Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"

[BruceVC]

https://www.deseret.com/2022/11/10/23450429/inflation-drops-lowest-rate-since-january-economy-recession-federal-reserve 

 

Really good news for our US friends, inflation is down to 7.7%. Hopefully this means good news for other countries but each country has it own inflation battles and monetary policies

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

I was thinking of Vals and Comrade's  views that the Russian retreat in Kharkiv was a strategy and how Russia  was " winning " the war in Ukraine, unparalleled copium 

Are you familiar with the story of the lizards?

There is a particularly silly conspiracy theory according to which the Earth is ruled by evil lizards. One such conspiracy theorist decided to expose this horrible cabal. After a thorough research on the topic, he concluded that the lizards were going to convene at a certain hotel somewhere. So, he went there on the appointed hour, prepared to show the world. Of course, there were no lizards there, not even a hint of them.

His conclusion? "They knew I was coming. So they went elsewhere."

I'm not commenting on the characters you mention, but the fact is that when you have a preset view, you can always fit the reality to it, instead of modifying your view according to what reality is. I think we are, in general, quite unclear about the manifold reasons as to why this happens (my understanding is that it's more a question of education than intelligence as such, but neither of those alone explains very much). It is very, very unfortunate and causes an awful lot of suffering.

[BruceVC]

13 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Are you familiar with the story of the lizards?

There is a particularly silly conspiracy theory according to which the Earth is ruled by evil lizards. One such conspiracy theorist decided to expose this horrible cabal. After a thorough research on the topic, he concluded that the lizards were going to convene at a certain hotel somewhere. So, he went there on the appointed hour, prepared to show the world. Of course, there were no lizards there, not even a hint of them.

His conclusion? "They knew I was coming. So they went elsewhere."

I'm not commenting on the characters you mention, but the fact is that when you have a preset view, you can always fit the reality to it, instead of modifying your view according to what reality is. I think we are, in general, quite unclear about the manifold reasons as to why this happens (my understanding is that it's more a question of education than intelligence as such, but neither of those alone explains very much). It is very, very unfortunate and causes an awful lot of suffering.

This is a good post and I like the lizard analogy 

But IMO and from engaging with Vatniks and people who support\supported Putins War is there are different reasons that they do this. And they really do vary from person to person 

For example I asked Vals and he basically said he considers the US to be as  equally corrupt and autocratic as Russia so " why criticize Putin's leadership when the US is the same " 

He is entitled to his opinion but its a preposterous and utterly unconvincingly comparison, no country in the world that is a  Constitutional Democracy can ever the same as an  autocracy or one party state. You can find certain similarities but they not the same 

[xzar_monty]

16 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

For example I asked Vals and he basically said he considers the US to be as  equally corrupt and autocratic as Russia so " why criticize Putin's leadership when the US is the same " 

He is entitled to his opinion but its a preposterous and utterly unconvincingly comparison, no country in the world that is a  Constitutional Democracy can ever the same as an  autocracy or one party state. You can find certain similarities but they not the same 

I think this attitude stems from a profound disappointment coupled with ignorance.

Disappointment in one's own country: it is true that many things are handled awfully poorly in the US. There is no universal health care. Education can be terrible. The federal government is not run particularly well. Inequalty is rife. Etc. All of this can cause disillusionment and cynicism, which is understandable but not very helpful.

When you're already disillusioned and cynical, and you don't know enough about Russia, or Saudi Arabia or some country like that, you can start thinking that "they're all the same". But they're not. Just study the very recent history of those countries. I wouldn't want to live in the US. But given a choice between Russia and the US, I mean, it's not even a question that you need to think about.

[Mamoulian War]

7 hours ago, Malcador said:

With their numbers is amazing there are any Russians left.

 

Zelenskiy announced in the interview to CNN that the losses are approximately 1:10

According to US General Milley, the WIA/KIA on RU side is 100k.

and you do not need to be amazed by that number. Soviet Union/Russia has always had sayin. “Nas mnogo.” (There is many of us). Just look at waht is going on around Bakhmut in last 6 months

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/10/7375844/

 

Edit: Antonovsky Bridge was blown up by Russia. Looks like 20k Russians which are according to estimates still in Kherson Oblast, will be having very bad weekend trying to fulfill the evacuation orders. But I am sure that Putin has no issue to make this sacrifice.

Edited November 11, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

4 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Meanwhile, back in reality...

“You are looking at well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded,” Milley said in remarks at the Economic Club of New York. “Same thing probably on the Ukrainian side.” [source]

Of course the number are the same for Ukrainians. Only in Mariupol, it is estimated, that Russia killed 20k civilians To bad the Russian army does not funnel all the effort aimed at civilians to military targets. They would be probably already back occupying Eastern Berlin

[xzar_monty]

26 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Edit: Antonovsky Bridge was blown up by Russia. Looks like 20k Russians which are according to estimates still in Kherson Oblast, will be having very bad weekend trying to fulfill the evacuation orders. But I am sure that Putin has no issue to make this sacrifice.

Scorched-earth policy and wholesale killing of their own (in the sense of just letting them die when that is clearly what is going to happen) are staples of Russian warfare.

I wonder if the Russian "Nas mnogo" is an intentional Biblical reference, to Mark 5:9. If so, it's very odd. I don't speak Russian and my Greek is poor, so I can't really comment on this with any expertise.

[bugarup]

Nah, that's just basic "There is a lot of us". Russians do have a morbidly hilarious saying regarding war losses, something like "No big deal, broads (pejorative бабы) will birth out some more". 

[Zoraptor]

59 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Of course the number are the same for Ukrainians. Only in Mariupol, it is estimated, that Russia killed 20k civilians To bad the Russian army does not funnel all the effort aimed at civilians to military targets. They would be probably already back occupying Eastern Berlin

1) Milley gave a separate figure for civilian casualties, and that was clearly not included in the 100k figure. You'd know that, if you'd read the article.

2) There isn't any wiggle room for interpretation, it's 100k soldiers on each side. The handy quote I provided- in case anyone, well, didn't read the article- makes that clear.

3) Now, to be fair, a lot of media managed to somehow leave out the "same thing probably on the Ukrainian side" part of the quote, like our TV news here, leaving Milley just saying that Russia has had 100k casualties. I provided a source with the full quote though, not the truncated one.

The Ukrainian claims of 8 or 10:1 casualties are fantasy, as anyone with even a soupçon of critical thinking could very easily have guessed.

[bugarup]

The same article also says that actual numbers might be quite different as both sides thorougly guard such statistics, so in other words, nobody knows really.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

1) Milley gave a separate figure for civilian casualties, and that was clearly not included in the 100k figure. You'd know that, if you'd read the article.

2) There isn't any wiggle room for interpretation, it's 100k soldiers on each side. The handy quote I provided- in case anyone, well, didn't read the article- makes that clear.

3) Now, to be fair, a lot of media managed to somehow leave out the "same thing probably on the Ukrainian side" part of the quote, like our TV news here, leaving Milley just saying that Russia has had 100k casualties. I provided a source with the full quote though, not the truncated one.

The Ukrainian claims of 8 or 10:1 casualties are fantasy, as anyone with even a soupçon of critical thinking could very easily have guessed.

If you really believe, that leaving mobiks and prisoners behind, and force them to fight against their will, does not lead to much higher casualties on Russian side, especially when banging their head day by day against Bakhmut, Soledar, Bilohorivka, Avdiivka, and lately against Pavlivka as well. You might have probably given up on critical thinking as well

Everywhere it is stated, that in modern warfare, when attacking enemy stronghold, attackers have losses in such situation 5:1, and Russians are doing it for months all day long, and bringing fresh meat through mobilization… Not to mention HIMARS landing on their asses around the clock…

Alone around the Bakmut city, the casualties on the Wagner and co. since the beginning of the siege, are estimated between 10-20k. It is even stated, that due to the ridiculous number of dead Russian soldiers and Mercenaries left behind in the area, the underground water reservoirs are started to see high contamination by pathogens in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts… I am sorry to inform you, but your claims of loses 1:1 are as much in the fantasy land as you deem the 10:1 claims, are 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Malcador]

Does seem like Russians pulled back, Ukrainian troops reached the center.

4 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Scorched-earth policy and wholesale killing of their own (in the sense of just letting them die when that is clearly what is going to happen) are staples of Russian warfare.

Really?

[Mamoulian War]

Yes. They blew up all critical infrastructure in the city. Kherson is now without power and water. And on Russian telegrams, there are VDV guys complaining, that their last order, they received was to wear civilian clothes, and chose wherever they will go. All that, after the Antonovski Bridge was blown up.
 

on the other hand:

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Malcador]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-diplomacy.html

Milley's not going to get an invite to Kiev anytime soon.

Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has made the case in internal meetings that the Ukrainians have achieved about as much as they could reasonably expect on the battlefield before winter sets in and so they should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table, according to officials informed about the discussions.

 

[kanisatha]

8 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

... when you have a preset view, you can always fit the reality to it, instead of modifying your view according to what reality is. I think we are, in general, quite unclear about the manifold reasons as to why this happens (my understanding is that it's more a question of education than intelligence as such, but neither of those alone explains very much). It is very, very unfortunate and causes an awful lot of suffering.

Yup. Mainly the result of cognitive dissonance. I see it so very often in my students. Very frustrating.

Most people cannot overcome cognitive dissonance. Those few who can are the ones capable of critical higher-order thinking.

[kanisatha]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-diplomacy.html

Milley's not going to get an invite to Kiev anytime soon.

 

 

 

And justifiably so.

I love it when people (typically Westerners living peaceful lives within their own very secure borders) casually talk of other people giving up their land, something they themselves would NEVER ever under any circumstances say about their own land.

[Malcador]

Well, Milley's not just any Westerner. Part of the apparatus that is sustaining Ukraine right now, obviously they won't have some Melnyk-esque ass come out and insult him or the US - they'll just go at the Times I guess.  Is interesting to be communicated though, if true, wonder what he thinks will change through the winter

[Zoraptor]

6 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

I am sorry to inform you, but your claims of loses 1:1 are as much in the fantasy land as you deem the 10:1 claims, are 

Not my claim, Mark Milley's. You know, the top general of the US. Who, yes since bugarup's criticism is fine, might be wrong; but is an expert and certainly doesn't have a reason to exaggerate Ukrainian losses or minimise Russian ones. UkMOD and Zelensky otoh have a very good reason for claiming ludicrous figures as true, not least that people actually convince themselves they're accurate whatever they are.

Ukraine has been bumping their heads against Kherson for 7 months and you've been claiming 8:1 losses in their favour there. You're not even consistent in your (bad) application of military theory.

[Mamoulian War]

On 11/7/2022 at 8:51 PM, Zoraptor said:

0) No I'm not, because it isn't.

1) The dam/ bridge blocks/ crosses the Dniepr River, which is maybe 300m wide at that point, not 15m. The lock is 15m wide. Handy wikimapia link as illustration. Make sure to turn on the satellite imagery too as...

2) ..the tweet is from Nov 3, but..

3) ..the satellite imagery most definitely is not from Nov 3, it's bog standard Google imagery which could be anything up to literal years old. This is what it looks like on a more up to date image. Note the two extra bridges, and the infill.

Here you have a Maxar picture of the dam from this morning, and you can easily compare the “damage” done by Ukrainians during last 6 months, and damage to it done by Russia in a single day *hint hint* RU damage to the right and UA damage to the left 

6 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Not my claim, Mark Milley's. You know, the top general of the US. Who, yes since bugarup's criticism is fine, might be wrong; but is an expert and certainly doesn't have a reason to exaggerate Ukrainian losses or minimise Russian ones. UkMOD and Zelensky otoh have a very good reason for claiming ludicrous figures as true, not least that people actually convince themselves they're accurate whatever they are.

Ukraine has been bumping their heads against Kherson for 7 months and you've been claiming 8:1 losses in their favour there. You're not even consistent in your (bad) application of military theory.

I have written about the ratio 8:1 as a ratio based on UA sources (mainly their MoD), not my numbers lol…

aand You are considering 7 months of systematic destruction of Russian logistic and command centers, which lead to massive casualties amongst RU soldiers and destruction of RU machinery, while saving as much UA soldier lives, which in the end caused the retreat of 20k of Russian soldiers on the other bank in record time and liberation of more than 6000 sq kms, as head bumping against the wall… and you are still trying to accuse someone else of bad application of military theory

Edited November 12, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

Dugin is putting the blame for losing Kherson directly on Putin. Hopefully, he does not enjoy drinking tea in the morning

 

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

Here you have a Maxar picture of the dam from this morning, and you can easily compare the “damage” done by Ukrainians during last 6 months, and damage to it done by Russia in a single day *hint hint* RU damage to the right and UA damage to the left 

 

Sigh. You can't tell what damage was done previously since there's no comparison available. Which is what I was complaining about. As previous, your 'November 3' picture is at best from months before that claimed date. All the other publicly available and recent pics don't show the northern side at all. Yeah, Maxar says, but as below, saying is one thing, it being true is another.

Particular lol at those saying there are no northern sluice gates so the dam itself is actually damaged, eg Ukrainian Pravda living up (down) to their soviet pedigree.

1) Fundamentally, you don't need the breakwater/ embankment if there aren't sluices, since no current --> no undercutting of the bank. So, logically there are sluices.

2) Practically, there are literally literally pictures of the dam spilling water on its northern side, eg. And yes, that's 100% the northern side, unless the Dniepr has started running uphill... For extra lols, one from, uh, RFE/ RL too, which is even more unequivocal. There are sluices on the northern side, qed.

(For anyone wondering how much time I'm wasting on 'research' that was cunningly hidden away behind the arcane facade of "Nova karkhovka dam" DDG image search. Literally took 15 seconds to find a picture of the dam spilling water on its northern side... Now to see how many outlets run with the UP story without actually checking. I'm going to put $10 on the local TV news doing so at least)

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

I have written about the ratio 8:1 as a ratio based on UA sources (mainly their MoD), not my numbers lol…

Please. No one is going to say that I uncritically spout whatever the US military says as gospel, because I patently don't. In no way shape or form are they 'my' numbers because they don't come from a source I'm inherently biased towards. That's not exactly true with you and UkMOD/ Zelensky though.

This leads to some pretty... inconsistent opinions I'm afraid. You're saying that Russian losses have to be 5:1 if they're on attack, yet are also 8:1 (or 10:1) if they're on defence. This leads to two possibilities

1) they're attacking 'pointlessly' because it costs them less soldiers than defending, which makes it not pointless. Good guy Putin, sparing his soldiers by making them attack instead of defend <-- this one makes no sense, and is wrong

2) Or your figures are just ridiculous and aren't even internally consistent with each other. <-- It's this one.

 

[Mamoulian War]

You can tell what damage was done previously *sighs*… there are tons of videos and pictures of the dam… feel free to stay delusional further though

and another delusion, is the two points at the end of your article… again I recommend you to check how it goes around Bakhmut, Pisky, Avdiivka, how Russian commanders are preserving their troops  

the simple reason, why Kherson defensive 8:1 number provided by UA MoD, might be little bit plausible, is that RU ended up in shambles and chaos after few months of daily care by Mr. HIMARS (20k+ soldiers under incompetent command is pretty target rich environment), which Russia was not able to counter at all, and they were still doing counterattacks around Snihurivka and Ternovy Pody all the time, until retreat… Also look at some numbers from the liberation of Balaklia, where due to chaos amongst the Russian soldiers and useless commanders, the presented numbers were 5:1 in favour for Ukraine as well. With much much much less HIMARS treatment…

The numbers for the whole Kharkiv offensive were not released yet though (AFAIK).

EDIT: just do the math. Someone made a statistics, how many HIMARS attacks have been done during that period… I do not remember exact number, but it was more than 300. Let’s split it evenly. 150 strikes against logistic infrastructure and 150 strikes against personnel HQs, with the reports from 20-300 killed personnel. But lets just use number 30, to be very conservative. That means minimum 4500 dead Russians by HIMARS alone, and 0 Ukrainian dead, due to lack of countermeasures, to destroy or even damage soldiers in use of this machinery… then look at artillery. Russia just shoots randomly and hope to hit something, there are videos on Telegram of Russian soldiers blaming their artillery support to shoot the projectiles up to few hundreds meters away from the targets, on the other hand, UA has Excaliburs, and they are using it with great success (again, you can see a lot of footage, with one hit kills of russian machinery), this speaks also in favour of better K:D ratio for Ukrainians. The only time, where the ratio is not in their favour, is their direct counter-offensive, which they dropped to absolute minimum in this region, in favour of the HIMARS pounding… all you need for this conclusion is some common sense, and some elementary school math

 

and here you have some another backing of the common sense, for visually confirmed losses of machinery. During the counteroffensive, the ratio was 3.5:1 in favour for Ukraine *surprised pikachu face (or not)*. As you can see, the UA losses piled up a lot, just after the start of their counteroffensive in the middle of October, when they started to push more in Kherson Oblast, but they are still waaaay under the Russian losses… but yeah sure, do not let the numbers or common sense to disturb your ideology

 

Edited November 12, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

Alleged manual of Russian soldier for the “Great Patriotic War 2.0” in Ukraine. It is as ridiculous, as you would think. “We are fighting Russians brainwashed by Nazis supported by Israel”

 

[BruceVC]

25 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Alleged manual of Russian soldier for the “Great Patriotic War 2.0” in Ukraine. It is as ridiculous, as you would think. “We are fighting Russians brainwashed by Nazis supported by Israel”

 

OMG, that has got to be the most hilarious, inaccurate, historically  revisionist and utterly propaganda fueled garbage I have ever heard from Russia in this war.... " they have the cable Internet " 

 

Edited November 12, 2022 by BruceVC

[Mamoulian War]

Some Russians in charge of bigger Telegram channels are finally getting out of delusion, and are starting to ask the right questions