Ukraine Conflict - "A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny"

[Malcador]

8 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

This is a very salient point. All the other atrocities stem from Russia's initial atrocity

Okay, but in the context of speaking against people committing it, it's somewhat irrelevant.  Unless the defender can do no wrong, I guess.

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

What's interesting about that?

The fact that it may narrow down the number of possibilities as to what actually caused those explosions.

[Malcador]

17 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

The fact that it may narrow down the number of possibilities as to what actually caused those explosions.

Sounds like it could be a wide array of missiles.  All manner of explanations for it, saw Ukrainian Official say it was partisans, now today seeing him say it was Special Forces - I am guessing spotters.

 

 

Edited August 10, 2022 by Malcador

[xzar_monty]

It would also be interesting to receive some kind of confirmation as to the amount of damage the strike(s) caused. It does look pretty substantial.

[Malcador]

Arestovych claims 13 SU-30SM, 12 SU-24MR, 6 helicopters, and 1 IL-76.

 

[Mamoulian War]

That’s 22 more than reported in the morning news here.

Edited August 10, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[xzar_monty]

In an earlier response to @Gorth today, I pointed out how during WWII "the Russians knew that life is awful", and here's a good illustration how this experience probably carries to this day. This is a particularly rough example of Russia's brutality, as prisons tend to be rough places nearly everywhere, but the response -- or, rather, lack of it -- of the authorities is very telling. Life is not worth much in Russia.

This is also significant in the sense that Russia is currently recruiting people from prisons (according to some reports, the oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin has been touring the prisons himself (https://zona.media/article/2022/08/06/prigozhin). When they get to the front, it's easy to imagine the kind of carnage they are more than happy to cause.

So, the BBC article about what's going on in Russia: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62465043

[Malcador]

28 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

That’s 22 more than reported in the morning news here.

Arestovych varies in his levels of BS, to be honest.  Treated like the Word of God by some still

[xzar_monty]

12 hours ago, Gorth said:

Not sure. Maybe something about familiarity and the devil you know? Especially if the other devil is portrayed as worse (the truth is irrelevant in that situation, it’s what people believe that matters). As some clever person once figured out, one of the best weapons against terrorists is winning the hearts and minds of people. But, not being Russian, I can only speculate

I agree that whatever we both say is only speculation.

Now, here's something that is not an example of the same thing but may illustrate this weird phenomenon that might be described as attachment to blatant untruths: Trump supporters insisting that "Trump has never lied". https://edition.cnn.com/videos/us/2022/08/10/trump-supporters-palm-beach-pkg-kaye-nr-ldn-vpx.cnn

There is something particularly sad about the way the claim is worded. "I still support Trump" would sound much less pathological, wouldn't it? But to say that "Trump has never lied" and mean it is obviously a bit mad. Everyone has lied, surely.

I happen to know a case from northern Europe where a fairly large amount of people were robbed of their money in a swindle that was essentially a reasonably clever pyramid scheme. Things got interesting in the aftermath when it became obvious that a substantial minority of the victims were not able to acknowledge the fact that they had been fooled and robbed: they insisted, and with great force, that the man in charge was the genuine article and that the collapse of the scheme was due to a conspiracy set up by the legal authorities. I read a piece on this written by a renowned forensic psychiatrist who pointed out that this kind of thing is not unheard of; whatever terminology we want to use, the fact remains that some people's "identity", "sense of self" or whatnot is not strong enough to sustain the idea that they have been taken advantage of in a big way, and in order to deny this truth from surfacing, they will use extremely strong powers of denial to persist in their fantasy. (A related silly-sounding tidbit: whenever a doomsday cult declares the end of the world and the end of the world does not arrive, the popularity of that cult will immediately increase.) How this happens is not clear, because we cannot penetrate other people's thought-processes, but apparently it's not as if a person like that is faced with a conscious choice and chooses to support the obvious untruth -- what happens is much more unconscious, i.e. there is no moment of choice, the clinging to the untruth happens on a level outside that person's conscious control. This is one reason why it's extremely difficult to argue against a person who has seriously committed to a conspiracy theory or is clinically paranoid: whatever you say can be used as additional proof supporting the conspiracy or paranoia.

The Russian media has been extraordinarily virulent since at least the beginning of the 2000s, and to the extent we can even talk of a "collective mindset", much of it in Russia is probably extremely confused. This, obviously, has been the aim all along. (It is not that different from what happened in the Soviet Union at various times, unfortunately. Some of the more keen observers pointed out straight away that when Putin came to power, the Soviet Union would return, one way or the other.)

 

(Small addition: Russia has just breached Estonian airspace. Boy they're good guys.)

Edited August 10, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Zoraptor]

6 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Are they? Where, and by whom?

I mean, it was literally a few posts ago you were agreeing with the 2nd one and naming it a 'salient point', quoted below.

1st I'm absolutely sure you would have seen too. Take the videos of Ukrainians shooting Russian PoWs (or Georgians beheading them) after the "it's fake!" defence you usually get "So what if Ukraine shoots PoWs, the Russians do it to and they have more PoWs to shoot!". Indeed, demanding an iteration of Russian war crimes in a report about Ukrainian ones is itself an example, and that too happened within the last day or so here. The purpose is clearly to mitigate anything Ukraine does by pointing out that Russia is worse, and that's not how it works*

14 hours ago, bugarup said:

You know what else is a war crime? This entire Russian war against Ukraine. Nothing of this school-schmool thing would have happened if not for Russia's imperialistic delusions backed by tiny waxy garbage man's issues.

"well they started it, therefore everything is their fault so we cannot commit war crimes" is not very far off that at all. It's just rather more towards the "doesn't matter if Ukraine commits war crimes, it's still Russia's fault" end of the spectrum.

*if we want to brutally honest how it actually works is that you get a load of talk about the bad guys doing war crimes and a load of excuses for the good guys doing them right the way up the chain to the ICoJ (and its predecessors) itself. See the Operation Storm verdict which legalised ethnic cleansing as perhaps the relevant example.

[Mamoulian War]

7 hours ago, Malcador said:

Arestovych varies in his levels of BS, to be honest.  Treated like the Word of God by some still

But he might still be pretty close to reality

Edit: Also, some reports say, that approx. 60 military personel, including pilots died during the blast, with another 100 being injured.

edit 2: and another report on what was destroyed. This seems to me littlw bit more plausible as the IL-76 in Arestovych report, was the only IL-76 4 hours before the hit on the airfield, and there are videos of that aircraft flying away with haste very soon after the explosions.

Source from telegram:

https://t.me/UAonlii/34939

Edited August 10, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Malcador]

WarMonitor is definitely someone you should not rely on. Is basically Massaro but with occasional statistics

[xzar_monty]

9 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

I mean, it was literally a few posts ago you were agreeing with the 2nd one and naming it a 'salient point', quoted below.

Please do not twist my words out of shape, it is unethical of you. I am reminded of someone who recently suggested that journalists struggle with their own biases. I wonder if this might also apply to someone who apparently isn't a journalist.

The 2nd one with which you claim I agreed with was, in your post and in your words: "well they started it, therefore everything is their fault so we cannot commit war crimes".

What I agreed with and called a "salient point" was: "You know what else is a war crime? This entire Russian war against Ukraine. Nothing of this school-schmool thing would have happened if not for Russia's imperialistic delusions backed by tiny waxy garbage man's issues."

The whole cascade of events has been triggered by Russia's brutal attack and invasion -- this is a salient point. I have absolutely not agreed with anything suggesting that "we [in this instance, Ukraine] cannot commit war crimes". Ignoring war crimes is out of the question.

Edited August 11, 2022 by xzar_monty

[xzar_monty]

13 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

That’s 22 more than reported in the morning news here.

Satellite images would appear to confirm at least 7 aircraft destroyed with many near them probably damaged to at least some extent. (I wouldn't trust my own estimate as to how damaged and inoperable they might be.) With the lowest possible number being 7, I am not sure what the maximum is.

In any case, a serious hit.

[Malcador]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/09/politics/russia-training-drones-iran/index.html

So I guess Iran did send them drones. We must invade them to defend Human Freedom.

[xzar_monty]

Reports coming in about another attack on an airbase in Belarus, with 8 apparent explosions. I would certainly not regard this as confirmed just now, but if it's true, it's a bold move.

 

[Mamoulian War]

5 hours ago, Malcador said:

WarMonitor is definitely someone you should not rely on. Is basically Massaro but with occasional statistics

I know, therefore I have put the Telegram source as well. It is telegram channel of one of the ”newspaper” in Ukraine. Feel free to put it through google translate, and of course take it with adequate grain of salt, but as I said, it is more plausible then the Arestovych numbers, as some of the OSINT guys have counted 16-17 completely destroyed aircrafts from the satellite pictures 

@xzar_monty High contrast satellite image, where it is possible to discern more than 7 hits.

 

[Mamoulian War]

27 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Reports coming in about another attack on an airbase in Belarus, with 8 apparent explosions. I would certainly not regard this as confirmed just now, but if it's true, it's a bold move.

 

Belarusian MoD confirmed explosions on the airfield in a pretty vague wording. Equipment caught fire therefore it went kaboom.

full statement (feel free to run it through google translate, unable to do it on my tablet now)

https://t.me/modmilby/16963

Edited August 11, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[xzar_monty]

7 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Belarusian MoD confirmed explosions on the airfield in a pretty vague wording. Equipment caught fire therefore it went kaboom.

full statement (feel free to run it through google translate, unable to do it on my tablet now)

Wow. I don't speak Belarusian so yes, I had to rely on google translate. It's hard to tell how much is due to that and how much is just vague wording, as you said, but that's a strange message to put out!

[bugarup]

Eh, it's probably just another case of fire safety rules violation. Or was that self-immolation due to extreme heat?  I think I saw at least three different explanations from russian sources of that Crimea airport incident. 

 

P.S.: telegram statement says that "One piece of equipment caught fire during its test run after engine replacement. Crew started extinguishing it, no casualties".

Edited August 11, 2022 by bugarup

[Mamoulian War]

More aftermath following the AI report.

Co-founder of Swedish AI branch has resigned.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/10/7362634/

[Mamoulian War]

And another example how Russia adhere to international laws, for which was Ukraine so much critisized 
 

 

Edited August 11, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[BruceVC]

4 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

More aftermath following the AI report.

Co-founder of Swedish AI branch has resigned.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/10/7362634/

The US needs to declare AI a terrorist organization and the people involved in the false and biased  report arrested immediately, problem solved 

[Lexx]

Weird coincidences happening

 

[Zoraptor]

17 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Please do not twist my words out of shape, it is unethical of you. I am reminded of someone who recently suggested that journalists struggle with their own biases. I wonder if this might also apply to someone who apparently isn't a journalist.

lol. I note you elided the explanation, I gave

Quote

 

The 2nd one with which you claim I agreed with was, in your post and in your words: "well they started it, therefore everything is their fault so we cannot commit war crimes".

What I agreed with and called a "salient point" was: "You know what else is a war crime? This entire Russian war against Ukraine. Nothing of this school-schmool thing would have happened if not for Russia's imperialistic delusions backed by tiny waxy garbage man's issues."

 

OK, and...

Quote

The whole cascade of events has been triggered by Russia's brutal attack and invasion -- this is a salient point.

The whole cascade of events has been triggered by Russia

--> Ukraine basing at schools is one of those events

--> Ukraine basing at schools has been triggered by Russia

--> since Russia triggered it they're to blame*.

Seems a pretty logical progression, no? And really, what's the point of bringing it up if the purpose isn't to say "doesn't matter, it's really Russia's fault anyway"?

That sort of construction is used all the time to justify things- from playground fights on up.

Quote

I have absolutely not agreed with anything suggesting that "we [in this instance, Ukraine] cannot commit war crimes". Ignoring war crimes is out of the question.

Per above, you have. If "Russia triggered the whole cascade of events" then Russia triggered any Ukrainian war crimes- as they're included in the whole cascade of events. You're clearly not doing it deliberately though.

For the vast majority of people such thinking is also not in any real way deliberated. That would be the case for the vast majority of journalists, I very much doubt they deliberately sit down and think "how can we lie about the situation?" They've just far more likely to give good interpretations to the actions of those they like; hence situations like the huge difference in interpretation between Hamas using schools vs Ukraine using schools.

*the real salient point is, under international law they aren't. The blame is solely on Ukraine- for this at least. Defender gets plenty of extra 'rights', Aggressor has plenty of extra obligations; but this isn't a case where either applies. It's not subject to provocation/ they started it as a defence and the obligations are the same for both. The 'correct' defence is military necessity, and that is very hard to argue when you're using Protected facilities well behind the front lines. The only real question about it is whether there's no practical alternative to using schools as barracks, and there clearly are.