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Zoraptor

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Everything posted by Zoraptor

  1. You don't, but the idea was to drive up costs for Russian natural gas until imported US gas got competitive. Which was never going to actually happen, and that was obvious to everyone except... I'm not actually sure it wasn't obvious to US politicians and they just did it to get money out of deluded lobbyists. It is of course possible to import US gas, you just need a lot of ships and a couple of massive terminals, neither of which exist and couldn't for years, and both of which would cost more than Nord Stream 2. I most certainly have. Sadly at the moment a comparison to Jesus and the Second Coming is pretty apt, much as with fusion power. Both are The Future™, and both have been The Future™ for multiple decades while being a few years away from mass adoption. (To put it in perspective I can still remember a lecture 20ish years ago in chemistry materials about some revolutionary lattice product- the hydrogen atoms would fit nicely into the lattice, and if you applied electricity the lattice would deform and expel them- that would make hydrogen practical as it got both more density than liquid hydrogen/ didn't require super cold or super high pressure, and solved the problem with it tending to leach out. It is mentioned for hydrogen storage now, but still only as a potential rather than practical one)
  2. And without Nordstream they're in the far better situation of being at the mercy of... Russia and Ukraine. They're still going to buy Russian gas, anything else is a pipe dream. The shale gas the US desperately wants Europe to get hooked on is far too expensive and there isn't any infrastructure for it. It isn't even financially competitive in the current environment where Ukraine gets transit fees and causes inflated prices by filching some off the top nor in the previous one where the US was also sanctioning allied countries' companies to try and make it so.
  3. Amazing. Every time I think my opinion of Mike Pompeo couldn't get any lower he finds a way to confound expectations. It was already quite an achievement being the worst person in an administration that included Donald Trump. A Castro style assassination plot attempt- or even kidnapping- on Assange would be hilarious for multiple reasons, if the whole idea wasn't so indicatively counterproductive and stupid.
  4. Blackwater --> Xe --> Academi. Which I believe still exists, though not independently any more. Can't help but think that the main reason for picking Wagner is to maximally annoy the French rather than for any practical benefit. Ironically, it's illegal for Russian citizens to work as mercenaries at least technically, which is one of the reasons Moscow always has to deny having any involvement with them despite there being obvious links. That, and their alleged tendency to beat people they think are stealing from them to death with sledgehammers while being stupid enough to film themselves doing it.
  5. The funny thing is that Xiaomi probably does have residual censorship software on it, since it is a requirement for them being sold in China. But that's to prevent Chinese people doing things like compare Xi to a chubby fictional ursine or sharing pictures of tank man, not to delete a Lithuanian's A A Milne collection and it's pretty much certain that they simply cannot do that outside of China. They've got plenty of utterly counterproductive wumao shouty men to complain about the Winnie the Pooh comparisons in the western internet instead. That's both low practical effect and extremely low exposure compared to all the backdoors US companies have in them. You can barely buy a chip without a built in NSA backdoor now- eg IME/ PSP for Intel/ AMD- nor networking gear, and pretty much the sole reason for Windows 11 existing is to force default adoption of the thoroughly compromised TPM in the name of 'security'. OK, that last one is also largely to give MS the ability to vet everything on your computer which has a commercial purpose too, but you can readily guess who will be piggybacking that capability and it won't be PLA Unit 61398. Until they inevitably hack either the NSA (as the Russians did, and for which you can thank most of the spate of ransomware attacks that use filched NSA tools) or the backdoors directly, at least, and assuming they haven't already.
  6. Do you ever bother reading the stuff you link Bruce? ie the reason for the lack of security guarantees is... US sanctions on Huawei. Perfect circular argument, we have to ban Huawei because we're banning selling them the equipment that would allow us to buy from them. FTR, no security backdoors in Huawei have ever actually been identified, it's entirely assertion that they exist. Cisco... not so much. Indeed, as per above the reason for Huawei being banned is the lack of NSA backdoors being present, not the proven presence of Chinese ones. (Are there Chinese backdoors? Maybe, maybe even probably- but there definitely are backdoors in the alternatives)
  7. There's definitely a weird obsession with takeaways here. Think in most places the 100k in cash in the car would make the headlines rather than the KFC. Personally I refuse to eat KFC and haven't for 20 years.
  8. That which is asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence Bruce. If you think that the Russians killed lots of civilians it's up to you to prove it, and anecdote != data. The US did 'bomb Fallujah to the ground'. OK, they mostly used artillery to do it rather than aircraft, but so what. That was the whole point of telling civilians to leave and declaring it a closed military zone. Hardly matters whether you use precision weapons targeted solely at militants if the net effect is killing as many civilians as an indiscriminate attack. About 1% of Fallujah's civilian population was killed in roughly 3 months. About 1% of Aleppo's civilian population died too, over 5 years. To put it in perspective, when the decidedly imprecise Iraqi army retook Fallujah from ISIS in 2016 the estimate of civilian deaths is... ~0.05% of its population, or one twentieth the number the US caused. And that army was meant to be a rabble of whacky shia dervishes looking for some sunni babies to turf out of incubators and impale on their helmets while flagellating themselves and chanting Ya Ali. Same thing for Aleppo, the total number of civilian casualties after the Russian intervention is way way lower than you'd suspect from the coverage, about half the 5 year average for the full battle. Conversely, the casualties in Mosul and Raqqa (proportionately, since it's also way smaller than the other two) are way way higher than you'd think from the reporting. The total number of civilian deaths for 2016 in Aleppo- including the nearly 1000 killed by the rebels using decidedly non high tech/ aerial mortars, snipers and rockets- is 'only' ~3000. The number killed in Mosul by coalition airstrikes alone is just under 6000 per Amnesty International, and as with Fallujah (and Aleppo for that matter) an awful lot more were killed by bog standard artillery than airstrikes. The independently assessed upper limit estimate of civilian casualties caused by Russia in 4+ years is ~6000, per Airwars.
  9. There are definitely some anti US sanctions. Russia has some, China has quite a lot and IIRC Iran still has an open warrant for Scott Lustig, who shot down IranAir655. Nowhere near as publicised though, and not as effective either. It's a typical Bruce argument anyway, since the Coalition killed at least four times as many civilians 'accidentally' in Mosul than Russia killed 'deliberately' in Aleppo, at around the same time, and that had basically no press coverage, let alone political opprobrium or sanctions. Indeed, the coalition likely killed more civilians in Raqqa too than Russia did in Aleppo, and it is a fifth the size.
  10. Eh, there are plenty of reasons for that. Not least that there's been a very well publicised apology this time which you don't usually get and which makes it very difficult to use the usual deflection strategies, though it didn't stop them trying. The typical cycle is to claim it was absolutely a correct strike, followed a few days to a week later by saying it was a 100% correct strike but is now under investigation because the locals insist an innocent target was hit but everyone should be patient, maybe followed months later by some sort of admission that maybe it wasn't quite as correct as had been made out, buried as half an column inch on p57 of the NYT if carried at all. And in between the first and last step you have a horde of people saying how it had to be this or that because a ginsu was used so any explosion had to be secondary, then that prejudgements are being made and you need to be patient, and the like. Usually, the coverage just goes away and literally no consequences are faced, instead of literally no consequences apart from having to make an apology on camera that goes on CNN/ BBC et alia. When the subject of bad US drone strikes comes up this one will be the poster child for years to come, precisely because they had to very publicly admit this one at least was wrong- when many suspect that it's the tip of the iceberg. They clearly knew they'd hit the wrong target pretty early*, but continued saying it was a righteous strike because they'd previously got away with obfuscating it until everyone forgot and hoped it would work this time. This time though the whole thing was tied into a very unpopular and chaotic withdrawal in which hitting an aid worker instead of an ISIS guy was... all too emblematic, and there was ample motivation to actually report on the matter instead of letting it go. *there's some mitigation for the initial mistake because there actually was an attack involving a white Toyota (sedan) the same day and the aid worker did drive a white Toyota as well (albeit station wagon/ estate, not sedan). While it did not involve a suicide bomber but a makeshift rail of grads fired at the airport (missing by a couple of kilometres; who would have thought firing a notoriously inaccurate rocket from a sedan boot wouldn't work well? Not ISIS, apparently. Biggest achievement was setting the car on fire) it seems very likely that the basic intelligence was correct, but they misidentified the vehicle. Even if they lacked that newfangled tech known as 'the internet' (maybe they still called it darpanet and got confused?) where the correct id of the target was made within minutes multiple flags should have been raised when a similar vehicle did carry out an attack very soon after.
  11. Yeah, looks like Skarpen may need to brush up on some remedial stats. FTR, just reverse those Irish stats and it becomes obvious how silly that argument is- 44% of admissions are unvaccinated. You'd Expect 10% unvaccinated --> 10% hospitalisations if the vaccine had no effect; as it stands it's the small matter of 4.4x that. In reality vaccines don't stop the virus wholesale, but they do reduce symptoms and as a consequence transmission- fewer symptoms such as coughing, and the virus is cleared a lot quicker so you're also a lot less likely to spread it.
  12. Vaccines do prevent getting corona, they just don't stop it in all people*. They also do prevent the spreading of the virus in most people, and greatly reduce it in almost everyone since there's significant symptom reduction (which includes main vectors like, well, coughing or sneezing). The flu vaccine also doesn't stop people getting flu and doesn't stop spreading that virus either, and it's in every single metric worse than even the worst approved coronavirus vaccine; it's efficiency varies year to year but is typically in the 45% range. No vaccine works with 100% efficiency, even the ones people think as being 100% effective are only that because enough people get vaccinated. There is also statistically far too much improvement in mortality rates when vaccinated for it not to be preventing deaths. *It's notoriously difficult to vaccinate effectively for respiratory diseases. Most 'lining' tissues such as found in the throat and lungs use a different antibody (IgA) from the 'general' body (IgG), and vaccines tend to not stimulate IgA as effectively, and not for as long as they do IgG. So you can get high viral loads in the upper respiratory tract even if vaccinated because there isn't much covid specific IgA there at the start of infection. But, the immune system is still primed, and you do get rapid production of specific IgA when stimulated so you seldom get infection reaching the lungs (--> pneumonia) nor moving into other organs (--> myocarditis, 'long covid' etc) as you'd get if not vaccinated and relying on the generalised immune response (--> inflammation, fevers; correspondingly, if you get infected when vaccinated it will probably be asymptomatic with no fever or inflammation). That's why you can still get infected and be infectious after a vaccine, but also why the symptoms are much reduced and you're a lot less likely to infect others. [I'm pretty sure that that's also why there's so much interest in aerosolising vaccines for covid, as that directly targets the relevant cells rather than being injected intermuscularly]
  13. How do you get worse than a submarine that could (allegedly) be heard from the surface without using sonar? Did they buy F-111s airframes but not the engines. (New Zealand's worst purchase is probably the HMNZS Charles Upham, which at least didn't cost us too much since it got sold back to civilian use after 5 years of doing nothing but refits. Mostly a bad purchase because the real Charles Upham was a monumental badass and the ship was never fit for purpose, and had very little purpose for us)
  14. So not only did canon Jax pick Caja instead of Nasty, but he also got her up the duff and is now a deadbeat dad? #notmyJax Still, guess the apple didn't fall too far from the tree...
  15. Australian military procurement is lousy-see the aforementioned Collins class subs for a pertinent example- but countries in general seem to tolerate an awful lot of stuff from military procurement that they'd never accept for civil matters. And speaking of things that make countries highly popular: New Zealand cancels cricket tour of Pakistan half an hour before play starts in the first match. Not really much choice when the government spooks tell you to due to an imminent terrorist threat, but Pakistan is a country that loves cricket so much that their elected PM is also their best ever cricketer. We could hardly have made ourselves less popular if we'd turned up in 'I ♥ Modi' shirts and changed our National Anthem to 'Gods Defend Bharat'.
  16. Well, that's unexpectedly good news, even if the trailer is 90% random dance party for some reason. Some may say that Elex is the most jank of eurojank games, but Outcast was in a class of its own. And it had the best soundtrack of all time.
  17. I know most of the anglo press is doing VinceMcMahonMeetsStaceyKeibler.gif over the deal but really... It's managed to annoy the french (and the EU) pretty badly and at least partly completely pointlessly. Which would usually be a bit of a bonus for me at least but in this case is counter productive at best if your goal is to contain China*. It's difficult not to have some sympathy for the french, as they seem to be expected to bend their arms deals to US sensibilities disproportionately- such as the cancellation of the Mistral sales to Russia- and the timing either showed ignorance or was deliberately obnoxious, made a few hours before the EU announced its Pacific policy. Along with the mess made in Afghanistan the Biden reset in relationships seems a lot more like a continuance of Trump's policy, just with more completely empty expressions of fraternité and kamaraderie tacked on for effect and a few less overt policy stupidities like trying to force Europe to buy US natural gas. It's also somewhat annoyed Canada and the fourth part of the quad, India, because the US doesn't want to share tech with them. But most importantly, Aukus <<< ANZUS. ANZUS sounds cool, Aukus sounds like great value Tolkien. *and is a great illustration of the fundamental problems with modern US foreign policy. Pointless and counterproductive stuff done so you can get more money for your arms industry. And in the end this is a miniscule step towards containment given that the three countries involved are all allies already. If they really want to contain China they have to tackle the elephant in the room which is rapprochement with Russia. There is no effective containment of China without Russia. Still, at least it's more effective than the old tactic previously used on Japan; trying to get China to appreciate its currency into a permanent recession which for some reason the Chinese declined to do.
  18. Australia is going to build new nuclear submarines after an agreement with the US and UK on tech transfer. Hopefully they'll at least be as meme worthy as their previous effort, the Collins class. Not quite the massive leap that the media is making it out to be either, since it shows that the attempts to turn 5eyes into a military alliance instead of just an intelligence sharing one have failed. Ironically, while it would have been a very long shot to get NZ into any alliance post Rainbow Warrior anyway the reason Canada isn't there is almost certainly because the US would have to give Canada the same nuke sub tech, and they don't want to. Best moment: Joe Biden completely forgetting Scott Morrison's name and having to refer to Boris and '... ... that guy from downunder... the.. .. Prime Minister'.
  19. Don't think an interview citation or whatever is needed, it's pretty obvious from just playing the game that a lot of 'problems' were being pointed out. It isn't that big of a step from not liking The Force/ Jedi Moralism to not liking SW considering how big a facet it is in it; that's why a lot of people think disliking that aspect has to mean disliking the whole thing. A large part of the Jedi criticism in K2 comes directly from how they were set up in K1 too, and that set up was decidedly ambivalent already as to the validity of their Moral Stance. That ambivalence was central to the plot since they needed a 'good' reason for good Revan to have behaved as she did and a 'bad' reason for bad Revan to behave as she did, so you had to be able to paint the Jedi as good or bad/ right or wrong. That was also, fortunately and accidentally, a good set up for the Avellone approach to deconstructing tropes. (bit of an aside, but I don't think Avellone had too much problem with the Sith's take on the Force, just with them typically being Chaotic Stupid)
  20. Avellone certainly didn't hate SW, and ended up doing a lot of stuff in that universe apart from K2 to prove it. Planetscape: Tournament did much the same deconstruction of the general RPG staples as K2 did for SW, and he certainly didn't hate RPGs either. You're far more likely to get good big C Criticism of something someone likes than something they hate. Probably fair to say that Avellone has some significant dislike of the moral system of the Jedi though, as would most people if they thought about them for a few seconds
  21. Now looking like the intelligence was actually complete and utter garbage. [alt link summary for anyone hitting the NYT's paywall] If true not only did they not hit a suicide bomber, but they managed to hit someone they'd previously worked extensively with themselves. And it's quite difficult to see how it isn't true. The great shame about these things- in addition to the completely innocent victims getting blown to chunks, of course- is that all most people will remember is Biden striking back at ISIS, not that he struck back at someone completely innocent. If the latter part made more headway there'd be a lot less strike first think later going on in the first place because there would be actual consequences for mistakes.
  22. Epic has (temporarily at least, not like there won't be an appeal) won their lawsuit vs Apple. Which is kind of like Pol Pot punching Hitler in the balls, but you kind of have to support that on principle no matter who is doing the whacking.
  23. Paradox owns the Tyranny IP.
  24. Bunch of 2000 era Activision Star Trek games released. Includes Elite Force, which is the only thing about Voyager I genuinely liked.
  25. Vince McMahon has been a case study in "no, it's the kids that are wrong!" for at least the last decade. The most telling factor is how much happier literally everyone seems when they're, uh, performing elsewhere in the sports entertainment universe shall we say. Despite being over managed you can hardly say that it's well run either and not just because they insist on a load of stupid branding catchphrases. Be interesting to see if WWE is really up for sale. At some point the balance between keeping a very vanilla product line to not offend potential buyers and losing market share will shift.
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