Ukraine Conflict - Beware lest in your anxiety to avoid war you obtain a master

[pmp10]

The tank matter is pretty much over: no Leopards for Ukraine anytime soon.
Which also means no greater escalation in armaments on the western side.

Got to hand it to Scholz, he played his hand marvelously at sabotaging that effort. 

[Lexx]

 I habe absolutely no idea why they don't want to send tanks. None of the arguments make sense to me. I guess russia really must have some serious dirt on them for this to go that way.

[Gorth]

28 minutes ago, Lexx said:

 I habe absolutely no idea why they don't want to send tanks. None of the arguments make sense to me. I guess russia really must have some serious dirt on them for this to go that way.

After the UK military blew up the Nord Stream 2 gas line, Russia doesn't really have any squeeze on Germany other than the threat of total nuclear war, in case any of those tanks ever fires a shell across the Russian border (intentional, accidental or imagined)...

There is also that thing about Germany's past that still plays a significant role for their arms export and German military engagements outside its borders.

Edit: Japan is quite similar in that regard iirc

 

 

[pmp10]

4 hours ago, Gorth said:

After the UK military blew up the Nord Stream 2 gas line[...]

You know you cannot just drop a line like that and not provide some explanation.

4 hours ago, Lexx said:

 I habe absolutely no idea why they don't want to send tanks. None of the arguments make sense to me. I guess russia really must have some serious dirt on them for this to go that way.

My simples answer is that he wants the war over sooner rather than later to salvage what he can from dealings with Russia.
A movement for escalation was gaining momentum and had to be nipped in the bud. 
I'm sure he will still agree at some point, but only when there is no more chances of moving the west from 'Too Little / Too Late' aid trajectory.

Also there are rumors of cut-throat negotiations between Berlin and Washington concerning much more than just tank delivery. 
Chances are this aid is seen as one more form of leverage.

[Gorth]

45 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

You know you cannot just drop a line like that and not provide some explanation.

Sadly, the Swedish news article I had is no more. Google is useless as it will either give you the Russian version or the Iranian corroboration of the Russian statements. What was interesting about the original news report was, that Swedish investigators announced they had found conclusive evidence, identifying who was behind it and it was to be announced at a follow up press conference.... then complete radio silence and trying to kill off the subject through prolonged silence.

My assumption is (because it's just an assumption), that the forensic evidence found was uncomfortable and best not shared with the public. Of course, it could be sabotage performed by disgruntled Danish pearl divers whipped into a frenzy by Greenpeace or Norwegian divers trying to stop the competition to their oil fields in the North Sea. Or some western country blew up the pipeline to force Germanys hand. Only the UK and France has the capability to do such an operation and France hasn't successfully blown up anything naval related since 'Rainbow Warrior' in Auckland harbour in 1985 (an act of state terrorism that is best forgotten... at least according to France). Hence why I believe the UK to be behind it (it sure as heck makes no sense for Russia to do it, as it was one of the few means of leverage they had and all they have to do is shut off the valve)

 

[xzar_monty]

To scholz, verb: "to vociferously maintain that an all-important thing must be done but simultaenously attempt to ensure it will not happen".

[Malcador]

Wonder why the US doesn't just send Abrams as well. They have enough to backfill Leopards and increase their market share easily.

[kanisatha]

12 hours ago, Lexx said:

 I habe absolutely no idea why they don't want to send tanks. None of the arguments make sense to me. I guess russia really must have some serious dirt on them for this to go that way.

Yeah the backlash against Germany has been quite severe. Let's see if Scholz continues to feel it is worth it.

3 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Wonder why the US doesn't just send Abrams as well. They have enough to backfill Leopards and increase their market share easily.

The US side has explained this, saying they don't have any opposition per se to giving Abrams but that training and maintenance support for Abrams would be too complex for Ukraine. German Leopards are much easier for Ukraine to absorb and handle.

[Malcador]

13 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Yeah the backlash against Germany has been quite severe. Let's see if Scholz continues to feel it is worth it.

The US side has explained this, saying they don't have any opposition per se to giving Abrams but that training and maintenance support for Abrams would be too complex for Ukraine. German Leopards are much easier for Ukraine to absorb and handle.

Abrams seems less impressive with the US reasoning over time.  But send some anyway, their usefulness isn't required versus their being donated and thus allowing the better suited Leopards to be sent.  Well unless the requirement is 1:1 anyway.

 

[xzar_monty]

Some figures, with caveats, and other interesting details.

@kanisatha: From what I have read, Scholz is one of those people who don't take advice and won't bow to external pressure. To what extent this is true, I don't know. (Gerhard Schröder appears to be another, and apparently a certain incapacity to self-reflection is also one of his defining characteristics. The extent of Russia's "hold" on him is an interesting question for future historians. And since @Lexx mentioned Russia and dirt, another extremely interesting historical question is that of Russia's dirt on Trump.)

Edited January 22, 2023 by xzar_monty

[Mamoulian War]

Few days old, but it is worth to mention it. Looks like, there are still few good people left in Russia. They are silently creating small memorial sites for the civilian victims of the attack on Dnipro housing. Although some of them were immediately taken away by police after putting their flowers on memorial.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/18/7385430/

[pmp10]

So the summary of heavy weapon pledges at and shortly before Ramstein are about:

~170* soviet tanks
375 western and soviet IFVs
1000 western APCs
200 mostly western artillery pieces (half self-propelled)

Not bad, but (artillery aside) this will cover roughly 3 months of serious fighting.
Ironically this should also be about what Russia can produce in 3 months.

* depending on what Poland has in mind and what the Czech delivery schedule is

 

[Elerond]

16 hours ago, Lexx said:

 I habe absolutely no idea why they don't want to send tanks. None of the arguments make sense to me. I guess russia really must have some serious dirt on them for this to go that way.

Swiss news paper speculated that reason behind Germany's reluctance is that Rheinmetall is updating their production facilities to produce their new Panther KF51, and their don't currently have capacity of replace tanks donated to Ukraine and they fear that they will lose European market to General Dynamics, which is probably reason why Germany wants US to donate their tanks too, so that General Dynamics needs to replace those first before they can start to poach Rheinmetall's customers.

[Elerond]

23 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

So the summary of heavy weapon pledges at and shortly before Ramstein are about:

~170* soviet tanks
375 western and soviet IFVs
1000 western APCs
200 mostly western artillery pieces (half self-propelled)

Not bad, but (artillery aside) this will cover roughly 3 months of serious fighting.
Ironically this should also be about what Russia can produce in 3 months.

* depending on what Poland has in mind and what the Czech delivery schedule is

 

Russia has not capacity to produce 170 tanks or 375 IFVs in 3 months.

Russia's own estimate of their production capacity is 200-250 tanks in year, from which most are T-72 variables.

Highest known number of produced tanks in Russia after year 1993 has been 175 in 2008, which was more than rest of the world combined in that year (most of them were produced to for other countries mainly India).  

Even though Russia has facilities to produce quite lot tanks in year, it is questioned if they have enough components to do them as their production lines have relied to Western especially German components.

Soviet Union and Russia were able to produce 339 BMP-3s between 1987-1994 and Russia ,as far as is known, has not increased their BMP-3 production capacity. They also are capable to produce BMP-1 and BMP-2 variants but not so much that they could produce 375 IFVs in 3 months.

Russia has produced ~900 self-propelled artilleries (889 2S19 Msta variants and 10-30 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV) between 1988 and now, so they probably can't make 200 of them in 3 months especially when 2S19 Msta are build on same facilities as T-72s causing need to decide which they will if they want to make both tanks and self-propelled artilleries

APC is so general term that it is probably possible to produce 1000 vehicles that you could call APC in 3 months. 

[Zoraptor]

They'd only need to make 95 SPGs to match the donations, the other 96 are towed artillery. That's an artificial comparison anyway, since it's only SPG/Hs rather than self propelled artillery in general, which would include a bunch of other stuff like MLRS. None of which were donated this time around. Either way, not really important.

I'd suspect that at least part of the problem Germany has with supplying Leopards is that there would be a lot donated- a lot more than the 12 (? or 14, or 10) Challengers- and they will get destroyed pretty regularly. It's one thing to see a Turkish Leopard getting blown up by an ISIS jihadi with a 1960s Malyutka when the same week you see a Saudi Abrams getting blown up by a qat chewing shoeless Houthi, with a 1960s Malyutka; it's another when it's only the Leopards getting blown up even if the military destroying them is a bit more advanced than a literal goatherd with gun.

[they may well also want the inevitable chorus of complaints about how hard Abrams are to maintain. What was it? 40 out of 130 odd Iraqi Abrams able to used at any one time due to maintenance? Though on the positive side, even more impossible for ISIS to maintain the ones they captured]

Edited January 22, 2023 by Zoraptor

[Mamoulian War]

Intel/rumours on Russian next moves.

 

[Mamoulian War]

And looks like, that Baerbock “greenlit” donating Leopard 2s to UA by Poland.

 

[Gorth]

I'm sure there is a subtle but important difference between "Occupational Forces" and "Occupation Forces"

[pmp10]

10 hours ago, Elerond said:

Russia has not capacity to produce 170 tanks or 375 IFVs in 3 months.

Not new T90s or BMP3s certainly, but by now they have mobilized the industry and are refurbishing T62s and BMP2s.
So the best guess is they are capable of these numbers and maybe more by raiding strategic stores and cannibalizing mothballed hardware. 
Chances are they can do this for a few years as well. 

7 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

And looks like, that Baerbock “greenlit” donating Leopard 2s to UA by Poland.

 

Word is that US got really annoyed at making demand for Abrams delivery too public, so this might be making amends. 
Or maybe they just underestimated the pressure this would produce. 

Either way we will see if that 'Leopard coalition' Poland kept talking about is actually real.

[xzar_monty]

Some footage intended as comic relief. Surely the thread can withstand it? My rarified and sophisticated impression was, like, WTF.

 

[Mamoulian War]

Morocco as a first African country is sending thei tanks to Ukraine. The article mentions another north african country, willing to help, but I ahve not found who it might be. IMHO only Algeria or Tunisia are the likely candidates to be that second one.

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-morocco-sends-soviet-made-tanks-to-ukraine

[kanisatha]

23 hours ago, Malcador said:

Abrams seems less impressive with the US reasoning over time.  But send some anyway, their usefulness isn't required versus their being donated and thus allowing the better suited Leopards to be sent.  Well unless the requirement is 1:1 anyway.

 

Haha, yes a US congressman literally said this to Biden, suggesting we send one Abrams to Ukraine so that Scholz won't have that excuse anymore.

[kanisatha]

16 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Intel/rumours on Russian next moves.

 

Looks like the Russians are very desperately trying to go on offense right now across the whole frontline to take as much territory as they can before all the new Western equipment shifts the battlefield in Ukraine's favor.

7 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Morocco as a first African country is sending thei tanks to Ukraine. The article mentions another north african country, willing to help, but I ahve not found who it might be. IMHO only Algeria or Tunisia are the likely candidates to be that second one.

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-morocco-sends-soviet-made-tanks-to-ukraine

Yeah at that recent summit on aid for Ukraine, more than 50 countries peldged to send military aid. So that is definitely more than just Western countries. The US is even pressuring Central and South American countries to send lethal aid.

[Mamoulian War]

18 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Haha, yes a US congressman literally said this to Biden, suggesting we send one Abrams to Ukraine so that Scholz won't have that excuse anymore.

A lot of our politologues (is that a correct english word?) have suggested this solution as well So hopefully something could be done to get through this "obstacle" as soon as possible

[Elerond]

8 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Not new T90s or BMP3s certainly, but by now they have mobilized the industry and are refurbishing T62s and BMP2s.

They use same facilities to refurbish than they use to build new ones. Refurbishing is faster, although that depends lots of how long vehicle has been in storage, but still they don't have known facilities even refurbish their stored vehicles in that speed.