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Everything posted by Zoraptor
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That's supported too by the next tier card having 'only' 10GB. (I would guess that the actual reason for it having 24GB is that it really is a Titan replacement, and Titan RTX had 24GB. Ironically, that would make the card a significant improvement in value compared to its predecessor even at 1400usd+. If it isn't... then something like a lot of extra RT processing would have to be there. Otherwise it's just burning money- not so bad when you charge what you want- and adding even more power overhead. While the 16k remark may have been facetious the problem at higher resolutions would be that while the RAM might be better utilised the card would struggle to push enough frames, especially raytraced)
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Politics - wait for it... wait for it... 2020 isn't over yet
Zoraptor replied to Gorth's topic in Way Off-Topic
The Bylerussian police are probably disappearing people and torturing people. Probably because western media is happy to acritically report one side of the story but not the other, to whit... ...both Belsat and VoA are state sponsored propaganda channels, and are useful mostly for telling you what the Polish and US governments respectively want you to think (and in Belsat's case, what the Polish government wants Byelorussians to think). Same as RT/ CCTV are mostly good for telling you what the Russian or Chinese want you to think. -
Better fit here anyway. Excess deaths from Alzheimers and Dementia are almost certainly unlabeled covid deaths. You can die directly of Alzheimers and other dementias but they almost always die of 'complications' rather than the dementia advancing so much it affects something critical for life. More than half our total deaths came from one dementia residential home most of them were only listed as 'probable' cases- when they died- because it's dangerous to test patients with dementia. Testing is unpleasant enough for people who know what is going on, if you cannot explain why you're ramming a swab up their nose or down their throat you're going to get bitten which isn't great at the best of times let alone if the person biting is infectious. Since our healthcare system never got close to overwhelmed all bar one (iirc) were ultimately confirmed as covid deaths; last one was someone who definitely did have covid, but died more than a month after 'recovering' so is technically excluded. Incess deaths for respiratory diseases is probably because many of the statistical indicators for death from respiratory disease in general are the same as those for covid in particular. Many of those who would be expected to die of generalised pneumonia type effects from well known diseases will instead have died specifically from covid caused pneumonia. Looks like they've changed their methodology a fair bit, last time I checked the excess death rate was 50% but it's about 25% now. I'd suspect that they're better able to accurately assign deaths now that the health system has some spare capacity and isn't being clogged up. The dementia stats back that up a fair bit too, at the outbreak height there's a very significant number of excess deaths without covid listed as a complication but as it winds down almost all deaths are assigned covid as a complication. End of the day if the choice is keeping someone alive or checking exactly what someone else died of option 1 is going to be emphasised. So in the more general sense, excess deaths are useful when the system is under too much strain to be reporting accurately and for estimating total system rather than the specific impacts. And yeah, as always, consideration has to be given to how they are being used and by whom.
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'3090' being some sort of 'failed'/ non certified pro card like the RadeonVII (16GB HBM2 so also massive overkill for consumer) was to the MI60 might be possible. Recent rumour is also of a 20GB '3080+' which is kind of weird to do in a vacuum but makes sense for 'failed' '3090's. Personally at this point I suspect the high memory cards may have a very large relative increase in RT cores to try and get 4k raytracing at high framerates; with '3070' and lower still having raytracing at more gimmick level. They're also supposed to be on a 7nm node, again. I'd presume Samsung 7nm since the TDP estimates have been absolutely consistent and are hard to reconcile with TSMC's 7nm (plus zero taping out rumours for TSMC). Oh well, guess we'll find out in a couple of days.
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Politics - wait for it... wait for it... 2020 isn't over yet
Zoraptor replied to Gorth's topic in Way Off-Topic
It's certainly not a flawless measure* but it is a good and if applied properly objective measure of overall impact**. The situation with excess deaths is analogous to the old fire in the theatre situation where x people die from the fire, and y people die from the stampede when people try to get out. The people who die in the stampede didn't burn to death, but if the fire didn't happen they almost certainly wouldn't have died so including them in the death toll is fair enough. Theoretically the excess death rate catches all the people who died because all ICU beds were full as well as dying of 'pneumonia' at home instead of diagnosed covid19. *since the death rate isn't a, uh, flat line year to year and has natural variance, and everything coronavirus related gets heavily politicised in some way. **and historically, it has been extensively used in Spanish American Flu calculations. They're certainly very much subject to being politicised themselves though, 'genocide olympics' is full of people comparing demographic/ excess death numbers of one event to confirmed numbers of another to 'prove' someone is less bad than someone else. -
Politics - wait for it... wait for it... 2020 isn't over yet
Zoraptor replied to Gorth's topic in Way Off-Topic
Obviously from the R standpoint not explicitly denouncing all protesters as rioters and anarchists would be 'normalising the forces of chaos'. From an objective perspective it's a view that does have merits, even if it's overblown and lacking nuance due to politics. Reality seems to be that the CCP bought the local Wuhan branch's statements hook line and sinker more than anything; there's plenty to blame the CCP for in the outbreak- promoting international travel while banning it domestically, especially, was grossly irresponsible at very very very best- but the initial outbreak was covered up by locals, to the significant detriment of China as a whole. The actual data released by China in terms of R numbers and fatalities plus treatment regime success seems to be decently accurate (well, it's inaccurate, but most countries data is significantly off too and China's isn't unusually off. UK excess deaths put their death toll ~50% higher than declared, for example). The job of the WHO is not to critique countries, it's basically to issue advisories unless a country asks for help. If they critiqued the US response for example there would be hell to pay and claims of undue interference. They are very limited, by quite deliberate design, in what they can do and what they can require countries to do; ie they cannot require much at all from countries and are almost exclusively advisory in nature. They didn't require travel bans or the like because they cannot require travel bans and the like. It was and is up to individual countries as to how they respond. They also have the inherent problem that knowledge always lags behind reality. If you find out some Wuhan official has fudged figures the reasonable minimum time to discover that is about a month because that's how long it takes to do the tests and analyse the statistics and that's the minimum time. -
Politics - wait for it... wait for it... 2020 isn't over yet
Zoraptor replied to Gorth's topic in Way Off-Topic
Brenton Tarrant got stopped literally by a guy throwing an eftpos (creditcard) machine at him; and almost certainly would have killed more people if he hadn't been tackled by a guy at the first mosque who damaged his gear. I eagerly await Gromnir's considered wait and see non conclusion jumping input that that could not have happened. And how Tarrant should have gone for a revolver because they're faster loading and firing than a semi automatic AK, or AR15 variant and both legal and easy to obtain in New Zealand. -
The formal TDP of the GTX 480 was 'only' 250W and the recommended PSU was (a quality) 600W. OK, Seasonic is a PSU manufacturer and has an interest in selling more powerful and profitable units, but their's is the only rec we have for the '3090' and it is 850W. When it comes to power it probably does need to be pointed out that the pretty efficient for its size/ computing power at stock 2080Ti can go up to ~600W itself with the Kingpin watercooled version. I have to admit I've got rather skeptical about a lot of the leaks. I was skeptical when the initial claims were 50% more performance and 50% less power draw because that was TSMC's node improvement claim with the or replaced with an and; and I'm skeptical now that the claims seem to imply 50% better performance but more than 50% greater power draw as that is literally no improvement on the power/ performance level (excluding tensor).
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Politics - wait for it... wait for it... 2020 isn't over yet
Zoraptor replied to Gorth's topic in Way Off-Topic
lol. The system actually has to work for that to be true. Otherwise, lack of outrage is taken as assent, and nothing changes. Taking a breath and waiting has consistently meant nothing meaningful changes. I jump to no conclusions- at most it's a small hop given the history of equivalent cases which leaked like sieves so long as the leaks painted the victim in a bad light. Leaping to conclusions would be something like, say, thinking Russia would be bankrupt in 6 months in 2014 because of US sanctions. There is no knife shown, nor has any witness corroborated the claim about it. He's been persistently been described by witnesses as a peacemaker in the initial argument, and not violent. There is no evidence of drug use. I'll freely admit having an absolute and extraordinary low opinion of the US law enforcement and justice systems though, for what that's worth. If there's one thing I really appreciate about US electoral/ healthcare/ justice systems it's how much better I end up feeling about ours after comparison, and I'm not overly happy about ours either. -
Politics - wait for it... wait for it... 2020 isn't over yet
Zoraptor replied to Gorth's topic in Way Off-Topic
Well yeah, that ain't exactly compelling though as the cops aren't a disinterested party and the witness said he wasn't armed. If they were planning on deliberately shooting someone who posed no threat- which is certainly the worst interpretation of what happened, yes- and getting away with it then they need to establish that they thought the person posed an imminent threat and that they were in fear of their lives; yelling that the person has a knife does both. And it does both even if he isn't armed and they knew that. Neither video shows the slightest evidence of him being armed though, apart from the cops yelling it. The videos are an incomplete picture of course, but they not only show no evidence of him being armed but also no evidence of how he could realistically have been mistaken for being armed. Similarly there is no actual evidence he was on drugs. Frankly, if there were any evidence of either I'd expect the PD /union/ lawyers of the cops to leak it immediately. Until there is evidence it's just innuendo at best or deliberate character assassination at worse. -
Politics - wait for it... wait for it... 2020 isn't over yet
Zoraptor replied to Gorth's topic in Way Off-Topic
Not talking about the video though. You mentioned someone saying he had a knife and him being on drugs. Is there any actual evidence of that beyond someone 'mentioning' it? And who, specifically, mentioned it? Is it the same people who mention, say, covid19 being caused by 5G because Bill Gates wants to sterilise the world's population? Or is it someone who has read his medical report and has a medical background and might face consequences for lying about it? Big difference in confidence level depending on who is saying it. As I said, 'people' always talk about the victims in these incidents reaching for weapons or being on drugs, even if neither is true. If there isn't any actual evidence of either being true then it's likely just a smear to demonise the victim and protect the perpetrator. -
Politics - wait for it... wait for it... 2020 isn't over yet
Zoraptor replied to Gorth's topic in Way Off-Topic
Is there any actual evidence of this? Because something like that is 'said' every single time there's a police brutality incident- the victim is always said to be drugged up andor going for a weapon, even when they are neither; because saying so establishes the initial narrative which is then hard to challenge. It also, of course, poisons the jury pool on the off chance it actually does go to trial. -
The nextbox slides claim 9x the GRays as nVidia, though one suspects they aren't actually measuring the same thing (peak vs average being the obvious one) and the 3-10x the equivalent of non accelerated RT performance is the more valid claim. IIRC that's around about the performance gain of the first set of RTX cards; so not great, but not terrible. AMD's raytracing implementation should be quite interesting since, presumably, the Sony side won't be using a DXR implementation unlike xbox and (effectively) nVidia.
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By and large the difference between a console and desktop GPU is similar to that between a desktop and laptop version of a GPU- lower clocks, better efficiency; and with the proviso that the console 'laptop' has a highly customised SoC type set up. Even much maligned Vega is extremely efficient, when run in APUs or undervolted/ underclocked and may actually be the best selling AMD arch ever due to being used so long in APUs. The problem with Vega was that it was a dual purpose arch with professional/ compute/ science uses and emphasised raw compute power over effective gaming power. In the end that was the result of not having much money, and (correctly) betting on Zen. The elephant in the room may well be texture compression. Much of nVidia's advantage comes from getting way better effective bandwidth from the same memory. If AMD has cracked that problem it may well be game on. People will care if they're running a 250W Intel CPU and 350+W nVidia. 'Money no object' people won't care, but they never care. My Vega64 will run fine on a 550W PSU even with power limits off, but then I also have a 65W CPU only. A fair few people will not be at all used to the old days of having to meticulously check not just wattage but 12V amperage and connector numbers. On the more meta level, I suspect a lot of people who are shocked and appalled at AMD's energy inefficiency will suddenly be of the opinion that power draw is irrelevant if nVidia really does go full Thermi this gen. No doubt it will be different, same as current gen console GPUs weren't literally rebadged 78xx and 570. They're not going to have the same memory configuration and direct access to the CPU, but then they never have. I'd be skeptical of them being architecturally nerfed though. I'd agree if you said that about RadeonVII, but... The corollary being that with a switch to a more advanced, albeit not as much more advanced, node nVidia is claiming ~50% improvement (OK, more for RTX to be fair), but at ~50% extra power draw. On the power/ performance balance that is no improvement at all except for tensor stuff. In contrast 5700XT is just below 1080Ti/ 2070S level, but Vega64 was ~1080 level; plus 5700XT has 40CU vs 64 and is 180W vs 210W. That's a big improvement CU/CU (more than 60%) and decent (~15%) improvement is efficiency as well. The big question being why there wasn't at least a 60CU Navi1 card- probably capacity issues at TSMC, and unlike with the RadeonVII Navi Instinct cards are going to be on a different arch with CDNA, so there aren't/ won't be non certified versions to sell to consumers. (For everything: open question as to how it plays out on release and how accurate the leaks are, of course)
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I think AMD have a pretty decent chance of being very competitive this gen, at least if the rumours are true. 1) node wise nVidia has a bit of a sidegrade for the consumer line, and the top cards are supposed to be the highest wattage consumer cards ever. The node improvement is always expressed as a performance gain at the same power draw, or an efficiency gain at same performance. In this case performance may be up, but so is power. 2) in contrast the nextbox specs have its total system wattage less than a 5700XT despite the extra 12 CUs plus an 8 core CPU and other components being included; and with comparable sustained frequency. That is, at least, a big gain in efficiency; which can presumably be traded for more performance in a desktop card. 3) an RDNA1 Big Navi would have been very competitive with Turing. 5700XT was only a mid range 40CU offering after all, while 80CUs would not double performance a 2080Ti was only ~50% faster. An 80CU Big Nav1 could realistically have been faster than a 2080Ti (with a 350+W power draw...) 4) bringing the titan down into the consumer line from prosumer suggests nVidia think they need an overkill option 5) most of the concrete metrics for ampere I've seen are specifically for pro cards whose chips were fabbed at TSMC, not Samsung. 6) if the timelines are right nVidia is releasing consumer ampere near literally next week while AMD still has a couple of months to go (after the consoles' release, one suspects, since MSony funded RDNA2). A bit of a difference in hype and leakage levels is to be expected, and AMD probably wants to draw a bit of a line under the Raja-esque overpromising.
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The 2190* is meant to be a Titan replacement rather than a 2080 replacement, so the size difference is at least a bit misleading. Also, 24GB of RAM and 350+W, allegedly. *Betting that all nVidia's 21 years of geforce guff is leading up to yet another confusing and inconsistent renaming scheme.
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Hitman 3 spoilers:
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There's at least some evidence that there were narrative issues too and it isn't just incompetence from everyone else. This in particular ("..and to my knowledge, there were no delays caused by the Bloodlines 2 narrative development.") triggered a slight twinge since they had already stated during the recent MCA kerfuffle that all MCA's content had been superceded/ removed even prior to that controversy. That's not too surprising given 5 years of development, but there clearly has been quite a lot of narrative revision going on if it had all been removed and would not have been taken lightly given MCA was a big name for the story to hang on. Though that could, of course, be due to tinkering with other aspects influencing/ requiring narrative changes.
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There's been a bit more information on the Xbox seriesX from Hot Chips over the last day or so. Most of it was known or rumoured beforehand: 8 core Zen2 (2x4 chiplets) 52 CU RDNA2 video (26x2 pairs) DLSS equivalent (previously rumoured, but now confirmed) Some raytracing numbers, though they're hard to directly compare with nVidias. "3-10x performance uplift" is probably the least equivocal statement. ~170W power draw, no thermal throttling on CPU or GPU so they run at 3.8/ 1.8Ghz sustained Power draw is pretty impressive, since it's less than a desktop 5700XT's but there isn't that much difference in frequency (+~200Mhz for the 5700XT; boost, not sustained) between the SeriesX 52CU GPU and the 40CU 5700XT, and the xbox figure is whole system so includes maybe ~65W for the CPU etc.
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Guess I'm fortunate in not ever being very tempted to preorder. Project sounds like a bit of a disaster at this point. Most interesting thing from Mitsoda's statement was that he was fired a month before the organisational changes were announced but only made a statement today. In some ways it's completely unsurprising, Paradox's history outside its core competency of strategy games has almost never- Cities: Skylines being the obvious exception- been a successful one, either because the games were rubbish, didn't sell or because their relationship broke down with the developers (eg Mount&Blade). It wasn't necessarily a 'bad' decision to fire Mitsoda. Sometimes writers write too much stuff, or stuff that cannot be easily implemented- see MCA and Dying Light 2 for an example. There is such a thing as being too enthusiastic about a project. I doubt that's the case here though. One of the persistent factors in Paradox's awful external performance has been dreadful production oversight; if Brian were writing far too much or tinkering or whatever Paradox should have stopped it ages ago. They're just not very good at all at external productions. Who knows, maybe the new Paradox CEO wants to go back to his roots and make it a free-to-play phone game.
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Yeah, they've only ever done low core count chips on 10nm, and the cannonlake SKU didn't even have a functional iGPU. They still only have 4c/8t offerings with 10nm and all(?) the Tigerlake offerings top out at 4/8 too, but they are meant to launch server chips Soon(TM) and that would imply better and more reliable yields- or that they're doing chiplets. Alderlake desktop's only meant to go up to 8c (8 single threaded big cores, 8 atom small cores) and for desktop the big question is probably what clock speeds 10nm can get to, the problem with the current 5.3Ghz flagship chips is that if their replacements cannot match that a lot of any IPC improvement is canceled out- and a 9900k may still be faster if its HT virtual cores are faster than an atom/ Microsoft doesn't do scheduling properly or whatever.
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Politics - wait for it... wait for it... 2020 isn't over yet
Zoraptor replied to Gorth's topic in Way Off-Topic
Yeah, there doesn't exactly seem to be massive responsibility taken by those in high office at big corporations. A list of CEOs at big corps who have been actively fired would be short, those fired without a massive golden handshake even shorter. They almost always 'resign', with a massive pay out. Here at least poor performance by State Owned Enterprises almost always results in a worse result for those responsible precisely because it's owned by the state. If they're badly run politicians' careers are badly effected, so poor performance tends to get stamped out. OTOH corporate leadership tends to get longer to perform, and way more soft landings for failure (eg Theo Spierings at Fonterra; 8 million dollar severance pay- best part of a billion dollars of write downs and loss associated with him. And while that was not entirely his fault he was running a literal monopoly) -
Some more information (though not much) on Intel's consumer GPU offerings via Architecture Day. External fab, hardware RT, launch 2021 expected. A few other interesting bits like them licensing a GDDR controller rather than designing their own. Otherwise, not much from the event unless you're interested in laptops (better iGPUs/ Tigerlake SoCs) or are invested in making jokes about Intel's node size conventions: Tigerlake now isn't 10nm++ but 10nm SuperFin. Presumably, AlderLake will now be 10nm SuperDuperFin instead of 10nm+++. They've also retconned Cannonlake's 10nm iteration to be 10nm- presumably to stop people calling icelake's process 10nm+. Of all the things wrong Intel responds to it's memes about 14nm++++++.
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Politics - wait for it... wait for it... 2020 isn't over yet
Zoraptor replied to Gorth's topic in Way Off-Topic
I suspect a lot of people really dislike that sort of win-above-all type of justice, but they're politically irrelevant since their only real alternative is Trump. The votes of people who are fine with railroading the poor or stupid and gaming the system to get a conviction is at least theoretically up for grabs; anyone who doesn't like it mostly vote D already. -
Politics - wait for it... wait for it... 2020 isn't over yet
Zoraptor replied to Gorth's topic in Way Off-Topic
Will CNN etc even show it though? Watching the reaction all the D establishment figures are bringing it up to try and shut it down, implying it was Republicans who'd made the observations about her prosecutorial record despite it being Gabbard and Warren who took Harris out. Oh well, just claim Tulsi was a Russian plant and bring up Warren formerly being a Republican is it gets traction, I guess. Fox OTOH will probably play it on a loop unless Murdoch has decided Trump is definitely going to lose. Still, if you're left in the US what are you going to do? Vote for the milquetoast status maximus ultimus quo with ultimately meaningless progressive trimmings, or Donald Trump. Exact same situation as last time from the Democrats, hoping that leftists will swallow a turd rather than risk Trump. Will probably work this time too, after 4 years of Trump, but just shows how little the D establishment actually learnt from 2016.