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Darkpriest

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Posts posted by Darkpriest

  1. 3 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

    This does seem very unfair....and I am surprised its happening in California which is notorious for sometimes being  lax around enforcing correct immigration laws 

    Because Laos is non-muslim Asia, so for Californians they are the same as privilaged Asians. 

     

    I'm 100% sure, that if that would be some african, this would not be happening

    • Thanks 1
  2. 3 hours ago, BruceVC said:

    This may sound like we being pedantic but this is an interesting debate and relevant to all our Democratic elections and how to always try to improve  them and insure the elections are respected and no foreign power interferes ....there are a few very rare example to this but that is a different debate 

    The point you  make  "You can't create discord, you can only exploit it" is an appropriate one and also something I have been involved in years ago in my views and travels to the ME and specifically the various ideological conflicts in that region

    I believe there must be some historical precedent or political dichotomy already existing that allows the type of Russian interference to thrive and have any impact. The bias and mistrust between citizens in any country must be preexisting and then as you quoted you can exploit it

    I like that quote. I am going to start using it, if you dont mind , in  some RL debates I have sometimes  :geek:

    Isn't this a bit naive and biased? 

     

    Russians could by some theories pull it off in 2016, yet conflicted Chinese couldn't do it in 2020, when you have ample evidence of various institutions and individuals falling in line with their narrative? (Hong Kong and NBA, WHO and Covid in China+not recognizing Taiwan, various faculty members at US univeristies, etc.) 

  3. 44 minutes ago, Hurlshot said:

    I never understand the worries about SS or other retirement plans collapsing. We pay money into them. It isn't a free money program. It might need to be adjusted or altered, but it isn't going to collapse as long as there are millions of people still paying into it with every paycheck.

    Not entirely true. You still need to outperform real inflation well enough, and you pension plan might crash and lose net worth depending on where the money is held. 

    There also things like medical bills during retirement, life expectancy etc vs amount available at retirement age etc. 

  4. 6 hours ago, Hurlshot said:

    I really hope it isn't +72 million that believe Trump. I mean, just because they voted for him, doesn't mean they are buying his 'cry fraud' act. *fingers crossed*

    I read something about 70% to 86% of Trump supporters believe that. 

    I do not track that much anymore, as chances of turning the result are near 0, or similar to an undected killer asteroid hitting earth next week. 

    • Like 1
  5. @GromnirI agree, people following various movements, tend to belive into highly improbable things, but for them these are certainties. Same like people of different religions belive their faith is true, even if in the reality none of them might be true.

    Dealing with things in absolutes like 'sure' or 'impossible' can be used to express beliefs and other emotionally loaded messages, but otherwise it is inaccurate in terms of probabilities. 

     

     

  6. 11 minutes ago, Hurlshot said:

    Your analogy might work if it was a few thousand planes that were hijacked.

    I do not disagree. I do not know how big the probability is. 

    Btw, i recommend to read these.

    https://medium.com/@kuangalia/the-ten-commandments-of-logic-d4c9f0e08482

    https://www.relativelyinteresting.com/10-commandments-rational-debate-logical-fallacies-explained/

    https://www.verywellmind.com/cognitive-biases-distort-thinking-2794763

     

    • Haha 1
  7. 6 minutes ago, Elerond said:

    Has any candidate in those elections disputed results? Because they should if there has been clear voter fraud in their are or thousands votes are given to wrong candidate

    I think the most common case is, where there are votes for a POTUS candiate only. Again its late for me and I have better things to do than to track every single story related to US election. 

    I like to conduct thought experiments and think on what ifs scenarios to reset my brain from daily work with numbers, algorithms, processes and people working with them. 

  8. 5 minutes ago, Gromnir said:

    particular sneaky how they did in pennsylvania by allowing trump to improve his margin in philadelphia and pittsburgh but then actual went to red counties and reversed the trend. sure, trump still won almost all o' those red counties, but biden won pennsylvania by improving his losing margin in red counties.

    genius.

    if you cannot see how ridiculous you are being, am not sure what to say. legal standards does not embrace powerball odds. thank goodness. sure as hell not gonna delegitimize or holdup transfer o' power following democratic election 'cause o' such not quite impossible odds.

    HA! Good Fun!

    Ehh. What seems ridiculous now, is not ridiculous when it happens. 

    I'll use a very controversial probability analogy (probability only) 

    I'm fairly sure, that if you were told prior to 9/11 events, as a passanger of a flight, that you are going to get hijacked and the plane will hit and collapse a skyscraper in NY, you would also call this ridiculous. 

    Sure, no one will build scenarios and their plan of action around such an outlandish probability scores, but extremly low probability is still not equal to impossibility. 

    Do you really see no scenario, no matter how improbable, that these counts and EC predictions could be changed to favor Trump? 

     

  9. 4 minutes ago, Elerond said:

    I find it interesting that local, senate and house elections are accepted without law suits, even though votes on them are casted with same ballots that are disputed in presidential race. It is like only parts of ballots are fake. 😉

    I think some people were calling what they deemed unusually odd discrepancies between votes for specific senate and house candidates and the votes for specific candidades. It was some time ago, so can't say what happened to those claims, as I have not been that invested in the result. 

  10. @Gromnir

    Until the process is finished and signed off, everything is possible, however there is a matter o probabilities. Even if the chance is near the ratio you need to win some 1.5 billion USD in a Powerball, it is still possible. 

    We can do the math together, and decide how probable changes to the input data are. 

    We can start with getting an average ratio of fraudulent votes in the total votes in each of the rust belt swing states in the last 3 elections. Lets apply that ratio and see what is potential average outcome. 

    Then we can build various other scenarios, like the ratio of fraudlent and invalid votes in the subtotal of the mail-in votes in the last three elections per state and check from there. 

    Etc. It's a numbers game until the game is called over. 

  11. 1 minute ago, Achilles said:

    The fact that so many discrepancies were caught and reported by the ballot processing centers themselves AS A RESULT OF THEIR AUDITING PROCESS makes the above...silly

    Why? Do you claim it is impossible? 

    Or is it just the potential outcome you'd not be willing to accept? 

    Again, you deal in an environment of heavy 'partisian' division, and people, who are heavily invested emotionally into something, can go great lengths to see the outcome the desire. 

    There is certainly a cognitive bias on each of the sides. 

    One side really strongly believes that there was fraud and the election got stolen, and will exaggerate any irregurality to fit into that view. 

    The other side really likes the outcome and thus believes everything is fine and will dismiss any and all information of irreguralities as insignificant or an attempt to surpress legitimate votes. 

    Looking at the process, none of the extremes is likely, so now it's a matter of probabilities when it comes to the potential scale and its influence on the final outcome. 

    Problem is, that most of the people on a one side of the fence will not be willing to accept the outcome that does not favor their vote. It applies to both sides. 

  12. 8 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

    Achilles is right. If Trump ended up getting Arizona it wont help him. He'd need to overturn Arizona, AND Pennsylvania, OR Michigan and still get North Carolina AND Georgia. And he's not going to win Georgia.

    That is why the court challenges are moot. He'd have to win almost all of them and even then that won't get him to the promised land because he's far enough behind it's unlikely there are enough "illegal" votes to toss. 

    Was there voter fraud? Almost certainly. Was Joe Biden the beneficiary of it? Again almost certainly. But it is near impossible to prove in court that it altered the outcome because it just did not. The candidates down ballot likely have more cause for complaint than Trump in those cases.   

    Yes and no, look at the differnces. 

    Use the prior averages, extrapolate by the factor of the total increase and factor in higher drive to see their own candidate winning as a potential ratio increase of such cases. 

    Then compare it to the totals of differences. 

    In Georgia, you have ca 11k difference? So it's enough if 6k vvotes were misplaced and given to a wrong candidate. 

    PA is what? 50k difderence? 25k misplaced and it turns the tide

     

    Wisconsin is around 20k., So ca 10-11k misplaced. 

     

    Considering the scale, I would not dismiss that from the realms of possibilities. 

    Is it likely? That I would not be able to say, but I can certainly say that it is not impossible

     

    I wonder on another thing though, what would happen, if Trump would actually win after the recounts? 

    Is this even something acceptable to people, who now stand so sternly behind Biden's win, even though the election is highly contested and the process requires to have all the lawsuits and disputes investigated and resolved?

  13. On one hand I'm happy with news around COVID vaccine, on the other hand, this might lead to ugly politics using the vaccine as a trump card in the geopol. 

     

    Anyway, markets went bonkers wild with these algo triggers

  14. This will be a year that built various groups of zealots, from BLM, Antifa etc, to Trump fanatics. 

    Another example of people looking at patterns and confirming their bias? 

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/it-defies-logic-scientist-finds-telltale-signs-election-fraud-after-analyzing-mail-ballot

     

    I wonder if dems and reps will each split into additional two factions, of woke communists with AOC, Warren and Bernie leads, and Trumps nationalists, 'Murika first

  15. 9 hours ago, Hurlshot said:

    Why not? 

    You said it's important. 

    Usually the person putting a thesis forward needs to prove it. 

    I do not see why it would be important. 

     

    I do see this however 

    A person with miniscule support during dems primaries, will be de facto a prssident, when they will pull Biden from the white house in mid 2021, due to "health conditions and being unable to work in full capacity" 

  16. Nah, democrats will be busy with trying to appease all the raging mobs, which they first pushed for. Now there will be no Trump to "rally against". What will media do? What will happen, once more business will offshore more work, funnilly enough, the next on the cutting stand are banking, journalism and tech jobs. Some will be cut, others automated or offshored. 

     

  17. 2 minutes ago, Malcador said:

    "The massive turn out alone is a red flag."

    Why ?

    How would I know? I'm just showing the others sides point of view. Compare to the rest of increases? 

    I'm not that invested i  US presidency. The only hope I would have is to stop the cancel culture and declare social media public utilities as once phone was declared in the past, and stop censorship on whats considered platforms, who also live off your perosnal data. 

    • Like 1
  18. 13 minutes ago, Maedhros said:

    So you haven't seen any evidence? You said it was "clearly a fraud" and that the American people had been robbed - how do you know?

    You can't now clealry as it is still a process and the items were not investigated, however some people post red Flags and to dismiss them outright seems a bit naive. One red flag - a blip, a couple - needs fixing or someone stupid running the process but in any way should be investigate for the potential error, a lot of - very suspicious and possibly malicious

     

    This are some of the red flags raised by the other side of the race, which i guess lead to @Skarpen's strong opinion

     

    The massive turn out alone is a red flag.

    But as for doing better…

    The late night spikes that were enough to close all the Trump leads are a red flag.

    The statistically impossible breakdown of the ratios of these vote dumps is a red flag.

    The ratios of these dumps being far better than the percentages in the bluest of blue cities, even though the historical data does not match, red flag.

    The ratios of these vote dumps favoring Biden more in these few battlegrounds than the ratio for the rest of the country (even the bluest of the blue) red flag.

    Biden outperforming Obama among these few urban vote dumps, even though Trump picked up points in every demographic group in the rest of the country, red flag.

    The poll observers being removed. Red flag.

    The counters cheering as GOP observers are removed, red flag.

    The fact that the dem observers outnumber the GOP observers 3 to 1, red flag (and basis of the first lawsuit filed)

    The electioneering at the polls (on video), red flag.

    The willful violation of the court order requiring the separation of ballots by type, red flag.

    USPS whistleblower reporting to the Inspector General that today they were ordered to backdate ballots to yesterday, red flag.

    The video of 2 AM deliveries of what appear to be boxes of ballots with no chain of custody or other observers right before the late night miracle spikes, red flag.

    Any of those things would be enough to trigger an audit in the normal world. This many flags and I’d be giggling in anticipation of catching some thieves.

    And it isn’t that I have to do better. I’m just an gen pop observer who happens to be a retired auditor with a finely tuned bull**** detector. This is going to the courts.

    • Like 1
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