Ukraine Conflict - "Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed"

[xzar_monty]

It seems to me that Bruce is fundamentally wrong because he persists in the idea that the current Russia has any interest in adhering to anything that it has put pen to paper about.

Edited October 4, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Darkpriest]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

It seems to me that Bruce is fundamentally wrong because he persists in the idea that the current Russia has any interest in adhering to anything that it has put pen to paper about.

It sort of goes the same for every deemed 'superpower'. US is no different in ignoring whats on paper when it is incovenient... 

For example, continous looting and pilliging of Syrian Oil fields by US Army Corps of Engineers. 

[xzar_monty]

1 minute ago, Darkpriest said:

It sort of goes the same for every deemed 'superpower'. US is no different in ignoring whats on paper when it is incovenient...

No, it doesn't. There are significant degrees of difference. If you insist on ignoring them, that's fine, but they're still there. This is not to say that the US is somehow free of blemishes, even significant ones.

[BruceVC]

47 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

It sort of goes the same for every deemed 'superpower'. US is no different in ignoring whats on paper when it is incovenient... 

For example, continous looting and pilliging of Syrian Oil fields by US Army Corps of Engineers. 

Why would the US need to loot and pillage oil fields in Syria when they worlds biggest producer of oil?

Is this still happening in Syria and do you have any links that support this?

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Unfortunatelly it will never work. Unless there would be a complete change at he high leadership. Putin has shown, that he is interested only in his “Russian World” doctrine, and he is willing to sacrifices everyone to achieve this non-sense… Even if UN would supervise last month referendums, he would bribe the **** out of them, to achieve his goals. All he would need to do, is to make sure, that there would be more observers from countries more favourable to Russia, than the West… Russia needs to be kicked out of Ukraine by force. And I say that fully knowing, that the city where I live is probably among the candidates for possible Nuclear Strike as we have NATO Airport with Patriot defense system less than 7 km away from the city centre…

Yes I realize it seems unrealistic now, I thinking this is achievable once Putin is gone one way or another?

And I do agree with the benefits of  continued Ukrainian military success, I am just thinking of finding a way to end the war and it will take compromise from both sides to achieve lasting peace

Thats why Zelensky said " we believe in finding a peaceful solution but not with Putin" 

[Mamoulian War]

23 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Yes I realize it seems unrealistic now, I thinking this is achievable once Putin is gone one way or another?

And I do agree with the benefits of  continued Ukrainian military success, I am just thinking of finding a way to end the war and it will take compromise from both sides to achieve lasting peace

Thats why Zelensky said " we believe in finding a peaceful solution but not with Putin" 

It’s official now, Zelenskyi today signed a degree to make negotiations with Putin impossible.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/4/7370293/

[Lexx]

Makes sense. You can't talk with Putin, and you can't trust his word.

[Darkpriest]

41 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Why would the US need to loot and pillage oil fields in Syria when they worlds biggest producer of oil?

Is this still happening in Syria and do you have any links that support this?

You will likely not see this in Western media as it is quite uncomfortable. 

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/us-sends-more-stolen-oil-from-syria-to-iraqi-bases/93698373

However, you will hear on attacks on US forces stationed in OIL rich areas of Syria. 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/19/us-military-base-in-syria-targeted-in-failed-rocket-attack

 

[Lexx]

Russia is fighting NATO now:

 

[Darkpriest]

5 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Russia is fighting NATO now:

 

Well considering all the donated equipment, training, intel, etc. he is not far from truth. (aside of long range tactical and strategic weaponary) The difference is, its Ukrainian bodies pilling up in that conflict against similar piles of Russian bodies. 

Russians can probably loose 300k men. Can UA to? 

It's unfortunate and i do agree with Musk on his assessment. I think I even mentioned similar, early in the war, that this is the minimum Russia will want onve they commited to war. Land corridor to Crimea and safety of water and energy supplies. 

[Mamoulian War]

21 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

You will likely not see this in Western media as it is quite uncomfortable. 

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/us-sends-more-stolen-oil-from-syria-to-iraqi-bases/93698373

However, you will hear on attacks on US forces stationed in OIL rich areas of Syria. 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/19/us-military-base-in-syria-targeted-in-failed-rocket-attack

 

But Aljazeera was never considered as a pro-western media. 

[Mamoulian War]

12 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Well considering all the donated equipment, training, intel, etc. he is not far from truth. (aside of long range tactical and strategic weaponary) The difference is, its Ukrainian bodies pilling up in that conflict against similar piles of Russian bodies. 

Russians can probably loose 300k men. Can UA to? 

It's unfortunate and i do agree with Musk on his assessment. I think I even mentioned similar, early in the war, that this is the minimum Russia will want onve they commited to war. Land corridor to Crimea and safety of water and energy supplies. 

Yes it is very unfortunate, but the Russian piles of soldier bodies are still 3 to 5 time bigger than UKrainians. And most of the people already know, that if Ukraine would stop right now, the piles of bodies amnogst the civilians would go skyrocket high on all of the annexed territories, as they were piled up in Bucha, Mariupol, Izyum and many many more places… and before, Same happened at South Ossetia, Chechnia, Abkhazia and occupied Donbass… I am not surprised, that Ukraine is not willing to accept similar cleansing of their own people.

 

Oh and I would not be so sure, that Russia could sustain 300k bodybags. First thing that they need to do, is find 300k people stupid enough to get themselves killed in Ukraine. And that is pretty much as futile attempt as their attempt to conquer Bakhmut. Just Kazakhstan alone has confirmed, that 200k men fled from Russia to their country since the start of the mobilisation, and the queues at their borders are not getting any shorter
 

https://www.zakon.kz/6026479-bolshe-200-tysiach-rossiian-vekhali-v-kazakhstan-s-obiavleniia-mobilizatsii.html
 

Jut Run it through Google translate.

[Darkpriest]

12 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

But Aljazeera was never considered as a pro-western media. 

Here, Reuters on US base in Syria

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-military-base-syria-targeted-failed-rocket-attack-2022-09-19/

[Darkpriest]

2 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Yes it is very unfortunate, but the Russian piles of soldier bodies are still 3 to 5 time bigger than UKrainians. And most of the people already know, that if Ukraine would stop right now, the piles of bodies amnogst the civilians would go skyrocket high on all of the annexed territories, as they were piled up in Bucha, Mariupol, Izyum and many many more places… and before, Same happened at South Ossetia, Chechnia, Abkhazia and occupied Donbass… I am not surprised, that Ukraine is not willing to accept similar cleansing of their own people.

 

Oh and I would not be so sure, that Russia could sustain 300k bodybags. First thing that they need to do, is find 300k people stupid enough to get themselves killed in Ukraine. And that is pretty much as futile attempt as their attempt to conquer Bakhmut. Just Kazakhstan alone has confirmed, that 200k men fled from Russia to their country since the start of the mobilisation, and the queues at their borders are not getting any shorter
 

https://www.zakon.kz/6026479-bolshe-200-tysiach-rossiian-vekhali-v-kazakhstan-s-obiavleniia-mobilizatsii.html
 

Jut Run it through Google translate.

Not sure where you get that ratio from, but until the conflict is over, i doubt any ratio can be verified. 

I'd be surprised on a such, considering that Russia still has artilery superiority and air force and long range missiles are still on the Russia advantage side. 

Perhaps in some close combat or ambusj scenarios that holds true, but i doubt that overall one would be so skewed to one side. War would be over there by now with such a ratio. 

[Mamoulian War]

1 minute ago, Darkpriest said:

Here, Reuters on US base in Syria

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-military-base-syria-targeted-failed-rocket-attack-2022-09-19/

Since the change of their writing after signing the contract which was done between Reuters and TASS, I would not consider them pro-western either
 

Here you can read some research on the background of that contract 

 

[Mamoulian War]

3 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Not sure where you get that ratio from, but until the conflict is over, i doubt any ratio can be verified. 

I'd be surprised on a such, considering that Russia still has artilery superiority and air force and long range missiles are still on the Russia advantage side. 

Perhaps in some close combat or ambusj scenarios that holds true, but i doubt that overall one would be so skewed to one side. War would be over there by now with such a ratio. 

Nope, it cannot be 100% verified, but there are estimates by US or the British secret service, which have been shown pretty trustworthy compared to UA and RU estimates. 
 

The worst for Ukraine it was during the siege of Severodonetsk, where they get massively pummeled, but since then, they got their HIMARSes and the methodical destruction of ammo warehouses and command center did reduce the Russian ability to use artillery significantly. Since then, their casualty rate stabilized a lot.

Also the Russian air superiority is also no longer a thing, especially in Kherson, where Ukraine is currently doing more sorties than the Russia. And IIRC every week since the start of Kharkiv counteroffensive, Ukraine managed to shot down more Russian fighters and helicopter than during the whole time since the fall of Lysychansk

[BruceVC]

45 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Well considering all the donated equipment, training, intel, etc. he is not far from truth. (aside of long range tactical and strategic weaponary) The difference is, its Ukrainian bodies pilling up in that conflict against similar piles of Russian bodies. 

Russians can probably loose 300k men. Can UA to? 

It's unfortunate and i do agree with Musk on his assessment. I think I even mentioned similar, early in the war, that this is the minimum Russia will want onve they commited to war. Land corridor to Crimea and safety of water and energy supplies. 

Nah, Russia isn't at war with NATO because NATO hasnt deployed NATO forces to Ukraine

Until then its just some NATO countries supplying military armements to Ukraine 

 

[Lexx]

 

[Oner]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/30/alexei-navalny-parliamentary-republic-russia-ukraine/

[BruceVC]

8 minutes ago, Oner said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/30/alexei-navalny-parliamentary-republic-russia-ukraine/

Really interesting read and Navalny makes some convincing points about the future of Russia and its system of government. Here is the same link outside the WP

https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/10/01/alexei-navalny-this-is-what-a-post-putin-russia-should-look-like/

[xzar_monty]

2 hours ago, Lexx said:

Russia is fighting NATO now:

According to Putin, Russia is at war against the collective West. That is what he said last Friday. Keep in mind, though, that Russia is not and has never been at war with Ukraine.

I am currently engaged in a work project that has led me to some Pravda articles from the 1930s, before and during Stalin's Great Terror. I am both fascinated and stunned by how identical the tone is to what Putin is spewing today. The proclamations are characterized by an extremely odd combination of utter triumphalism and clinical paranoia(*). It's not often you see that. It seems likely that stuff like that may sound convincing to those already enhtralled by the same kind of thinking, but to anyone looking in from the outside it looks utterly childish and crazy.

 

(*) Teeth-rattlingly stupid descriptions of Soviet military might interspersed with scaremongering about a secret group of poor farmhands and illiterate pigherders in rural Poltava designed to overthrow the Soviet government. As hard as it is to believe, this latter part is a genuine example.

Edited October 4, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Elerond]

Both Ukraine and Russia are able to lose 300k men if they are willing. 

Ukraine has population over 41 million people and Russia has population of over 144 million people.

For example during WW2, Finland lost about 100k men from population of 3.3 million.

Soviet union lost over 27 million men from population of 170 million.

Question is about how many men their governments are willing to sacrifice for millimeter of land gained.

[xzar_monty]

8 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Question is about how many men their governments are willing to sacrifice for millimeter of land gained.

The worrying side of this is that for Russia, both the absolute number and the ratio appears to be much higher than for Ukraine.

About 80% of the 144 million people in Russia are ethnic Russians, so there are about 29 million non-Russians (ethnically). That's about 14.5 million non-Russian males. Out of those, a significant proportion are of the fighting age. Russia is most definitely willing to sacrifice every single one of them, and that's a lot of people.

[Malcador]

7 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I can't see an attempted genocide as a subject where trolling is a good idea. But it is true that there are people for whom everything is entertainment.

I don't see why not, lots of trolling in this war even by official parties.

 

5 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Unfortunatelly it will never work. Unless there would be a complete change at he high leadership. Putin has shown, that he is interested only in his “Russian World” doctrine, and he is willing to sacrifices everyone to achieve this non-sense… Even if UN would supervise last month referendums, he would bribe the **** out of them, to achieve his goals. All he would need to do, is to make sure, that there would be more observers from countries more favourable to Russia, than the West… Russia needs to be kicked out of Ukraine by force. And I say that fully knowing, that the city where I live is probably among the candidates for possible Nuclear Strike as we have NATO Airport with Patriot defense system less than 7 km away from the city centre…

Ukraine is forcing Russia out well enough. If it comes down to nuclear annihilation or Russia having Ukraine though, most of the world is going to choose the latter, though. 

  

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Nah, Russia isn't at war with NATO because NATO hasnt deployed NATO forces to Ukraine

Until then its just some NATO countries supplying military armements to Ukraine 

And money, intelligence, training. 

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Malcador

[xzar_monty]

3 minutes ago, Malcador said:

I don't see why not, lots of trolling in this war even by official parties.

That's true, and coming from them, it's part of propaganda-related tactics.

From Musk, though, it's improper in the extreme, not that he'd (likely) understand it or give a damn, even if he did understand. It's something of the equivalent of Madonna coming along and presenting to the world an in-her-opinion really smashing and boy-it's-gonna-work treatment schedule for Michael Schumacher. The relatives would want her to just go and look a double-barreled one in the eye. (Madonna wouldn't do any such thing, btw.)

There's a school of thought that simple human decency is an old-fashioned and needless concept, but I'd argue that it's not.