Ukraine Conflict - "History never looks like history when you are living through it."

[Malcador]

6 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Well its the responsibility  of the AU to address long term problems in Africa 

The US only went to Somalia because of a humanitarian UN mission because militia groups were hijacking food and aid and basically weaponizing starvation 

Im not what you expect the West to do in places like Somalia when the AU doesnt even care ?

Yes, and didn't actually tackle those militias until later, and they failed at that when they tried.   But at least they made a good effort and avoided having atrocities (aside from usual US collateral damage..) unlike Canada, heh.

[pmp10]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Media here is banging the drum that they are outgunned and on the verge of collapse again as well.

They well know that nothing in this range will be happening.
It's like the HIMARS situation - they said 40 would be enough to slow-down the Russians and so will receive 4. 

[BruceVC]

42 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Yes, and didn't actually tackle those militias until later, and they failed at that when they tried.   But at least they made a good effort and avoided having atrocities (aside from usual US collateral damage..) unlike Canada, heh.

They failed to defeat the various militia groups because Bill Clinton didnt have appetite to keep US forces in Somalia after the whole " Black Hawk Down " incident 

If Trump or Bush was president I doubt the US would have left Somalia?

What happened with Canada ?

[Malcador]

2 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

They failed to defeat the various militia groups because Bill Clinton didnt have appetite to keep US forces in Somalia after the whole " Black Hawk Down " incident 

If Trump or Bush was president I doubt the US would have left Somalia?

What happened with Canada ?

Well the BHD incident was also a screw up. If Trump were President, they wouldn't have been there in the first place

Canadian troops murdered a couple of Somalis, infamously tortured and killed Shidane Arone, which made people take a look into them closely and the entire regiment was disbanded as a result.  If I recall the rest of the army here sent problem children to the regiment - proof of military intelligence if there ever was any.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somalia_affair

[Darkpriest]

Ehhh... 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-13/us-quietly-urges-russia-fertilizer-deals-to-unlock-grain-trade

[Zoraptor]

4 hours ago, Malcador said:

Yes, and didn't actually tackle those militias until later, and they failed at that when they tried.   But at least they made a good effort and avoided having atrocities (aside from usual US collateral damage..) unlike Canada, heh.

There was rather a lot of the usual US collateral damage though.

Side note: I think it's perhaps the most Bruce thing ever to blame the African Union for a situation that occurred  in 1992, the small matter of ten years before it was even founded.

[Darkpriest]

Well... with a few more days like today and some shock in the economies/markets in the West, the Ukraine topic will vanish by the end of the month... 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/carnage

I still keep my view that it will be post Q3 earnings and forward guidance season, which will create a true economic and social turmoil, but it might be an interesting summer ahead as well. 

 

Ukraine will be a sacrifice on an altar of trying to look strong agains a Russian bully, and this geopolitics is 80% fault of incompetent UK and US admins, which pushed Ukraine towards conflict by giving a false sense of security (as they needed to look strong and deflect politics from domestic issues) . Instead, should UA recognize and implemented original Minsk accords (autonomies of regions within UA) and accepted no NATO access condition, they would be much better off and we also in the West would be much better off economically. 

 

Now Ukraine will be devasteted in whatever state the stalemate will stabilize (most likely a whole south-east lost), with its economy crumbled, no EU access and no financial aid. Militarly they will also be depleted with 0 chances for NATO access. The large amount of freebies are not coming, amd thdir own stockpiles are runnig near depletion. (other than munitions, resources need to be conserved https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/kyiv-suspends-exports-ukrainian-gas-coal-fuel-oil-2022-06-13/) 

 

Edited June 13, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Zoraptor]

There does seem to be a bit of a dichotomy developing between those who think there's a crash coming which should be mitigated and those who think a crash is inevitable and here, and want someone else to blame for it. The US and UK are certainly in the latter grouping; France and Germany more towards the former. Honestly though, I'd expect most companies that actually get earnings reports publicly reported on to keep doing pretty well, for much the same reason grain shortages won't mean you get people starving on the mean streets of Geneva. It will be the smaller players who cannot absorb/ pass on higher prices or literally cannot buy what they need* who will suffer, and while that will flow through to the big players eventually there will be a significant lag.

Ukraine will get plenty of aid, so long as it's corporate welfare stuff or giving away systems that cost money to scrap. It's unlikely to get what it really needs though, which is peace and time to recover.

*big one here being Gib board for building, though that's massively amplified by a moronic monopoly supplier whose monopoly plant spends more time broken down than working. But they sell every bit of gib they make, at inflated prices, it's the small builders on fixed cost contracts who get reamed when they literally cannot buy the stuff; and them who go out of business. Coincidentally, the company that makes the gib also has a building arm, Fletcher Building, which is highly upset at the loss of competition.

[Gfted1]

I love learning something new. Gib board = drywall!

[Darkpriest]

Something I've missed earlier or skipped due to how odd politicaly it would be, but it grabs an attention now as a possible vector to change politics in Asia. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/test-russia-iran-india-trade-route-highlights-shifting-geopolitics

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

There was rather a lot of the usual US collateral damage though.

Side note: I think it's perhaps the most Bruce thing ever to blame the African Union for a situation that occurred  in 1992, the small matter of ten years before it was even founded.

Yes of course its the AU responsibility to address conflicts on the African continent  and before the AU it was called the OAU and it had the same responsibility

And their is a stated goal of the AU to " silence the guns " and that means all conflicts irrespective if they historical. But Im not blaming the AU for conflicts because they not responsible for causing the conflicts. Its individual countries and bad leadership responsible. Im blaming the AU for not doing anything meaningful about most of the current conflicts

Here is a good read that summarizes this view, @Malcador You should find this interesting 

https://theconversation.com/why-the-african-union-has-failed-to-silence-the-guns-and-some-solutions-139567

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

Well... with a few more days like today and some shock in the economies/markets in the West, the Ukraine topic will vanish by the end of the month... 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/carnage

I still keep my view that it will be post Q3 earnings and forward guidance season, which will create a true economic and social turmoil, but it might be an interesting summer ahead as well. 

 

Ukraine will be a sacrifice on an altar of trying to look strong agains a Russian bully, and this geopolitics is 80% fault of incompetent UK and US admins, which pushed Ukraine towards conflict by giving a false sense of security (as they needed to look strong and deflect politics from domestic issues) . Instead, should UA recognize and implemented original Minsk accords (autonomies of regions within UA) and accepted no NATO access condition, they would be much better off and we also in the West would be much better off economically. 

 

Now Ukraine will be devasteted in whatever state the stalemate will stabilize (most likely a whole south-east lost), with its economy crumbled, no EU access and no financial aid. Militarly they will also be depleted with 0 chances for NATO access. The large amount of freebies are not coming, amd thdir own stockpiles are runnig near depletion. (other than munitions, resources need to be conserved https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/kyiv-suspends-exports-ukrainian-gas-coal-fuel-oil-2022-06-13/) 

 

I love your definition of Putins War 

Its the fault of the West because they pushed Ukraine to believe it was a sovereign country and that led to poor, innocent Russia invading Ukraine ....Russia is clearly the victim here  

Its a great story and makes perfect sense if we lived in a   world where international borders dont matter and where citizens dont get to decide their own future through free and fair elections 

 

[Darkpriest]

3 hours ago, BruceVC said:

I love your definition of Putins War 

Its the fault of the West because they pushed Ukraine to believe it was a sovereign country and that led to poor, innocent Russia invading Ukraine ....Russia is clearly the victim here  

Its a great story and makes perfect sense if we lived in a   world where international borders dont matter and where citizens dont get to decide their own future through free and fair elections 

 

You've just provided example, that US would feel threathened should Mexico invite Russians to build bases like the ones they just got approved to deploy in Nicaragua. 

 

I'm not saying that Russia was right to wage war, however you should also not dismiss their concerns, especially when something as simple as agreed Minsk accords were not followed through by UA side for so many years. I'm saying, that US and UK diplomats are ****, and have no idea how to run a diplomatic discourse... 

 

US is also doing a similar mistake around Taiwan. China clearly stated that weaponizing Taiwan will lead to escalation, and US is even more hypocritical, as they mention they agree with One China policy, yet on the other hand they want to support Taiwan on its own? 

[BruceVC]

27 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

You've just provided example, that US would feel threathened should Mexico invite Russians to build bases like the ones they just got approved to deploy in Nicaragua. 

 

I'm not saying that Russia was right to wage war, however you should also not dismiss their concerns, especially when something as simple as agreed Minsk accords were not followed through by UA side for so many years. I'm saying, that US and UK diplomats are ****, and have no idea how to run a diplomatic discourse... 

 

US is also doing a similar mistake around Taiwan. China clearly stated that weaponizing Taiwan will lead to escalation, and US is even more hypocritical, as they mention they agree with One China policy, yet on the other hand they want to support Taiwan on its own? 

You right, I do believe that the US would be very unhappy with Mexico allowing Russian military bases within Mexico

But just remind me where in Ukraine are  the US military bases and when did the US say they were establishing military bases in Ukraine, I am not an expert in Ukraine so I probably missed that?

But lets say for argument sake Russia did setup military bases in Mexico, I doubt the US would invade Mexico because the US would win that war at the expense of the collapse of Mexico and that would  only exacerbate the immigration crisis to the US 

So the point is the US would not invade Mexico unless its security was directly threatened, meaning the US is attacked first like in 9/11

Putins War is not about NATO, Nukes or Neo-Nazi...those are the famous lies and exaggerations

Its about recreating the borders of the failed USSR as much as possible and Putin believing he can decide what other countries can or cant do. He doesn't believe that countries like Ukraine's democratically government should decide the future of their country

And we should all be opposed to this because we all believe in Democracy 

Edited June 14, 2022 by BruceVC

[pmp10]

European Commission will recommend Ukraine for EU candidate status
I wonder if western Europe will want to risk it. 

[BruceVC]

37 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

European Commission will recommend Ukraine for EU candidate status
I wonder if western Europe will want to risk it. 

Interesting, what do you guys who live in the EU think?

I dont think it should be rushed and my view is similar to the quote from your link  below from Macron

In recent weeks, some leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have suggested that it would be more useful to grant Ukraine some sort of interim status that strengthens its relations with the EU. Macron has said that even if Ukraine is recognized as a candidate country, it would take more than a decade under existing accession procedures for Ukraine to join the bloc.

 

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

15 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

Well... with a few more days like today and some shock in the economies/markets in the West, the Ukraine topic will vanish by the end of the month... 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/carnage

I still keep my view that it will be post Q3 earnings and forward guidance season, which will create a true economic and social turmoil, but it might be an interesting summer ahead as well. 

 

Ukraine will be a sacrifice on an altar of trying to look strong agains a Russian bully, and this geopolitics is 80% fault of incompetent UK and US admins, which pushed Ukraine towards conflict by giving a false sense of security (as they needed to look strong and deflect politics from domestic issues) . Instead, should UA recognize and implemented original Minsk accords (autonomies of regions within UA) and accepted no NATO access condition, they would be much better off and we also in the West would be much better off economically. 

 

Now Ukraine will be devasteted in whatever state the stalemate will stabilize (most likely a whole south-east lost), with its economy crumbled, no EU access and no financial aid. Militarly they will also be depleted with 0 chances for NATO access. The large amount of freebies are not coming, amd thdir own stockpiles are runnig near depletion. (other than munitions, resources need to be conserved https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/kyiv-suspends-exports-ukrainian-gas-coal-fuel-oil-2022-06-13/) 

 

The issue with Minsk was, that the Russia itself was never interested in that deal, due to it being against their imperial interests... The war with Putin acting as a Peter the Great of 21th century, the war would happen sooner or later. The later it would happen, the more would be Ukraine destroyed, due to Putin had more chance to modernize their army with NordStream 2 profits... The report on Russia says exactly the same doom and gloom for them, as soon as Russians get back home after the summer vacations, and will be hit with the ****ty reality at home

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Interesting, what do you guys who live in the EU think?

I dont think it should be rushed and my view is similar to the quote from your link  below from Macron

In recent weeks, some leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have suggested that it would be more useful to grant Ukraine some sort of interim status that strengthens its relations with the EU. Macron has said that even if Ukraine is recognized as a candidate country, it would take more than a decade under existing accession procedures for Ukraine to join the bloc.

 

 

 

It is just a candidate status, the full integration will take 10 years minimum, if the war stops tomorrow. We were in the same category, years ago, corrupt as ****, and the change of the government helped to get us into the EU. Th government at UA has already changed for a little bit better, but the corruption will need to be rooted out a lot. And to be honest, having the Slovak and Hungarian ancestors... If Slovakia and Hungary can stay in EU, so can UA...

[BruceVC]

27 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

It is just a candidate status, the full integration will take 10 years minimum, if the war stops tomorrow. We were in the same category, years ago, corrupt as ****, and the change of the government helped to get us into the EU. Th government at UA has already changed for a little bit better, but the corruption will need to be rooted out a lot. And to be honest, having the Slovak and Hungarian ancestors... If Slovakia and Hungary can stay in EU, so can UA...

Mamie are countries like Slovakia and Hungary consider more corrupt generally than other East European countries like Poland, Romania and Czech?

[Mamoulian War]

Now a little bit of war rumours. It is said, that UA army is in their counteroffensive approx 10km away from Izyum. And they were able to trick RU army near Kherson and to the SW of the city, which means they are closing to the infamous Chornobaivka airport and to other smaller towns to the SW and N of the Kherson...

IMHO, this news are in the category of to good to be true, but I will be awaiting evening reports with great deal of curiosity today...

[Mamoulian War]

1 minute ago, BruceVC said:

Mamie are countries like Slovakia and Hungary consider more corrupt generally than other East European countries like Poland, Romania and Czech?

Hungary is something like a small Russia within EU, Slovakia was last 12 years corrupt as ****, with our ex-PM now being under charges of being a leader of organized crime group So we are definitely more corrupt than Czech, probably little bit more than Poland, and on par with Romania and Bulgaria... Oh and our current Minister of Finance, who started as a PM, but was sacked, is probably not corrupt, but with his incompetency, he did as much damage to our economy than the previous thieving scumbag...

[Elerond]

2 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Mamie are countries like Slovakia and Hungary consider more corrupt generally than other East European countries like Poland, Romania and Czech?

https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021

[Mamoulian War]

Looks like we are higher than I've anticipated

[BruceVC]

21 minutes ago, Elerond said:

https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021

Elerond this scoring seems racist, its putting lots of African and ME countries as the most corrupt...are you sure its not racist  ?

 

 

[Sarex]

What a way to go.