Bit of hair splitting maybe but I'd probably call it keeping up the pressure rather than maintaining initiative. Mostly because I don't really think the Russians have the initiative yet, though I think it's fair to say that the Ukrainians have lost it at least.

Apologies, but since this is a forum with role-players on it, it's hard to avoid very bad jokes along the lines of "It would be quite a feat for either side to improve their initiative", whenever I see terms like that.

[majestic]

Should have taken a page from Owlcat's book and stacked dexterity on their characters right from the start. Fixing initiative after starting with low dex is pretty hard, and Russia has an advantage, as the pickpocket background gives an initiative bonus.

 

 

I'll get my coat.

[Malcador]

3 hours ago, majestic said:

Should have taken a page from Owlcat's book and stacked dexterity on their characters right from the start. Fixing initiative after starting with low dex is pretty hard, and Russia has an advantage, as the pickpocket background gives an initiative bonus.

 

 

I'll get my coat.

And then we'd rejoice as the war would crash and end.

[Mamoulian War]

22 hours ago, Malcador said:

God I hate YouTube thumbnails. Saw that, not sure I buy that's their plan to play with western opinion as opposed to...just keep attacking their enemy to try to retain initiative.  

I know, pretty hard to believe that, when a person had no chance to experience Russian mindset. To me, it’s pretty plausible reasoning behind what they are doing. Regaining initiative is just an extra bonus.

[BruceVC]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/21/us/politics/russian-assets-ukraine.html 

Some good news, the West and specifically the US is moving closer to being able to seize the $300 billion of frozen Russian assets that will then be used to fund Ukraine and continue the war against Russia

If this happens there will be an inescapable irony with Russian assets funding the war against .....Russia

Edited December 22, 2023 by BruceVC

[Malcador]

7 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

I know, pretty hard to believe that, when a person had no chance to experience Russian mindset. To me, it’s pretty plausible reasoning behind what they are doing. Regaining initiative is just an extra bonus.

I dunno, seems to be pretty Western centric to think that's the main goal as opposed to the simple idea of keep attacking your enemy (especially with Israel and domestic US issues affecting support) , Russian domestic concerns perhaps. 

[xzar_monty]

I wonder if this is true: https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/putin-patrushev-plan-prigozhin-assassination-428d5ed8

The Wall Street Journal has at least been a very trustworthy source, but I'm not sure if that holds anymore. (Good American newspapers tend to be an awful lot better than the better English newspapers, just as American publishers are head and shoulders above their British counterparts when it comes to fact-checking, editing and overall quality. Sometimes the difference is astonishing. John Cleese, for instance, wrote about this briefly in his memoir.)

[Mamoulian War]

5 hours ago, Malcador said:

I dunno, seems to be pretty Western centric to think that's the main goal as opposed to the simple idea of keep attacking your enemy (especially with Israel and domestic US issues affecting support) , Russian domestic concerns perhaps. 

Well I do not say this is 100% correct assessment, but from my experience, as much West does not understand the East, East does not understand the West. So from my PoV, the assessment is plausible enough. But all I can say, that after what has been happening with Hungary still vetoing 50 billion EUR help, and MAGAs blocking US contribution, Russia considers us weaker than ever. We had an edge, which has been lost due to stupid decision in the West, and Russia is trying to bank on it as much as possible.

[xzar_monty]

7 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

But all I can say, that after what has been happening with Hungary still vetoing 50 billion EUR help, and MAGAs blocking US contribution, Russia considers us weaker than ever. We had an edge, which has been lost due to stupid decision in the West, and Russia is trying to bank on it as much as possible.

To the extent that the East / West division makes sense, I cannot but agree. It seems certain that Russia regards "the West" as not only weak but stupid, too, and even more so than it previously did. This, incidentally, is where an autocrat such as Putin has a clear edge: he doesn't have to think about any forthcoming elections, whereas everbody in the West has to.

[majestic]

To be brutally blunt, we in the West - or at least our politicians - would not have to fear our elections either if our elected officials were not as incompetent, corrupt and contemptible as the very same autocrats they love to criticise. Recently, our chancellor was filmed stating that he is sick of people complaining about rising food prices and not being able to afford a decent hot meal for their children when a burger with fries at McDonald's is 3.5€.

Instead of apologizing and doing something about the (still) overpriced food in Austria, he doubled down. There was an investigation if there's been illegal price fixing between the large players of the grocery market, and it predictably found no evidence thereof. But what evidence would exist in this day and age? Price fixing no longer requires the active participation of employees of a company: they just set their price finding algorithms to the desired gross margins and to not undercut the competition, and if everyone does that, prices will rise in relative unison.

In reality, grocery prices in Austria are 30% higher than in Germany, in spite of having similar labor costs, energy costs and, well, virtually the same product lineups. The actual difference between Austria and Germany is that in Germany, there are more than two companies (Rewe and Spar) competing in the regular grocery market and more than two companies (Hofer/Aldi and Lidl) competing in the discount market. What else is needed as evidence? It is painfully obvious that we have an oligopoly problem, and even steadfast believers in the virtues of the free market know that this leads to rising prices and a loss of quality through complacency.

We do have a legal means of recourse for that. It would be entirely possible to forcibly break up the REWE group, or if that is deemed too radical, simply make them have to give up half their stores to competing chains. Instead, the companies involved explain the difference in pricing on the number of stores and the generally higher cost of transportation, and nobody questions that, there even have been interviews in the large newspapers with the CEOs of Spar and Rewe where they detailed that their net earnings did not go up in the past two years, while conveniently forgetting to add that their investments of said profit (they have begun building more energy efficient stores now that energy prices spiked) more than doubled in the same time. In the case of Spar that meant an increase in profit of almost 50%, in spite of higher energy, supply and labor costs. Claiming that their margins did not increase unduly is just ludicrous, and a competent journalist would have questioned that immediately. You can guess once if they did. Spoiler: no, they did not. Of course not. Newspapers earn a pretty penny from including grocery ads, and they do not bite the hand that feeds them.

When politiicans of the opposing parties suggested that the government create a price comparison and statistics portal so consumers would at least realize how much they are being gouged, they replied that it would be too difficult to implement. Yes, so difficult to implement that the first price scraping website made by one person went up a week later, detailing the price differences and just how much prices rise in unison between "competitors" in Austria. Now people can look at the price gouging and realize that the government is not doing its job, which in this case would be to simply apply existing antitrust legislation.

Instead, we are staring at a possible Freedom Party lead government, headed by Herbert Kickl, someone who publically calls himself the upcoming Volkskanzler, which is what the national socialists of yore called the Führer. Great. Just... great. While I have never been an optimist, it does not look like the future is going to be better tomorrow.

Edited December 22, 2023 by majestic