Ukraine Conflict - "A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny"

[BruceVC]

22 minutes ago, Malcador said:

It's amusing but also concerning to see how psycho people are online about this.  Well, I guess not all that worrying, dehumanizing a group at war is par for the course.  Twitter is indeed the best though, so many furiously masturbating over combat footage or posts by Massaro et al.

 

You honestly spend time on Twitter reading Putin War comments? Yikes....how much time ?

[Malcador]

Yep, said as much, and don't even need to go that far back, Afghanistan and Iraq had people saying same crap. 

 

1 minute ago, BruceVC said:

You honestly spend time on Twitter reading Putin War comments? Yikes....how much time ?

Not really, mostly see them from links posted elsewhere.  There are some people worth following with my dummy account but I unfortunately get suggested posts as well.

 

Edited July 28, 2022 by Malcador

[Gorth]

8 hours ago, BruceVC said:

You honestly spend time on Twitter reading Putin War comments? Yikes....how much time ?

I don't read twitter (unless people on these forums post links), but it can't be any worse than when some of us (me) read Murdoch media (Sky News/Fox News, same thing) just to groan at the lies and face palm at the sheer stupidity of comments of those who swallow the tabloid stuff...

As painful as the existence of such people is, it helps you get a better view of the world and sometimes, just sometimes, help you understand where humanity goes wrong.

[BruceVC]

6 hours ago, Gorth said:

I don't read twitter (unless people on these forums post links), but it can't be any worse than when some of us (me) read Murdoch media (Sky News/Fox News, same thing) just to groan at the lies and face palm at the sheer stupidity of comments of those who swallow the tabloid stuff...

As painful as the existence of such people is, it helps you get a better view of the world and sometimes, just sometimes, help you understand where humanity goes wrong.

SM is much worse generally than any established and openly left or  right wing media house because there is zero investigative journalism in most SM and even opinion piece journalism like Tucker Carlson wont say " lets kill all the Russian\Ukrainians slowly and  wipe out there families " or similar things 

[BruceVC]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-disposable-incomes-drop-q2-economic-data-paints-gloomy-outlook-2022-07-27/

Here is an updates article about the state of the Russian economy after 2 quarters, the Western sanctions are a big part of this. Sanction do work but they work slowly and in different ways depending on the types of sanctions 

 

[Mamoulian War]

University of Yale has published a study about how Russia is obfuscating their economy performance under sanctions, and gives an insight about the real impact. 118 pages long.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

Quote

Abstract

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow devolved into a “war of economic attrition which is taking its toll on the west”, given the supposed “resilience” and even “prosperity” of the Russian economy. This is simply untrue – and a reflection of widely held but factually incorrect misunderstandings over how the Russian economy is actually holding up amidst the exodus of over 1,000 global companies and international sanctions. 

That these misunderstandings persist is not surprising. Since the invasion, the Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable. These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin.

Our team of experts, using private Russian language and unconventional data sources including high frequency consumer data, cross-channel checks, releases from Russia’s international trade partners, and data mining of complex shipping data, have released one of the first comprehensive economic analyses measuring Russian current economic activity five months into the invasion, and assessing Russia’s economic outlook.  

From our analysis, it becomes clear: business retreats and sanctions are catastrophically crippling the Russian economy. We tackle a wide range of common misperceptions – and shed light on what is actually going on inside Russia, including: 

- Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas 

- Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy 

- Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst 

- As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base 

- Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood 

- Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy 

Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia, and The Kyiv School of Economics and McFaul-Yermak Working Group have led the way in proposing additional sanctions measures.

Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes.

 

 

very short summary can be found here:

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Edited July 29, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[BruceVC]

5 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

University of Yale has published a study about how Russia is obfuscating their economy performance under sanctions, and gives an insight about the real impact. 118 pages long.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

 

 

very short summary can be found here:

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Manage cookies

 

That is truly grim economic news for Russia. Some of it we know is true, like there financial markets performance, and some its hard to say if it is true

But considering the economic consequence of Putins War its not a surprise to hear that things like GDP has collapsed by 40 %

 

 

[pmp10]

5 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

University of Yale has published a study about how Russia is obfuscating their economy performance under sanctions, and gives an insight about the real impact. 118 pages long.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

That's a propaganda piece not a serious economic study.
If the title didn't make it obvious just check the content.
You can count 100 'Putins' and 80 'invasions' in those 118 pages.

I'd say it's a reaction piece to IMF upgrading Russia's economic outlook.

[BruceVC]

5 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

That's a propaganda piece not a serious economic study.
If the title didn't make it obvious just check the content.
You can count 100 'Putins' and 80 'invasions' in those 118 pages.

I'd say it's a reaction piece to IMF upgrading Russia's economic outlook.

Propaganda  piece from Yale university?

@Mamoulian War

Here is a video that summarizes the same study, its only 14 minutes long and the economic analysis starts on minute 4 or so

And its definitely not all propaganda because they mention how 50% the Russian $650 billion foreign reserve has been frozen and we know its true because of the $ sanctions on the Ruskie central bank

But the Yale report talks about the real damage to the Russian economy  taking 2 years or so which makes sense if you consider how sanctions and disinvestment works 

 

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

On 7/28/2022 at 3:06 PM, Sarex said:

@Malcador No, no, for those peoples death it's ok to express joy and celebrate.

Two days ago, This Russian Soldier (Vitaliy Valerievich Aroshanov) has released a video, how he tortured, castrated and then killed a Ukrainina POW.

Yesterday, Russia attacked a public bus stop in Mykolaiv with a rocket. Not linking here, due to clearly violating the board rules, but if someone would really like to see the proof, you can find in somewhere in the thread about that **** above.

Yesterday also Russia put all imprisoned Ukrainian POWs from Maripoľ in a single building in occupied Olenivka, and launched MLRS Grad into it. Resulting in 50 dead POW and 130 wounded.

And you are wondering, why some people might think, that it is acceptable to celebrate every Russian and collaborator demise in this war

[Lexx]

That video is supposed to be extremely terrible. Worse, or at least as worse as the cartel videos. Apparently it's one of those that you'll never forget if you see it (I haven't seen it myself, want to keep at least some bits of humanity in me.)

Considering this is only the stuff we actually hear about... 

Edited July 30, 2022 by Lexx

[Malcador]

Surprised not seeing that more on news here, good way to get them the ATACMS. 

Russians reinforcing Kherson as well, guess whatever is going to kick off there is going to happen soon.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ukraine-panzerhaubitze-2000-mit-verschleisserscheinungen-a-e0a3bc00-5e4b-40fa-821a-c2d158079133-amp

Was interesting to read this, modern weaponry a bit more delicate, I guess. Well or the rush training for crews is also a factor

Edited July 30, 2022 by Malcador

[Zoraptor]

It's not exactly a video that can be shown on the news, and if you can't show it you can't talk about it much except to say it happened.

For some, like the Brits, there may be... other factors at play too. Difficult to shout too loud when castration was used as colonial policy well into living memory.

[Malcador]

Fair enough, we did have people talk about videos like Pearl and Berg.  But I guess that one is a bit too messed up.  Funnily enough, posted that then was told about it by my mom, I guess she checked some journalist's Twitter or something.

[pmp10]

18 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Yesterday also Russia put all imprisoned Ukrainian POWs from Maripoľ in a single building in occupied Olenivka, and launched MLRS Grad into it. Resulting in 50 dead POW and 130 wounded.

I don't know about 'all prisoners' but it's unlikely to be a work of any artillery. 

Just a single building hit and no near misses to be seen.
Most likely a cover-up over deaths and mistreatment of POWs that were already registered with the red-cross.

[Zoraptor]

That only means it wasn't grads, which was pretty obvious to anyone since they're an inaccurate saturation weapon. Anything precision can hit with that accuracy, by definition, which includes HiMARS and some Russian stuff like Krasnopol.

Though really, if it was the Russians the only thing that would make sense is to do what the Ukrainian official claim is: (they) just plant(ed) explosives; bring in parts of missile casings later.

[BruceVC]

4 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

It's not exactly a video that can be shown on the news, and if you can't show it you can't talk about it much except to say it happened.

For some, like the Brits, there may be... other factors at play too. Difficult to shout too loud when castration was used as colonial policy well into living memory.

Castration has been used in almost  all the empires of mankind for thousands of years, particularly amongst Arab slave traders 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castration

But in the  year 2022 and playing the " yes but Colonialism did it " card when Russian soldiers are doing it now doesnt change the reality that its just another example of the barbarity of the whole Russian military offensive 

So we should be shouting about it, sorry to disappoint you again. Most of us arent going to handwave Russian war crimes due to whataboutism 

 

[Malcador]

Some day I'll find out Bruce idolizes Ian Smith, and will be mightily surprised

In other news  -

That is interesting.

[BruceVC]

59 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Some day I'll find out Bruce idolizes Ian Smith, and will be mightily surprised

In other news  -

That is interesting.

Why would I admire someone who failed to implement necessary  and inevitable political change in a failed minority controlled country ?

But I do admire the  effectiveness and training of the Rhodesian security forces against the Soviet and Red China onslaught.

[Mamoulian War]

5 hours ago, pmp10 said:

I don't know about 'all prisoners' but it's unlikely to be a work of any artillery. 

Just a single building hit and no near misses to be seen.
Most likely a cover-up over deaths and mistreatment of POWs that were already registered with the red-cross.

You are correct, I t looks like I have mistranslated few of the sources I read and watched about that incident. They were indeed speaking about HIMARS and GRADs, but they were more or less trying to rule both of them out... my bad, so sorry for providing incorrect info

I have seen some of the pictures yesterday from the site, and the most plausible outcome is, that it was an explosion inside of the building. The remnants of the building are pretty much ruling out any kind of explosion from the "sky". Some of the evidence seemed like, that some of the POWs were dead before the explosion and a some soldiers were definitely burned, which also shows the evidence of the unlikeliness of use of HIMARS or GRAD.

Most of the sources are also coming to the same conclusion as you. Cover up of mistreatment of POWs. There is also one theory, that the owner of Wagner did order this, due to the "mismanagement" of funds, paid out by Kremlin to cover the expenses with POWs...

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

Some day I'll find out Bruce idolizes Ian Smith, and will be mightily surprised

In other news  -

That is interesting.

Odesa regional administration: "attack in Sevastopol" is provocation and manipulation by Russia.
https://t.me/UkraineNow/15784

Google translation:

The "attack" in Sevastopol is an open provocation of Russia

A number of Russian media reported on Ukraine's alleged attack on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. These are lies and manipulations of the enemy.

"The liberation of our Crimea from the occupiers will take place differently and much more effectively," - Odesa OVA

[pmp10]

9 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

That only means it wasn't grads, which was pretty obvious to anyone since they're an inaccurate saturation weapon. Anything precision can hit with that accuracy, by definition, which includes HiMARS and some Russian stuff like Krasnopol.

Parts of the roof are still standing so we can safely discount anything heavier than an artillery shell.
100kg of TNT from HIMARS would sent the whole thing sky-high.

If Russians are really innocent in this they shouldn't mind returning corpses in condition fit for autopsy. 
I'm not holding my breath.

[Mamoulian War]

Very interesting piece by Timothy Snyder on what comes next for Russia.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/putins-rule-is-weakening?r=f9j4c&s=r

[kanisatha]

Russia facing personnel shortage in the east as they desperately try to reinforce the south facing Ukrainian counteroffensive:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-pushes-attack-south-russia-troop-shortage-east/31963314.html

[Malcador]

9 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Odesa regional administration: "attack in Sevastopol" is provocation and manipulation by Russia.
https://t.me/UkraineNow/15784

Google translation:

The "attack" in Sevastopol is an open provocation of Russia

A number of Russian media reported on Ukraine's alleged attack on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. These are lies and manipulations of the enemy.

"The liberation of our Crimea from the occupiers will take place differently and much more effectively," - Odesa OVA

Will have to keep an eye out if they produce more details on the supposed attack.

 

 

 

Edited July 31, 2022 by Malcador