The All Things Political Topic - Those who do not move, do not notice their chains

[rjshae]

17 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

NATO is a military alliance, that's its entire raison d'être, and is localised to the North Atlantic. It gets nothing, indeed a proper détente with Russia literally makes it irrelevant. That doesn't matter at all though, unless the existence and necessity of NATO is itself an intrinsic justification, which it isn't. The countries that make up NATO get a decent amount though. Less military spending. Better leverage on China. A Russia less likely to stir trouble on the principle of the matter and a decent bit more.

You didn't actually answer my question. Why would NATO agree to essentially a permanent Russian veto of future members? There's no reason to do so, unless Russia agrees to something substantial in return. Using that as a pretext for an invasion is a false flag. Under this purported agreement, Russia can continue to threaten and coerce the Ukraine. They've always demonstrated a willingness to violate agreements.

The NATO charter covers, "on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France, on the territory of or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer". Europe extends to the Urals, effectively including the Ukraine.

 

[BruceVC]

16 minutes ago, rjshae said:

You didn't actually answer my question. Why would NATO agree to essentially a permanent Russian veto of future members? There's no reason to do so, unless Russia agrees to something substantial in return. Using that as a pretext for an invasion is a false flag. Under this purported agreement, Russia can continue to threaten and coerce the Ukraine. They've always demonstrated a willingness to violate agreements.

The NATO charter covers, "on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France, on the territory of or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer". Europe extends to the Urals, effectively including the Ukraine.

 

Thats just part of the false narrative from Putin, he is asking for something that he knows the NATO members wont acquiesce to. This is brinkmanship from Putin and he is a master at it and Im glad you not falling for it 

Another ridiculous comment I heard today on CNN from this Russian apologist is that Russia has information that Ukraine is massing troops and plans to invade the Donbas region...so Russia will  be " forced " to invade Ukraine to save those citizens who identify as Russian 

Its gaslighting 101 

[rjshae]

19 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Have you listened to/ read any of the rhetoric that has been spouted recently? What exactly do you think telling Russia to withdraw their troops is, apart from telling them where they can deploy on their own soil?

It's most definitely seen that way by NATO when the situation is reversed, and NATO gets decidedly pissy when Russia tells them not to deploy close to her borders. Of course, those are purely defensive deployments due to Russian aggression, anything the Russians do in response to NATO actions is just more aggression...

Deploying troops is one thing; building up logistics for a major offensive is a different matter. The concern here is about what they may do; not whether they are moving about the country.

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, rjshae said:

Why would NATO agree to essentially a permanent Russian veto of future members?

Not antagonize Russia and keep the peace easier ?

[rjshae]

20 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Kosovo predates Crimea, and unlike Crimea had zero legality per international law. That was a conflict in which British troops were- literally literally- ordered to attack Russian ones by NATO Command, specifically by General Wesley Clark. Fortunately that beautiful fellow James Blunt ignored the order as being what it was- completely insane- and got backed up Sir Mike "I'm not going to start World War 3 for you" Jackson. But still, these are the sort of things Russia remembers; its allies are fine to partition- completely outside of international law too, the only argument was 'special case' not that it was actually legal- and its troops fine to attack.

It really wouldn't surprise me if that sort of thing had gone on throughout the cold war. But that wasn't a government policy; it was an individual's extreme bias.

[rjshae]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Not antagonize Russia and keep the peace easier ?

Again: appeasement. If Russia wants a deal, they can offer something more substantial.

[Malcador]

35 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Again: appeasement. If Russia wants a deal, they can offer something more substantial.

Well if you want to label anything conciliatory as "appeasement", I guess it's a non starter, unless NATO is the master or something.  Seems a decent enough trade to not push NATO right up against Russia for Russia to ramp down and keep things as normal.

[Zoraptor]

3 hours ago, rjshae said:

The NATO charter covers, "on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France, on the territory of or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer". Europe extends to the Urals, effectively including the Ukraine.

Sure, unlike Georgia Ukraine is within NATO's potential area. But if NATO's intention is to include everyone in Europe then that includes Russia too...

Quote

Again: appeasement. If Russia wants a deal, they can offer something more substantial.

Ultimately and fundamentally the idea of a military alliance is not to be self perpetuating, but to make itself irrelevant.

Labeling any concessions as appeasement just means that you're doing exactly as I said: not recognising that anyone else has genuine security concerns except from NATO. From the Russian POV them making any more concessions just leads to more being demanded further down the line, ie it's appeasement as well. And they made nothing but concessions from 1992 to 2008, didn't get them anywhere except where we are now.

You can label any agreement as appeasement if you want. Indeed, such labels are pretty much always a sign of taking a hard line position. Two groups of people labeled the JCPOA as appeasement, for example. Strongly Pro Israel/ anti Iran US politicians and commentators. Strongly anti Israel/ anti US Iranians.

[rjshae]

20 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Well if you want to label anything conciliatory as "appeasement", I guess it's a non starter, unless NATO is the master or something.  Seems a decent enough trade to not push NATO right up against Russia for Russia to ramp down and keep things as normal.

He wants a permanent agreement. As in for all time, regardless of circumstances. Again, what do we get for making it permanent that will make the alliance more secure? Nada. Then why bother?

Edited January 30, 2022 by rjshae

[Malcador]

34 minutes ago, rjshae said:

He wants a permanent agreement. As in for all time, regardless of circumstances. Again, what do we get for making it permanent that will make the alliance more secure? Nada. Then why bother?

Defusing this current situation, which is a positive. Even though it's one for a non-NATO member but when do powers care about whose business they're butting into, heh.  Not as if Ukraine is really going to add much to NATO security other than a headache.

 

[ComradeYellow]

13 minutes ago, Malcador said:

 Not as if Ukraine is really going to add much to NATO security other than a headache.

Correct.  Some people are calling it "Country 404".  It's economically bunk and culturally a mess with neo-Nazi's, career criminals and other forms of junk.  I assume everyone has played STALKER, right?

[Gorth]

3 hours ago, ComradeYellow said:

Correct.  Some people are calling it "Country 404".  It's economically bunk and culturally a mess with neo-Nazi's, career criminals and other forms of junk.  I assume everyone has played STALKER, right?

That didn't stop Turkey from joining when it was convenient...

 

I'm sure that Putin and Ukraine could've worked something out before western interference. Ukraine renounces their (illegal anyway) claims on Crimea and guarantees the civil rights (the removal of which was the trigger of the unrest) of the people of the Donbas region and Russia provides Ukraine with an agreed amount of LPG per year the next 100 years or so (or until Ukraine finds other alternative/eco friendlier energy sources)

[ComradeYellow]

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

That didn't stop Turkey from joining when it was convenient...

....and we all know how that worked/is working out

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

I'm sure that Putin and Ukraine could've worked something out before western interference. Ukraine renounces their (illegal anyway) claims on Crimea and guarantees the civil rights (the removal of which was the trigger of the unrest) of the people of the Donbas region and Russia provides Ukraine with an agreed amount of LPG per year the next 100 years or so (or until Ukraine finds other alternative/eco friendlier energy sources)

Russians never think more than a few years into the future.  It's like they're genetically predisposed to think less than a decade.  Almost like *cough* Americans

The only major power with extraordinary levels of foresight seems to be the *kick/squeel/NO/wtf* ...Chinese.

Edited January 31, 2022 by ComradeYellow

[BruceVC]

9 hours ago, Malcador said:

Not antagonize Russia and keep the peace easier ?

You a student of history, why would you believe and think NATO borders nowadays have got anything to do with an invasion or attack on Russia when it didnt happen in the 50 years or so of the Cold War?

Its a complete false narrative this argument that " poor mother Russia thinks that NATO will invade if its member  countries are near our borders "

This is  primarily about economic and ideological concerns and not military concerns 

 

[Zoraptor]

3 hours ago, Gorth said:

That didn't stop Turkey from joining when it was convenient...

If Turkey asked to join NATO she was always going to be allowed in- same if she wanted to join the Warsaw Pact for that matter. For either the strategic advantages outweighed any other considerations; it's a bridge from Europe to Asia and v/v, and from the Med to the Black Sea, and for NATO it was only their second direct border with the USSR after Norway. Indeed, without Turkey the Black Sea would have literally been a Soviet lake.

Nice place to put nukes too, and then offer to withdraw them from in return for there being none in Cuba.

[Gorth]

I honestly don't know much about Portuguese politics... maybe @Pidesco knows more about the background, but in a snap election, the ruling party managed to hand over a majority victory to the opposition. The socialist party now have a majority government and the far right party became the third largest party (the ex-ruling party being a center right party). Looks like they shot themselves in the foot with a sawed off shotgun???

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-60194375

(no, don't ask me why the heck the BBC stuck that under entertainment and arts)

[BruceVC]

27 minutes ago, Gorth said:

I honestly don't know much about Portuguese politics... maybe @Pidesco knows more about the background, but in a snap election, the ruling party managed to hand over a majority victory to the opposition. The socialist party now have a majority government and the far right party became the third largest party (the ex-ruling party being a center right party). Looks like they shot themselves in the foot with a sawed off shotgun???

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-60194375

(no, don't ask me why the heck the BBC stuck that under entertainment and arts)

But the article says the Socialist party are the ruling party so I dont think they handed victory to anyone, this just affirmed their right to govern ?

[Gorth]

35 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

But the article says the Socialist party are the ruling party so I dont think they handed victory to anyone, this just affirmed their right to govern ?

Bruce... put on your darn reading glasses

Edit: To save you the reading, the former ruling party was called the Social Democratic Party (despite it's name, it is a centre-right party)

 

[BruceVC]

3 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Bruce... put on your darn reading glasses

Edit: To save you the reading, the former ruling party was called the Social Democratic Party (despite it's name, it is a centre-right party)

 

Im still confused, the article says " Portugal's ruling Socialist Party has won an unexpected outright majority in Sunday's snap general election for only the second time in its history"

Who did they hand power over to if they lost ?

 

[Gorth]

16 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Im still confused, the article says " Portugal's ruling Socialist Party has won an unexpected outright majority in Sunday's snap general election for only the second time in its history"

Who did they hand power over to if they lost ?

 

I'm not sure what is so hard.... The (now ex) centre-right government lost the snap election which they called themselves and the socialist party won an outright majority in the election? A bit confused about what could be confusing

Edit: Ah, I get it. The word "ruling"

Edit2: What do you expect from a news organisation that puts this under art and entertainment

Edit3: It means they went from being a minority government ruling with the help of other parties to have absolute majority. I get it now.

Edit4: Not the worlds best written article, I would agree on that.

[BruceVC]

7 minutes ago, Gorth said:

I'm not sure what is so hard.... The (now ex) centre-right government lost the snap election which they called themselves and the socialist party won an outright majority in the election? A bit confused about what could be confusing

Edit: Ah, I get it. The word "ruling"

Edit2: What do you expect from a news organisation that puts this under art and entertainment

Edit3: It means they went from being a minority government ruling with the help of other parties to have absolute majority. I get it now.

Edit4: Not the worlds best written article, I would agree on that.

 , okay now it makes sense. Yes the word " ruling " made it confusing ....you right. Its not a well written article 

[Pidesco]

So Portuguese politics time!

Portugal is a small European country right next by to Spain. We like to call ourselves the third world country of western Europe. We are your standard western Europe economy but with really, really low wages. We have a social safety net of sorts, a national health service that is terrible but still saves a lot of people that would otherwise die. We are permanently in debt and in some economic crisis. We were a fascist dictatorship until 1974, and since then we've been a fairly stable democracy with more or less always the same parties with seats in our parliament. There used to be four parties. The center left PS (Socialist Party), the center right PSD (Social Democratic Party), the left PCP (Portuguese Communist Party, more for workers' rights, especially manual laborers), and the right CDS (Democratic and Social Center, more Catholic). Anyway, as a reference for Americans all the parties to the left of CDS, are leftie pinko parties to you. Now those two more moderate parties, PS and PSD, have always been the parties of power with much larger voter bases, but they have slowly been losing their majorities, as the spectrum has become more fragmented. Now this fragmentation has been the story in the 21st Century. The first new party to show up was BE( the Left Bloc), a party about as left as PCP but more tailored for middle class office workers, and more focused on social issues(abortion, drug legalization, euthanasia, LGBTQ+ rights) than worker rights. They were a big success in the 00s, and overtook PCP as the more left force of note in parliament. There are now more left parties in contention(like PAN, the Animals and Nature Party, or Livre (Free, like a new upstart BE). However, in more recent years it was the right that got more fragmented. The more important party of that change was Chega(Enough), a party( actually essentially a single confidence man, playing the con of his life) trying and succeeding to leverage "economic" concerns, where "economic" means taking away the social safety net, complaining about the Roma,and stealthily longing for the Fascist days. It's the Portuguese version of the extreme right party that now exists in about every Western country. You know, Neo-Nazis pretending they are not because they have better haircuts and suits. One other right party that has now become of note is IL (Liberal Initiative). Basically upper middle class twits of the year. They studiously avoid the more terrible topics of Chega, but still have idiotic proposals that screw over the poor like a flat income tax(15% for everyone). I'm not sure if they earnestly believe in it or if they are just using it as talking point for the gullible.

Now for the current situation. So the last Legislative elections had given a limp minority mandate to PS, as seemed increasingly inevitable. In order to have a proper majority in parliament and the ability to govern, PS struck an unwieldy left leaning deal with PCP, BE and PAN. This generally meant that, for the government not to lose its mandate, PS has to convince the 3 smaller parties to go along with their budget, which is approved in parliament. if not the government would consider to have lost its mandate, and the President would have to call new elections. This is exactly what happened in December. Specifically PCP and BE felt betrayed by PS's budget proposal, and voted against it. So we got these elections yesterday. PS said they wanted an absolute majority(very low likelihood), PSD just wanted to beat PS(very low likelihood), Chega and BE wanted to beat each other, while CDS and PCP were simply trying to survive. Every other party just wanted to take as many seats as they could, however few.

 

So, what happened yesterday, exactly? Well, going into election day yesterday, polling predicted a small minority for PS, and a dead heat between BE, Chega, IL, and PCP(maybe). Small margins meant anything could happen! Well, not quite, it turns out. PS got their wished for absolute majority, PSD was pummeled across the country, Chega won handily against their rivals, becoming the third political force in Portugal(xenophobes gonna xenophobe, of course), IL became the fourth political force(huge surprise),  BE came fifth in votes, sixth in actual seats (enormous defeat( lost like half of their seats), PCP got 6 seats. PAN and Livre got single seats. CDS lost every single seat so they are deader than a door nail(someone literally left a wreath at their HQ last night, lol).

So the real winner was PS of course. They were the only ones who got everything they wanted, and got like the first absolute majority of the past 15 years. António Costa, their leader and PM is very competent and a leader who leads, but also a snake oil salesman, who still abides corruption as is standard in Portugal. But at least we don't have an also rampantly corrupt, "fascist delusions" PSD/Chega/IL government. Chega won the battle of the also rans. It just caters really well to terrible people. IL really knew how to target their niche too, apparently.

TLDR: Moderate left PS won the election, retaining their mandate but now with a juicy absolute majority. Everything else is going to the dogs.

 

[BruceVC]

17 minutes ago, Pidesco said:

So Portuguese politics time!

Portugal is a small European country right next by to Spain. We like to call ourselves the third world country of western Europe. We are your standard western Europe economy but with really, really low wages. We have a social safety net of sorts, a national health service that is terrible but still saves a lot of people that would otherwise die. We are permanently in debt and in some economic crisis. We were a fascist dictatorship until 1974, and since then we've been a fairly stable democracy with more or less always the same parties with seats in our parliament. There used to be four parties. The center left PS (Socialist Party), the center right PSD (Social Democratic Party), the left PCP (Portuguese Communist Party, more for workers' rights, especially manual laborers), and the right CDS (Democratic and Social Center, more Catholic). Anyway, as a reference for Americans all the parties to the left of CDS, are leftie pinko parties to you. Now those two more moderate parties, PS and PSD, have always been the parties of power with much larger voter bases, but they have slowly been losing their majorities, as the spectrum has become more fragmented. Now this fragmentation has been the story in the 21st Century. The first new party to show up was BE( the Left Bloc), a party about as left as PCP but more tailored for middle class office workers, and more focused on social issues(abortion, drug legalization, euthanasia, LGBTQ+ rights) than worker rights. They were a big success in the 00s, and overtook PCP as the more left force of note in parliament. There are now more left parties in contention(like PAN, Animals and Nature Party, or Livre (Free, like a new upstart BE). However, in more recent years it was the right that got more fragmented. The more important party of that change was Chega(Enough), a party( actually essentially a single confidence man, playing the con of his life) trying and succeeding to leverage "economic" concerns, where "economic" means taking away the social safety net, complaining about Roma,and stealthily longing for the Fascist days. It's the Portuguese version of the extreme right party that now exists in about every Western country. You know, Neo-Nazis pretending they are not because they have better haircuts and suits. One other right party that has now become of note is IL (Liberal Initiative). Basically upper middle class twits of the year. They studiously avoid the more terrible topics of Chega, but still have idiotic proposals like a flat income tax(15% for everyone). I'm not sure if they earnestly believe in it or if they are just using it as talking point for the gullible.

Now for the current situation. So the last Legislative elections had given a limp minority mandate to PS, as seemed increasingly inevitable. In order to have a proper majority in parliament and the ability to govern, PS struck an unwieldy left leaning deal with PCP, BE and PAN. This generally meant that, for the government not to lose its mandate, PS has to convince the 3 smaller parties to go along with their budget, which is approved in parliament. if not the government would consider to have lost its mandate, and the President would have to call new elections. This is exactly what happened in December. Specifically PCP and BE felt betrayed by PS's budget proposal, and voted against it. So we got these elections yesterday. PS said they wanted an absolute majority(very low likelihood), PSD just wanted to beat PS(very low likelihood), Chega and BE wanted to beat each other, while CDS and PCP were simply trying to survive. Every other party just wanted to take as many seats as they could, however few.

 

So, what happened yesterday, exactly? Well, going into election day yesterday, polling predicted a small minority for PS, and a dead heat between BE, Chega, IL, and PCP(maybe). Small margins meant anything could happen! Well, not quite, it turns out. PS got their wished for absolute majority, PSD was pummeled across the country, Chega won handily against their rivals, becoming the third political force in Portugal(xenophobes gonna xenophobe, of course), IL became the fourth political force(huge surprise),  BE came fifth in votes, sixth in actual seats (enormous defeat( lost like half of their seats), PCP got 6 seats. PAN and Livre got single seats. CDS lost every single seat so they are deader than a door nail(someone literally left a wreath at their HQ last night, lol).

So the real winner was PS of course. They were the only ones who got everything they wanted, and got like the first absolute majority of the past 15 years. António Costa, their leader and PM is very competent and a leader who leads, but also a snake oil salesman, who still abides corruption as is standard in Portugal. But at least we don't have an also rampantly corrupt, "fascist delusions" PSD/Chega/IL government. Chega won the battle of the also rans. It just caters really well to terrible people. IL really new how to target their niche, apparently.

Very detailed post, thanks for sharing

The Portuguese system of government sounds complicated and a big mess....now I know why you immigrated to Sweden 

[Pidesco]

Just now, BruceVC said:

Very detailed post, thanks for sharing

The Portuguese system of government sounds complicated and a big mess....now I know why you immigrated to Sweden 

It is a very standard parliamentary democracy so I do not know what you are on about. People vote for parties, depending on demographics and geography those votes are translated into seats in parliament, whichever party/coalition gets the most votes gets to form a government with a bunch of ministers, lead by a prime minister. There is also a president, a head of state with limited executive power elected by popular vote, and a local election system where people are elected to county and parish office.

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, Pidesco said:

It is a very standard parliamentary democracy so I do not know what you are on about. People vote for parties, depending on demographics and geography those votes are translated into seats in parliament, whichever party/coalition gets the most votes gets to form a government with a bunch of ministers, lead by a prime minister. There is also a president, a head of state with limited executive power elected by popular vote, and a local election system where people are elected to county and parish office.

Similar in most European countries I think. Power split and re-split continuously, no party or bloc of parties staying in power indefinitely. The head of state being either a president or a monarch. The alternative would be either single party state (China) or two party state (USA) which I just can't imagine being on any Europeans wishlist.