Amentep

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Crossing the street? Its un-possible! See to get to the far side of the street, you have to cross half the way there, yes? Then you have to cross halfway from the middle of the street to the far side, yes? And then halfway from that point, etc. So in essence you will be walking 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2x .... x 1/2 or 1/(2^X). Since this value never actually reaches 0 as x->infintiy, you will get close to - but never actually reach - the far side of the street. (A little math humour there)

The problem is that you're approaching it as dependent; ie only someone who has won once can participate (order matters) in the next lottery and there are only four tries within which to complete the objective. In this case, if you actually want to calculate the odds of anyone winning 4 lotteries you have to look at the total number of lotteries played in conjunction with the odds for the lottery (or each lottery if they have different odds), you can't just look at the odds of winning and multiplying them together. The odds of getting two heads Heads in two Tries (HH) is 25% HH - win HT - lose TH - lose TT - lose The odds of getting two Heads in four tries without specifying an order is 11/16 HHHH - Win HHHT - Win HHTH - Win HHTT - Win HTHH - Win HTHT - Win HTTH - Win HTTT - lose THHH - Win THHT - win THTH - Win THTT - Lose TTHH - Win TTHT - Lose TTTH - Lose TTTT - Lose The odds of getting two heads in a row in four tries dips down to 8/16 HHHH - Win HHHT - Win HHTH - Win HHTT - Win HTHH - Win HTHT - lose HTTH - lose HTTT - lose THHH - Win THHT - Win THTH - lose THTT - Lose TTHH - Win TTHT - Lose TTTH - Lose TTTT - Lose

The only way this works is if you're trying to calculate the odds of someone winning a game of chance in which winning the first time is a pre-requisite for eligibility to play the second time. The lottery doesn't work that way, though, since anyone can play the second time regardless of the result the first time around; in other words the probability of winning doesn't actually change in terms of the 4th one vs the 1st one.

Yeah spelling was the worst bit for the BG names for me. I think I typed 20 different variations on Jaheira before I got it right. At least with the Planescape factions they'd take the common names as well as official names of the factions (so it'd take Hardheads or Harmonium).

I've been playing it too - and so far it hasn't annoyed me like other Dragon Quest games. It is a bit of a jRPG & western dungeon crawl mash-up (plus side-quests and skill paths cor classes). My only other experience with a DQ game with jobs was that it took a bit before you could switch over as well. Also been playing a bit of Persona3Portable, Sacred 2 and Lego Harry Potter.

Yeah, I've always thought there was something sinister about math. Forget religion and politics, math is the root of all evil square root of all evil.

I always thought Anselm's ontological argument was fun. I stumbled across this in one of my old statistics books, I thought it was neat: "Informally speaking, two events A and B are independent if the occurrence or nonoccurrence of either one does not affect the probability of the occurrence of the other..." - John E. Freund's Mathematical Statistics, Irwin Miller and Marylees Miller, Prentice Hall 1999.

A friend right after the end of the world cup sent me a link to an online news source that had two articles up, each indicating a different team had won the world cup. So I think the answer is "Yes, nobody edits these online newspapers."

I think the animated gif avatar of him disappearing into Goatse man took about two hours before I saw it (it may have arrived earlier). But simple stuff was up in minutes.

Dear god.../hug/ hahaha! Well I knew the job was dangerous when I volunteered for it. But my that was...a very different weekend. Still didn't really justify some of the stuff people did IMO - angry over the announcement or not. It did answer the age old question of how quickly users could post animated gifs of FOBOS producer Chuck Cuevas having horrible things happen to him, though.

I think Fallout Rage threads exist wherever Fallout Threads exist. I still have "fond" memories of the weekend after Fallout: Brotherhood of Steel was announced back when I was still a mod for Interplay...

In my case my computer still isn't up to snuff to play modern games.

I think its an "extreme example", not actually a reflection of you or your post.

That's confirmed? That's a real bummer; makes you wonder why they did not have him record a generalized intro (loosely usable for New Vegas, or something else), while they had him in the studio. Huh? No, it isn't. I don't honestly know why mkreku mentioned it. I think because a few pages back someone had said something along the lines of it not being a Fallout game if Perlman didn't do an intro.

I'll buy it on a console.

I enjoyed the Black Cauldron when I saw it many years ago at the theater when it came out. I remember being upset seeing the production art for it after THE FOX AND THE HOUND came out and thinking it'd never be done (Disney had, of course, announced that they were leaving animation behind. It was around this time that they started the Disney "PG Initiative" that gave us Watcher in the Woods and The Black Hole) I like all forms of animation; I'd hate to think of Disney foregoing traditional animation entirely (just as I'd hate to think that no one would do stop motion animation like Henry Selick as well)

Disney said that both Lilo and Stitch and Princess and the frog were their last hand drawn animations They shut down their animation studio after THE FOX AND THE HOUND, with preproduction on the Black Cauldron already underway.

I hate myself already.

Its not a 50/50 chance at that point? Nope. The way its set up each door has a 1/3 chance to have a car. When the player picks a door their door has a 1/3 chance of having the car, as do the other two. So the player's door has a 1/3 chance to have the car, while the remaining doors have 2/3. When Monty Hall reveals the door with the goat amid the other two, it means that the 2/3 chance the other two have are now with the door that didn't have a goat and that the player didn't pick. So the player will win a car by switching 2/3 of the time, compared to the 1/3 if he stays.

Unambiguous Monty Hall Problem: "Suppose you're on a game show and you're given the choice of three doors [and will win what is behind the chosen door]. Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats [unwanted booby prizes]. The car and the goats were placed randomly behind the doors before the show. The rules of the game show are as follows: After you have chosen a door, the door remains closed for the time being. The game show host, Monty Hall, who knows what is behind the doors, now has to open one of the two remaining doors, and the door he opens must have a goat behind it. If both remaining doors have goats behind them, he chooses one [uniformly] at random. After Monty Hall opens a door with a goat, he will ask you to decide whether you want to stay with your first choice or to switch to the last remaining door. Imagine that you chose Door 1 and the host opens Door 3, which has a goat. He then asks you "Do you want to switch to Door Number 2?" Is it to your advantage to change your choice?" The answer is "yes, it is to your advantage to change your choice"

To be fair, a lot of mathematicians and statisticians are utterly clueless when it comes to the Monty Hall problem/fallacy. It's awesome. Yes, yes it is awesome. That doesn't help that reading through this thread reminded me of that long lost, grand time.

It can't really be argued IMO that he wouldn't have plead guilty if he'd known what sentence he'd have gotten because we actually don't know what sentence he'd have gotten, since he never got his final sentence. He fled the country rather than face that. Just because the judge mentioned that something was possible doesn't mean that it would have actually happened (and arguably he'd have had ground to appeal, depending on what had been brokered in the deal).

There's been a lot said about the mother and Polanski; according to the girls testimony though Polanski asked her and her mom if it was okay for Polanski to use her as a model for Polanski's photography; later they arranged a time for him to do so where the incident in question happened. "Cheating into confessing"? He plea bargained to a lesser charge. Whether he did this simply to avoid jail time as he claims, there's no indication that his plea was coerced; the problem from Polanski's perspective has always been the sentencing (this was in fact what the Swiss court wanted to investigate and when they didn't get records from the US Justice Dept they let him go; Polanski claims that his original sentence was to 90 days psychiatric evaluation; he didn't serve all of it at which point the judge suggested that having him serve the rest of the time in jail and an agreement that Polanski would leave the country as opposed to transferring the evaluation time to time served on his sentence along with some probation time. Instead of attending the final sentencing, Polanski fled the country).