Ukraine Conflict - Beware lest in your anxiety to avoid war you obtain a master

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

3 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Imagine re-reading any thread on this forum.

I enjoy the pain.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

I guess, although if they're such trash they can't be that bad to have not been trounced yet.  Is funny watching commentary on Soledar, some mappers say the Russians have 80% of the town, others saying Ukraine's retaken half of it.  Is rather interesting both have decided to grind each other up over it.

Even the worst team, if allowed to bring 100 players, has a chance to play with Real Madrid, without throwing a towel in half-time

Anyway, for UA it is logical to try to grind down the RU, as attackers always have much much bigger casualties, and Russians do not care about theirs.

I think this meme pretty much sums up, what is going on around Bakhmut and Soledar right now...

 

[Gromnir]

so you are relying on the strawman bit... again? those as yet unseen posts quoting milley that Gromnir didn't actual criticize anyways? serious? what else is you gonna punch the stuffing outta and the attribute to Gromnir as the source o' your indignation.

is particular amusing 'cause in 2014 we did specific quote a harvard economist as 'posed to making the prediction our own, so hypocrisy much? and you do realize you are the guy who once again is trying to change the subject mater in an effort to deflect. 

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

Sheesh, that's basically the old 'do your own research' canard and staple of losing positions in internet discussions since fricking usenet.

serious, you cannot be bothered to review a couple days in february? this tack hasn't worked out well for you in the past.

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

Only way not to get things wrong is not to have an opinion, or lack the courage to state one.

actually, as we has stated so many times, when an issue is uncertain, and there is conflicting reporting, the smart move is to wait. common sense and reasonableness is not somehow confused with lacking courage. nobody (well, almost nobody) is gonna criticize if you post quotes from local police if there is a shooting incident or if you post links to reuters or wapo which quote milley regarding ukraine resistance. those is examples o' facts. milley and the police could be wrong, but the reporting o' what were said is likely factual. nevertheless, zor continues to rush headlong into the breech with his reddit conspiracy theories and misinformation. never learns.

and yeah, we brought up a generalized and nonspecific observation 'bout gaslighting and reimaging posts... and you instant saw self as the target. *chuckle* you even invented possible subject matter for our nonspecific observation? pathological.

the thing is, as noted, the generalization did apply even if we weren't specific referencing zor. sure enough you were being dismissive o' the reports o' intelligence suggesting an imminent russian invasion. 

edit: btw, anybody who thinks there is something courageous 'bout anonymous posting internet opinions is either unwell, way too invested in their internet life, or just plain stoopid.

HA! Good Fun!

 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Gromnir

[Malcador]

31 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Even the worst team, if allowed to bring 100 players, has a chance to play with Real Madrid, without throwing a towel in half-time

Anyway, for UA it is logical to try to grind down the RU, as attackers always have much much bigger casualties, and Russians do not care about theirs.

I think this meme pretty much sums up, what is going on around Bakhmut and Soledar right now..

Maybe, they do have decent units there and not just TDF meatshields like earlier.  I do hear they are getting mauled themselves, but reporting on Ukrainian dead varies with what fear they need to ratchet up to get a new weapons system most of the time. 

I'm more amazed there are still civilians in those towns.

[Mamoulian War]

22 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Maybe, they do have decent units there and not just TDF meatshields like earlier.  I do hear they are getting mauled themselves, but reporting on Ukrainian dead varies with what fear they need to ratchet up to get a new weapons system most of the time. 

I'm more amazed there are still civilians in those towns.

As far as I understood from all the reporting from investigative journalist and military experts which seem trustworthy enough to believe them, that they do not spew propaganda by one or other side, Russia pretty much lost the most elite units around Hostomel and in Kyiv, as their primary goal was to assassinate Zelenskiy and other heads of the state, which they thankfully failed to achieve. Else it would really be short operation... During that period of time, the casualties were highest on Russian and on Ukrainian side as well. Until Bakhmut started to be a thing

[Gromnir]

@xzar_monty

hope you see what am talking 'bout. we make a post in which we push back a bit on a @Gorthobservation by noting russians do military different and use tactics circa the 17th century and earlier to achieve goals westerners have difficulty understanding. 

"they don't fight as a cohesive force, they don't support each other and if something can be raped, pillaged or plundered for personal benefit, it takes priority."

is not wrong, but we observed how the situation is more complex than it might first appear on the surface, and in spite o' the perceived shortcomings o' planning and implementation o' the russian campaign in ukraine, "strategic goals were not outta reach until considerable time had elapsed, at which point morale o' troops predictable dropped and discipline eroded. should recall when this all started there were more than a few board pundits predicting ukraine wouldn't last a week, which is likely what russia was hoping to see."

were an observation that the russians perceived barbarism is maybe a bit more complicated o' an issue to tackle and we offered an article by michael kofman as reading material which is presenting the much different approach to modern war being embraced in moscow as 'posed to berlin, london, washington d.c. or virtual anywhere in the west. again, in spite o' lack o' discipline and  failure to achieve any kinda combined arms operations success, russians still looked to have a chance o' achieving goals and a few boardies even were predicting a quick russian victory. need only look at posts from january 24 if you wish. one day. regardless, maybe russians is doing war wrong, but perceived shortcomings is also 'cause they is doing war fundamental different.

...

'course very quickly we get complete off topic with zor doing the zor thing where he conjures up responses to arguments not made and defending foibles with deflection and... all o' which makes our initial observation 'bout why we didn't wanna indulge look positive prophetic, no?

HA! Good Fun!

 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Gromnir

[Gorth]

@Gromnir I've no idea if Michael Kofman's commentary applies to the initial Russian high commands strategy or not, but as events unfolded it looks like it became the de facto strategy (interesting link btw, thank you for that). Borodino, Tannenberg, Kursk... the Russian strategy just seems to historically have been to throw more men (or tanks) at an engagement than the opponent. Sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn't

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

As far as I understood from all the reporting from investigative journalist and military experts which seem trustworthy enough to believe them, that they do not spew propaganda by one or other side, Russia pretty much lost the most elite units around Hostomel and in Kyiv, as their primary goal was to assassinate Zelenskiy and other heads of the state, which they thankfully failed to achieve. Else it would really be short operation... During that period of time, the casualties were highest on Russian and on Ukrainian side as well. Until Bakhmut started to be a thing

Yep, over the campaign their A-level units are shredded, I think Ukraine's better off that way (see the TDF meatshields).  But VDV is still operating (reminds me when Kamil Galeev was golden for saying what people liked to hear ), at leas and they still have SOF roaming aroundt.  But suppose it's not a case of elite or dross.

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

Borodino, Tannenberg, Kursk

Definitely not the case in Borodino they tried to bury the French with numbers as they were pretty much matched numerically, were defending against an invader and decided to fight them tooth and nail.  Not sure if that holds in Kursk. 

I guess the "Recon Fire Complex" doctrine they have does look a bit ruthless, but it can be effective, even with very weak points.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Malcador

[Gromnir]

1 minute ago, Gorth said:

@Gromnir I've no idea if Michael Kofman's commentary applies to the initial Russian high commands strategy or not,

am unsure either. is a whole lotta guesses 'bout russian goals and strategy based on captured plans and hastily removed propaganda pieces. the invasion involved a massive and multipronged attack which also caught russian forces off guard as secrecy were maintained up to highest levels no doubt contributing to the charlie fox scenario. so many things could go wrong and did go wrong for the russians, which does make one wonder 'bout why the invasion were attempted.

however am repeating 'cause is easily forgotten, russian success were hardly viewed universal as improbable in february and for some time afterwards.  the invasion on its face was a not the kinda russian brigandry as described by kofman. even so and regardless o' fact the russians committed nowhere near enough troops to hold all or even a large portion o' ukraine, there were hardly any kinda consensus that russian efforts at regime change were doomed from the get-go.  

we tend to agree with you that once russian initial efforts failed to meet expectations, there were a return-to-form if you will, which is in part what inspired us to post the link to the article. the form russians returned to is the brigandry described by kofman and am thinking such helps to somewhat explain the difference 'tween the discipline and restraint we expect o' successful western armies compared to russian norms. "brigandry" and "raiding" is viewed negative... in the west. chevaunchee has a long and storied tradition which has only recent, relative speaking, fallen into disfavor. 

HA! Good Fun! 

[Gorth]

30 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Yep, over the campaign their A-level units are shredded, I think Ukraine's better off that way (see the TDF meatshields).  But VDV is still operating (reminds me when Kamil Galeev was golden for saying what people liked to hear ), at leas and they still have SOF roaming aroundt.  But suppose it's not a case of elite or dross.

Definitely not the case in Borodino they tried to bury the French with numbers as they were pretty much matched numerically, were defending against an invader and decided to fight them tooth and nail. 

They still outnumbered the French by around 30000 troops (155000 vs 125000). May not have been a decisive factor during Napoleonic Wars type warfare, but I wouldn't call them "matched"

[Malcador]

13 minutes ago, Gorth said:

They still outnumbered the French by around 30000 troops (155000 vs 125000). May not have been a decisive factor during Napoleonic Wars type warfare, but I wouldn't call them "matched"

I would say so, French troops were more experienced than the Russians.  In any event, wouldn't say they merely threw bodies at the French.  Funnily enough that battle was pitched for some political reasons as well.  Worked out well in the end I guess, though.

[Zoraptor]

The numbers at Borodino were near perfectly balanced, it's just that Boneyboos leave out the 20k French who Napoleon never committed- while including the Russians who didn't fight, of course. And, of course, people tend to leave out the times when the Russians won well, like Kunersdorf.

9 hours ago, Gromnir said:

so you are relying on the strawman bit... again? those as yet unseen posts quoting milley that Gromnir didn't actual criticize anyways? serious? what else is you gonna punch the stuffing outta and the attribute to Gromnir as the source o' your indignation.

Do I need to quote your own posts to you, again? That would be, to quote the great philosopher Edmund Blackadder, like a broken pencil. After all I don't really care what people got wrong 11 months ago because everyone got things wrong. The only way to not do so was to, well, not post at all. Then you can safely swoop in and laugh at the Chilloutmans of the world who made bad predictions. Though, of course, Mark Milley made exactly the same prediction, reportedly, so he's in jolly good company in the manner of being wrong.

And fricking lol at hiding behind a Harvard economist. Yeah, you didn't get it wrong, the person you quoted and defended (ad nauseum) did. If only I'd thought to, well, hide my opinion behind someone else's I could have escaped the ignominy of being wrong about the invasion. Sadly, I lack that particular kind of... sophistry. As I consider it, well, utterly pathetic and would be embarrassed by blaming someone else for something I got wrong.

And that's reinforced by Milley getting something wrong, anyway, not countered.

[Gorth]

What exactly is wrong with being wrong, if you're flexible enough to acknowledge you were wrong and change your view (as long as nobody suffers injury or loss as a consequence)?

 

Edit: I know I was wrong when this started because I didn't think it possible to make the kind of mistakes Putin did... and changed my mind as I saw how things unfolded

[Gromnir]

53 minutes ago, Gorth said:

What exactly is wrong with being wrong, if you're flexible enough to acknowledge you were wrong and change your view (as long as nobody suffers injury or loss as a consequence)?

*chuckle* 

is no shame in being wrong, though admitted being wrong is often unnecessary. as we keep pointing out, and zor keeps missing, the question o' the possibility o' russian success were not decided for some considerable time after the invasion and we even had boardies predicting russian victory in less than a week.  were a whole lotta unknowns and many folks got wrong. so what? our criticism were o' gaslighting and not the bad guesses.

however, much as the linked author michael kofman, am thinking it is foolish to make predictions or blanket judgements based on a paucity o' info. why not wait? is fine to state or share facts as known but is better to refrain from embracing judgments or opinions you may need relinquish when new info appears. 

recall the jussie smollet situation? more than a few pundits and celebs rushed to mr. smollet's defense. as more info became available, defending jussie looked less admirable, but more than a few folks had become emotional invested and refused to give ground even when facts showed the reality o' the situation were much different than described.

make ignornace based assessments o' uvalde standoff or police shootings in wisconsin or comparing early russian ukraine advances to desert storm gains is having a high possibility o' the need for reevaluation once better info is available. whatever. the thing is, once some clowns plant their flag on a hill they is unwilling to budge and they will fight to the death pretending their hill were actual representing a win.

that said, and am getting fatigued repeating, it is the gaslighting, deflection and whataboutism some resort to defend their mistakes which turns this thread into a mess. we observed how we were purposeful not indulging in individual finger pointing as it would lead to the kinda predictable stoopid which plagues this thread. and so it goes. watch as some twist self in knots describing how whataboutism isn't what definitions says it is or explaining away their mistaken assessments o' russia's pre invasion threat.  

10 hours ago, Gromnir said:

btw, anybody who thinks there is something courageous 'bout anonymous posting internet opinions is either unwell, way too invested in their internet life, or just plain stoopid.

is no prize or win for adding your opinions to the interweb. is nothing noble 'bout having the courage to be anonymous and wrong on an internet message board.

HA! Good Fun!

Edited January 13, 2023 by Gromnir

[Lexx]

Here's an interesting article about how the war affects a polish city at the border: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-01-13/putin-s-war-in-ukraine-turns-sleepy-polish-city-into-unlikely-global-airport-hub

[Malcador]

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-1-13-23/h_036eee5859c67517f9a4b066faaf144b

Soledar may be over for now, for real ?

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

7 hours ago, Gorth said:

What exactly is wrong with being wrong, if you're flexible enough to acknowledge you were wrong and change your view (as long as nobody suffers injury or loss as a consequence)?

The glorious satisfaction of being right supercedes everything else. Learning, changing? Nothing compared to the thrill of virtually beheading an online foe over them making an assessment that turns out to be incorrect. Discussions are for losers, winners treat all dialogue as combat.

[pmp10]

7 hours ago, Gorth said:

Edit: I know I was wrong when this started because I didn't think it possible to make the kind of mistakes Putin did... and changed my mind as I saw how things unfolded

We don't yet know if he really was that badly wrong.
Even Arestovych admitted thinking Ukraine was finished on day 3.

And people like him ran the defense.

Chances are the 'shock and awe' phase came a lot closer to regime change than people give it credit.

[Mamoulian War]

Interview with UA Minister of defense. He admits 50-60 daily UA casualties compared to 500-600 daily RU casualties.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64255249

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-1-13-23/h_036eee5859c67517f9a4b066faaf144b

Soledar may be over for now, for real ?

UA MoD as of 14:00 local time is denying the full capture.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/13/7384750/

[Malcador]

36 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Interview with UA Minister of defense. He admits 50-60 daily UA casualties compared to 500-600 daily RU casualties.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64255249

Bold claim.

CNN reported later that they're on the edges of the town, sort of funny the soldier quoted said there's no point staying too.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Malcador

[Mamoulian War]

I am just a messenger. The guys hopefully know, what they do, if they decided to do the last stand

[Zoraptor]

12 hours ago, Gorth said:

What exactly is wrong with being wrong, if you're flexible enough to acknowledge you were wrong and change your view (as long as nobody suffers injury or loss as a consequence)?

Nothing, of course. Only way to avoid it is to not say anything. And by far the best way to deal with being wrong is to just admit it.

11 hours ago, Gromnir said:

that said, and am getting fatigued repeating, it is the gaslighting, deflection and whataboutism some resort to defend their mistakes which turns this thread into a mess. we observed how we were purposeful not indulging in individual finger pointing as it would lead to the kinda predictable stoopid which plagues this thread. and so it goes. watch as some twist self in knots describing how whataboutism isn't what definitions says it is or explaining away their mistaken assessments o' russia's pre invasion threat. 

lol. Toodles then.

Yeah, I got it wrong --> twisting in knots. Whereas blaming someone else for your mistake is... straight line thinking? Plus of course complaining about whataboutism while bringing up totally relevant things like, uh, Uvalde, Wisconsin and Jussie fricking Smollet. Who even is Jussie Smollet?

Quote

is no prize or win for adding your opinions to the interweb. is nothing noble 'bout having the courage to be anonymous and wrong on an internet message board.

Yeah man, no one really cares if you're pathetic or not on the internet. Fortunate for you, eh.

[Malcador]

3 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

I am just a messenger. The guys hopefully know, what they do, if they decided to do the last stand

Hopefully not, can't really see that accomplishing much other than inspiring some Sabaton songs in the future, as opposed to just leaving for another line of defense elsewhere.  Disappointed not seeing as many 'pinch of salt' puns about Soledar though, hah..

[Mamoulian War]

A city with pre war occupation of 10k against whole Kharkiv and half of Kherson Oblast. Well, more salty should be the Russian lovers, that this is all that the world second army has achieved in 6 months

and yes UA can still lose, if Putin will be able to throw another 200k walking corpses to front