Turkey shoots down russian jet

[Darkpriest]

Again, Chinese look in broader perspective than 2-5 years.... now the oil is dirt cheap, will it be in 5 years? 10 years?

 

Also Russia - China relationship is not super easy one...

Edited February 13, 2016 by Darkpriest

[Zoraptor]

Turks are formally attacking the SDF (Kurds&Friends) with artillery now, with no previous provocation (or 'provocation') as there was with the previous incidents. Probably the start of their anti ISIS operation by, er, attacking the people who have done most of the fighting against ISIS recently.

 

ronpaul_its_happening.gif

[BruceVC]

Guys I am sorry to ask what may sound like a silly question but why does no one seem to like Turkey?

[obyknven]

Guys I am sorry to ask what may sound like a silly question but why does no one seem to like Turkey?

Because secular democratic Kurds are much better than religious fanatics from Turkish government. 

http://youtu.be/80J0FCe69to

[Elerond]

Guys I am sorry to ask what may sound like a silly question but why does no one seem to like Turkey?

 

They haven't acted very likable way in last decade.

 

Like for example censoring and blocking social media platforms and apps.

Using violent methods to stop protests 

Jailing political opposition

Instigate violence against their minority population

Questionable actions when it comes to ISIS

etc.

[BruceVC]

 

Guys I am sorry to ask what may sound like a silly question but why does no one seem to like Turkey?

 

They haven't acted very likable way in last decade.

 

Like for example censoring and blocking social media platforms and apps.

Using violent methods to stop protests 

Jailing political opposition

Instigate violence against their minority population

Questionable actions when it comes to ISIS

etc.

 

Okay I suppose that makes sense....but if you exclude the last reason all those points apply to countries like Russia and China who seem to very popular on these forums to some members ?

[Elerond]

 

 

Guys I am sorry to ask what may sound like a silly question but why does no one seem to like Turkey?

 

They haven't acted very likable way in last decade.

 

Like for example censoring and blocking social media platforms and apps.

Using violent methods to stop protests 

Jailing political opposition

Instigate violence against their minority population

Questionable actions when it comes to ISIS

etc.

 

Okay I suppose that makes sense....but if you exclude the last reason all those points apply to countries like Russia and China who seem to very popular on these forums to some members ?

 

 

I would guess that is because they work as opposition for western politics and criticizes western leadership therefore they score points from those who don't like current western politics and decisions by western leaders for one reason or another. Where Turkey is seen as western puppet that just behaves badly, so they just score those negative points.

[BruceVC]

 

 

 

Guys I am sorry to ask what may sound like a silly question but why does no one seem to like Turkey?

 

They haven't acted very likable way in last decade.

 

Like for example censoring and blocking social media platforms and apps.

Using violent methods to stop protests 

Jailing political opposition

Instigate violence against their minority population

Questionable actions when it comes to ISIS

etc.

 

Okay I suppose that makes sense....but if you exclude the last reason all those points apply to countries like Russia and China who seem to very popular on these forums to some members ?

 

 

I would guess that is because they work as opposition for western politics and criticizes western leadership therefore they score points from those who don't like current western politics and decisions by western leaders for one reason or another. Where Turkey is seen as western puppet that just behaves badly, so they just score those negative points.

 

Yes good observation, I agree. People will align with Russia because its seen as " anti-western" and standing up to  " Western imperialism " 

[Rostere]

Saudi invading and getting their nose bloodied could be shrugged off with some Stern Words about Russia and Assad- nobody cares about dead Colombians and Pakistanis mercenaries, after all, and nobody likes Saudi (well, except Bruce) plus Obama has far more leeway for ignoring them given he's late 2nd term- but Turkey could easily lead to big escalation, there would be no article 5 protection theoretically but any Turkish attack on the airbase at Hmeimem and Russia would have to hit Turkey proper and at that point article 5 and who started it would go out the window and all bets are off.

 

So long as it stays in Syria I doubt it would escalate whatever happens, but neither Saudi nor Erdogan like being baulked at all, Erdogan in particular may make the above calculation and instead decide that he can safely escalate from behind NATO.

 

But nobody likes Turkey either. Unless the status quo is about to be overturned in a major way to the detriment of American and EU interests, Erdogan is hanging very loose and shouldn't count on NATO support. For all practical purposes, Turkey has entered the conflict as an aggressor and can't count on any NATO support.

 

But really, all they are going to do is bomb the Kurds, seriously, I don't believe they are going to attempt to do anything else in Syria.

[Zoraptor]

 

 

 

Guys I am sorry to ask what may sound like a silly question but why does no one seem to like Turkey?

 

They haven't acted very likable way in last decade.

 

Like for example censoring and blocking social media platforms and apps.

Using violent methods to stop protests 

Jailing political opposition

Instigate violence against their minority population

Questionable actions when it comes to ISIS

etc.

 

Okay I suppose that makes sense....but if you exclude the last reason all those points apply to countries like Russia and China who seem to very popular on these forums to some members ?

 

 

I would guess that is because they work as opposition for western politics and criticizes western leadership therefore they score points from those who don't like current western politics and decisions by western leaders for one reason or another. Where Turkey is seen as western puppet that just behaves badly, so they just score those negative points.

 

 

Does anyone support China? Can't recall anyone regularly doing that.

 

There isn't much dislike of Turkey, it's dislike of Erdogan/ AKP who happens to be its leader. That's different from, for example, the generalised dislike of Russia which is seated in old Anglo/ Euro orientalist stereotypes developed and actively nurtured since the time of Ivan the Righteous; that's a healthy dose of paranoia and propaganda leavened by hatred of anyone baulking strategic interests. Those were all in evidence even when that sot Yeltsin was in charge, and the west loved him. The view of Turkey has changed mostly over the past decade, up until then it was largely seen as a model for 'westernised' secular muslim nations- with problems such as an over powerful military (seen by some as a plus), bad relations with Greece/ Kurds and the Cyprus situation. The only one of those to go has been the powerful military, sadly replaced by monomaniacal neo-Ottomanism and religious conservatism; and those last two are far more dangerous to the outside than a military that might decide to coup.

 

Kind of ironic, but Erdogan clearly models himself on/ admires Putin.

[BruceVC]

 

 

 

 

Guys I am sorry to ask what may sound like a silly question but why does no one seem to like Turkey?

 

They haven't acted very likable way in last decade.

 

Like for example censoring and blocking social media platforms and apps.

Using violent methods to stop protests 

Jailing political opposition

Instigate violence against their minority population

Questionable actions when it comes to ISIS

etc.

 

Okay I suppose that makes sense....but if you exclude the last reason all those points apply to countries like Russia and China who seem to very popular on these forums to some members ?

 

 

I would guess that is because they work as opposition for western politics and criticizes western leadership therefore they score points from those who don't like current western politics and decisions by western leaders for one reason or another. Where Turkey is seen as western puppet that just behaves badly, so they just score those negative points.

 

 

Does anyone support China? Can't recall anyone regularly doing that.

 

There isn't much dislike of Turkey, it's dislike of Erdogan/ AKP who happens to be its leader. That's different from, for example, the generalised dislike of Russia which is seated in old Anglo/ Euro orientalist stereotypes developed and actively nurtured since the time of Ivan the Righteous; that's a healthy dose of paranoia and propaganda leavened by hatred of anyone baulking strategic interests. Those were all in evidence even when that sot Yeltsin was in charge, and the west loved him. The view of Turkey has changed mostly over the past decade, up until then it was largely seen as a model for 'westernised' secular muslim nations- with problems such as an over powerful military (seen by some as a plus), bad relations with Greece/ Kurds and the Cyprus situation. The only one of those to go has been the powerful military, sadly replaced by monomaniacal neo-Ottomanism and religious conservatism; and those last two are far more dangerous to the outside than a military that might decide to coup.

 

Kind of ironic, but Erdogan clearly models himself on/ admires Putin.

 

No thats not the issue the West has with Russia....thats the old concern

 

After the USSR collapsed Russia suffered due to Yeltsin and corruption ...yes Putin was needed to restore the balance

 

But its his paranoia that caused this issue...Georgia, Ukraine ....a distrust of NATO and a real belief in somehow restoring the Russian empire even if a country prefers the West

 

You can't just annex any country you want...sorry  

[Zoraptor]

 

 

But nobody likes Turkey either. [..]

 

But really, all they are going to do is bomb the Kurds, seriously, I don't believe they are going to attempt to do anything else in Syria.

 

 

As above, I think there's not any dislike of Turkey itself especially in NATO (not so much EU, who will never let them in), just its leadership. And when Erdogan is gone Turkey will remain, in its strategic position, and that will be the determining factor in any response. There's already been a war fought over that concern, it was just 150 years ago.

 

As for the second I hope you are right, but they seem tied to the Saudis who certainly give the impression- and indeed outright stated via their FM- that they are all in against Assad up to and including direct military intervention to remove him. Since there are now Saudi planes and troops in Turkey if it is a bluff it's a very, very believable bluff.

[Darkpriest]

Seems that Turks are shelling Kurds again.

 

Also:

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/saudi-fighter-jets-deployed-turkey-incirlik-base-160214045639093.html

 

This will end up ugly...

[Drowsy Emperor]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-sends-troops-and-fighter-jets-to-military-base-in-turkey-ahead-of-intervention-against-a6871611.html

 

Saudis sending troops and aircraft to turkish border air base to "fight ISIS" and remove Assad.

 

With Russia-Assad-Iran's forces stomping the rebels this is obviously a counter-measure so that the various terrorists groups the Saudis have been supporting don't get wiped out.

 

This thing is slowly but surely spiraling out of control. Only the Chinese need to send ground troops next and then the Americans and we've got the prelude to WW3.

Edited February 14, 2016 by Drowsy Emperor

[HoonDing]

Saudis couldn't fight themselves out of a wet paper bag.

[Drowsy Emperor]

Most of the troops will likely be mercenaries of some sort. The Saudis are ****ty troops but the US has been wringing their arm for decades to buy the best military gear available. So they have quite a bit tech wise.

 

Control of air space is going to be the key here. If they really want to support Al Nusra and the rest of them they have to do it in the same space that the Russians are using. Its the only way to swing the war the other way.

As its highly unlikely that the opposing air forces are just going to ignore each other while they pound on ground troops and positions they will (eventually) have to fight the Russians to get anywhere.

 

As the Saudis will use a NATO base in Turkey (one with tactical nuclear weapons btw) what they're probably hoping for is to do their "work" and run for (NATO) cover.

We'll see just how that goes for them.

[HoonDing]

Even the mercs they hire are getting their behinds kicked in Yemen.

 

Say what you want about Blackwater, at least they're effective.

[Drowsy Emperor]

I dunno, the wiki is a bit bizarre. It says they have 150 000 troops on the ground and only 81 casualties since March last year. So that's either the laziest war ever considering the weekly traffic casualty numbers of Monaco are probably higher than that, or the stats are bull****. 

 

*Original source of 150 000 is CNN quoting KSA officials so that's worth about as much a booger.

Edited February 14, 2016 by Drowsy Emperor

[BruceVC]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-sends-troops-and-fighter-jets-to-military-base-in-turkey-ahead-of-intervention-against-a6871611.html

 

Saudis sending troops and aircraft to turkish border air base to "fight ISIS" and remove Assad.

 

With Russia-Assad-Iran's forces stomping the rebels this is obviously a counter-measure so that the various terrorists groups the Saudis have been supporting don't get wiped out.

 

This thing is slowly but surely spiraling out of control. Only the Chinese need to send ground troops next and then the Americans and we've got the prelude to WW3.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-sends-troops-and-fighter-jets-to-military-base-in-turkey-ahead-of-intervention-against-a6871611.html

 

Saudis sending troops and aircraft to turkish border air base to "fight ISIS" and remove Assad.

 

With Russia-Assad-Iran's forces stomping the rebels this is obviously a counter-measure so that the various terrorists groups the Saudis have been supporting don't get wiped out.

 

This thing is slowly but surely spiraling out of control. Only the Chinese need to send ground troops next and then the Americans and we've got the prelude to WW3.

No dont be so dramatic....this is an interesting development but IMO not that bad

 

So firstly lets be honest...do we really care? I don't ...the ME should have been taken care of there own problems years ago. So the Saudi and the Turks attack ISIS ....good no Western troops have to die

 

The Russians and Assad now know not to bomb the " good rebels " and the Russians target ISIS ...good maybe ISIS is removed from Raqqa

 

ISIS is by the far the biggest concern to the region, I don't care if the Russian, Saudis or Turks remove them...I just don't want the West to have to do it

 

So what if the Russians and Saudi actually go to war...Russian will quickly subdue them. But there is NO way the West will go to war and start WW3 over such a pointless and benighted region as Syria....the West doesn't really care, why should they after all the effort and constant criticism

 

If Russia " wins " and Assad stays in power do we really care? I dont even know if the " good rebels " are good....let Assad run his broken country. His entire economy will be dysfunctional  and the country will  be a failed state

 

I really dont understand what Putin thinks is the benefit? People say " Russia has outmaneuvered the USA in Syria "  

 

Why do people think the USA cares if Russia ends the conflict. Maybe Putin is hoping if they end the war then the West will drop sanctions as then the Syrian refugees can go home which would be great

 

But why would  the refugees want to go home to Assad ....there will NO economic prospects under his rule 

 

I'm glad the Russians are involved but unless Assad resigns then the Russians will be left having to support a very unpopular leader who the West detests and this is understandably 

[Zoraptor]

I dunno, the wiki is a bit bizarre. It says they have 150 000 troops on the ground and only 81 casualties since March last year. So that's either the laziest war ever considering the weekly traffic casualty numbers of Monaco are probably higher than that, or the stats are bull****. 

 

*Original source of 150 000 is CNN quoting KSA officials so that's worth about as much a booger.

 

KSA's casualty numbers are rubbish. So is the 150k troops though, at least as combat troops. They may well have lost 81 soldiers but Saudi has a pretty byzantine organisation of its armed forces- a holdover from the times they had things like the army ordering SAMs with the explicit purpose of shooting down their own air force because two rival princes ran the two branches- where you have lots of little armies like the National Guard (better than regular army) and Border Guards (armed with Abrams and Bradleys...) as well as the regular army. The Border Guard in particular has taken a lot of casualties, fair bit more than 81 documented by itself, and been spectacularly incompetent.

 

Their aim in Syria would be to establish a safe zone for the rebels from where they could continue the war without getting spanked by air power, using an anti ISIS stance as an excuse. Ultimately they want a compliant leader in Damascus (seems unlikely at this point) or at least a 'sunnistan' of eastern Syria and western Iraq. If there's any good news it is that it may well only be Saudi, Turkey and the UAE involved with perhaps some transit via Jordan and they may back down if they don't get enough support.

 

Seems that Turks are shelling Kurds again.

 

They've been shelling government forces in Latakia the last two days as well, which really is about as far from ISIS as it's possible to get. Should be said that the Turks at least claim to be responding to fire, though it's pretty laughable that the Kurds and gov would both start randomly shelling Turkey on the same day- it's just a provocation to try and get article 5 activation for any retaliation.

[Darkpriest]

http://nextbigfuture.com/2016/02/turkey-and-saudi-arabia-could-send-tens.html

 

 

and on the less military related part, China-Iran ties grow stronger, and Syria and Iraq are important parts of the new Chinese Silk road, his would explain their increased activity recently as the conflict there makes their plans more difficult, especially if Assad would be removed, as Sauds and Turks would block China's plans in the region:

 

http://news.yahoo.com/first-silk-road-train-arrives-tehran-china-134703954.html

[Darkpriest]

Iran upgrading airforce: http://www.nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-middle-easts-nightmare-iran-buying-russias-lethal-su-30-15213

[Zoraptor]

I can think of plenty more nightmare scenarios than Iran buying Su30s, but maybe I just have a more active imagination than the article author.

 

Anyway, perhaps unsurprisingly it seems that Saudi has dialled back the imminent invasion talk, the "irreversible" decision to invade was apparently contingent on the US not only approving but agreeing to lead the invasion- or in other words, it was completely reversible based on public and political reaction plus Obama doing something he was never practically going to do. But they're going to hold military exercises with 350k troops and 20,000 (!) tanks etc. The rebels in north provincial Aleppo are done, with groups defecting to the government, Kurds and ISIS. They may hold on to the now pretty much irrelevant border crossing at Bab-al-Salame and the decent sized town of Azaz, but only if the kurds don't want to irritate Erdogan more. If the kurds want them gone, they'll be gone and it would take a proper Turkish intervention rather than random shelling to stop it.

[Zoraptor]

Ceasefire/ cessation of hostilities has unsurprisingly been honoured by no one at all. Almost certainly not going to be a resumption of talks next week either, just more talk of escalations like the Saudis giving the rebels MANPADs and Davutoglu saying that Russia is genociding turkmen.

[BruceVC]

http://nextbigfuture.com/2016/02/turkey-and-saudi-arabia-could-send-tens.html

 

 

and on the less military related part, China-Iran ties grow stronger, and Syria and Iraq are important parts of the new Chinese Silk road, his would explain their increased activity recently as the conflict there makes their plans more difficult, especially if Assad would be removed, as Sauds and Turks would block China's plans in the region:

 

http://news.yahoo.com/first-silk-road-train-arrives-tehran-china-134703954.html

Dark we sometimes have different views on some topics but I have always found you to be a interesting person to debate with, if someone asked me what your overall view on the West was I would say  

 

" you don't necessarily dislike the EU and other similar institutions but you question the overall positive and constructive impact the idea of Western ideology has had on the world " ?( is this accurate? )

 

Why I raise this is you seem to be in the distinctive group of people on this forum who generally are " anti-Western "...now this is fine of course and we must all be honest and debate what we feel is what we believe ..but I really like you so I have to ask this

 

Are you looking for an alternate system of global financial influence and or general military significance than what works in the world, like the power of the IMF, EU and USA? So for example why do you think Iran and China economic alliance  is in anyway  significant and  why do you think Russia's strategies in Syria is better than what the West has done?