xzar_monty

I also doubt he will come, but looked at from another point of view, SA is not in a potentially invidious position, it is in a position to do something heroic -- and its current policy of neutrality is the epitome of spinelessness.

I love this. Drum cam video of Vinny Appice doing Dio's We Rock with some band I know nothing about. The singer is pretty good, although he's obviously nowhere near Dio himself, but to watch Vinny is just lovely. Marvelous sense of dynamics here: he hits hard but also has the subtle stuff in complete control. Not a hard song to play, this one, but making it this smooth isn't a piece of cake.

Moldova to leave the CIS. Whether this turns out to be a blow for Putin / Russia probably hinges on whether any countries join in. https://tass.com/world/1617469

@Zoraptor, do you have anything to say on whether a military entity, on bringing down a Kinzhal, would definitely know that it's done just that? I mean, given its velocity, I suppose any air defence might well know what it's hitting, but I'm not sure on this. (Just to be sure: this is obviously a completely separate question from what the UA airforce claims it's done.)

Indeed. Obviously I'm not an expert on the subject, but I could quite reliably recognize David Gilmour or Neil Peart from less than one bar of music, and I suppose that piece of scrap metal might well scream "Kinzhal" to someone who really knows this stuff. But even then that would only amount to one (1) Kinzhal destroyed, provided that the time and location are correct... I hope we're going to see some better evidence in the near future.

Would love to see proper evidence for the Kinzhals, as that would be a superb achievement.

I have no doubt that plans like this may well exist. My point was that whether they are realizable is a completely different question. So my response to your "Belarus has no future, it will be assimilated into Russia by the end of the decade" remains as stated: "Could be, but I wouldn't make any predictions that go that far". Russia itself may well splinter into pieces well before then. And again: it may indeed be that Belarus will be a part of Russia by 2030. (Sorry for the delay, was spending some time at the archipelago. Not Deadfire.) As for Zelenskyi possibly planning to conquer some Russian ground: makes me think of some Finns at various points between 1941 and 1944... Once you get going, it can be hard to stop.

There's no question that that is one possible scenario, but with the current Russia, I wouldn't make any predictions that go that far. EDIT: Sheesh, Gerhard Schröder was celebrating Victory Day in the Russian embassy in Berlin. Oh dear.

Ancient political wisdom will tell you, though, that for a ruler, it's actually rather safe to be laughed at by the people. This way, the people are much less likely to revolt, as they will regard themselves as being somehow above the ruler who is a fool. (I don't remember what Machiavelli said about laughter, if anything. I do know what he said about fear and love.) But yes, the reaction of tyrannies to laugher is a different matter.

Speaking of possible health concerns: (unlike others), Lukasenka was in civilian clothes in Russia, was not able to walk 300 meters, had some kind of bandage on his arm, skipped the bosses' lunch and did not deliver his own usual speech after returning to Belarus. Whether this truly signals something, I don't know. The future of Belarus is interesting nevertheless, with Lukasenka aging and the country falling even more clearly under Russian rule, what with the new deal with nukes and all that.

While I agree there's plenty of exaggeration and poor discussion around, I would argue that that kind of hyperbole doesn't really improve the quality, either: you're just sinking into the same morass yourself. I haven't seen anyone put forth either the first or the second part of what you describe.

And now for something not completely different: an interesting thread on Russian misinformation campaigning. Note that although this looks shabby and unprofessional indeed, it works, as there are plenty of people who do fall for it. Credit where it's due: Russia has chosen a good way of furthering its aims. Obviously it relies on the credulity of others, but that's not Russia's fault.

(Probably should be an edit but here goes: to make a comparison, London just recently had snipers, too, and pretty heavy security measures, in the coronation. It also had some disturbances, demonstrations and so on. But what it also very notably had was an awful lot of people celebrating. Victory Day is the big day in Russia, as far as celebrations are concerned, but it appears that this time they had the snipers, they had all the security and then some, but they didn't really have all that many people celebrating. And that is significant.)

I understand why the manufacturer might want to put "GLUTEN FREE" on the side of a potato vodka bottle, but at the same time it does look pretty d'oh to me, like, no kidding.

What I was getting at was that the combination of strict security measures, not a lot of citizens attending (in comparison to the amount of security personnel attending) and a fairly shabby military parade paints a picture of a not-too-happy Moscow in the middle of this war. Anyone is free to disagree, of course, preferably with "No it isn't!", as per above. Putin's speech didn't make an awful lot of sense, either, in terms of facts, for example. One of his arms continues to look extremely awkward as well, but that doesn't have to be anything more sinister than a frozen shoulder, which can really be a nuisance.

Of course I have, and you're right, they do. But those two questions don't constitute an argument, and if you have one, I don't quite gather what it is.

Snipers on the rooftops of Moscow during Victory Day: https://t.me/ostorozhno_moskva/5123. What a happy place to be on this happy day: apparently there are also much more policemen than ordinary citizens on the streets; this according to reporters present. EDIT: I cannot verify that the comment is true, but a Finnish military professional said that the parade in Moscow looked essentially "pitiful", as an ordinary Finnish Independence Day parade will showcase both more and more modern military force (nukes excluded). Given the relative sizes of the countries, Russia really ought to look much more imposing.

What's with the Ponies, Elephants and Unicorns? Is that a reference to something, or is he just rambling?

Probably goes all the way back to the Herostratus case -- and surely beyond, we just don't have documentation. But then, best not to lose perspective. I love the exchange where a well-known sage was prompted with the statement that "Man is stupid, selfish, cruel", and he countered it with "Man is also wise, affectionate and kind". I mean, yeah, they're both true.

Astonishing, by the way, how some types of morbid behaviour tend to provoke more morbid behaviour of the same type. I suppose anyone who has worked in the press will know that reported suicides can increase the number of suicides committed. (Even if the famous Werther phenomenon provoked by Goethe is probably not real.) Meta-analysis on the topic: https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m575

I can't help thinking that with all the missiles fired and all the air defence work being done, the odds of shooting down one Super Missile are bound to increase by the sheer force of numbers, even if skill has essentially nothing to do with it. So I won't be all that impressed if one Kinzhal is demonstratably shot down. If someone manages to bring down three, I'll definitely change my mind. [Incidentally, the American author John Barth has, in his book Sabbatical, a nice side note concerning the power of numbers. It states that while any individual sperm ejaculated is almost certain to perish, the fact remains that if the average male in the average marriage wishes to conceive two and precisely two children, odds are that he will. ]

"The other 75% is inconclusive. It could have been European, Middle Eastern, North African, sub-Saharan African, or a mix of any of those." To me, this doesn't say that we know she wasn't black. For instance, if she was 25% European and Middle Eastern as stated and if the other 75% was sub-Saharan African, then she might very well be "black". If not, why? "Black" here would mean, for instance, "made to sit at the back of the bus in the 1950s Alabama".

These two points are, in a way, in contradiction with one another. If indeed only 25% of Cleopatra's racial makeup is certain, then there is no way to know what is the correct race, and from that it follows that it's not possible to avoid this type of criticism no matter which race within the limits prescribed you portray her as being.

What are the possibilities in Serbia, then? Is there a "foster home" or some other kind of institution that he may wind up in? In Finland, the age limit is 15, and cases like this can be really difficult.

The logical fault in this line of thinking is that if the Russian people "can be convinced of anything", then they can also be convinced of victory no matter what happens at Bakhmut, so Putin could easily stop it. He won't, of course, mostly for personal reasons I'd say. (Incidentally, I agree that the Russians can be convinced of anything, by force if necessary. But the situation is very convoluted.)