Ukraine Conflict - The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his

[Zoraptor]

Prigozhin claims to have taken Bakhmut. He's been pretty much 100% with Wagner progress at least, and there's some ancillary evidence. Denied, at this point, by Ukraine.

We also now have a Ukrainian equivalent of Shoigu/ Gerasimov is dead!?!?!?!???? with Zaluzhny and Ihor. About as likely to be true, too.

[Mamoulian War]

 

[Mamoulian War]

And some analysis, what might have been hit deep in occupied territory near/at Mariupol Airport with Tochka-U or Storm Shadow last night.

 

[Zoraptor]

Eh, Ukraine released footage of fighting in Soledar after it had fallen too. Pretty much every time Prigozhin has announced something territorial we get a denial from Ukraine, then pictures from Wagner then a lot of "doesn't prove anything maybe it's been retaken"* type stuff on Twitter. Well yeah, maybe.

*or for Soledar, been staged in a Russian salt mine.

[BruceVC]

https://www.reuters.com/world/g7-signals-long-term-ukraine-support-russia-woos-global-south-2023-05-21/

A really productive and consequential  G7 meeting that includes F-16 confirmation, additional sanctions on Russia  and additional military and financial support for Ukraine. The West also reaffirmed its continued long-term support for Ukraine 

Zelensky was there as well and met with leaders of the global south like Modi from India 

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/20/asia/zelensky-modi-meet-g7-japan-hiroshima-intl-hnk/index.html

[Mamoulian War]

10 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Eh, Ukraine released footage of fighting in Soledar after it had fallen too. Pretty much every time Prigozhin has announced something territorial we get a denial from Ukraine, then pictures from Wagner then a lot of "doesn't prove anything maybe it's been retaken"* type stuff on Twitter. Well yeah, maybe.

*or for Soledar, been staged in a Russian salt mine.

Funny that you mention Soledar, where Wagner have claimed capture of the city, then RU MoD claimed that it is not true, then RU MoD claimed the capture of the city, then UA MoD, denied the claim, and then there was one more week of fighting reported from city before UA army fully retreated

For now, Zelenskyi has released official statement, that the city is not completely captured, and there are still operations performed by UA forces inside the city, although pretty vaguelly So I expect pretty much the same as in Soledar. Few more days of fighting inside the city before UA army either completely retreats, or pushes forward with the encirclement of the city, which they started about a week ago.

It would be pretty ridiculous, if they would manage to encircle the city in a month or two, after RU spent 224 days and tens of thousands of meatbags, trying to get the prime example of Pyrhic Victory. Probably it will not happen, but this would definitelly break a lot of necks in Kremlin

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/21/7403171/

[Malcador]

16 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

We also now have a Ukrainian equivalent of Shoigu/ Gerasimov is dead!?!?!?!???? with Zaluzhny and Ihor. About as likely to be true, too.

This is a war of immortals, Russian generals resurrecting last year

[xzar_monty]

All those fires in Russia within the past year and a bit: how many of them are suspicious? And all those Russian deaths in the same period of time: how many of them are suspicious? Is this bit of news suspicious: https://russianfreepress.com/2023/05/21/deputy-minister-of-science-and-husband-of-singer-diana-gurtskaya-pyotr-kucherenko-died-on-the-plane-he-was-46-years-old/

Damned if I know.

[Malcador]

F-16 discussion, on Twitter, sadly.

[HoonDing]

me thinks another 200 billion is needed to beat the rabble with shovels

[Mamoulian War]

**** Girkin has also decided to give some analysis on the Bakhmut “victory”.

Also UA Gen. Syrsky has released statement, that Bakhmut is close to operational encirclement by UA forces. How much of that is true and how much of that is psyops, is impossible to predict, but if that would be true, it would be really hilarious (if man can say something like that in a situation where hundreds of lives are lost daily  ) turn of events… Meanwhile more of the flanks near Bakhmut have been cleared of Russian presence in last 24 hours.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/21/7403178/

 

[Mamoulian War]

58 minutes ago, HoonDing said:

me thinks another 200 billion is needed to beat the rabble with shovels

I think your math is little bit off. Russia has killed/maimed 0.077% of its population (100k) to conquer 0.00024% (41.2sqkm) of Ukraine’s territory. So if the current loss rate sustains, Russia will only need to sacrifice 1 billion more of its people to capture the rest of Ukraine.

 

Disclaimer: Calculations provided by @wartranslated 

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, HoonDing said:

me thinks another 200 billion is needed to beat the rabble with shovels

After F-16s, I think they'll ask for spare ICBMs.

[Mamoulian War]

Free Russia Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps are claiming to have under control a village in Belgorod People’s Republic.

https://t.me/legionoffreedom/785

edit: two villages in Belgorod People’s Republic have been liberated from the oppresion of Russian regime, and there are reported clashes ongoing in the third village on the way to the capital.

[Malcador]

Can't wait to see ISW's breathless update today.

[Mamoulian War]

Police, FSB and Rosgvardia in Belgorod Krai on High Alert.

 

And another Mi-8 chopper crashed there.

[pmp10]

G7 has been warning that Ukraine cannot turn into a frozen conflict.
Pretty surprising and they didn't seem to mind beforehand.

If this is a serious position then F16s can be seen more as a stick to get Russia to negotiate rather than a carrot for Ukraine. 

[Mamoulian War]

Borrel has confirmed today, that the first UA pilots are already started F-16 training in EU.

 

In Other news, even Russian Gray Zone channel (Prigozhin fans) are taking piss oit of Russian army defending Bilhorod

 

[Mamoulian War]

Looks like today’s events in Bilhorod are a part of a larger scheme. Budanov released an appeal to Russian soldiers to use the “I want to live” initiative, to save their lives, and Magyar is announcing something big tonight…

 

 

[Zoraptor]

Ah yes, the people who were wandering around bravely shooting up children a couple of months ago, led by the MMA enthusiast and self proclaimed neo nazi Denis 'White Rex' Nikitin.

Do I need to repost the same links about them being an acknowledged part of the Ukrainian military as I did that time too? Probably not, since their 'liberation' video involved them, uh, wearing Ukrainian uniform.

[Mamoulian War]

But, but, but Ukraine has denied any connection to Belgorod rebels but urges Russia to stop bombing them & abide by a Minsk-style format whereby Moscow will get control of border back only *after* a totally legit referendum on the status of the region takes place!

And besides, such weapons and badges, which they are using, can be bought at any army shop, or found left over at any abandoned barn or mine

[HoonDing]

Funny how Spring Offensive became Summer Offensive overnight in Fake News Media.

[Gorth]

I'm not a fan of just dropping a Youtube link and a here you go, bye kind of post... there are lots of videos out there now about the war and it can be a bit hard to filter the interesting ones from the 117th iteration of a subject covered exactly the same by 116 previous videos. This one caught my interest when I watched it, because it's a guy collecting info (no not "doxxing",  but trying to create a profile of the mindset of Russian soldiers) from social media posts. Very interesting (and sad) IMHO. He shows a number of different examples...

 

 

[xzar_monty]

55 minutes ago, Gorth said:

This one caught my interest when I watched it, because it's a guy collecting info (no not "doxxing",  but trying to create a profile of the mindset of Russian soldiers) from social media posts. Very interesting (and sad) IMHO.

Some months ago, there was a really good article in my daily newspaper by a Russian journalist who had gone through his circle of friends and acquaintances and explored their ways of thinking and justifying the war (or not). The most fascinating, frightening and sad group was what he called the "Z people" who were not open to any kind of discussion and who were able to either ignore or rationalize away any counter-argument presented to them. So while some people were able to openly ponder a question such as "But why did we need to invade?", the Z people either brushed it aside or had an answer that was clearly illogical or absurd but still convinced them completely.

Of course, this is a fairly common phenomenon: when you discuss climate change, for example, there are some people who are completely convinced of their position and equally unable to even rationally consider other views. So it's a question of psychology rather than education, intelligence or interest. It's also fascinating that people's thinking can be compartmentalized so that while they may be very intelligent in general, they can also be completely "stuck" in some areas of their thinking. A good example would be someone like Frank Zappa whose unrepentant attitude towards smoking could not be swayed no matter what; in fact, he once said bluntly: "I am not buying the data", when the hazards were pointed out  to him.

The sad thing about this kind of thinking in Zappa's case, for example, was that his scepticism towards governance and officialdom was in itself perfectly justified: the US government really does have a terrible record when it comes to lying to its citizens, and Zappa himself had some pretty awful early experiences with how arbitrarily and unjustly the US can treat its people. But obviously it does not follow from this that the government is always lying.

When it comes to lying, misdirection, false information and so on, Russians are in a much worse place than quite a lot of other people in other areas of the world -- and this makes the current situation so much more sinister.

[BruceVC]

59 minutes ago, Gorth said:

I'm not a fan of just dropping a Youtube link and a here you go, bye kind of post... there are lots of videos out there now about the war and it can be a bit hard to filter the interesting ones from the 117th iteration of a subject covered exactly the same by 116 previous videos. This one caught my interest when I watched it, because it's a guy collecting info (no not "doxxing",  but trying to create a profile of the mindset of Russian soldiers) from social media posts. Very interesting (and sad) IMHO. He shows a number of different examples...

 

 

Thats a good video and its a perfect length, its not unsurprising to see the different views and how the war has shaped those views. You hear everything from normal fatigue to warmongering 

I found the PTSD guy particularly evocative and haunting with views on life and how war has changed his world view