rjshae

Supposedly the Ukraine has had a mild winter and the snow is starting to melt. Generals Mud and Snow may work against Putin this time.

I'm expecting it'll happen after the Olympics. He's a sports fan and China is his buddy.

I'm reading The Amber Crown. It's a pretty enjoyable stand-alone fantasy romp. The low magic setting is an alternative medieval Europe, mainly in the Baltic region. The Amber Crown: Which Came First Story, Setting or Character?

Controversial Kansas redistricting map is likely headed to court after lawmakers override a veto I see the Big Lie™ about a rigged US election is followed by an actual rigging of an election. The more things change...

The benefit for Putin is the ability to bully and threaten neighboring states to fall in line with his will. Apart from China, the Ukraine is probably the most capable neighboring state. Once it falls, the others won't dare to mount an opposition. They will be assimilated back into the empire.

US household air conditioning use could exceed electric capacity in next decade due to climate change Things are getting real.

The good news is whenever the commanders go to a bar... they order everybody around. 🥁

I was finally able to get scheduled for a booster shot. Looks like the peak flow of early booster adopters is past now.

Law of Unintended Consequences, exhibit A

A diplomatic alternative would be for NATO to guarantee the Ukraine's neutrality, with a violation leading to potential NATO membership. But guaranteeing neutrality can be tricky. (Cf. Belgium, Poland.)

He wants a permanent agreement. As in for all time, regardless of circumstances. Again, what do we get for making it permanent that will make the alliance more secure? Nada. Then why bother?

Again: appeasement. If Russia wants a deal, they can offer something more substantial.

It really wouldn't surprise me if that sort of thing had gone on throughout the cold war. But that wasn't a government policy; it was an individual's extreme bias.

Deploying troops is one thing; building up logistics for a major offensive is a different matter. The concern here is about what they may do; not whether they are moving about the country.

You didn't actually answer my question. Why would NATO agree to essentially a permanent Russian veto of future members? There's no reason to do so, unless Russia agrees to something substantial in return. Using that as a pretext for an invasion is a false flag. Under this purported agreement, Russia can continue to threaten and coerce the Ukraine. They've always demonstrated a willingness to violate agreements. The NATO charter covers, "on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France, on the territory of or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer". Europe extends to the Urals, effectively including the Ukraine.

Nobody has suggested that Russia could not move their troops around their own country. Where do you get that idea? If Putin had never made a land grab of the Crimea, then they may have had more of a case with the West. As it is, agreeing to Putin's terms at this point amounts to appeasement, and we all know how well that works with autocrats. If Putin wants to make a deal to keep the Ukraine out of NATO, what does NATO get in return? It's Putin that is holding Ukraine hostage, not the other way around.

Has that ever mattered?

Is Resident Alien the funniest comedy on TV? It's got my vote.

Historically, Western Europe demonstrated a willingness to abandon smaller nations in order to maintain the peace. (E.g. Austria, Czechoslovakia.) Russia had already demonstrated a willingness to invade its neighbors. *COUGH*Crimea*COUGH* Once they start doing that, where do you draw the line? If they're stopped at the Ukraine then you don't need to spend a ton of money to stop them at Poland. It's not hysterics; it's a powerful lesson from history.

Frankly, it's better for NATO if the Ukraine stays neutral as that reduces the potential frontage of a war. But it would also be a poor play of the cards to say Ukraine can never join NATO, as that would give Russia a free pass to invade. Better then for NATO to make sure the Ukraine is a well-armed buffer state that remains friendly to the West. But Putin probably won't tolerate that, so here we are. If we can delay the conflict a few years, then we can arm up Ukraine and make an invasion more painful.

Cool. They look a lot like magnetic field lines... or constructs for a type III civilization on the Kardashev scale. Hmm.