BruceVC

But here is the real problem, I dont think these other markets are as accessible or a realistic alternative to the US for several reasons To create new markets you need 3 main things you need functional supply chains you need a trade agreement you need a country that can buy your goods and can absorb what the US buys China is an export driven economy, its the second largest global economy and twice they have been subjected to US tariffs from Trump and yet they still haven't found alternative export markets so they can bypass the US. Why would China continue to export to the US if they could export to other markets? The US is still Chinas biggest export market And then South Africa is part of BRICS and that includes Brazil and India and yet after 15 years we have a massive trade deficit, R270 billion, with BRICS because these countries also protect there own markets. But we have a R37 billion trade surplus with the USA Im not saying its a bad idea to find other markets outside the US, I wish South Africa could do it. Im saying its not that easy or realistic as you seem to think

Is China also a US vassal, they have agreed to 30% tariffs ? I assume it must be if the definition of a US vassal state is negotiating terms around the tariffs?

Just to be clear are you saying the EU should not have made trade concessions with the US like it did and just paid the 30% but it should have also done what you suggesting in this post. So basically a tariff war with the US because that is exactly what tariffs on GOP states would create? And where does the EU find new export markets because these examples seem to be about imports to the EU? Or when you mention Brazil and India do you mean they could replace the US as an export market

What do you think the EU should have done around these tariff negotiations? Is it better to not export to the US and then they dont have to agree to anything Trump says?

Im not concerned with Trump and what he thinks and says on Truth or what people say on SM . These tariffs could backfire on the USA because it could make inflation worse but we wont know that until 9-12 months But that will be a US self-inflicted problem created by Trump and these tariffs Im concerned with the economic reality of getting the best deal for South Africa around US tariffs. We face 30% tariffs so if can negotiate 15% tariffs like the EU or Japan that would be great So any country that can negotiate reduced tariff terms is better than the initial tariff terms

Its a good question and its an interesting one but its also very complex and nuanced because US debt is not the "simple " debt we know about. Like when anyone borrows from the IMF its easy to understand because the money is owed to the IMF Here is a good link that breaks down the US debt and how its structured https://www.pgpf.org/article/the-federal-government-has-borrowed-trillions-but-who-owns-all-that-debt/ Most of the US debt is owed to various domestic US institutions " At the end of December 2024, the nation’s gross debt totaled $36 trillion. Of that amount, $29 trillion, or 80 percent, was debt held by the public — representing cash borrowed from domestic and foreign investors. The remaining $7 trillion (20 percent) was intragovernmental debt, which simply records transactions between one part of the federal government and another. Domestic holdings of federal debt have increased notably over the past decade, rising from $7.0 trillion in December 2014 to $20.3 trillion at the end of December 2024. The Federal Reserve, which purchases and sells Treasury securities as a means to influence federal interest rates and the nation’s money supply, is the largest holder of such debt." So if the US " collapses " its greatest debt holders are itself So nothing can happen because the bigger problem would be its own collapse Im not sure if Im explaining it properly But that wouldnt be our concern, we all would be dealing with the massive global economic consequence of an economically failed USA. It would make the Great Depression seem like a picnic

I think Im not explaining my point properly or you not understanding it We must separate the objective and advantages of any country exporting goods to the US and then agreeing to US tariffs from the other aspects of these agreements So for example like the Japanese agreement the EU has agreed to the following https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czxpdv5x54ko "It also means EU carmakers will face a 15% US import tax, rather than the 25% global tariff that was introduced in April. But in return the EU is "opening up their countries at zero tariff" to American exports, Trump said. EU steel and aluminium will also continue to face a 50% tariff when sold into the US. For Trump, still feeling the glow from last week's tariffs deal with Japan, the announcement marks another major victory. The EU deal brings with it the expectation of roughly $90bn (£67bn) of tariff revenue for US government coffers – based on last year's trade figures. As part of the agreement the EU will also buy US energy products and arms worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Trump said the EU would boost its investment in the US by $600bn, including American military equipment, and spend $750bn on energy. " Much of this is vague around specifics and you can call it a " bribe " which as I mentioned I wouldnt call it that. And then these other things still have to be negotiated with further supply chains and other contracts This could take years and Trump will be gone in 4 years so who knows if we will ever see " Trump said the EU would boost its investment in the US by $600bn, including American military equipment, and spend $750bn on energy" But tariffs on exports are something that happens almost immediately and is felt almost immediately. There is a massive difference between the EU facing 30% or 15 % So this is also a win for the EU because its primary objective is to continue to export to the US The other alternative to not agreeing to these tariffs is for the EU to find other export markets and ignore the US completely Thats something in South Africa some commentators think is an " obvious " solution to USA tariffs. We should just trade with BRICS or other African countries But obviously thats a solution because we have a trade deficit with BRICS and BRICS countries arent really interested in that changing because it undermines there own domestic economies and most African countries dont have the money to absorb our exports I think you putting much attention on Trumps childish and sensationalized comments around how these agreements are " wins " for him and how he is this incredible negotiator These agreements are fundamentally about one main thing for all the countries cutting deals, they want to export to the US because it benefits there local economies And the likes of China, Japan and the EU have succeeded in that endeavour

Are you just asking what if the amount of debt is so high the likes of the IMF cant provide the money? So if the US collapses how would the $36 trillion get paid back?

No I cant understand why people are getting so emotional about these tariff agreements? Its all about the benefits to be able to export to the USA because the USA has such a strong consumer driven economy China agreed to worse tariffs compared to the EU, China has 30% tariffs The main point is all these countries want to continue to export to the US because they know this benefits there economies Yes Trump is using the strength of the US domestic economy to pressure countries to agree but obviously it still benefits the likes of the EU, China or Japan or they wouldnt agree to these tariffs

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2xylk3d07o The EU had now also cut a tariff deal with the USA, 15% on most EU goods And the EU has committed to certain other trade agreements with the USA Both sides will benefit from this " Trump said the EU would boost its investment in the US by $600bn (£446bn), including American military equipment, and spend $750bn on energy. That investment over the next three years in American liquified natural gas, oil and nuclear fuels would, von der Leyen said, help reduce European reliance on Russian power sources. Some goods will not attract any tariffs, including aircraft and plane parts, certain chemicals and some agricultural products. A separate deal on semiconductors may be announced soon."

Does anyone remember this from 2020, somehow I doubt Trump and Bondi would be laughing at this now

Yes, I agree This deal wont benefit US car manufacturers by definition because imports provide alternatives to local goods And well priced imports now become competitive with locally produced goods But thats the nature of trade around exports and imports, its a balance and really a decision that consumers make Im sure none of us want to live in a country where you cant find any imported goods I buy EU imported cheeses all time, they obviously more expensive but you cant find the same type of cheese around taste in SA like Roquefort, Gorgonzola or UK mature Cheddar

I think I understand what you suggesting but here is better link around where and how the $500 billion from Japan will be invested and it raises legitimate concerns https://www.axios.com/2025/07/24/japan-trade-deal-trump-tariffs I do agree its uncertain and I can understand why anyone would think its a bribe but its also more complex and nuanced than that Firstly $500 billion is a huge amount if it is bribe, thats 14% of Japans GDP in 2024 End of the day Japan seems fine with this agreement and its because they know the benefit of access to the US markets Trump is not the reason the US is such a strong economy, this is an outcome of the decades of US economic growth and the overall success of its free market system But Trump can use this to his advantage and claim " wins " because countries want to export to the US so he can force transactional negotiations like with Japan and tariffs Thats the main point Im making, there was a general sentiment from many commentators that US tariffs wouldnt benefit the US or wouldn't be accepted by US trading partners But we not seeing that and every country that is significant seems to be folding and agreeing to some sort of deal that benefits the US China was suppose to be the best example of " standing up " to the US and Trumps tariffs but even they agreed to 30% tariffs and US exports to China are only 10% https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czx0ry7kdk5o

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/22/business/japan-trade-agreement-us Its not really a bribe, thats part of the negotiations in direct investment in the US. But they reached a trade agreement that benefits both countries. Japan will be charged 15% for exports into the USA This definitely benefits Japanese motor exports "The deal will see US importers pay 15% “reciprocal” tariffs on Japanese goods exported to the United States. But importantly for Japan, the 15% rate will also extend to automobiles and car parts - putting it at an advantage over other major vehicle exporters, which have faced a 25% levy on automotive sector exports since April. " Its interesting how Trump has been able to get countries to agree to these types of transactional trade terms and this is because of the strength of the USA economy and its buying power So we shouldnt use words like " vassals" because its about economics and if there were other export markets that could absorb the USA buying power countries would be using them It reminds me of our South Africa trade imbalance with BRICS, we have a trade deficit with BRICS of R230 billion and a trade surplus of R37 billion with the USA And yet now we facing US tariffs people are saying " lets just use BRICS to trade, we dont need the USA" But BRICS isnt buying our goods as much as they selling\dumping goods on us So BRICS is clearly not going to replace the USA as an export market But the main point Im making is no one is being forced to export to the USA, any country can decide who they want to trade or export with. If you can find other export markets then use them and just ignore Trump and his tariffs?

I dont think Trump is personally implicated in under-age sex in the "Epstein Files" , he attended various Epstein parties like hundreds of other people and that doesn't mean everyone who went to one of these parties over the decades did anything wrong. As you mentioned Clinton also attended some of these parties But I do think people he knows and who are considered allies of him are in the files and thats why the DOJ has been flip-flopping on releasing the files It will be an embarrassment to Trumps presidency due to proximity and it will create lots of negative media attention But they clearly trying to create distractions, now its " Obama created the Russian hoax, forget the Epstein Files....we must prosecute Obama !!!" https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/gabbard-pushes-report-on-obama-and-russia-probe-as-trump-faces-pressure-over-epstein