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Everything posted by barakav
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How do you rate PoE
barakav replied to Namutree's topic in Pillars of Eternity: General Discussion (NO SPOILERS)
It is the Renaissance since there are guns so they should have had toilets in this era. And magic is rare enough so only a few can use it. It's an awful hole in the games' lore that breaks my immersion. -
How do you rate PoE
barakav replied to Namutree's topic in Pillars of Eternity: General Discussion (NO SPOILERS)
I am still waiting for a lore explanation about bathrooms. Does creatures in Eora take a dump at all? Are there any toilets in the world or do people take a dump in the rivers like in India? The rivers looked too clean though and if we keep it in our infinite inventory we should have the ability to use it to attack enemies... -
I actually heard that there were more mutations during flipping eras as the earths' magnetic field does help in deflecting cosmic radiation that can f*ck badly with the DNA ,but I admit that I never checked this out for myself... Unpleasant is a relative term and so is "fast" ,The meteor that destroyed the dinosaurs killed more species faster and yet life endured. It will just take another few millions. The main problem here is that humanity is in danger because the damage will hurt us eventually as there will be no fish to eat anymore and generally less edible biomass in the world and less oxygen to breath. first of all a very interesting read, thank you! second of all .In regard to the planktons' case this is exactly an example for a missing process in the examples that you posted but even if you will try to insert this into your model in the first place you will have two problems: the first one is that to calculate/guess the right parameters to put into your model (even with the emulator) you will need to have enough data from either physical models or real life observation and this will take time. The second one is that to build the model in the first place you'll need to understand how exactly the plankton deaths influence the oceans ecosystems and no one can predict the exact biological implication of something like that (For example maybe in some areas after a certain amounts of phytoplanktons' deaths there will be an increase in the number of bacterial species that uses Rhodopsins for photosynthesis and then some of the effect will be reversed or negated) so again you will need a lot of observational data and even then ecology is quite chaotic as there are so many underlying processes and unknown parameters. About the unethical part ,I don't think all scientist are unethical ,but the media and the politicians that are using those models to spread fear definitely are... Even if a model is not very precise and is poorly correlated with reality because it omits many things it will still make the headlines and cause fear without mentioning the limitations of the theory and lets face it ,this fear does help the scientists in the monetary side... Eventually the climate guys will have to use their own judgment like some biophysicists do , IMO there is just no other way to deal with such complicated systems. I am not trolling them because I am a SIJW ,I just want to watch the world burn!
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As I scientist, I won't deny climate change, but I'd say that the progressing polution of the oceans is actually far more severe than the climate change. After all, we know how to stop climate change already (renewable energy sources; reduction of cattle). But we haven't found an effective way to clean the oceans yet. I agree with you but I am pretty sure the life there will eventually adapt to the pollution (extinction is a natural part of evolution). But ye we might get extinct in the process. I'm so proud of the guys in this thread and how they managed to turn it this way, and that's not sarcasm. In one night they managed to completely derail the thread and re-rail it into something actually fun to talk about. This is the best way of trolling SJW threads changing the subjects' annoys the **** out of them. It is just like the sausage thread.
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mm just found one: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/315/5810/368.full science is a good journal... lets look at the conclusion for a sec: Those models don't consider many different things and are mostly f*cking linear approximations. I haven't read everything but I will ,and I am wondering if they included the factor of the underwater ice... But hey ,they published in science...
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Again ,the fact that these things happen every once in a while does not change the fact that those sources are better than stupid government sites to see whats really going on in the scientific community. And even if such thing is published it is usually gets hammered pretty fast by the readers if it is really bad and related to something as relevant as global warming... And if you have any idea about what you are reading you can judge by yourself.
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And there is also this one: http://www.iflscience.com/technology/journal-accepts-paper-reading-get-me-your-****ing-mailing-list so what? Those are crappy journals that nearly no one reads anyways.Even the authors didn't bother to read the articles before publication. The better journals with the higher impact factor are rigorously peer reviewed so such crap almost never gets published. Even so someone with a bit of knowledge in a subject can make the difference between crap and real science. BTW it is pretty good that some journals publish everything ,Einsteins' famous papers wouldn't have been published if the journal he published them in was fully Peer reviewed.
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Don't bother with adding stupid political sites. There is an argue in the scientific journals and I rather stick to that... The National Climate Assessment (which has generally been criticized for being too conservative) and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administrations are political sites? Yes, of course everyone who is getting their salary from a government based on how terrifying their predictions are ,do have interests in keeping their predictions that way. a.You never saw how physicists make such models have you? approximations upon approximations because the exact problem is too complicated to be solved directly by any means available (Exponential complexity as I already stated ). The truth is that history shows pretty well that trying to predict the long term sea levels is very difficult. The earth atmosphere is influenced by the activity of the sun ,by cosmic radiation and by all kind of chemical reactions that might influence sea temperatures and levels. For example right now China is dumping tons of waste into the oceans and this process makes the plankton finish all of the air supply in the shallow waters and die. This by itself changes the amount of photosynthesis worldwide and might as well influence the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere in the coming years. Tell me now ,how do you factor something like that into a rigid physical model? the answer is you can't ,at least not without getting enough data for a few years... b. They are not "lying" but exaggerating when it comes to publicity and convincing others to give them grants. Usually the highly technical papers in the scientific journals are more objective (Not always as everyone are prone to being skewed) c.Again ,if sea levels rising was such a severe problem in the last decades ,everyone should have been influenced by now. I'll just repeat that I don't think that global warming is a lie but I do believe that the prediction that sea levels will rise at an alarming rate is not very well supported.
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A.Probably the only things that you can predict accurately are based on how far every point on the earth surface is from the sun , the fact that there are cooler seasons partly depends on the amount of heat that is getting into an area from the sun. But predicting sea levels is something completely different and virtually impossible (as the examples I mentioned showed). BTW ,this summer was the coolest/rainiest summer I remember in Israel on the last decade and no one predicted that. B.It is not a conspiracy but a planned exaggeration. I personally met with many climate physicists that are more skeptical on the sea level theories but when it comes to getting their donation for research ,you should see the crap everyone write in their donation requests to prove how important the stuff they do is. It is relevant to other fields as well and not only to climate science... C. If it was such a great increase it would have been felt everywhere. The fact that it is local only shows how miniature the increase was (if there was any increase at all you know ,even scientific papers aren't always correct).
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A. Most models in these fields are full of crap. You can't accurately predict the weather in the next week and you want to predict what will happen in 50 years? there are too many variables and the problem complexity is exponential. B.There are also models that don't predict a meter in a decade. Anyone can create a forecast and the truth is that scientists are getting their fundings based on how important their work seems to be so scaring everyone is in their best interest... C. So where is the rise of the sea levels then? I am living close to the sea and I can tell you that sea levels haven't risen in the last 20 years. At least the distance between the buildings on the shore and the water hasn't change.
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Don't bother with adding stupid political sites. There is an argue in the scientific journals and I rather stick to that... Suffice to say Global warming is probably real but it is not necessarily 100% human made and it might not be as dangerous as Manbearpig enthusiastic will have you believe... I rather talk about Nikola Tesla and how ****ed Edison was for destroying and stealing his life work...
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Wendersnaven!! Wendersnaven!! in 1995 I heard a news report that claimed that "scientists" estimate that by 2005 major cities worldwide will be flooded. in 2000 I heard reports that it will happen by 2010 now they are crapping about 2015!! After working with some relevant fellas in the academy myself I now understand how the media always publishes the nutjobs and the post apocalyptic prophecies trying to influence politics and stuff... The truth is that ice takes more space than liquid water and most of the ice in the poles is under water so most models don't predict that the water levels will rise that much ,and some predict that it won't rise at all or decline. But some political parties world wide do need to scare people with their "science" to get more votes. This is the extent of much of the global warming propaganda...
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Oh great I love climate ,Jewish ,sociology stuff!! I am pretty sure that we are at the dawn of a new ice age thanks to the suns' neutral activity cycle as a neutral thermonuclear reactor so global warming is a good thing... Go CO2! I am also not very sure that the cause of the warming in the last decade was human ,again the sun did have a short spike of activity just before the heating.,.
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PoE Sales?
barakav replied to Palmtuna's topic in Pillars of Eternity: General Discussion (NO SPOILERS)
It has an algorithm that samples a constant amount of randomly chosen players on steam and might not be able to extrapolate to more than a certain amount 'thanks' to its' limited pool... I think that it should be quite accurate in regards to less popular games. Anyway ,after AJ review the number of concurrent players on steam jumped by around 10000 and the amount of sells this site showed jumped by around 8000 so it is well within the error bars... Well, PoE´s sales should be 350k units at the moment : http://steamspy.com/app/291650 + GoG + Retail + Rest Maybe they reach 400k by the end of April, but surely not more. Text heavy cRPG´s are much more niche then City managment Games. My prediction after one year : Somewhat between Wasteland 2 and D:OS : 500k - 600k. D:OS is more "mass compatible" because of the goofy and colourfull look. And its 3D. I cant imagine that Pillars will outsale D:OS and i am pretty sure D:OS 2 or Pillars 2 will do alot worse, because the Retro RPG hype will be over soon (It will end with TON). People want their handholding grind Arenas, dating sims and "social awareness", not deep and compliated cRPG´s, just compare the Grimrock 1 and Grimrock 2 Sales : http://steamspy.com/app/207170 (Grimock 1 : 871k Sales) http://steamspy.com/app/251730 (Grimrock 2 :90k Sales) And her the Blackguards 1 and 2 Sales : http://steamspy.com/app/249650 (Blackguards 1 : 304k) http://steamspy.com/app/314830 (Blackguards 2 : 9k) It was fun, but dont expect an glorios comeback of the classical cRPG. Well ,people buy games in regard to their overall value and hype ,there are also opposite examples ,look at the Divinity series ,the games became progressively better and famous so more gamers bought them. Thanks to the illegal torrent scene players can try games before they buy them and it influences their decisions to buy it. The expansions marketing performance and the amount of copies sold after the first sales ,might give us another estimation of how many players loved this game and how big is its' market. -
Angry Joe LOVED Pillars Of Eternity
barakav replied to kozzy's topic in Pillars of Eternity: General Discussion (NO SPOILERS)
IMO you are not fully correct about GTA there are few factors playing here as well. There are probably millions of buyers who are entering and will enter steam for a a few weeks around the release and they might buy more games ,especially from the top selling list. I would have bet that every game as big as that will bump other games sales as well even if buyers will only keep the games to play later on. Many individuals just buy stuff to satisfy an immediate urge ,a while ago I saw a statistic that showed that most buyers on steam don't finish the games they bought and sometimes wait for a long while before they start playing the games at all. It might be more relevant for sales ,but in this case I wouldn't be surprised if some of GTA buyers will buy POE as well. Otherwise it's a free publicity ,even if it only influence future sales... He is only paid for some of his "lets play" videos ,and by youtube policy he has to put a notice on the videos' description. His reviews are always true to his opinion ,but he really just loves RPGs so you will never see him give a bad score to one. -
Angry Joe LOVED Pillars Of Eternity
barakav replied to kozzy's topic in Pillars of Eternity: General Discussion (NO SPOILERS)
It seems like after the jump in steams' top selling list ,the number of concurrent players in steam is rising again as well: https://steamdb.info/app/291650/graphs/ Steamspys' method of gathering info from random samples might have a lag in detecting the number of copies that have been sold. So we will need to wait for a few days to see how many sales this review actually generated for the game. For the last days before the review ,the number of copies sold was stuck at around 300K and reached a plateau: http://steamspy.com/app/291650 This is really interesting from a pure intellectual point of view. How much does a certain youtube reviewer really adds to a games' success? -
Angry Joe LOVED Pillars Of Eternity
barakav replied to kozzy's topic in Pillars of Eternity: General Discussion (NO SPOILERS)
...but 4/5 and 8/10 are the exact same thing. Shhh ,don't tell him about that.... I also hate decimal scores I prefer the Babylonian way of counting using the base of 60 ,that way you can get better precision. -
Its had its run but in my opinion, discussion about the right to discuss the Poem is derailing lots of threads daily and making this a lesser place to be. I'm personally thinking about giving up on obsidian.net and sticking with reddit for PoE stuff, which is a shame because there are some very high quality posts about the game being occluded by all this crap. It is not like I can stop myself from getting into these threads or reading these posts or opening a new one that discuss the same exact crap again , but hey what can I say I love to complain! Surely if you count out this thread it would have been over by now? Maybe we have just one thread where the Poem Warriors can duke it out until the end of time? Note: The irony of censoring this discussion does not escape me, but surely its been discussed to death and doesn't need to be in every damn thread
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Angry Joe LOVED Pillars Of Eternity
barakav replied to kozzy's topic in Pillars of Eternity: General Discussion (NO SPOILERS)
http://tools.garry.tv/steamchart/?show=291650&range=7 Here is a graph of Steams' top selling spots by time ,as you can see the sales took a jump after his review ,I am waiting for Total-Biscuit to publish his opinion on the game ,it might bump the sales as well. -
Angry Joe LOVED Pillars Of Eternity
barakav replied to kozzy's topic in Pillars of Eternity: General Discussion (NO SPOILERS)
I had two main problems with dragon gay 2 : The first one is that the game was way too short and small in scope for an RPG and it felt rushed and the second one is that this was the only "gay friendly" game that made gay fans of the series sue Bioware for having gays look like disgusting perverts. If you wanted to learn about the history and origin of your companions you came to a point in which you were forced have sex with them or you would hurt their feelings and it felt like you couldn't enjoy the role playing experience without suffering sexual harassment...