Ukraine Conflict - "History never looks like history when you are living through it."

[Mamoulian War]

10 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

@Mamoulian War

Why do you think this? 

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why the prices of Oil will not stay very high for long, because in the end, this is not in the interest of Saudi Arabia

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It could only be true i case in US the oil production would ramp up, with fracking etc. but due to political reasons it won't happen in US. The oil sector in US is demonized. 

India amd China will be getting Oil from Russia at a discount, China will even go for Russian Coal as they seem to pivot to reinstating coal due to energy demand. 

Sauds will have EU and US i  position in which they will be willing to pay elevated prices for some time, surely this and most likely a large part of next year. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-sees-oil-rising-136-month-depending-what-china-does-trader-bets-millions-crude

 

I was just quoting the analysis from the video I've linked. The guy has given me enough plausible reasons, why this outcome might be a possibility in the near future. He was talking about situation in 70's, when to steep prices of oil meant much less oil sold, due to very steep decrease of demand for oil, and in the end, they lost more money, than they gained form the price spike at that time, if I understood that correctly.

What does not zerohedge mention, is Venezuela. The country with one of the biggest natural stockpile of Oil, which does not produce almost anything due to the sanctions. And already two months ago Biden and Maduro were already in talks about lifting the sanctions for more oil. And I bet my hat, that they will find a way, how to proceed with the deal before the **** will hit the fan even more.

 

 

On the other topic, the ISW report, I've linked up has one very interesting mention, which I forgotten to mention, but which says a lot about the bad situation on Russian side of the conflict, and might shows a sign, that the situation will sooner or later shift more favourably to the Ukrainian side:

"Russian private military company servicemen from Wagner also refused to participate in combat, leading to a significant lack of advances on the Izyum axis."

 

Edited June 4, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Gorth]

Continued from old thread....

Just a reminder to keep it civil... and besides the usual forum guidelines, this is not a platform to start hate campaigns, encourage the killing of people nor "celebrating" the death of people (i.e keep it classy)...

 

 

[BruceVC]

3 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Continued from old thread....

Just a reminder to keep it civil... and besides the usual forum guidelines, this is not a platform to start hate campaigns, encourage the killing of people nor "celebrating" the death of people (i.e keep it classy)...

 

 

Gorth are you mods worried people on this forum might start killing civilians  if we say offensive things like celebrating the death of people 

[Gorth]

1 minute ago, BruceVC said:

Gorth are you mods worried people on this forum might start killing civilians  if we say offensive things like celebrating the death of people 

Obsidian is now part of Microsoft and as such, has some responsibilities regarding the public image presented. Being home to a bunch of howling fanatics crying out for blood and campaigning for the killing of people (besides being low brow tasteless) doesn't really belong in of a gaming community. I would suggest people go find political fora for that.

[Zoraptor]

Quote

From Al Jazeera feb 2022 (pre-war info)

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/17/infographic-russia-ukraine-and-the-global-wheat-supply-interactive

Russia, not Ukraine was the biggest supplier of wheat for a number of African nations... whereas Ukraine was a major supplier for countries like Israel, South Korea, Spain, Philippines etc.

Yeah, and the thing is, of course, that Israel, RoK, Spain etc won't starve. They'll pay inflated prices; they'll do so even if it means buying Russian grain. And they'll 100% do both even if it means Africans starve.

The grain supply data shows just how pie in the sky the British 'plan' to get Egypt to run the blockade into Odessa for them of two weeks ago really was, even ignoring Montreux. Look up on wikipedia which African country gets most Ukrainian grain and find that it's Egypt, and hooray it also has the largest navy in Africa. Very promising so far.

Don't check where it gets the vast majority of its grain from though. Anyone care to guess? Hint: It starts with an R and ends with ..ussia. So yeah, Egypt will risk war with the country it gets 80% of its grain from about the same time Russia hands Rostov and Voronezh back to Ukraine.

Yet another Truss special.

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

What does not zerohedge mention, is Venezuela.

(1) Venezuela's oil infrastructure is shot. It isn't just a matter of turning on the spigot, it would take literal years to ramp up production.

(2) Venezuela's oil is, mostly, crappy. It's got gigantic reserves, but it's got very little light/ sweet. Most of it's dark, heavy and hard to refine.

(3) People have been saying that Venezuela- and Iran for that matter- would have sanctions lifted for, well, 100 days. There's no goodwill, no trust, and no desire to do the west any favours.

The last could be worked around, but they'll make the US squeal for it, and publicly. So far that's far too bitter a pill politically for Biden. Hence him going off to Saudi to kiss MbS's ring, since that's more of a personal embarrassment having cold shouldered him over Trump/ Kushner/ bone sawing. The first two though, cannot be worked around.

Edited June 4, 2022 by Zoraptor

[Chilloutman]

30 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Obsidian is now part of Microsoft and as such, has some responsibilities regarding the public image presented. Being home to a bunch of howling fanatics crying out for blood and campaigning for the killing of people (besides being low brow tasteless) doesn't really belong in of a gaming community. I would suggest people go find political fora for that.

I thought celebrating mass killing of people was always part of gaming communities

[Gorth]

4 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

I thought celebrating mass killing of people was always part of gaming communities

Virtual people mate... virtual people

 

[Mamoulian War]

20% of Severodoneck, which was lost during last few days, is back under Ukrainian control.

[Mamoulian War]

Allegedly the 35th Army, the perpetrators of Bucha massacre, has been almost completely annihilated near Izyum.

And here is a translation pretty sarcastic post by Russian Military blogger, who described how the situation around Izyum looked like for this army... It's pretty sad state. It pretty much confirms, that a lot of units of Russian army are dependent on crowdfunding from common Russia...

https://wartranslated.com/russian-35th-combined-arms-army-izyum-is-destroyed-by-its-own-command/

[xzar_monty]

@kanisatha: In response to what you said in the now-defunct thread: Putin does look gravely ill, I fully agree with this. However, it might be nothing more than age combined with the puffy look people get when they are treated with cortisone, and the reason for this treatment could be something fairly benign. So it's hard to say. Impossible, even.

The potential psychological strain is also impossible to ascertain. If Putin lands, broadly speaking, within the definition of a "normal person", he is likely to be quite severely stressed. However, the more he leans towards psychopathy, the less these things will apply. One interesting thing about psychopaths is that they sleep well and they experience little to no fear, anxiety and depression. It has repeatedly been reported that Putin is fearless (this was even described as a fault when he was a KGB man, because fearlessness can lead to overly rash behaviour), which could be a symptom of true psychopathy, but not necessarily -- and no professional would make that diagnosis on the basis of one classic sign. So all we can say is that Putin may be quite stressed these days, or perhaps not stressed in the least. Which is not helpful at all.

Edited June 5, 2022 by xzar_monty

[kanisatha]

Latest from both the east and south of Ukraine (it's a lengthy AP wire service story):

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-puts-more-strength-behind-123926831.html

[pmp10]

So yesterday a grain export terminal in Mikolaiv and Kiev's railway yard were deliberately targeted by Russia. 
Seems the appeals from Scholz and Macron to spare the world hunger are just giving Putin ideas. 

[BruceVC]

18 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

So yesterday a grain export terminal in Mikolaiv and Kiev's railway yard were deliberately targeted by Russia. 
Seems the appeals from Scholz and Macron to spare the world hunger are just giving Putin ideas. 

No Putin started on this " lets starve the third world " (because first world countries wont starve ) several weeks ago with the Black Sea naval blockages

Its not an idea, its a deliberate strategy to get sanctions dropped 

[Mamoulian War]

Very big fish in Russian General staff was KIA near Popasna.

And there are rumours, that even bigger fish went belly up with him as well.

 

[BruceVC]

22 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Allegedly the 35th Army, the perpetrators of Bucha massacre, has been almost completely annihilated near Izyum.

And here is a translation pretty sarcastic post by Russian Military blogger, who described how the situation around Izyum looked like for this army... It's pretty sad state. It pretty much confirms, that a lot of units of Russian army are dependent on crowdfunding from common Russia...

https://wartranslated.com/russian-35th-combined-arms-army-izyum-is-destroyed-by-its-own-command/

That was a good read, I like the whole " Wagner group said we dont get paid that much to attack that position " 

[Mamoulian War]

And looks like Zelensky's balls are heavier than neutron stars...

He went to visit the soldier to boost their morale in Lysychansk... literally bridge away from the hell in Severodonetsk...

https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/1937

[xzar_monty]

Here's a thought experiment I came up with and talked about with a couple of friends of mine. It was more relevant during the shelling of Mariupol, but I suppose there is a place on the front lines that would still qualify. Let us assume that the pope wishes to make a strong statement and declares that in two days, he will fly to the most heavily bombed place on the front in order the stop the Russian attack. "I defy you not to desist", he says.

This raises two questions:

1) Would the Russians stop, or would they just go ahead and kill the pope?

2) Is there anyone else on the planet with comparable authority? Anyone whose fate would move people as much and could reasonably pull off such a stunt with any meaning?

 

My personal answers: 1) I have no idea, 2) Almost certainly not.

[Gorth]

13 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

1) Would the Russians stop, or would they just go ahead and kill the pope?

Russia isn't Catholic, so they would probably just not give a damn. If the Orthodox Patriarch were to show up... a very religious man like Putin may have second thoughts and shell the area around him instead?

[xzar_monty]

Russia sure ain't Catholic, but the pope is such a huge figure. Can't think of anyone that would compare.

[BruceVC]

21 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Here's a thought experiment I came up with and talked about with a couple of friends of mine. It was more relevant during the shelling of Mariupol, but I suppose there is a place on the front lines that would still qualify. Let us assume that the pope wishes to make a strong statement and declares that in two days, he will fly to the most heavily bombed place on the front in order the stop the Russian attack. "I defy you not to desist", he says.

This raises two questions:

1) Would the Russians stop, or would they just go ahead and kill the pope?

2) Is there anyone else on the planet with comparable authority? Anyone whose fate would move people as much and could reasonably pull off such a stunt with any meaning?

 

My personal answers: 1) I have no idea, 2) Almost certainly not.

Interesting questions, I think Putin will   not stop the overall invasion but they would stop shelling when the Pope is their 

I like the new Pope but I dont think he has that much authority, people like him but thats not the same as implementing his ideas on inequality or Capitalism or the ending of Putins War?

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by BruceVC

[Gorth]

Just now, xzar_monty said:

Russia sure ain't Catholic, but the pope is such a huge figure. Can't think of anyone that would compare.

Well, depends on who you ask. For me, he's the leader of the worlds largest and best organized pedophile organization, so I wouldn't shed any tears if a bit of collateral damage happened. His importance may be overrated.

[bugarup]

17 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Russia isn't Catholic, so they would probably just not give a damn. If the Orthodox Patriarch were to show up... a very religious man like Putin may have second thoughts and shell the area around him instead?

Pussolini isn't religious really, but then, neither is current orthodox patriarch. 

[BruceVC]

25 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Well, depends on who you ask. For me, he's the leader of the worlds largest and best organized pedophile organization, so I wouldn't shed any tears if a bit of collateral damage happened. His importance may be overrated.

Was every  Roman Catholic priest  involved and was every region? I also was under the impression the RC church has recognized this terrible injustice

If you follow your argument that means we can never trust any politician or any political party because some politicians are corrupt and break the law 

Its not really a reasonable or convincing way to accept systemic problems like this in any institution?

[xzar_monty]

36 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Well, depends on who you ask. For me, he's the leader of the worlds largest and best organized pedophile organization, so I wouldn't shed any tears if a bit of collateral damage happened. His importance may be overrated.

It absolutely depends, and I don't have much respect for the Catholic church, either. But despite either of our reservations, I would still argue that in a case such as this, the pope would be the biggest figure on the planet. He's religious, and he has a massive church behind him. There is no Albert Einstein figure in the world right now, would you agree?

[Gorth]

8 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

If you follow your argument that means we can never trust any politician or any political party because some politicians are corrupt and break the law

It's no more than a couple of years ago the Pope paid the Morrison government $2million to get their head pedophile and former treasurer of The Vatican, Cardinal Pell, out of jail and put on a chartered plane to Rome... during the strictest phase of covid lock down, where people couldn't visit their dying closest relatives because of travel prohibitions. So yes, I consider him the head of that ring, still protecting the "priests", regardless of how many corpses of raped kids and destroyed lives they walk over in the process.