nfl 2021-2022

[Vaeliorin]

5 hours ago, Keyrock said:

Out of curiosity, are the Patriots still villains or has their descent into mediocrity since the Belichick/Brady divorce softened people's opinion of them? As a Cowboys fan, it's obvious where I stand, but for the rest of America, who was the babyface and who was the heel in the Cowboys vs Patriots game?

As far as I'm concerned, the Cowboys are always the heel.  I just hate the whole "America's Team" BS.

I never had a problem with the Patriots, but I've always been a Brady fan, since he went to Michigan.

 

Anyway, looks like the Browns are sinking back to their natural level of being terrible (not that I think they're terrible this year, just kinda mediocre).  Not really a surprise to me, even if all the "experts" thought they were going to be contenders this year.

[Keyrock]

We're 1/3 of the way through the season, here's my current tier list:

The Legitimate Contenders

Cardinals, Ravens, Buccaneers, Rams, Packers, Cowboys

Outside Contenders

Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders, Bills, Titans, Browns

Hoping To Make The Playoffs

Bengals, Vikings, Bears, Steelers, Broncos, Panthers, Saints

Hanging On By A Thread

49ers, Patriots, Colts, Seahawks

Fart Noise

Dolphins, Texans, Football Team, Eagles, Jets, Jaguars, Falcons, Giants, Lions

 

[Bartimaeus]

It should be noted that there are again 7 seeds in each conference, which means while the first five seeds in the NFC are two games or better ahead of everyone else, there are still two more seeds to give after that, which realistically means that every 2-4 team right now is potentially only one game out of being in a playoff spot. ...That said, all of those 2 win teams besides MAYBE the 49ers look pretty dead, and heck, even a couple of 3-3 teams like the Bears and Panthers look potentially dead. At least one team in the NFC is going to have a 9-8 or even 8-9 record and limp into the playoffs as a wild card, methinks...maybe the wildly inconsistent Saints.

[Amentep]

7 hours ago, Keyrock said:

Fart Noise

Dolphins, Texans, Football Team, Eagles, Jets, Jaguars, Falcons, Giants, Lions

 

Lots of 1-and-4s in that list.  We beat the Jets and the Giants at least even if we lost to Football Team and Eagles (other loss was Bucs). I guess that keeps us from being the bottom fart (Lions) of the list.  That's...something.

[the_dog_days]

Pats are a fart noise. They play games close and they are well coached by they just lack the talent, same as last year.

[Keyrock]

3 minutes ago, the_dog_days said:

Pats are a fart noise. They play games close and they are well coached by they just lack the talent, same as last year.

I almost put the Pats in the Fart Noise tier, had the Bills won Monday night I probably would have. I can still see a path to the playoffs for them, as improbable as it seems. The one hopeful sign for them is that I believe they have their QB. I am a believer in Mac Jones.

[the_dog_days]

The Pats are quite possibly the best coached team in the NFL, but Belichick has always had one great flaw as a GM: projecting talent from the college ranks into the NFL. He's had a handful of good-ish players, Brady, and almost nothing but busts when you look at his drafts. Brady covered that flaw. He could make a below average wide receiver look pretty good. His short passing game can open lanes for your wasted of a first round pick runningback. Now that Brady's gone Belichick's flaw is only more important. The Pats lack talent. Trust me, I remember the beating they put on the Jets a couple of weeks ago, but they are only marginally better talent wise than even the Jets. And most of that is because of the differences in where Jones is to Wilson.

This last off season they spent 80+ million in free agency to try to upgrade the roaster. 1) They'll finish with the same or fewer wins on the season: 7. 2) After the season they will have to go into rebuilding mode because it's staticatically proven that spending that much money in a single free agency period will inflate your wins for that season but not the following. I predict that unless they remove Belichick as GM, the Pats are truly over and will be for quite awhile.

Edited October 19, 2021 by the_dog_days

[Keyrock]

https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/damontae-kazee-arrested-charged-with-dwi

Safety Damontae Kazee got arrested for DWI. There's the Cowboys I know. 

[Bartimaeus]

This Packers team has reached new levels of scrappiness that I did not know were possible.

Edited October 29, 2021 by Bartimaeus

[Keyrock]

I wonder if Dak plays Sunday? If this were a must-win I'm pretty sure he would, but it might be wise to sit him another week. Losing to the Vikes wouldn't be the end of the world, losing Dak for the season because he played before fully healed would be.

[Bartimaeus]

18 hours ago, Keyrock said:

I wonder if Dak plays Sunday? If this were a must-win I'm pretty sure he would, but it might be wise to sit him another week. Losing to the Vikes wouldn't be the end of the world, losing Dak for the season because he played before fully healed would be.

Yeah, all signs point to him not playing.

[the_dog_days]

My Jets out gained Cincinnati by 60 yards in the first half but thanks to 2 interceptions and 1 fumble the Bengals have a 17-14 lead.

[Keyrock]

The Lions might not just be bad, they might be historically bad. Yikes!

[the_dog_days]

Cincinnati had 10 points off of 3 turnovers and still lost to my Jets. 

[Keyrock]

Muh Boys did the right thing by sitting Dak and not taking any chances and we still won. The Vikings frequently loaded up the box to stifle our run game and dared Cooper Rush, an undrafted backup making his first ever start, to beat them. Smart gameplan but beat them Cooper Rush did. Well, it was the defense more than anyone that won this game. Still, ol Coop delivered when needed on the game winning drive.

[Keyrock]

@BartimaeusOur 2 teams are firmly in the running for the 1 seed in the NFC. I'd say your team is in better shape in the tie-breaker department by virtue of your win over the Cards and our loss to the Bucs. Kind of early to start talking about seeds, but it definitely feels like neither of our divisions is in question, barring something crazy happening.

[Bartimaeus]

5 hours ago, Keyrock said:

@BartimaeusOur 2 teams are firmly in the running for the 1 seed in the NFC. I'd say your team is in better shape in the tie-breaker department by virtue of your win over the Cards and our loss to the Bucs. Kind of early to start talking about seeds, but it definitely feels like neither of our divisions is in question, barring something crazy happening.

Bears are dead, Lions are beyond dead, Vikings are all but dead for winning the division - the only thing holding that back is the fact that they and the Packers haven't played each other yet. While I would expect the Packers to win both games at this point, I wouldn't guarantee it, not between those two teams (Zimmer's always been the best in the division at beating the Packers, and the LaFleur Packers are 13-1 in the division...with the only loss being @Packers to the Vikings last year - hard to lose the division when you never lose your divisional games!). As for the Cowboys...yeah, that division is super dead, and you've beat the Eagles and Giants already, and I don't see much reason to expect Washington to have a chance in either games.

And so...all that matters is the #1 seed. The Cardinals were the greatest obstacle to the Packers in getting it and I had already thought it lost between the short week, our injuries, and playing @ there, but having beat them, I now believe the Packers can find a way beat anybody.

1. Buccaneers just lost to the Saints somehow, but they legitimately only have one decent opponent left in the Bills for the rest of the season. Really, their schedule is a joke - them losing to the Saints was super important for anybody else to be able to claim the #1 seed, I think.
2. Cardinals have a decent slate of opponents left, including the Rams, week 18 Seahawks (Wilson will probably be back), @49ers, and most pertinent to you, @Cowboys.
3. Rams have @Packers, vs. Titans, @Cardinals, vs. Seahawks (week 15), @Ravens, 2x49ers, @Vikings. That is quite the remaining schedule - pretty much impossible for them to win all those.
4. Cowboys have @Chiefs, vs. Raiders, vs. Cardinals for their remaining "difficult" games.
5. Packers have @Chiefs, 2xVikings, vs. Rams, @Ravens for their remaining "difficult" games.

Obviously, any team can drop any game any week - that's the nature of the NFL. But if I had to favor a team getting the #1 seed, I think I like the Buccaneers followed by the Cowboys best, especially because I think the Buccaneers are probably the most complete team (bizarrely bad defensive performance against the Saints notwithstanding), while I think the Cowboys are very likely to inexplicably drop one game to a bad team at some point in addition to likely losing at least a couple of their remaining "difficult" games...as well as having the losing head-to-head against the Buccaneers. After that, I'd probably tie Cardinals and Packers for next most likely, and then Rams the last - owing to their ridiculous remaining schedule.

Edited November 1, 2021 by Bartimaeus

[Keyrock]

I'm so proud of muh Boys for pulling out that W last night. There were so many opportunities to fold and it would have been completely forgivable; we were on the road with an undrafted backup who had previously thrown a grand total of 3 regular season NFL passes and we could afford to take a L because our division is trash. Cooper Rush gets obliterated on a sack and fumbles because Tony Pollard missed his assignment (as good a rusher as Pollard is, Zeke is a much better blocker). Right there the Cowboys of the past 25 years fold and lose the game 9 out of 10 times. Not this year.  The defense stepped up, forced a 3 and out, and got the offense back on the field. Micah Parsons is blossoming into one of the best linebackers in the league. It seems like he had a hundred tackles last night.

Edited November 1, 2021 by Keyrock

[Keyrock]

I keep giving the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt, because they've been in the last 2 superbowls big games and won 1 of them, but they look super shaky this year. I know they won last night, but that was an extremely unconvincing win over the lowly Giants.

In other news, I was very wrong about the Browns. At the start of the season, I picked a Browns vs Rams superbowl big game. Half of that seems on-track, it ain't the AFC side. In retrospect, that was a really stupid pick by me. I mean, their QB is Baker Mayfield. The Browns are stuck in a really weird place that I refer to as The Andy Dalton Conundrum (alternatively The Jay Cutler Conundrum). Legit starting QBs are a prized commodity because there are never nearly enough to go around. Baker Mayfield is a legit starter, but only just barely. I can't say that you can't win the big game with a QB of that level, because Trent Dilfer has a ring, but you need a historically good defense, which they don't have. What do you do? Do you build around and overpay a mediocre QB in hopes you can build a team strong enough to win it all anyway? Getting a better QB through free agency or the draft is going to be quite tough, especially since you will be picking mid-round every year. Even if you mortgage the farm to move up in the draft, there's no guarantee one of the top 2 QBs in any given draft will truly pan out.

Edited November 2, 2021 by Keyrock

[Bartimaeus]

1 hour ago, Keyrock said:

I keep giving the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt, because they've been in the last 2 superbowls big games and won 1 of them, but they look super shaky this year. I know they won last night, but that was an extremely unconvincing win over the lowly Giants.

They, as well as the Seahawks, look so much like the dysfunctional Packers of the latter McCarthy years, it actually pains me to watch either of them. Elite QBs that don't seem to have any faith in their teams and are frequently playing out of rhythm heroball that treads the line between utter brilliance (when it works) and flabbergastingly awful (when it doesn't)...combined with the team around them actually being pretty mediocre and putting them in bad spots. Mahomes is a lot less conservative than Rodgers was - Rodgers would kind of go into his shell where he would never give his receivers a chance unless they were wide open and would just constantly throw the ball away rather than trying to force anything or risk them screwing up (IIRC, he actually set the all-time record for most throwaways back in 2018, McCarthy's last year). Mahomes looks to be a bit of the opposite mindset, though not as bad as a certain other QB on the Colts who seems willing to throw entire games...and maybe even his life away for even the slightest chance of making a play.

I'm not sure what's going on with the Browns - they have a lot of talent, including healthier receiving talent than they had last year, but it just seems like the team doesn't have much chemistry and isn't quite working as it should right now. I hope Baker Mayfield gets back to more how he played last year - even just being solid like he was then had to have felt like the second coming in comparison to what the Browns have experienced over the last 20 years.

Edited November 2, 2021 by Bartimaeus

[Keyrock]

1 hour ago, Bartimaeus said:

I'm not sure what's going on with the Browns - they have a lot of talent, including healthier receiving talent than they had last year, but it just seems like the team doesn't have much chemistry and isn't quite working as it should right now. I hope Baker Mayfield gets back to more how he played last year - even just being solid like he was then had to have felt like the second coming in comparison to what the Browns have experienced over the last 20 years.

I see Baker Mayfield as Kirk Cousins 2.0. He shows just enough to get someone to overpay him and apologists to invent reasons why the team isn't getting the job done (it's the coach, the receivers, the O line, never the QB). I don't ever see him being The Guy.

[Gfted1]

Raiders WR Henry Ruggs III to be charged with DUI resulting in death.

[Bartimaeus]

8 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

Raiders WR Henry Ruggs III to be charged with DUI resulting in death.

So dumb, especially for a guy whose best friend was killed in a car accident and made that specific point a part of his motivation for succeeding.

8 hours ago, Keyrock said:

I see Baker Mayfield as Kirk Cousins 2.0. He shows just enough to get someone to overpay him and apologists to invent reasons why the team isn't getting the job done (it's the coach, the receivers, the O line, never the QB). I don't ever see him being The Guy.

Too small of a sample size for me so far to say for sure, but last year he showed better performance under pressure than I think Kirk ever has - exactly where that poor man always falls apart and makes everyone remember him as a fraud.

Edited November 3, 2021 by Bartimaeus

[Vaeliorin]

As a Browns fan, I was going to compare Mayfield to Vinny Testaverde (for some reason I thought he won a Super Bowl with the Ravens, but it looks like I was wrong) but Trent Dilfer is also an accurate comparison.  I really hated when the Browns drafted Mayfield as I felt he was too immature to be a franchise quarterback but he seems to have grown up quite a bit.  I don't think he's ever going to be great, but he's likely to be serviceable (which would be an improvement for the Browns.)

Injuries have been a decent part of the Browns problem, but Mayfield hasn't played very well this year (admittedly, he's injured and I honestly think the Browns should tell him to get the surgery he apparently needs and look at this as a lost year.)  The defense seems to have fallen apart the last couple of weeks as well.

Truth be told, I think the Browns actually really over performed last year.  They might barely be good enough to make the playoffs when they play up to their talent level, but I don't think they have a good enough team to actually win.  The defense isn't good enough, and the receiving core just doesn't seem to be as good in actual games as they are on paper.

[Gfted1]

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers tests positive for COVID-19.