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Everything posted by Zoraptor
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Taliban add 2 (3) new provincial capitals to its recent captures. The most recent and significant capture- Faizabad- isn't mentioned in that article; it was absolute core Northern Alliance territory previous and never came within 100+ km of being captured in the war of 1996-2001. Mazar-e-Sharif is also under siege, if that falls all the previous long term NA territory is gone. That leaves the Pakistan border as the one least (overtly) controlled by the Taliban. You would have thought the US would have had a plan to get the Uzbeks/ Tajiks to prop up their minorities via the NA as the Russians had last time, the only conclusion to be drawn is that this time that isn't what the Russians (or Chinese) want and the Uzjiks have made the calculation that US influence is gone permanently and unlike the Russians they can be ignored. The US envoy is now desperately trying to get the Taliban to hold off capturing the whole country until after the US formally withdraws, hard to see them lasting that long though with every supply line either cut or under threat.
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Ten is far too many. The 5 (?) top tier leagues in Europe- Germany, Italy, France, England, Spain- are clearly miles better, but the secondary level not so much since they tend to have super clubs that massively skew perspective. The MLS sides might struggle to beat Celtic/ Rangers for example, or Ajax/ PSV, or Benfica/ Porto- but then so do the other teams already in those domestic leagues. (to be honest, the whole european model is kind of broken in that respect and the US one typically results in a far 'flatter' comp, and I say that as someone who dislikes franchise type set ups on principle. The average MLS team would probably perform fine against the average tier 2 Euro domestic team though, the only one I'm sure is better is the Dutch one though that's based on a couple of years ago when we had both MLS and a bunch of little e european leagues on free to air)
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Yeah I know, I just can't resist taking comparisons to their logical conclusion. And unfortunately the logical conclusion from a comparison between covid vaccines and the world's anti doping approach is that you can justify testing and disclosure (etc) using that example, but, you'd also end up allowing a bunch of exceptions to the practical results/ effects of that testing and disclosure based on the same comparison. Why indeed. I'm not entirely sure if I were appointed God that I wouldn't make vaccines compulsory, but then I could just vaccinate everyone with a wave of my finger. From a practical political standpoint it almost certainly isn't worth the effort it would take to enforce in the vast majority of situations because vaccine uptake is already high enough.
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I can't see anti doping as being a great parallel for making vaccines compulsory- since there are so many exceptions to the anti doping rules granted. More than a third of elite cyclists have through dedication and hard work overcome the horrendous handicap of asthma, purely coincidentally, by having to be allowed to take performance enhancing salbutamol. The obvious comparison is that if you have 33% of cyclists allowed to use salbutamol due to exceptions you end up with... 33% of people allowed not to vaccinate due to exceptions. Which is actually worse than in many countries. (Personally, I'd sack every last border worker here that refuses a vaccine. It's their choice but it's also their consequence; and they don't have the right to potentially kill several thousand of their fellow citizens)
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The 'funny' thing about the ISIS blitzkrieg were the Toyotas (well, Ford in the most famous case) that were advertising random plumbers and the like because they never got the sign writing removed when the CIA shipped them off to help the 'moderate opposition' in Syria- though not quite as funny as the US government having the balls to ask Toyota how ISIS were getting them when Timber Sycamore existed.
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The bad ref/ judging issue has got a lot better since Seoul with its ludicrous boxing tournament. That was too much even for Samaranch era IOC. Glorious New Zealand 12 13th on the medal table (thanks Brazil, now we'll get three years of bad luck). Or 4th on the proper, per capita, measurement (and as some wag put it, the rest of the top of that table is the start of a Beach Boys song). For the next three years I will be able to live vicariously on the achievements of others, which is certainly the most low effort way to live. Funniest result has to be Non Official Russia outperforming Official Russia's last 4 Olympics. Guess the moral of the story is to get caught BALCOing more often.
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That isn't going to be changed. The Russians push it because of multiple reasons including their olympic 'ban', but also for more...objectively reasonable ones too such as Sharapova getting banned for taking a prescribed medicine in meldonium that has no confirmed performance benefit- while medical exemptions were and are handed out continually for others. Indeed, not only have a disproportionate number of (western) elite athletes overcome ADHD to achieve greatness, coincidentally requiring that they take ritalin, but many have also overcome asthma, coincidentally requiring that they take an otherwise banned drug (salbutamol) to open their airways and improve their breathing.
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Probably more likely to not get paid because their commander has pocketed their wages. That was the situation in Iraq when their army collapsed at Mosul for example, most of the nominal troops had literally deserted and a whole division existed only on paper as a way for its commander to embezzle funds. There are also a couple of major differences between the ~2000 situation and 2021 in Afghanistan which are having a big impact in how things are playing out. Prior to the western intervention while there may have been a lot of anti Taliban lip service in the west their role as clients of pro western interests (Pakistan, Saudi) and perhaps even more importantly an anti Russian/ Iranian bulwark meant there was no practical support for anti Taliban forces from the west, but plenty from Russia/ Iran and the neighbouring 'stans. Hence the Northern Alliance's main strength and holdings were in the north, along the border with Tajikistan, and there was an open insurgency against the Talibs in the west and around Herat supported by Iran. The Taliban now are getting support from their traditional Pakistani backers for traditional Pakistani reasons (and, let's be frank, as geopolitical utu for the US intervention taking out their pet project) and their traditional enemies in Russia and Iran because the Afghan government is a western puppet. Hence you have areas that were held continuously by the NA (or up to just before Sept 2001) around Mazar-e-Sharif, Kunduz, Faisabad already taken and only the cities barely holding out, for the moment. There's also been somewhat of a shift away from ethnicity- the Northern Alliance was largely Tajik (vs mostly Pashtu Taliban) and held the NE of the country pretty solidly on that basis, but as above almost all the territory it held is now held by the Taliban, excepting the cities. At the moment the division seems to be almost completely along rural/ urban (conservative/ less conservative) lines instead, with cities being pretty strongly pro government and rural areas almost completely pro Talib.
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Might upset an agenda based narrative, but the best that was expected of her here was maybe a bronze. She was well behind at least two other lifters in terms of form and PB. And as I mentioned elsewhere, there was never any question of her transitioning just to get an advantage which is the usual knee jerk accusation. I do hope the olympics now do a proper review of their guidelines instead of ad hocing everything. Compare the situations of Hubbard and Semenya and it makes the organisation look extraordinarily stupid.
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In what can only be called an utterly surprising move* Pfizer and Moderna have jacked up their vaccine prices by $5 a shot in their latest EU contract. Good to see the benefits of mass production and competition resulting in lower prices, as always. That increase alone is more than the total cost of an AZ dose. Still the $40bn+ windfall for Pfizer and Moderna from the EU alone will do wonders for their share price. Oh, and Sky News Australia has got themselves a week ban from Youtube due to covid misinformation. A Murdoch media outlet spreading misinformation, big pharma jacking up prices in a crisis and politicians helping big pharma jack up prices by nobbling the opposition and passing the cost onto their citizens; not exactly the most unpredictable news ever. *also really surprising is that Pfizer claims that 2 doses and both sufficient for long term protection and that an additional booster is required, depending entirely on whether they're talking to potential or existing customers.
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Definitely time for the dead wood to be cut. All the Russian modules should be removed and then we'll see whose bits of the ISS last longest.
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We know how effective they are since there have been independent studies of them (eg Chile). They're the least effective class but the best vaccine during a pandemic is the one that's available, and reducing hospital admissions by 85% is more than worthwhile. They're also an order of magnitude cheaper than the mRNA vaccines. Should also be said that 'effectiveness' depends a lot on metrics. The reason the advice on masks has changed again in the US is because the gold standards likely aren't stopping enough vaccinated people becoming infectious, so from that perspective they aren't effective either.
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I've done a related subject to Masters level and done some epidemiology and modelling, but I'm not a virologist. The general rule is that pathogens get less deadly but more infectious as time goes on. It's very much a general rule though. I'd be reticent about making any predictions about how long or if this coronavirus will go into the background like the common cold coronaviruses- and it also has to be pointed out that despite the general rule it appears that delta is both more infectious and is worse/ deadlier.
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Military Thread: Humanity Hanging from a Cross of Iron
Zoraptor replied to Guard Dog's topic in Way Off-Topic
At this point for some reason I feel compelled to mention the AIM-54 Phoenix. -
Australia, rock bottom amongst OECD countries? Bloody Ockers, always trying to steal New Zealand's thunder. We may be slightly ahead in terms of full vaccinations doses thanks to going all Pfizer, but Aus is ahead in total doses/ capita. Kind of sad seeing Sydney's troubles, even if Gladys is so extremely unlikeable that you kind of want something mildly unpleasant to happen to her on principle. Must be wishing they'd locked down when the limo driver got infected despite the embarrassment that would have had, same as Fiji must wish they'd done it despite it potentially causing them problems. I've said it before, but I do have some sympathy for Scovid over the vaccine situation. No way to predict that the hatchet job on Astra Zeneca would be so effective, and the low vaccination rate can also be blamed on ATAGI contributing to the AZ FUD- which looks potentially very short sighted now, and they're meant to be actual experts rather than politicians. Them basing all their thinking on Australia always being covid free was naive. Our back up plan is the 4 million J&J doses we have, and we specifically haven't had our advisory board telling people those should only be given to over 60s for the last 8 months unlike ATAGI.
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I got the impression that the overwhelming reaction to Waterworld at the time was one of indifference rather than hate- a decent amount of schadenfreude from its cost overruns, but even that was mostly passive "they spent that amount of money, on that?" type stuff rather than active dislike. (Maybe I'm biased since I'm sure I've seen it on TV, but can barely remember a single thing about it including whether I liked it or not. Guess it must have been at least OK if I watched it to the end though)
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The short answer is that she has lower than the permitted level of testosterone as defined by weightlifting's governing body, passed the qualification mark (by a fair margin) and therefore had to be picked. If she hadn't been she could have sued our Olympic Committee over it and would have been there anyway, just with even more aggro. The idea that especially in weightlifting you don't get permanent benefit from having male levels of testosterone for 30 years is completely ludicrous, but ultimately any blame for decisions made around that lies with the sport's international administration. And it should also be said that despite all that the expectation is maybe a bronze medal for Laurel Hubbard, not gold or silver, and there's absolutely no chance that she went transgender just to go to the Olympics.
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John de Lancie as Q is a great example of an actor spinning gold out of what should be a stupid idea. Same for Ian McDiarmid in the SW prequels playing Palpatine perfectly pantomime. You could get more or less the same stuff happening without the modern day shoehorning though, and it would likely be better with a more well thought out, organic and internally consistent explanation. I have to admit that I've blotted out most of Picard especially the final episodes (and despite not hating the lead episodes), but things like the hermit refugee Romulans turning up at a random planet with more ships than they ever seemed to have in any other ST would work a lot better if they weren't impoverished refugee hermits.
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They could have done something worthwhile with both Discovery and Picard, even just making the plot coherent would have done a lot. 90% of the problems aren't with what happens, per se, they're with how it happens and the philosophy of design by bullet point where they know what they want to happen and who their characters are in a vague way describable in a short sentence, but have no way to link them together or have them interact that makes any sense. ie the focus is on making things 'cool' and relevant, or at least what the writers think is cool and relevant. The trouble is of course that you can't make them better without removing the showrunners and writers that think their disorganised fanfic level dreck is modern Shakespeare. The 'reapers' from Picard for example weren't inherently more stupid than the Prophets from DS9, and while the Bajoran religious stuff was the part of DS9 that always had me personally rolling my eyes plenty of people seem to like it, because it was handled so much better. It seems that most modern writers fundamentally don't want to get past the present day. I think the case in point comes most from a 'behind the scenes' Watchmen (TV) vignette where one of the writers/ producers listed all the differences between its world and the modern world, which are... pretty significant. He then says a little later that they absolutely deliberately wrote their alt history program with 'superheroes' so that every problem that exists in this world also "had to exist" (direct quote) in the one where a giant squid splattered NYC, a psychopathic blue nudist disintegrated the viet minh then lived on Mars, and the internet doesn't exist. The odd thing is that it isn't like Star Trek- or Doctor Who as another example- didn't deal with real world/ 'progressive' issues before, and that they did is one reason why the series were loved. The modern approach seems to be to hit the audience repeatedly in the face with very badly abstracted modern issues as a raison d'ĂȘtre for the whole thing. It would be a lot more effective if the moral message was wrapped in something, well, good on its own merits. (Case in point for that from TNG's decline: Force of Nature. Warp destroying the galaxy's fabric as analogy to climate change etc, but the episode is so bad that you end up rolling your eyes at the whole thing, and any moral message from the analogy is lost)
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If it's actual brain damage that's true, and covid definitely causes blood clots (and hence strokes) in some cases. It's the degree of permanent damage that is the question. Something that effects concentration like persistent headaches, insomnia or even stress caused by other long covid symptoms all can cause lower IQ results without having brain damage as the root cause. In the end, the only thing that an IQ test really measures is the ability to take an IQ test, after all. They didn't do any research on the underlying reasons for the drop beyond it being covid related. If they want to 'prove' that it's permanent they'd need to show neurological damage, or effects on IQ in the longer term rather than ~6 months.
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That depends if it's permanent. Something like a concussion can drop apparent/ tested IQ as well, but it will usually return to previous levels after some healing time. Same thing with a lot of the 'long covid' type symptoms/ side effects such as myocarditis; they can do long term or permanent damage, but generally they will return to baseline after some time. Having said that, you don't need many people to have permanent organ damage before it gets to be a big problem, and not just for those effected.
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Soya plants are great- easy to grow, quick growing, versatlile, don't need much water, not much in the way of pests, nitrogen fixing- the problems are all with industrial farming since you end up with lots of soy specific pests, lots of topsoil loss as well as lots of forest clearance etc. GMO soy is pretty crap too. Yeah, it won't turn the frogs gay or anything, but all glyphosate resistance does is encourage significantly more use of herbicide- why Monsanto, makers of Roundup, developed it in the first place, duh- and more monoculture. So you end up with massive use of pesticide and massive use of herbicide in most commercial soy growing projects often with steady soil degradation despite soy being a legume.