Ukraine Conflict

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, pmp10 said:

It is to me.
When big organizations like NATO avoid that elephant in the room it's because everyone is on-message that it doesn't exist.
For some reason that message has changed since last summit.

The thing is, that according to some leaked materials, it looks like Hungary has been vetoing some stuff about Ukraine since 2007. And only now the rest of NATO start to think, how to overcome that veto.

[ShadySands]

Ukraine war: The surrender hotline for Russian soldiers

Quote

"Ask yourself a question - what are you fighting for?" says the dramatic voice-over in Ukraine's "I Want To Live" propaganda video aimed at Russian soldiers.

Explosions appear in sync with evocative music, and there are images of Russian soldiers apparently surrendering before two phone numbers are shown at the end.

They're even told to wave a white flag if they're too close to the front line.

This is, of course, part of the information war. The anatomy of Ukraine's attempts to weaken Russian morale.

On the walls of Svitlana's office are pictures of Ukrainian prisoners of war. They're all thought to still be alive, and this hotline is central to Kyiv's efforts to bring them home.

Once they surrender, Russian prisoners of war (PoWs) can be used as currency in future exchanges.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Kremlin is also carrying out more prisoner of war exchanges as it tries to soothe critics from inside Russia.

PS finally heard from my wife's cousin again. He's still kicking though even angrier than usual thanks to all the blackouts and given the chance would beat Putin to death with his bare hands. Those are his words, not mine. I think it'd be better to beat Putin with bear hands... or paws, as it were.

Edited November 30, 2022 by ShadySands

[Malcador]

Always wonder how well those kinds of psyops actually work

[Gfted1]

Next, we airdrop extra large condoms, marked small or medium, to make them question their manhood.

6 Things you didn't know about the CIA | Sky HISTORY TV Channel

[Mamoulian War]

5 more objects of critical infrastructure caught fire today (30.11.) in Russia, three at the borders, and two deep in Russia. Ukraine did not comment on being accused that they’ve done it.

edit: also one shopping mall in Krasnoiarsk with extremely large capital Z on caught fire, too.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[xzar_monty]

Keir Giles, who I mentioned yesterday, has made some interesting new points about the situation in Ukraine. I think they are worth considering. Like:

- The West is currently playing precisely according to Russian rules. The way the West is helping Ukraine is predicated on the idea that Russia shouldn't suffer any military consequences for its actions on its own territory. Zelenskyi has explicitly been told that he cannot strike back into Russia.

- The West is doing this because Russia has actually won its information campaign, for the time being at least. The point of the campaign being the idea that opposing Russia would mean nuclear war and the end of the world. (According to Giles, there are no scenarios in Ukraine where the use of nuclear weapons would be a good idea for Russia.)

- There is currently no reason for the official Russia to try to make any change for the better (in our estimation of what is better). Putin has made a lot of effort to eliminate everyone who has an idea of a more Western Russia. And many of those he hasn't eliminated have now fled the country.

Again, whether he is right, I don't know.

And elsewhere, Lavrov has just blamed NATO's rampant expansion for everything. This tallies well with the idea that Russia seriously believes that NATO forces other countries to join, like the SU forced countries to join the Warsaw Pact. He's constantly in denial about the fact that NATO has no desire to attack; heck, if it had, the perfect opportunity would have been there since February: Russia's forces are in Ukraine, there has never been a better moment to invade Russia. But no one wants to do it, despite Russia's paranoia about it.

Edited December 1, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Mamoulian War]

Arestovych podcast from day 280.

he is speaking also about unofficial casualties. He agrees with US number of 100k, but he says, it is KIA+WIA soldiers. Ukraine suffers a lot of injuries, where the soldiers are unable come back to front for longer than 1 day. From all the WIA more than 70k went back front after recovery. 
 

 

[xzar_monty]

<woops, ignore, didn't immediately notice how old the article was>

Edited December 1, 2022 by xzar_monty

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Keir Giles, who I mentioned yesterday, has made some interesting new points about the situation in Ukraine. I think they are worth considering. Like:

- The West is currently playing precisely according to Russian rules. The way the West is helping Ukraine is predicated on the idea that Russia shouldn't suffer any military consequences for its actions on its own territory. Zelenskyi has explicitly been told that he cannot strike back into Russia.

- The West is doing this because Russia has actually won its information campaign, for the time being at least. The point of the campaign being the idea that opposing Russia would mean nuclear war and the end of the world. (According to Giles, there are no scenarios in Ukraine where the use of nuclear weapons would be a good idea for Russia.)

- There is currently no reason for the official Russia to try to make any change for the better (in our estimation of what is better). Putin has made a lot of effort to eliminate everyone who has an idea of a more Western Russia. And many of those he hasn't eliminated have now fled the country.

Again, whether he is right, I don't know.

And elsewhere, Lavrov has just blamed NATO's rampant expansion for everything. This tallies well with the idea that Russia seriously believes that NATO forces other countries to join, like the SU forced countries to join the Warsaw Pact. He's constantly in denial about the fact that NATO has no desire to attack; heck, if it had, the perfect opportunity would have been there since February: Russia's forces are in Ukraine, there has never been a better moment to invade Russia. But no one wants to do it, despite Russia's paranoia about it.

I dont agree with some of Giles points for several reasons 

• An invasion of Russia would change the nature of the mobilization and justify Putin saying something like  " now the Motherland is being invaded this war has become existential to our existence. We must throw everything at it ". It makes the moral high ground of being invaded blurry and support won't necessarily be the same and you will see a more united Russia around resources 
• The main  information war is not about nukes being used by Russia, that's just a risk no one wants to take. Russia lost the information campaign  long time ago because they cannot reasonably  justify their invasion of Ukraine and the Russian army  is constantly committing war crimes and its seen as the degenerate and barbaric military  it is. It doesnt matter if vatniks or countries like Syria and Belarus dont acknowledge this. The evidence is irrefutable. Thats an example of the real information campaign 
• Personally I dont care about Putin trying to change Russia for the better, he is irredeemable and needs to be  defeated one way or another

 

 

[Malcador]

I

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

The West is currently playing precisely according to Russian rules. The way the West is helping Ukraine is predicated on the idea that Russia shouldn't suffer any military consequences for its actions on its own territory. Zelenskyi has explicitly been told that he cannot strike back into Russia.

But they've attacked Belgorod. And Ukraine certainly had long range systems, like their Tochkas and however many Hrims they had.  The concern with the ATACMS I guess is the precedent it will set, kind of a far reaching system for a proxy war.

I get a kick out of people saying they are fighting with one hand behind their back, when that hand is someone else's.

[pmp10]

7 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

- The West is currently playing precisely according to Russian rules. The way the West is helping Ukraine is predicated on the idea that Russia shouldn't suffer any military consequences for its actions on its own territory. Zelenskyi has explicitly been told that he cannot strike back into Russia.

- The West is doing this because Russia has actually won its information campaign, for the time being at least. The point of the campaign being the idea that opposing Russia would mean nuclear war and the end of the world. (According to Giles, there are no scenarios in Ukraine where the use of nuclear weapons would be a good idea for Russia.)

Not only has Ukraine struck Belgorod numerous time, on some occasions western weapons were almost certainly involved. 
Ukrainian capacity to strike deep into Russia is minimal and west is perfectly aware of the fact.

Nor has Russia won any information campaign, recently they event backed down from mentioning anything nuclear.
Minimal escalation strategy pursued by the west is entirely of its own design.
Even if they believed nukes would drop over delivery of old IFVs they didn't need to stall or sabotage financial support to Ukraine.

But I guess admitting that you'd rather see Ukraine collapse than risk Russian instability is too embarrassing to say out loud.

[Malcador]

 

[BruceVC]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-agrees-60-barrel-price-cap-russian-seaborne-oil-eu-diplomat-2022-12-01/

EU is closer to a Ruskie  oil price cap 

[BruceVC]

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/11/30/make-peace-not-war

The appetite for this war is really waning amongst most Russian citizens 

[Mamoulian War]

On 12/1/2022 at 10:58 AM, xzar_monty said:

Keir Giles, who I mentioned yesterday, has made some interesting new points about the situation in Ukraine. I think they are worth considering. Like:

- The West is currently playing precisely according to Russian rules. The way the West is helping Ukraine is predicated on the idea that Russia shouldn't suffer any military consequences for its actions on its own territory. Zelenskyi has explicitly been told that he cannot strike back into Russia.

- The West is doing this because Russia has actually won its information campaign, for the time being at least. The point of the campaign being the idea that opposing Russia would mean nuclear war and the end of the world. (According to Giles, there are no scenarios in Ukraine where the use of nuclear weapons would be a good idea for Russia.)

- There is currently no reason for the official Russia to try to make any change for the better (in our estimation of what is better). Putin has made a lot of effort to eliminate everyone who has an idea of a more Western Russia. And many of those he hasn't eliminated have now fled the country.

Again, whether he is right, I don't know.

And elsewhere, Lavrov has just blamed NATO's rampant expansion for everything. This tallies well with the idea that Russia seriously believes that NATO forces other countries to join, like the SU forced countries to join the Warsaw Pact. He's constantly in denial about the fact that NATO has no desire to attack; heck, if it had, the perfect opportunity would have been there since February: Russia's forces are in Ukraine, there has never been a better moment to invade Russia. But no one wants to do it, despite Russia's paranoia about it.

 

On 12/1/2022 at 2:26 PM, Malcador said:

I

But they've attacked Belgorod. And Ukraine certainly had long range systems, like their Tochkas and however many Hrims they had.  The concern with the ATACMS I guess is the precedent it will set, kind of a far reaching system for a proxy war.

I get a kick out of people saying they are fighting with one hand behind their back, when that hand is someone else's.

 

On 12/1/2022 at 7:09 PM, pmp10 said:

Not only has Ukraine struck Belgorod numerous time, on some occasions western weapons were almost certainly involved. 
Ukrainian capacity to strike deep into Russia is minimal and west is perfectly aware of the fact.

Nor has Russia won any information campaign, recently they event backed down from mentioning anything nuclear.
Minimal escalation strategy pursued by the west is entirely of its own design.
Even if they believed nukes would drop over delivery of old IFVs they didn't need to stall or sabotage financial support to Ukraine.

But I guess admitting that you'd rather see Ukraine collapse than risk Russian instability is too embarrassing to say out loud.

About UA hitting the Russia and ATACMS. Here is a little bit different theory, why they are not supplied.

TL; DW, 1 ATACMS costs as 10 smaller MLRS missiles, and is much larger. There is a possibility, that Russia is able to intercept such huge rockets with their S300/400, which on another hand are unable to hit small diameter MLRS missiles. So “not escalating” rhetorics is just an excuse and a scapegoat to look reasonable in public and Russian eyes. In other words, they are getting literally much more bang for the same money with the sorter distance missiles provided, than they could ever achieve with ATACMS. We’ll see how the new Boeing/Saab gliders will fare soon. Also, Few months ago, there was some lady close to the White House speaking, that ATACMS could not be delivered before all technical ”shortcommings” are solved. Interview with her was even linked few dozens of pages ago in one of the previous threads. Can’t find it now, but maybe someone else remembers the article

 

 

[BruceVC]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11494595/Vladimir-Putin-fell-stairs-home-soiled-himself.htm

Putin has apparently  fallen down stairs and soiled himself. Is this another sign of his ill-health or malicious tabloid gossip?

[Mamoulian War]

A side effect of the war, no one speaks about. Minimum of 50k Dolphins has died in the Black Sea during the war so far.

 

[kanisatha]

12 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11494595/Vladimir-Putin-fell-stairs-home-soiled-himself.htm

Putin has apparently  fallen down stairs and soiled himself. Is this another sign of his ill-health or malicious tabloid gossip?

I saw this story too, from a different source. But didn't post it here because I figured some people would have that reaction of "it's just tabloid gossip." I personally can see this being very much true, esp. because the part that he is suffering from intestinal cancer seems solid with other previous stories.

[Malcador]

12 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11494595/Vladimir-Putin-fell-stairs-home-soiled-himself.htm

Putin has apparently  fallen down stairs and soiled himself. Is this another sign of his ill-health or malicious tabloid gossip?

Reality is what you want to believe.

[pmp10]

A little diplomatic signaling has take place recently:
Biden floated the idea of talking to Putin.
Scholz suggested returning to business as usual.
Macron talked about new security guarantees. (for Russia of course)

Slow softening of western position continues. 

[xzar_monty]

I made an exception and clicked that Daily Mail link. I shouldn't have.

In the second paragraph, the tabloid writes, "The 70-year-old Russian leader, whose health has visibly deteriorated since he launched his war in Ukraine..."

Has it? That's not clear at all, I think. Anyway, writing stuff like that is extremely bad form, in my view, and thus strengthens my opinion that you should never read the Daily Mail.

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I made an exception and clicked that Daily Mail link. I shouldn't have.

In the second paragraph, the tabloid writes, "The 70-year-old Russian leader, whose health has visibly deteriorated since he launched his war in Ukraine..."

Has it? That's not clear at all, I think. Anyway, writing stuff like that is extremely bad form, in my view, and thus strengthens my opinion that you should never read the Daily Mail.

Geez Monty that doesnt sound very nice? What if the Daily Mail closed down because no one  cares about it and no companies use them for  advertising

What about all the journalists who would lose their jobs, some of them might have families who depend on them?

 

[xzar_monty]

21 hours ago, kanisatha said:

I saw this story too, from a different source. But didn't post it here because I figured some people would have that reaction of "it's just tabloid gossip." I personally can see this being very much true, esp. because the part that he is suffering from intestinal cancer seems solid with other previous stories.

I don't know whether the story is true or not, but I'm pretty sure you remember what Stalin was discovered lying in after his stroke, soon before he died. An eerie parallel of sorts, when it comes to some of the most awful Russian leaders.

Speaking of Stalin and awful, I find it astonishing that the last time Russians were asked about this (in that one repeating poll), the "greatest ever human being" in their opinion was old Joseph Stalin. Hardly any foreigners got into that list, but one who did was Adolf Hitler. Twenty years earlier, Albert Einstein used to be on that list, but more recently Russians have been of the opinion that his contributions to mankind are nothing compared to Hitler's. So it's all fine and dandy in Russia.

[BruceVC]

https://expressfreedirectory.com/opinion-enough-about-democracys-weaknesses-lets-talk-about-its-strengths/ 

This is a very interesting  link about the strengths and advantages that Democracy has over autocracies like China and Russia

It was written by Fareed Zakaria but the original link is behind a paywall so I found this link which is the same   

[kanisatha]

5 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

In the second paragraph, the tabloid writes, "The 70-year-old Russian leader, whose health has visibly deteriorated since he launched his war in Ukraine..."

But this has been widely reported in many other sources, sources that people generally view as "reliable."

In any case, if this is the standard for judging the strength or validity of a news story, then by that very standard I'd reckon over 90% of news stories (from the so-called reliable sources) to be tainted, because making unsubstantiated claims and judgments is par for the course in news stories these days.

Edited December 4, 2022 by kanisatha