Ukraine Conflict - Beware lest in your anxiety to avoid war you obtain a master

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

and yes UA can still lose, if Putin will be able to throw another 200k walking corpses to front

I don't think it's a question of "if" Putin will be able to throw another 200k bodies (low estimate) to the front. It's whether or not the increase in training, technology and intelligence info in the UA army can keep up with the numerical discrepancy.

 

As hinted at before, I was wrong about my initial assumption on how the war would pan out when it happened anyway (because I didn't think it would in the first place). I based my assumption on the UA's performance against the separatists the preceding five years and that was very not impressive. Hence the thought it would be two armies on the same level, but outnumbered 3 to 1 and the outcome a foregone conclusion. Because NATO decided this was a good place to wage a proxy war and suddenly shower UA with western hardware, real time satellite intelligence info, etc. the "levels" of the armies changed rapidly. Those NLAW's and Javelins in the first two weeks of the conflict made a significant difference and the difference has only gotten a lot greater in the almost a year that has passed since. I know from the family back in Denmark, that UA troops have been rotated in and out of the country receiving "NATO doctrine" training in training camps before going back to Ukraine again. I wouldn't be surprised if that had happened in other western countries. It's now a war that isn't only decided by numbers, but propaganda (public morale), technology, fighting spirit of the armed forces and availability of resources (who runs first out of bullets and fuel). If the west decides they no longer want a proxy war and cut off UA to fend for itself, I do think the outcome a foregone conclusion, but I also think they will keep it up for a while yet. Still hoping for some kind of long term profitable outcome.

[pmp10]

8 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

and yes UA can still lose, if Putin will be able to throw another 200k walking corpses to front

The only reason Ukraine might be 'winning' is because people don't look past short-term survival of the country.
So far all efforts to change Russia's direction have failed and chances are they can eventually ruin Ukraine with sheer persistence.

That is if they haven't already done so. 

[Mamoulian War]

13 hours ago, Malcador said:

Hopefully not, can't really see that accomplishing much other than inspiring some Sabaton songs in the future, as opposed to just leaving for another line of defense elsewhere.  Disappointed not seeing as many 'pinch of salt' puns about Soledar though, hah..

I have found a pretty plausible report, why they are still staying in the western outskirts of Soledar, despite it being completely destroyed. The plausibility of this video is backed by a video posted by the guy from BBC/Pravda article (Magyar). I do not know if I can post it here, but the mentioned second video can be found on Special Kherson Cat. Posted yesterday at 10.28PM CET. Look for snow, railroads, house with green roof and 25 unlucky winners of daily drawing in Lada lottery. Coordinates 48°41'19.3"N 38°03'13.0"E. The video by Magyar is very fresh, probably even from yesterday, as the RuAF are walking from the northwest part of Soledar to the South, in the western parts of the village.

 

[Malcador]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64274755

So Challengers going, guess the Brits want bragging rights.

[Sarex]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64274755

So Challengers going, guess the Brits want bragging rights.

Interested to see how they fair in combat if not how much of a difference they make. There is a myth around them that not one was destroyed in combat.

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, Sarex said:

Interested to see how they fair in combat if not how much of a difference they make. There is a myth around them that not one was destroyed in combat.

They should do well, any tank will not do well if people can take free shots at the sides or rear.  I do recall one mythical story of a Challenger resisting 70 RPG-7s in one engagement. Guess the infantry had the day off there.

 

Edited January 14, 2023 by Malcador

[xzar_monty]

On 1/13/2023 at 9:05 AM, Gorth said:

What exactly is wrong with being wrong, if you're flexible enough to acknowledge you were wrong and change your view (as long as nobody suffers injury or loss as a consequence)?

Edit: I know I was wrong when this started because I didn't think it possible to make the kind of mistakes Putin did... and changed my mind as I saw how things unfolded

Nothing, of course, as Zoraptor already said. But two asides:

Temperamental differences are not irrelevant here. Christopher Hitchens, in a fairly uncommon moment of self-awareness, admitted that both arguing and winning arguments were so dear to his heart that he often continued to argue for a long time in a losing position while knowing he was irretrievably in a losing position. I also have a friend like this; it's wisest to just stop, because history has shown that the other person is not going to, no matter what. I submit it's safe to say that people like this are not unknown on internet forums, either. (Btw, Hitchens was great. But that's not all he was.)

Second, when I asked about which forum members said what in the past, I certainly had no intention to start any unpleasantries between Gromnir and Zoraptor.

[xzar_monty]

Stuff like this in the Russian media is both hard to believe[*] and somewhat upsetting.

Twitter link to a brief interview:

Background on the person interviewed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Popkov

 

[*] Conceivably, it isn't true.

[xzar_monty]

Wow: the president of Serbia has asked Wagner to stop recruiting Serbians, as it's against Serbian law. Dozens of Serbs have already been convicted for fighting in Ukraine for the Russians -- but I wonder what the actual numbers are.

Serbia's position is fairly complex. After all, it also wants to join the EU.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

Wow: the president of Serbia has asked Wagner to stop recruiting Serbians, as it's against Serbian law. Dozens of Serbs have already been convicted for fighting in Ukraine for the Russians -- but I wonder what the actual numbers are.

Serbia's position is fairly complex. After all, it also wants to join the EU.

TBH, I am not very surprised to read that. Our government was during 2008-2020 also pretty much pro-russian, and despite that in 2014, after attack on Donbas, they pretty fast changed our laws and forbid our citizens to join any military group (state or private) without explicit approval of the President. Even now, when we are more pro western, out of 22 people asking for permit to joining UA army, only 7 were granted with this permit.

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

Our government

Sorry, I forget: are we talking about the Czech Republic or Slovakia? I think it was one of these two. Apologies if I'm completely wrong.

[Chilloutman]

Slovakia, I don't have to do anything with Slovakian government xD

[Malcador]

Arestovych resigned for saying they intercepted the missile in Dnipro, heh.

[Mamoulian War]

According to this guy, who claims to track Wagner casualties in Russian media, there are daily 100-200 individual obituaries posted on Wagner social medias.

 

[Gfted1]

Ukrainian interior minister killed in helicopter crash near Kyiv | Reuters

[Mamoulian War]

Canada will provide 200 APCs to Ukraine.

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

Canada will provide 200 APCs to Ukraine.

Somewhat funny that these are law enforcement vehicles yet are ok in a warzone

[Sarex]

34 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Somewhat funny that these are law enforcement vehicles yet are ok in a warzone

Also what did they need 200 APC for... How many more do they have left...lol...

[majestic]

All I know of the Canadian law enforcement comes from Due South, so why are they having APCs and not white dogs?

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, Sarex said:

Also what did they need 200 APC for... How many more do they have left...lol...

Not sure the police here use them, the Toronto ones don't.  Surprised we didn't send LAVs or something.  I love how OTT the press statements are getting

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada-purchasing-200-armoured-personnel-carriers-for-ukraine

“This is a war not only for democracy in Ukraine, but also for our own freedom,” Anand told reporters in French during a Wednesday afternoon press conference."

 

[xzar_monty]

Interesting thread highlighting two different approaches to warfare as currently on display:

 

[Mamoulian War]

This donation will triple the amount of Cesars in Ukraine

 

[Malcador]

Good bit of AFVs being donated, CV90s from Sweden, Bradleys, Strykers. 

[pmp10]

Talks about providing German tanks for Ukraine are at a deadlock.
Germany won't move without US and neither country is about to do as it's told.

[Mamoulian War]

I am curious, how the Rammstein ends... in the meanwhile Netherlands is hitting it out of the park