Ukraine Conflict - "There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare"

[Gfted1]

15 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Suffice to say that all that careful escalation management resulted in Russian mobilization. 

Its not because theyre getting their asses kicked by Ukraine?

[pmp10]

34 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

Its not because theyre getting their asses kicked by Ukraine?

And how much ass-kicking would Ukraine do without assistance?
Military position of Ukraine is direct result of what the west will and will not do. 

[Mamoulian War]

13 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

And how much ass-kicking would Ukraine do without assistance?
Military position of Ukraine is direct result of what the west will and will not do. 

And I am happy, that my taxpayers money were this way used, and help with the ass kicking of mass murderer’s army.

and here is another reason (one of many), why their army has been asskicked so easily. Western weapons is their smallest problem…

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

Anyway, in some territories of Russia, protests against mass mobilisation have started.

 

 

 

[Elerond]

Today's news headlines from Finnish Newspapers

"This is all that is known about Putin's mobilization order"

"Finnish Defense Forces: Finland has prepared to Russian mobilization"

"These civilian targets would be under threat if Russia would invade Finland"

"Military expert: Russian invasion to Finland would probably start this way"

"Over million Finns would need to evacuate from east to west if Russia would invade"

"New study: Over 70% of older Finns fear possibility of Russian invasion"

"What will happen if Russia suffers another big loss in Ukraine"

"Ukraine war is making Poland an European super power  - 'If Russians lose the  war then someone will fill that void'  "

3 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

And how much ass-kicking would Ukraine do without assistance?
Military position of Ukraine is direct result of what the west will and will not do. 

Difficult to say, as we don't know how much aid Ukraine has received and how much it has impacted their operations. And we don't have any way to measure what would have happened if Ukraine would not have received aid.

You assume that Ukraine would have lost without aid and Russia would not have done mobilization in that scenario, but Russia's initial assault to Ukraine failed even without aid from west and Russia had very difficult time to have any gains in main battle front of the war from start. So it is difficult to estimate if mobilization would or would not happen without western aid. But Russia initial force was not big enough to over come resisting nation, their initial strategy was clearly based on belief that Ukraine would surrender with little resistance. 

[Malcador]

13 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

And I am happy, that my taxpayers money were this way used, and help with the ass kicking of mass murderer’s army.

and here is another reason (one of many), why their army has been asskicked so easily. Western weapons is their smallest problem…

 

Hm, with this Ukraine shouldn't need any new weapons sytems regardless then. 

[Mamoulian War]

Lets’s do math, Russia invaded Ukraine with approx 250k soldiers, with the best equipment they had, and with the best elite forces, which they had. 55k of them are dead, that means another 100-150k injured/deserted/surrendered/MIA. Their best equipment is either destroyed or captured by Ukrainians. Another approx 50k arrived to frontlines as “trained volunteers” and they still lost more land than they had captured since the fall of Lysychansk, and they are losing more every day.

In whose brilliant mind sparkled an idea, that 300k lousy trained and badly equipped  “reservists” can still turn the current tide of the war? Putin just sent another 50k-100k of their own people to die, because Ukraine will not stop. And even before the mobilisation, he already angered almost all of his allies, who feels how weak Russia is. If these 300k will not make any more difference on the battlefield, the probability of Russia ending up torn to pieces, just skyrocketed. And I bet, China is currently starting to do calculations, how to get back all the land, they’ve lost after Boxer Rebellion.

[HoonDing]

Somebody should cast Greater Resurrection on Marshall Zhukov.

[Mamoulian War]

7 minutes ago, HoonDing said:

Somebody should cast Greater Resurrection on Marshall Zhukov.

Unless he became a Demilich and kicked the UA army all by himself, I do not see that even Zhukov would be able to make something out of the ****, that the Russian army has become...

[Mamoulian War]

28 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Hm, with this Ukraine shouldn't need any new weapons sytems regardless then. 

Oh, they do need every single bullet and more... The lower the weapon deliveries, the bigger the number of slaughtered civilians by Russian army...

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, pmp10 said:

I'll spare everyone another rant on making Russia a 'pariah state' or crushing its economy with 'unprecedented sanctions'.
Suffice to say that all that careful escalation management resulted in Russian mobilization. 

The sudden interest in security council makes me think that not a single thing has been learned.  

So when Russia invaded Ukraine what should have been the Wests response in your opinion?

The reason I ask is Putin is only going the route of further mobilization because they losing the military campaign  and he wants to change the current trajectory. So I am interested in  how you believe  this could have been avoided once Russia invaded?

[Lexx]

58 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Anyway, in some territories of Russia, protests against mass mobilisation have started.

 

 

 

tbh the videos I've seen of those protests were very .... lousy. Hell, yearly May 1st protests in Berlin look more impressive than the current twitter videos. It's like those people are at least as badly organized as their military is. Why aren't they forming a wall? Why not interlocking their arms? Why everyone is just standing around alone, waiting to get carried away by the police? This is a really sad display and still tells me that most russians are fine with mass mobilization.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Elerond said:

Today's news headlines from Finnish Newspapers

"This is all that is known about Putin's mobilization order"

"Finnish Defense Forces: Finland has prepared to Russian mobilization"

"These civilian targets would be under threat if Russia would invade Finland"

"Military expert: Russian invasion to Finland would probably start this way"

"Over million Finns would need to evacuate from east to west if Russia would invade"

"New study: Over 70% of older Finns fear possibility of Russian invasion"

"What will happen if Russia suffers another big loss in Ukraine"

"Ukraine war is making Poland an European super power  - 'If Russians lose the  war then someone will fill that void'  "

Difficult to say, as we don't know how much aid Ukraine has received and how much it has impacted their operations. And we don't have any way to measure what would have happened if Ukraine would not have received aid.

You assume that Ukraine would have lost without aid and Russia would not have done mobilization in that scenario, but Russia's initial assault to Ukraine failed even without aid from west and Russia had very difficult time to have any gains in main battle front of the war from start. So it is difficult to estimate if mobilization would or would not happen without western aid. But Russia initial force was not big enough to over come resisting nation, their initial strategy was clearly based on belief that Ukraine would surrender with little resistance. 

Elerond why dont you come live with me in SA? Putin wont invade SA because we part of BRICS 

[Elerond]

10 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Elerond why dont you come live with me in SA? Putin wont invade SA because we part of BRICS 

How is housing market in SA, I have been looking house, but they are over priced here?

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

Oh, they do need every single bullet and more... The lower the weapon deliveries, the bigger the number of slaughtered civilians by Russian army...

Yes, I believe that is the scare tactic pitch.  But had meant new stuff - Abrams, ATACMS, F-16s, etc.  Then again, I find retired US generals blather on a lot and are of dubious value, at least the ones that pop up on CNN et al. . Clark and Flynn got stars right ?

[pmp10]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

So when Russia invaded Ukraine what should have been the Wests response in your opinion?

Decisive.
Experts should have seen by April that sanctions (at least as implemented) were never going to work.
Putin is not the only one to double-down on failure. 

[Gfted1]

19 minutes ago, Elerond said:

How is housing market in SA, I have been looking house, but they are over priced here?

Cheap, cheap, cheap! Pricelist - prices 2022: 3-bedroom house - Procompare.co.za

The largest and most expensive 3BR home costs 3M Rand (R15000 / sqm / 200sqm) = ~$170,000 USD. Even Americans could afford that!

[Mamoulian War]

20 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Decisive.
Experts should have seen by April that sanctions (at least as implemented) were never going to work.
Putin is not the only one to double-down on failure. 

But the sanctions are working. It is not something, which starts to work over night. Their banking sector has started to collapse. And their own blackmail by gas shortages has backfired tremendously. This will be colder winter, than usual for EU, but they have lost 70% of their exports, and all the revenue connected to it. 

[Mamoulian War]

Little bit theorycrafting behind mobilisation from a military historian

 

[Zoraptor]

Have to admit, I got a bit of a laugh being plonked (good to see the tradition of announcing it publicly continues 30 years on from usenet too) for posting the definitions of the International Law/ Treaty in question, from the UN's own commentary.

5 hours ago, Sarex said:

I very much doubt they would use strategic nuclear weapons as there would be no point in those, apart from sending a message. Would they use tactical nuclear weapons? Who knows. If this mobilization doesn't produce results or if there is some escalation towards Russian territory maybe they will.

On a strictly military basis there isn't much use for tactical nukes either. It's not WW2 or a Fulda Gap type scenario, the troop densities are maybe a tenth of either of those. You can nuke strongpoint towns, but if you want to hold them at the end you also have to clean them up- might as well use a FOAB really. Might be different if they had neutron bombs, but I don't think they do.

On a hybrid basis you could probably take out every Dniepr crossing with them, wipe out marshaling yards or power plants etc. +/- 100m matters a lot when you've got a 1t warhead, it matters a lot less when it's 1kt.

[Mamoulian War]

A youtuber has called Peskov’s son, and pretended to be recruitment officer. You can guess, how it did go

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/21/7368505/

video included, for the people knowing the language .

[Malcador]

Some of the Azov may go to Turkey to sit out the war though

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

Cheap, cheap, cheap! Pricelist - prices 2022: 3-bedroom house - Procompare.co.za

The largest and most expensive 3BR home costs 3M Rand (R15000 / sqm / 200sqm) = ~$170,000 USD. Even Americans could afford that!

@Elerond

This link is to build a house but  I think when you convert $ and Euro to Rand buying may also be cheaper compared to Finland 

But it will depend on where you want to live and what size because Cpt is very overpriced because lots of foreigners buy property in the city but in the suburbs its cheaper. Its the same as most cities, property within the city is expensive but outside the city its cheaper 

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Decisive.
Experts should have seen by April that sanctions (at least as implemented) were never going to work.
Putin is not the only one to double-down on failure. 

Interesting post, I wasn't expecting this type of response which is why I dont assume anymore why people say what they say and I prefer to ask 

Sanctions and their effect are a long-term strategy, meaning 12-24 months at least. We have to accept that the Russian economy  was never going to collapse within 1-2 months due to sanctions, its literally impossible and  if you look at different types of sanctions historically like SA, Zimbabwe or Iran  they do work but it all depends on the types of sanctions

But they will work  with Russia  as time goes on and it will require the EU to not be dependant on any energy from Russia, that will speed things up and it just require the West to be unified in not investing in Russia 

You also make some good points about being decisive. I would argue some EU countries have responded very decisively and some could do more, East European countries  have proportionally done the most and I salute Poland's contribution. I know its hard economically and a drain on your resources but this stand against Russia and helping the Ukrainians is about a better future for the whole region and benefits all of us indirectly

 The US has also helped the Ukrainian war effort in many ways and this should be recognized 

[Malcador]

News cycle moved on from wetting their pants over the reactor.