Ukraine Conflict - Es ist nichts schrecklicher als eine tätige Unwissenheit

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, kanisatha said:

China's lessons from Russia's Ukraine invasion:

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/04/what-lessons-china-taking-ukraine-war/363915/

This is one of the most interesting and balanced  links I have ever  read about the numerous failures of the Russian military campaign  in Ukraine. In summary  these failures from the article  include

• logistical failures and planning
• lack of morale and true belief in the campaign from Russian conscripts 
• corruption within the Russian army
• losing the global media and  information war
• the reality of underestimating the Western sanctions and the damage done the Russian economy 

Edited April 5, 2022 by BruceVC

[BruceVC]

10 hours ago, ComradeYellow said:

 White Western extremists and morally bankrupt Redditors hate Russia

Dont  forget those white, socialist, self-hating, pseudo-slavs living in Western countries who blindly repeat all the Russian propaganda and still parrot this invasion was justified and about  "denazification " 

We mustn't forget those white people 

[Malcador]

Oh no, not socialists

[xzar_monty]

But a more serious problem remains: when someone (or a nation) is in denial, what to do about it?

Edited April 5, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Malcador]

4 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

But a more serious problem remains: when someone (or a nation) is in denial, what to do about it?

Depends on what that person can do to you, generally I would say nothing. For nations, probably holds the same as well, limited set of options - you'll invade or sanction them until they get "educated" ?

[Chilloutman]

5 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

But a more serious problem remains: when someone (or a nation) is in denial, what to do about it?

You can influence it culturally - this one is very long process and hard to do, you can invade it and change government and laws and have standing occupying army(this proven not very effective - see afghanistan), you can ignore it globally and hope they will realize they are isolated because they are the dumb ones - this would work if everyone would agreed on it but we all know China can't wait to buy Russia after war is over

[Totally not Gorgon]

It's like the Russians are cosplaying Barbarossa as the Wehrmacht. 

 

[Totally not Gorgon]

The civilians are probably helping Ukrainians with intel in any way they can, so when the Russians go from door to door searching for Nazis or collaborators the answer is probably that everyone is "guilty".  It's not unlike how the Germans were ordered to shoot Jews and commissars on sight, and pretty soon everyone and their grandmother was a Jew or a commissar.  

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

For nations, probably holds the same as well, limited set of options - you'll invade or sanction them until they get "educated" ?

Please keep in mind the awful possibilities that this allows. In other words: Russia is currently invading Ukraine with the intention of "educating" them. It doesn't matter what you or I think about Russia's justification. What matters is what the Russians think, and they clearly think they're right enough to have started an invasion.

To move this problem into a slightly less dangerous environment: one thing that really staggers me about the division in the United States is that the vitriol directed by some of the Democrats at the Republicans is in no way different from the vitriol directed by many of the Republicans at the Democrats. Once the "discussion" reaches these heights, i.e. depths, it doesn't really matter which side you're on, because simply entering the arena already signifies you're in trouble. Both sides remain absolutely convinced that they are in the right.

This is a genuinely difficult problem.

[Malcador]

1 minute ago, xzar_monty said:

Please keep in mind the awful possibilities that this allows. In other words: Russia is currently invading Ukraine with the intention of "educating" them. It doesn't matter what you or I think about Russia's justification. What matters is what the Russians think, and they clearly think they're right enough to have started an invasion.

The previous sentence said for the individual case it does depend on what they can do to you, if the nation's going to be invading people (which doesn't have to be tied to a denial of their history) then obviously the approach is to stop that - in practice if the nation they are attacking is important to you, anyway.

 

[kanisatha]

38 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

but we all know China can't wait to buy Russia after war is over

This is an astute observation. For a very long time now, I've been arguing that if China wants to invade and/or occupy any territory from other states, the most logical territory to seize is the Russian far east. But now they don't have to, because they can just buy it all, and probably dirt-cheap too.

[xzar_monty]

8 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

This is an astute observation. For a very long time now, I've been arguing that if China wants to invade and/or occupy any territory from other states, the most logical territory to seize is the Russian far east. But now they don't have to, because they can just buy it all, and probably dirt-cheap too.

Trade with China is currently important to Russia. Trade with Russia means little to China, because the important markets are elsewhere. Potentially, Russia has a very interesting future to look forward to, as a vassal state to China.

[xzar_monty]

@Malcador: Yes, fair enough!

[kanisatha]

More and more observers inside and outside Ukraine are beginning to say what happened in Bucha was not the actions of rogue soldiers or even a rogue unit of the Russian military, but rather the deliberate and premeditated actions of the Russian military based on orders that any Ukrainians who did not warmly embrace the Russian troops were "dirt" that needed to be "cleansed."

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-waged-deliberate-campaign-commit-atrocities-bucha-blinken-2022-04-05/

 

 

[Malcador]

 

[xzar_monty]

10 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

More and more observers inside and outside Ukraine are beginning to say what happened in Bucha was not the actions of rogue soldiers or even a rogue unit of the Russian military, but rather the deliberate and premeditated actions of the Russian military based on orders that any Ukrainians who did not warmly embrace the Russian troops were "dirt" that needed to be "cleansed."

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-waged-deliberate-campaign-commit-atrocities-bucha-blinken-2022-04-05/

 

 

As terrible as the whole topic is, one cannot help but be fascinated by the fact how the destruction of other peoples tends to be expressed in language related to cleansing, making places better and cleaner. There's probably a psychology thesis or two waiting to be written about this. I'm sure some have already been written.

It's not killing, much less murdering. It's cleansing.

Of course, Russia has always said the opposite of what it does. During the Cold War, if the Soviet Union came to help you, you were likely to die.

(The most obvious parallel of course being Hitler and his use of language. Apparently, btw, Hitler was particularly prone to the emotion of disgust, specifically, and particularly eager to eradicate everything that triggered it. I am not an expert on this, however, having only read one of the many huge biographies.)

Edited April 5, 2022 by xzar_monty

[BruceVC]

7 minutes ago, Malcador said:

 

I dont know how true that is but I do know its not in the best military interest of either Russia or Ukraine to attack cities controlled by the other  side if you just consider the disastrous  Russian military campaign 

[xzar_monty]

Terrible reportage coming out of Borodianka, a smallish settlement not that far from Kyiv.

One cannot help but admire the courage of the mighty Russian army: it takes heroic bravery and guts to mercilessly attack civilians and deliberately destroy their homes.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

Terrible reportage coming out of Borodianka, a smallish settlement not that far from Kyiv.

One cannot help but admire the courage of the mighty Russian army: it takes heroic bravery and guts to mercilessly attack civilians and deliberately destroy their homes.

Another reality  from Putins War is the ending of the suggestion that the Russian army would defeat the US in war. Obviously their wont be a war between the US and Russia, and Putin can be grateful for the reality of mutually assured destruction by nukes, because I dont think the Russia military would last a month against the US military in a "normal " war 

 

[xzar_monty]

35 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Another reality  from Putins War is the ending of the suggestion that the Russian army would defeat the US in war. Obviously their wont be a war between the US and Russia, and Putin can be grateful for the reality of mutually assured destruction by nukes, because I dont think the Russia military would last a month against the US military in a "normal " war 

 

According to local military specialists, of whom I am not one, the attempted attack on Kyiv was so hopelessly poor in both its planning and execution that it would have got a resounding F in any proper military academy, had someone suggested that in a strategy test. Not quite idiocy but close to it, anyway.

Edited April 5, 2022 by xzar_monty

[ComradeYellow]

Ukrainian T-64BV blown up so hard that the turret wound up on the second story of a building.

 

Fresh tanks from the Czech Republic to Ukraine (T-72s and BVP-1's)

Russia being China's bitch isn't the worst outcome for the Russian people, if anything it'll be good for them.  I mean it's literally the worst possible scenario for Russia and it's not a bad deal at all.

[rjshae]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Another reality  from Putins War is the ending of the suggestion that the Russian army would defeat the US in war. Obviously their wont be a war between the US and Russia, and Putin can be grateful for the reality of mutually assured destruction by nukes, because I dont think the Russia military would last a month against the US military in a "normal " war 

It would depend on the circumstances. Ukraine is fighting on the defensive and is well-motivated.

[kanisatha]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Terrible reportage coming out of Borodianka, a smallish settlement not that far from Kyiv.

One cannot help but admire the courage of the mighty Russian army: it takes heroic bravery and guts to mercilessly attack civilians and deliberately destroy their homes.

Yup. We can now add Bucha to the annals of the Russian army's most glorious "battles."

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Another reality  from Putins War is the ending of the suggestion that the Russian army would defeat the US in war. Obviously their wont be a war between the US and Russia, and Putin can be grateful for the reality of mutually assured destruction by nukes, because I dont think the Russia military would last a month against the US military in a "normal " war

A month?! You are being incredibly generous. Right now, if Russia's nukes were somehow taken away from them, Russia would cease to exist as a state because every single one of their neighbors would be able to carve out for themselves as much of Russian territory as they want. Heck the Finnish army could easily double their country's size!

[ComradeYellow]

4 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

A month?! You are being incredibly generous. Right now, if Russia's nukes were somehow taken away from them, Russia would cease to exist as a state because every single one of their neighbors would be able to carve out for themselves as much of Russian territory as they want. Heck the Finnish army could easily double their country's size!

*cough* This kind of rhetoric is similar to that of the Nazi's after the Winter War, hindsight is 20/20 but at the time the Germans were so confident that the Russian army was weak and inept after Winter War that it was the underlying motive to launch Barbarossa the way they did.

Just because Russians have a history of inept invasions doesn't mean they can't defend themselves if attacked  

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Another reality  from Putins War is the ending of the suggestion that the Russian army would defeat the US in war. Obviously their wont be a war between the US and Russia, and Putin can be grateful for the reality of mutually assured destruction by nukes, because I dont think the Russia military would last a month against the US military in a "normal " war

Depends on how motivated the Russians are in this scenario.