BruceVC

Not at all, I wish US tariff threats were meaningless USA tariffs threats are still a concern for most countries because most of the tariffed countries rely on heavy exports to the US Only China has been able to more or less insulate itself from US tariffs because they learnt from last time But what we are seeing is countries building around US tariffs threats South Africa and almost all of Africa is very concerned with any tariffs from the US but AGOA looks like it will be renewed so thats good news, its gone through Congress and just needs Trumps signature with still some uncertainty specifically for South Africa https://www.forbesafrica.com/current-affairs/2026/01/15/agoa-renewal-moves-one-step-closer-but-south-africas-eligibility-remains-uncertain " The United States (U.S.) House of Representatives has approved a three-year extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), following President Donald Trump’s decision to uproot the duty-free agreement in October. Established in 2000 under President Bill Clinton, the preferential trade program offered 32 sub-Saharan African nations duty-free access to the U.S. market for thousands of exports. Despite a renewal receiving the majority vote, 340 to 54, participating states know reinstatement remains uncertain. The bill now heads to the U.S. Senate, which, if approved, will await final approval from Trump, who halted the 25-year agreement just three months ago. "

https://www.wypr.org/2026-01-16/irans-supreme-leader-acknowledges-thousands-killed-as-pressure-builds-on-clerical-rule The Iranian supreme leader has admitted thousands of people were killed during the protests " Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has acknowledged that "thousands" of people have been killed — some of them in what he called an "inhuman, savage manner" — during weeks of unrest across the country. The rare public admission, which took place during a speech broadcast on state television, comes as international scrutiny of Iran's crackdown continues — and after Iranian officials had previously acknowledged significant casualties while blaming terrorists, foreign governments and intelligence agencies for fomenting unrest. But human rights groups say the scale of violence has been far greater than authorities have — until now — admitted publicly. The Norway-based organization Iran Human Rights estimates that more than 3,400 people have been killed nationwide since the protests began, while the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists in Iran group has also documented thousands of deaths and widespread arrests of demonstrators." And the global attention on the brutal crackdown is not going away Obviously Russia and China vetoed any UNSC resolution on Iran but its now been refered to the UN Human Rights Council, I am very interested to see how South Africa will vote because we currently a member https://unwatch.org/after-security-council-meeting-balks-on-iran-30-ngos-demand-unhrc-urgent-session/ "After yesterday’s Security Council meeting on Iran yesterday failed to produce any outcome resolution, a cross-regional coalition of 30 non-governmental organizations and human rights groups today sent an urgent appeal to 100 UN ambassadors in Geneva calling for an emergency session of the UN Human Rights Council to address what they describe as the “horrific mass killings” of protesters by the Islamic Republic of Iran. “Due to the veto power of China and Russia, the Security Council is blocked from taking action on Iran, but we know from past experience that if EU states take the lead at the General Assembly and the Human Rights Council — where there is no veto — they can adopt a strong condemnation of the Iranian regime’s massacre of protesters, and establish mechanisms of investigation, accountability and justice,” said Hillel Neuer, Executive Director of UN Watch, an independent Geneva-based human rights group that plays a leading role in supporting Iranian dissidents. Signatories to today’s appeal come from Australia, Cameroon, Canada, France, Gambia, Ghana, India, Japan, Latvia, Moldova, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United States. The coalition warned that Iran’s violent crackdown on nationwide protests that began on December 28 has resulted in grave, widespread, and systematic violations of international human rights law. Thousands of protesters have been killed by Iranian security forces in recent weeks, with many more injured, arbitrarily detained, tortured, or forcibly disappeared. Protesters have been shot with live ammunition, detainees denied access to lawyers and medical care, and journalists, students, women, and minority communities deliberately targeted. Internet shutdowns and information blackouts have further concealed the full scale of abuses."

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/south-africa-voices-concern-over-iran-unrest-urges-parties-to-show-restraint/3800247 The SA government has finally made a statement about the Iran crackdown. Its days late but at least they said something " South Africa said on Thursday it was monitoring the protests in Iran with concern, urging all parties to exercise “maximum” restraint. “Sustainable peace and stability can only be achieved through solutions that center the agency of the Iranian people,” a Foreign Ministry statement said. Pretoria called on Iranian authorities to guarantee citizens’ right to peaceful protest, responding to “concerning” reports of unrest and fatalities. The ministry stressed that South Africa considers the rights to peaceful protest, freedom of expression, and freedom of association as universal human rights that “must be upheld without exception.”

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2026/01/iran-massacre-of-protesters-demands-global-diplomatic-action-to-signal-an-end-to-impunity/ As predicted Iran has unleashed the full might of its security forces to crush the protests, total deaths are anything from 3k-10k but because of the Internet and information blackout we will never know total deaths And as expected South Africa has a completely inconsistent stance on this latest crackdown. We have failed to unequivocally condemn Iran, there is a deafening silence around what should be the foundation of our foreign policy According to our foreign affairs our foreign policy decisions are based on "human rights and Constitutionalism " So the reason we took a position on countries like Venezuela and Israel is because of this And yet its amazing listening to the mental gymnastics of some people on talk-shows trying to justify why we cant condemn whats happening in Iran, the excuses range from " we shouldn't get involved in the affairs of other countries " to " but Iran is just trying to survive and they have a siege mentality because of years of Western sanctions " None of that matters if the foundation of your foreign policy decisions is based on human rights The DA has demanded that the ANC take Iran to the UN Human Rights Council but I doubt we will see that happening. That type of outrage and global action only applies to Western countries or Israel and BRICS countries get a pass when they flagrantly and egregiously ignore human rights https://www.polity.org.za/article/da-asks-lamola-to-report-iran-for-human-rights-abuses-2026-01-14 "In a letter written to Lamola, the DA said the use of blatantly deadly oppression against civilians by a sitting government is one of the “most egregious forms of human rights abuse witnessed anywhere in the world” with the party questioning South Africa’s relationship with the country. DA spokesperson on International Relations and Cooperation Ryan Smith said the principles of freedom, democracy and human rights enshrined in the South African Constitution compels Lamola to execute his sworn duty, as the custodian of the country’s foreign policy, to protect global citizens against autocratic regimes. Smith said the UNHRC was the “ideal” international forum where South African foreign policy, rooted in the Constitution, could find expression on the international stage. He said as a member of the Government of National Unity (GNU), the DA would not tolerate South Africa “turning a blind eye to brutal authoritarian regimes at the African National Congress’s (ANC’s) behest”.

I had a chat with some of my family last night about this and they agree with you and @Lexx They also support what the Clintons are doing because they believe its just a way to create a distraction from Trumps involvement so the entire inquiry is insincere

Maybe but end of the day isnt it better for Bill Clinton to clarify why Epstein visited him in the WH 17 times and why he flew on Epstein's private plane 27 times? https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/bill-hillary-clinton-refuse-testify-house-epstein-probe-2026-01-13/ I dont think Clinton is guilty of anything but is it really unreasonable to expect him to answer questions? Even if it is a witch-hunt they cant charge him with something he didnt do And these same questions should be asked to everyone, including Trump Thats what this whole thing is suppose to be about, getting clarity on what people did or didnt know

I see the Clintons have refused to testify, I wonder why? I have read all there legal reasons but its not very convincing considering all the attention on Epstein https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/13/bill-hillary-clinton-epstein-investigation

It depends on what you mean by "dangers" and how it impacts you on the geopolitical level and also what specific dangers you concerned about that Trump has created We were living in a world already where countries like Russia can illegally annex parts of other countries and invade countries and yet the world still continues If you just very disappointed with the US under Trump thats understandable and especially if you a supporter of the US and what defines Democracy But if you can be more specific that would be helpful?

You definitely should see cheaper coffee These types of trade deals have a bad reputation because they sometimes dont include protectionism for local industries. For example when South Africa joined BRICS we were told it was going to create this " massive " benefit for our economy but because there have never been any clauses or ideas around how to protect our local industries its ended up with a R253 billion trade deficit with BRICS that is only increasing https://dailyinvestor.com/south-africa/93948/sa-has-a-trade-surplus-of-r37-billion-with-the-us-and-a-trade-deficit-of-r253-billion-with-brics/ But you can see how this Mercosur\EU deal has some clever safeguards built into the agreement and this is how these types of trade deals need to be created " Europe worked hard to reach consensus on how to assuage doubts from European farmers about any negative impacts on their livelihoods. The additional measures added to the deal include “safeguards” for sensitive agricultural sectors, such as poultry, beef, eggs, citrus, and sugar, which would “suspend tariff preferences” in the case of “serious injury” to EU farmers. Serious injury is defined as an increase in import volume or a decrease in prices by more than 8 percent compared to the three-year average. The European Commission also introduced a slew of regular monitoring instruments, which will have to report to the European Council and European Parliament for increased accountability on enforcement. The Commission will be able to suspend imports from Mercosur in sensitive sectors if it deems this to be necessary. The final concessions agreed this week to bring Italy on board also include a revision to the 2028-2034 EU budget to allow farmers early access to roughly €45 billion in subsidies, as well as lowering import duties on fertilizers, the unaffordability of which was a major sticking point for protesters."

Yes, its good that the EU doesnt rely on the US or China too much and these trade deals are a good step in that direction And if you read the link there is protection around safeguards for EU farmers if cheap imported goods start hurting the domestic EU market

It doesn't matter, the Iranian hardliners will do the same thing they do in every protest where Iranian citizens want a better life and expect there government to respect human rights They shutdown the Internet so state atrocities are less visible, they will arrest thousands of people and execute many of them and they will kill dozens of people. The protests will be crushed as usual using maximum force Then after several weeks it will go back to the normal BRICS and Iranian state media propaganda " Iran is a country that respects human rights and believes in peace " The normal story sadly repeated every few years in the repressive reality of Iran under its current leadership

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/eu-and-mercosur-are-creating-one-of-the-worlds-largest-free-trade-areas/#:~:text=The agreement removes most Mercosur,percent) will also be removed. I see the Mercosur\EU trade deal has finally been implemented It has enormous trade potential for both the EU and the South American countries involved I understand the concerns about cheap goods but reduced tariffs can help both sides @Lexx @Elerond @majestic @Gorgon @Gorgon and other EU members Any opinion, do you support it?

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article314223925.html Here is a link around how the Cubans failed to protect Maduro and why they were involved @rjshae you will also find this interesting

Yes it was common knowledge and reported on that 32 Cubans were killed, it hasn't featured much in South Africa coverage but its out there My interest is more what it means and why Maduro was using them. It was generally believed that Maduro always had the support of his own security forces. So why would you have foreign fighters as personal bodyguards if you trust your own military? I can just imagine the understandable outrage if our government was using foreign soldiers from any African country because all the questions would be " why dont you trust our own security forces" I believe the US had help from within the Venezuelan security forces, thats why the extraction was so easy. At least from an information gathering perspective We wont know until much later the full details And the movie about this is going to be very entertaining

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republican-leaders-push-back-trump-openness-military-greenland-rcna252814 As expected Republican Leaders in both the House and Senate have rejected suggestions that the US will invade Greenland and take it by military force. The likely option is the US will make an offer to buy Greenland and that will be decided by the people in Greenland through a referendum " Top Republicans on Capitol Hill, including leaders of the House and the Senate, are pushing back against President Donald Trump on Greenland, saying it would be inappropriate for the United States to use military force to take over the Arctic island. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said Tuesday night he did not think it would be “appropriate” for the U.S. to use military action to acquire Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory controlled by Denmark, a founding member of NATO. On Wednesday morning, Johnson told reporters he did not think “anybody’s seriously considering that." Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., also rejected the idea, telling reporters Tuesday he does not see “military action being an option" in Greenland. “That, to me, is that’s not something that anybody is contemplating seriously at this point,” he said."