xzar_monty

In terms of developments inside Russia, I'd wager there's an awful lot of fury within the scientific community. I know something about the academic disciplines of history, geology[*], forestry and archaeology, and it seems to me that Russia is almost completely isolated from much of the West, in terms of co-operation and such, and obviously this is terrible news for the country in that sense. Actually, I'd love to hear what kind of perspective @kanisatha has on this side of things. It has also been reported that many of the approximately 750 000 people who have now fled Russia are particularly well-educated, well-connected and so on, so they represent a disproportionately big loss for Russia in terms of human potential, etc. There is obviously a kind of a precedent for this, because during and after the communist revolution, many of the best-educated and most intelligent Russians were nicely slaughtered by ill-mannered and poorly educated thugs. What a lot of good that did for the Soviet system and its design, as I'm sure we all know. It does appear though, that all the rage and intellectual opposition mustered by the Russian scientific community would amount to absolutely nothing, even it were openly expressed. [*] It's a bit worrying if everything concerning the developments in the Siberian permafrost remains outside international co-operation.

I'm not sure who you're referring to as "people", but Ukrainians surely aren't going to get bored as long as their existence is on the line. Many European states aren't going to get bored as long as so much of their projected future is in jeopardy. For the US, it's much more complex, so boredom probably factors there, at least to some extent. As for Russians, no idea.

Do we have any way of knowing what kind of percentages these losses represent, particularly when it comes to senior officers and generals?

Here's a tweet that I don't think violates any rules on propriety, as I think the BMP getting a hit is already abandoned -- however, if a moderator deems this inappropriate, just delete the comment and please accept my apology. This short video makes me wonder a bit, simply from a physics perspective. I suppose someone like @Zoraptor might be able to help me out. Immediately after the impact, a piece of something is propelled into the original direction of the (I think) Stugna, and a lot faster, too, than the missile was travelling before the impact. What happens? The missile detonates, a piece of it gets extra energy from the detonation and continues to travel in the original direction, leaving a vapor trail -- or what? I find this curious enough to ask. Physics and warfare are not my specialities, unfortunately.

Why "let slip"?

I suppose the Nord Stream incident is going to be one of those cases where we're never going to find a smoking gun, and this is not because it's a particularly poor metaphor when applied to an underwater operation.

Interesting to see the intentional misspelling of America on this page of this thread (twice). I mean, that's one good way to establish your argument as almost certainly not worth taking seriously. Speaking of interesting things, here's something on the Nord Stream sabotage. Whether this is true or not, I certainly cannot say: https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/osint-analysis-six-russian-ships?utm_source=direct&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Oh, absolutely. It would seem to me that with China, Putin is getting closer to an arrangement that is primarily in the interests of China and has little benefit[*] for Russia. We'd have to know the specifics of their dealings, of course, which we don't and won't, but there's no question about who's the stronger party there. [*] Benefit is a tricky term, though. I'm not sure if there's a legal definition, but the ordinary definition can be quibbled about forever.

Wow! I have once played BG2 with all sorts of mods installed, and the quality varied immensely. Some of them are pretty good, I have to say.

What the IWD games hammered home for me was that I really like inter-party interaction, even if it's often quite superficial. I just couldn't get into IWD2 at all, knowing that none of the characters in my party had a backstory or anything to say about anything.

One funny thing about this is that Putin appears to be establishing himself as a stooge of the east, at least to an extent, right now, these very days. It is true, though, that "east = China" but "west" is a more general term.

The issue was the time after Putin, but I'm inclined to think your point might still hold: even after Putin, the Russian law may well be whatever the leader wants it to be. However, I would also agree with Zoraptor in the sense that while the law is malleable, it won't be changed or disregarded to the Russians' obvious detriment.

Now, it is obviously impossible to be certain about any of this stuff, but if I had to bet, I would place my money on the idea that for Putin to be alive at all, he has to be president, so there's approximately a 0% chance of him ending up in the ICC after his presidency. (And, yes, I agree, an approximately 0% chance of him ending up in there while he's president.)

My answer will probably sound pedantic, but yes, of course I accept that, because clearly it is possible. However, for me to consider that something like that has actually happened, I would have to see some pretty convincing evidence for it. I am not willing to entertain the idea simply on the basis that it is possible, which it undeniably is.

My take would be "all three", given what can happen with differences in angle, lighting, etc. You can see a similar phenomenon with some "Before and After" photos that are intended to portray the effectiveness of, say, some fitness regime. Generally what you see, once you subtract the extraneous effects, is that essentially nothing has happened.

I suppose many music enthusiasts have already seen this. Bloody hell this guy is good.

Apparently Ukraine has managed to destroy cruise missiles in Crimea, with drones. Impressive if true. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/21/russian-cruise-missiles-destroyed-in-crimea-blast-ukraine-says

No, that doesn't follow at all. Putin probably went there, but he went with his troupe.

As someone who favors Occam's Razor[*], I would say it's the real one. I would basically vote for the real one every time unless there's some pretty strong evidence to the contrary. [*] Using Occam's Razor, the most probable explanation is that the term refers to the razor of someone called Occam. EDIT: That address by T. Snyder is excellent. Thanks a lot, @Mamoulian War.

The Russian discourse can be seriously weird. (Btw, it would take some serious demonstration to convince me that Mr. P is using body doubles.)

That's unnecessarily condescending, and too much of a generalization. "The Euros" and their press are much more heterogenous than you make them sound. A minor point, granted, but given that you tend to base much of what you write on knowledge, stuff like this looks less than convincing.

I think I can one-up that, believe it or not. Surely you know this?

Just as an example, Russian aircrafts have kept on violating Swedish and Finnish airspace throughout the Ukrainian conflict. There is nothing new about this, as they have done that quite a lot over the years. Whenever the issue is brought up, Russia is either brash or whiny. I cannot recall a single instance of it ever owning up. I know respect can be a worthless currency, but it's stuff like this that makes it essentially impossible to have any respect for Russia, even if it doesn't wage war.

Fair enough, but then you should say that. Earlier you asked how does "Poland face any security risk from Russia". "Any security risk" and "invasion" are NOT the same thing, so please be more careful. Look at the Russian spies recently captured in NATO countries, such as Norway. Those are security risks.

If only it was like this, but the people who have fled the country, for example, are a very small minority. Not a meaningless minority for sure, but a very small one.