Jump to content

Zoraptor

Members
  • Posts

    3488
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    20

Everything posted by Zoraptor

  1. Interesting angle. How would this explain the failure of revolts in several places? Does it correlate with the spread of such comms? I've no idea. If so, get a paper out about it, double quick. Depends what you mean by 'failure' of revolt. Generally where there is a 'failure' (and in many cases I suspect it is more like a delay rather than an outright failure) there is some sort of other circumstance effecting things- like the presence of very strongly motivated pro-government people in Iran to balance the anti-government ones, or the general disdain for Israel in Lebanon or Syria that tends to stabilise what should theoretically be fairly unpopular governments, or that there is a potential for just throwing enormous amounts of cash at problems if you're Saudi/ Kuwaiti/ Qatari. The main reason I'd say that the mass communication angle is important is that it evens out one of the really big advantages a repressive regime has traditionally had. If you have someone on a street corner shouting "down with the tyrants" it's a matter of simplicity to bundle them into a car. If someone says the same thing on the internet it is theoretically available to everyone, it's far more difficult to censor and far more difficult to bundle the offenders off to the arabic equivalent of Room 101. Basically it comes down to three factors: it's easier to disseminate the information, it's more difficult to repress the information and- in military terms- it gives protesters an ability to communicate that rivals the ability of police or military in terms of immediacy, even if it is not as robust. So whereas you might be dealing with a few scattered and easy to handle groups previously it is now far easier for those groups to cooperate/ amalgamate and organise.
  2. I'm originally from Christchurch and lived there until I was twenty. I haven't heard of anyone I know who is missing, at least.
  3. Part of their argument was that Iraq would act as an example- the first domino, if you will- and all the middle east would follow its shining example to freedom, pluralism and democracy, and that that would make further direct intervention unnecessary. It is at least arguable (though not something that I agree with, as I've said before I tend to think that the democratisation of mass communication is the most important factor) that a major factor in the unrest is Arabs looking at Iraq and asking "if they can have elections, why can't we?"
  4. I hate to say it, but I don't see much hope for Iran, the government is too determined and brutal. May be if there's dissension in the ruling class. There is dissension in the ruling class*. The big thing Iran has going for it (governmental stability wise) is that its government is as widely liked by portions of its population as much as it is disliked by other parts. The loyalty Mubarak and Ben Ali had was almost entirely from those that were paid to be loyal, but there's still a very large segment of Iran's population- almost entirely ignored by the west- for which the Islamic Revolution is still a living, breathing entity and Ahmedinajad/ Khamenei etc are popular embodiments of that. In theory Gaddafi should have elements of the same support, but his pan-Arabism hasn't really panned (haha) out and his pan-Africansim has nowhere near the same resonance, which rather leaves him as just another rhetorical secular blowhard. *You don't get to be a presidential candidates in Iran (ie Kouroubi/ Mousavi) without being 'ruling class' and Rafsanjani/ Khatami are actual ex presidents.
  5. Wing Commander 3 had a losing mission sequence, if you always succeeded in getting the temblor you'd never see them at all. In WC4 it was also possible to lose by messing up the choices at the end.
  6. It's also problematic because the torrents 'know' they are being monitored and either block IPs known to be monitoring or seed dozens of spoofed IPs to them. On the subject of mass mailing of 'warning letters' I noted with despondency that ACS: Law folded a week or so ago. It is truly a tragedy that retired pensioners on dial up will no longer get letters demanding payment of fines in lieu of court action for no reason other than someone on a torrent spoofing their IP.
  7. That's what D2D is doing with certain (mostly older) games, though they charge $5 which you get as a discount if you end up buying. I can't see it catching on, it would probably be difficult to implement and regulate properly, and an hours play if about half the length of some games nowadays. charging 5$ to rent a game for an hour is such a ripoff, i can only imagine it would make people want to pirate MORE. I definitely cant picture that type of scheme winning anyone over. Sorry, the d2d thing is $5 for five hours, so it's a decent amount of time. The second sentence was referring specifically to the 1 hour on steam idea but ended up implying both were an hour.
  8. That's what D2D is doing with certain (mostly older) games, though they charge $5 which you get as a discount if you end up buying. I can't see it catching on, it would probably be difficult to implement and regulate properly, and an hours play if about half the length of some games nowadays.
  9. I didn't take it seriously, as I said at the end the only serious thing was the question of why so many people who object to piracy on moral grounds think it's OK to throw unfounded accusations around despite that being morally questionable as well, as it always happens. And that's a garbage assumption. It's also irrelevant as I didn't come close to defending piracy by the most broad definition possible.
  10. Why do those who get upset at piracy feel the need to, and that it is OK to, imply (if they're a gutless worm crawling on their belly) or outright say that those with a contrary view are pirates- thus defaming them. If you're going to go on about morality and the like then surely it is also immoral to slander? Hmm, you're a lawyer, is defaming someone on the internet slander or libel, I've always wondered whether it's counted as written (I presume) or spoken, or is it covered by the blanket defamation? Am I obliged to give you a chance to apologise or do I skip straight to the litigation at dawn part? Where does a slander stand on the morality scale relative to 'stealing'? Am I being serious?* [..] I'll give you credit, you were at least blunt about it unlike the usual so you're not a gutless worm. It's also rather amusing because I'm situationally incapable of pirating, seeing as I have dial up, or a mobile connection with a whopping 2 GB data cap. Still, if all you can come up with is TPB my point stands, if you pirate something you'll get sued rather than prosecuted except under unusual circumstances like running a large commercial enterprise. Mass mailings of 'infringement notices' would trump actual criminal cases by a factor of several thousand, I would suspect. *Well, the first question is a serious one, and I have always wondered about the defamation part though I'd guess it would vary by jurisdiction.
  11. Well, it's almost always covered in civil law, as I understand it, ie you get sued for piracy rather than arrested unless there are very unusual circumstances. That's why it not being stealing is significant, as stealing is enforced by police while rights infringements are enforced by the rights holders, in civil court.
  12. I've already got around the multiple Ravel aspects in PST/ IWD2 etc by the simple rhetorical device of defining D&D as a single dimension. Which leaves AP (no obvious analogue, maybe if there'd been a bit more from Albatross he could have been a scarf wearing, cross dressing Ravel) and FONV which I haven't played. Not much can be said about Alien or Torn since they weren't even released, and DS3 hasn't been released yet. So the point still stands, Carth is twice as dimensional as Kreia.
  13. per WoD, much as I would like to claim to be an internet ninja it was the first link in the first Telegraph article I read.
  14. Carth is a true multidimensional character, far more than Kreia. Carth exists in the D&D dimension (Anomen), Jade Empire dimension (Sky), SW dimension (well duh) and the Mass Effect dimension (Kaiden). How many more dimensions do you want? Kreia only exists in the D&D and SW dimensions. Thus Carth > Kreia FACT! or QED, for the cerebral who like a nice discussion of the finer points of Kant, Goethe, Descartes or Mathers in their RPG.
  15. Warning: If you work for the US government DO NOT click the link below http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wikileaks-...TS-MEETING.html Goes to the cable (presumably, it's of little interest to me)
  16. You can read the Steamworks brochure, if you want. It's somewhat relevant to a PS3 type as it's supposed to be 'ported' to PS3 at some point and with the PS3's own DRM being irretrievably compromised now chances are Sony will try and implement something similar at some point. It won't be a problem for pirates in any case, Steam DRM hasn't stopped cracks since the game it was first used in, though it does stop pre day 1 piracy (as does every online verification system). There are a truly vast number of potential reasons to dislike it but most would probably cite it being a DRM- you're handing over access control of your software in this case to a 3rd party who can arbitrarily rescind it and whose software must be installed, running and monitoring your system if you want to play the game- as being the most significant. Personally, while I have no problem with Steam itself- there are no circumstances under which I'd ever buy from them but I'm happy for others to if they want- I'd be ecstatic if Steamworks fell into a dimensional vortex and got retroactively deleted from reality.
  17. Shrug Three indictments all (if we're going to believe 3rd hand reports) Hezbollah types with maybe some more down the line is a far cry from the overt top level support and backing Syria was supposed to have given. If you're interested you can check out the Mehlis Report which was the original UN report on the matter and was pretty definitive that Syrian Intelligence was responsible. Those mentioned in the report as being arrested were quietly released in 2009 after four years detention without trial as the key witnesses were "no longer considered reliable". Mehlis' successor actually recommended they be released in 2006. Basically the UN handling of the investigation has been a shambles right from the start.
  18. Heh, I'm not the one stating as fact that Hezbollah killed Rafik Hariri when there's no indictment, no conviction and not even any publicly available evidence to back it up, just third hand leaks. Pointing out that there was exactly the same pattern previous with respect to the Syrians and the "facts" eventually turned out to be... not exactly facts is hardly a misstatement or distortion. If you insist, though: BBC (2010): Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri has said he was wrong to accuse Syria of assassinating his father - former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri. He told the Saudi-owned Asharq al-Awsat newspaper that the charge had been politically motivated. FoxNews (2005): President Bush called on the U.N. Security Council to meet as soon as possible to hold Syria accountable for the slaying of former Lebanese leader Rafik Hariri (search) on Feb. 14, saying U.S. officials were talking with U.N. officials and Arab governments about what steps to take. I can provide more if you like, it isn't exactly difficult to prove. I'm a bit perplexed here. Are you really saying that Nasrallah expecting some HB members to be charged proves they are guilty?
  19. Dunno what happened to tank man. He's one of the people I've always wanted to meet, if only because that would mean he's still alive. You're the one who made the first accusation of bad faith, not me, so it's a bit rich you getting all huffy now. (youth unemployment estimates in Yemen pretty much start at 50% and go on "up to" 80%. That's way higher than either Tunisia or Egypt. The estimates are only slightly lower for Jordan. also, massive protests in Yemen? 20k, in a city of 2 million and a country of 24 million vs Egypt with roughly 3x the population where estimates go "up to" 2 million, or 100x that number, and even the authorities seem to accept half a million. Plus, Syria next domino to fall as day of rage attracts... well, no one, apparently. Or in other words, there are still lots more people in Yemen and Jordan with "nothing to lose at all"/ more of a "lost generation" yet they are relatively quiescent. There's clearly something else at work and, well, I've shown the evidence to back my thoughts up and they correspond with what has been observed, not some sort of perceived wisdom.)
  20. Um, no. I never said that living in squalor was necessary and sufficient for revolution, nor that that risk of revolution is a function of poverty that can be analysed and whose inflection points can be used to make predictions. You either misunderstood or are twisting my original statement by introducing a notion I didn't talk about and then attacking that. Bad form. I replied to exactly what you wrote, I even quoted it, twice, now thrice. Yeah, you need the oppression too but I never forced you to say that "people don't stand in front of tanks -or bayonet charges- unless they don't have much to lose", reinforcing "reasons for the revolts in Tunisia and Egypt are consistently reported to be the high unemployment rates and skyrocketing food prices" two things which effect the poor far more than the middle class. I did two things. I pointed out that the stats indicated that Tunisia and Egypt were relatively well off and had relatively well developed middle classes, which supported my assertion about a decent middle class being important. I pointed out that they also severely weaken any assertion that those rebelling "don't have much to lose" (now four) as it's clear they have a lot more to lose than people in similar situations who aren't rebelling to anywhere near the same extent and would have far more difficulty actually feeding themselves and getting jobs, the two things you cited as "reasons for the revolts". Since the level of oppression (the main factor in the west being smug and self satisfied being the lack of oppression- it's hard to be complacent if someone's got a jackboot rammed into your spine) is roughly the same in all the countries I cited... I don't blame you for trying to back out of a losing argument, but trying to do it by implying I'm deliberately misinterpreting you? Now that's bad form.
  21. I understand the situation pretty well, for an outsider. Hezbollah does not have all the guns. Everyone has guns, from the itty bitties on up. They may not still have formalised militia but they certainly can reconstitute them quick and they'll get their stored hardware and the central military's hardware (which H will get none of as they have their stand alone militia) if anything kicks off. Everyone knows it and that is largely why things don't restart. Also, Jumblatt was one of the more strongly pro-Syrian leaders in the Civil War. A year or so ago 'everyone' "knew" Syria killed Hariri. And Lebanon is deeply, deeply hostile to Israel. They may not be willing to fight a war they know they'll lose (border clashes on the other hand- and with that nice pro western government in place) but it doesn't come from Hezbollah alone, it comes from a history of extremely unpleasant Israeli actions that have systematically managed to ... annoy just about every group in a staggeringly complex ethno-religious mix. Even their erstwhile allies on the loony maronite fringe hate them for betraying the SLA.
  22. Nah, I was responding to the part I quoted "reasons for the revolts in Tunisia and Egypt are consistently reported to be the high unemployment rates and skyrocketing food prices" and "I'm sticking with my idea that people don't stand in front of tanks -or bayonet charges- unless they don't have much to lose" especially. If either were true you'd expect revolutions to have kicked off somewhere hopelessly despondent (or if you prefer, the place with the poorest living conditions) like Yemen, not in relatively affluent Tunis; and moved to poor Jordan rather than not badly off Egypt. The oppression part I'd agree with, with the proviso that IMO the sort of overt and systematic corruption practised routinely by the Arab Kleptocracy certainly qualifies as a form of oppression. The poor living conditions though... not supported by the evidence.
  23. Hezbollah didn't take over Lebanon, its ethno-religious based constitution (which enshrines over representatioon of Christians and under representation of both major Muslim sects) makes it impossible for them to do so short of military coup which would restart the civil war. They simply got enough people to agree with them- primarily, iirc, General Aoun's Christians- to get 'their' US educated, Sunni, candidate into the Prime Ministership exactly (well, 'exactly') as would happen in any other democracy. Israel would be right to 'worry' about Lebanon getting AT missiles anyway, and not just because of Hezbollah destroying tanks live on TV in 2006. If there's one thing nearly everyone in Lebanon can agree on, from their former buddies in the Phalange to itty bitty players like the Druze and Alawites it's that no-one likes Israel.
  24. There is this. It could just be a misunderstanding/ miscommunication as wholesale canceling seems a bit extreme but then it also has been available for importing (or buying from GG) to those in NA/ UK for months.
  25. Well yeah, but those 500k+ were as I (rather bluntly) described them "coddled, smug and self satisfied", something the average arab is not. If even the Irish, Greeks (it seems) and Icelanders are willing to put up with the stunts their governments, bankers and associated others have pulled there really isn't much hope for meaningful change in Europe as the population is just too apathetic to do anything much beyond pay lip service and can be safely marginalised and ignored by those in power.
×
×
  • Create New...