Global Implications of the Ukraine Crisis

[Tagaziel]

I don't know why the cynicism.

Because it's an easy way to project an appearance of wisdom without actually being wise. "People are ****" is the easiest answer to give and is flexible enough to accommodate everything in life, from schoolyard bullies to politicians trying to find a solution to a crisis involving countries with populations totalling close to a billion souls.

 

It's also stupid, but that should be obvious.

[Mor]

He's not about to attack a properly armed and prepared NATO member.

and the second largest army in NATO, which is part of the Nuclear sharing program... So either Putin testing NATO resolve as you suggest or he readies himself to cries havoc! and let slip the dogs of war on Azerbaidjan. Which has several unique points of interest to Putin:

1. Like Georgia it hasn't joined the Russia led 'Eurasian Economic Union'.

2. Like Georgia it withdrew from Russia led 'Collective Security Treaty Organization'

3. Like Georgia it maintains a oil\gas pipeline connecting Turkey\Europe to Asia, circumventing Russia energy monopoly... on which Russia economy is very much dependent.

 

 

All this talk of isolation and sanctions is total baloney. All I've EVER seen sanctions do to autocrats is make them more powerful.

The problem with such approach, if anything you do will backfire then the only thing you can do is sit wait for the inevitable war..

 

Although I agree in part, and on that note: Why Vladimir Putin needs a poor, aggressive Russia "If you can’t improve people’s living standards, you can try to give them a sense of belonging to a great power" -- A nice article that covers how Putin rose to power, how he maintenance it, his strategy and why all the kids from Russia has this rhetoric of living in a besieged fortress by the west (which IMO was what meant by Markel comment about Putin being out of touch with reality, presumably she and Obama realized that no amount of resets will solve this)

 

 

Also Putin the rock critic:

 

 

 

 

Edited April 1, 2014 by Mor

[Agiel]

Nice to see oby is all humid about the prospect of glorious war. Good thing it's going to stay in his head.

 

This was a calculated gamble by Putin, where he can hold the threat of further annexation as a threat against a Ukraine that cannot respond and a US administration that takes its foreign policy plays from Bob the Builder.

 

He's not about to attack a properly armed and prepared NATO member. It's a test to see if the Turks close the Bosphorus. It's an easy response, but it would allow him to paint Russia as a victim to the Russian people, beset on all sides and with only Czar Putin to defend them.

 

All this talk of isolation and sanctions is total baloney. All I've EVER seen sanctions do to autocrats is make them more powerful.

 

On the bright side, these sanctions would force Putin into a position where he would have to spend almost North Korea percentages of his country's GDP if he wanted a conventional military (one that is already ailing, mind you) that meets the bare minimum of adequate force projection in Russia's sphere of influence. In addition, he may well see oil-rich nations of Central Asia fall to the orbit of the Chinese which could precipitate even more resounding economic problems in the long run.

[obyknven]

Nice to see oby is all humid about the prospect of glorious war. Good thing it's going to stay in his head.

 

He's not about to attack a properly armed and prepared NATO member.

 

 

I am sure - before WW2 people say similar thing.

 

http://youtu.be/-b1bjSTUFT4

But i can say about pattern  of Russian military thinking today. On our path to conquer of Europe is only Turkey stay, only they have strong army. If they fallen nobody save Europe from us,  in Europe only small US army (~ 60 000 ) can make tiny resistance, own European armies (exept friendly/neutral France) too laughable, some EU countries can even turn to our side even without fight.  We plan good old Blitzkrieg ( actually this is yet old Soviet plan ), US in this case just watch from own continent how arrogant Europe is fallen. It's what really Russia plan to do.

Sanctions?! Lol, we just take everything what we want by sword.

[sorophx]

(Also that not to say that Russia is going to continue to pursue this by other means or later time, until it solidify its hold up to Transnistria).

if by "solidify" you mean "annex". PMR is openly pro-Russian. they issue Russian passports to PMR citizens. they keep begging Russia to move more troops into PMR to keep Moldova off their backs. Putin only needs to openly say he has plans for that region, and it will be as good as done. I have friends from PMR and I am myself from there (family used to live there, left when the civil war broke out), and I can tell you with 100% certainty, the majority of people there not only are ethnic Russians, they consider themselves Russian through and through. 

[Mor]

To solidify as connecting all the dots in Putins recent imperialist interventions "peace keeping" campaign in the Black Sea region, starting with Moldova break away region, then Georgia and decimating its fleet, now Ukraine\Crimea and its fleet, and all that is left is to connect Crimea to the mainland through Eastren Ukraine and to PMR through south Ukraine..

 

EDIT:

Here this article explains the connection better:

 

 

What now?

In the wake of his success, there has been intense speculation about President Putin's future intentions. In his 18 March victory speech after the fall of Crimea, he laid out his underlying worldview. Russia's loss of power and status at the end of the Cold War in 1989 was a deliberate, generational humiliation at the hands of the West - and a reason for hatred and apprehension.

 

For the Russian president, Ukraine's strategic importance to Russia is the key issue. In Putin's view, Ukraine is the pivotal connector between East and West. Control of Ukraine means control of the Black Sea and unobstructed access to potentially sympathetic populations in central Europe and the Balkans - in nations such as Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Serbia - and the exercise of time honoured 'pan-slavism' with a view to greater integration. These strategic perspectives appear to have been largely lost to Western leaders.

...

Speculation has shifted to Moldova - and its adjacent, unrecognised Russian-speaking enclave of Transnistria or the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) - as the next test of Western resolve in the face of possible intervention by Putin. A potential justification or pretext for a Russian incursion here is the small self-declared republic's wish to become part of Russia and the disputed presence of a battalion of 400 Russian peace-keeping troops.

 

On 25 March, Russia announced the start of territorial defence exercises in Transnistria, which Moldovan sources described to IHS Jane's on the same day as of concern even if anticipated.

 

Although part of NATO and the EU, the Baltic States are the northern end of the Black Sea-Baltic space and are vulnerable. The disapproving tone of some Russian rhetoric suggests they exist under sufferance.

 

From the Russian Air Assault Division base at Pskov near the Latvian-Estonian border, forces could - from a near standing start - cut off Estonia from the rest of the EU in less than 40 minutes, according to a former Russian air assault division commander.

 

The same could be done along the 80 km Polish-Lithuanian border, which runs between Belarus and the Russian Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad. In both cases, one or all the Baltic States could be enclosed, controlled, and separated from the rest of Europe. In the Baltic, eastern Ukraine, and Moldova-Transnistria Russian military units are in place, available for further exploitation if President Putin so desires.

 

 

to move more troops into PMR to keep Moldova off their backs.

Btw are you sure that Moldova is the agitator here, and what do you think that more troops will achieve? would that solve your issues with Moldova, fix the economy(which is in Shambles because like in East-Ukraine it reliant on large soviet area industrial complexes), make you more self-sufficient i.e. anything but being Putins recent trophy. I understand that the idea of soviet empire is alluring to the "rednecks" among you but for some reason I keep seeing an image of Republican crowds, hyped by Obama Change slogan :/ Edited April 1, 2014 by Mor

[sorophx]

PMR is Imperial Russia's territory anyway, so Russia has a valid claim 

[Mor]

posted by mistake, please delete.

Edited April 1, 2014 by Mor

[Sarex]

If anyone is interested, documents from the Clinton administration era have been released. If anyone has any doubts about the CIA's involvement in Ukraine and the Kiev protests, they have only to look at the documents and see how they toppled Milosevic's regime. It's pretty much copy/paste between Serbia and Ukraine.

[BruceVC]

If anyone is interested, documents from the Clinton administration era have been released. If anyone has any doubts about the CIA's involvement in Ukraine and the Kiev protests, they have only to look at the documents and see how they toppled Milosevic's regime. It's pretty much copy/paste between Serbia and Ukraine.

 

Sure but we know regime change is sometimes necessary, like in the case of Milosevic. Its a question of " what is best for the region" and " what is the current regime in a particular country doing with its power, is it benefiting its citizens"

 

Of course sometimes we can't always effect regime change, but thats the political reality we live in.

 

[Malcador]

 

I don't know why the cynicism.

Because it's an easy way to project an appearance of wisdom without actually being wise. "People are ****" is the easiest answer to give and is flexible enough to accommodate everything in life, from schoolyard bullies to politicians trying to find a solution to a crisis involving countries with populations totalling close to a billion souls.

 

It's also stupid, but that should be obvious.

 

 

Seems people expect a lot from their preaching and ranting here.

[213374U]

LOL

[Tagaziel]

Seems people expect a lot from their preaching and ranting here.

Yeah, the cynics are almost unbearable.

[sorophx]

 

to move more troops into PMR to keep Moldova off their backs.

Btw are you sure that Moldova is the agitator here, and what do you think that more troops will achieve?

oh, I live in Moldova, so I can tell you: Moldova is going crazy over the loss of PMR still, and if it had any military power it would surely use it to reclaim those territories. that's why Smirnov kept insisting on Russia left troops in PMR.

 

and one other thing: in Moldova, just like in Ukraine, nationalism is on the rise. people keep shouting about getting rid of Russian language, and Russian minorities. has been going on since the fall of the Soviet Union. so if they do somehow get PMR back, people there will suffer most surely. it's not as violent as in Ukraine yet, Moldovans are more mellow, but a push from Romania could get things going in an ugly direction, because all the talk is about joining the EU and/or Romania

[Sarex]

Sure but we know regime change is sometimes necessary, like in the case of Milosevic. Its a question of " what is best for the region" and " what is the current regime in a particular country doing with its power, is it benefiting its citizens"

 

Of course sometimes we can't always effect regime change, but thats the political reality we live in.

 

Bruce why must you always spout nonsense? What do you know about Milosevic? Why was he bad? After his fall, the next regime robed my country blind, they privatized all the national equities and funneled all the money out of the country, not to mention the debt my country has now. They got rid of him because he wasn't doing what Clinton and Blair asked from him and after the war his regime was sufficiently weakened to be forcefully toppled. He was not bad for this country, though he was bad for the interests of the west.

 

"Its a question of " what is best for the region" and " what is the current regime in a particular country doing with its power, is it benefiting its citizens""

 

Like in Iraq and Egypt and Syria? I won't even mention the CIA trained death squads that exist to keep countries destabilized.

 

I swear dude, you just keep putting your foot in your mouth.

[Malcador]

 

Seems people expect a lot from their preaching and ranting here.

Yeah, the cynics are almost unbearable.

 

Well one's sensitivities are one's own. Not even seeing anyone being very cynical or anything, most are realistic about the situation.

The rest has been a Serb-Croat argument, oby's usual production and Mor campaigning as if anything is achieved here. I think someone mentioned this thread just being people arguing past each other.

 

And nothing wrong with being cynical, mind you, the reaction you describe is pretty much is the best one when one is confronted with things beyond their control as not everyone is going to heed the call to crusade.

[Walsingham]

LOL at comments about the CIA.

 

What possible difference does it make WHO conducted the protests? It could be the ghost of Saddam Hussein. It could be Hercule Poirot. It could be the FSB. It could even be the CIA. because yes, they get paid to do stuff like that.

 

The _outcome_ has been the embrassment of the US and Europe, coupled with Russian annexation of strategically vital territory.

 

So if it was the CIA then you chaps should be getting warm and fuzzy feelings, because not only can you feed your paranoid world views, but the CIA are bloody morons.

[Sarex]

LOL at comments about the CIA.

 

What possible difference does it make WHO conducted the protests? It could be the ghost of Saddam Hussein. It could be Hercule Poirot. It could be the FSB. It could even be the CIA. because yes, they get paid to do stuff like that.

 

The _outcome_ has been the embrassment of the US and Europe, coupled with Russian annexation of strategically vital territory.

 

So if it was the CIA then you chaps should be getting warm and fuzzy feelings, because not only can you feed your paranoid world views, but the CIA are bloody morons.

 

Because you are a genus who would have done everything 100 times better, right? Must be easy for you, toppling governments and predicting the actions of superpowers.

[BruceVC]

 

Sure but we know regime change is sometimes necessary, like in the case of Milosevic. Its a question of " what is best for the region" and " what is the current regime in a particular country doing with its power, is it benefiting its citizens"

 

Of course sometimes we can't always effect regime change, but thats the political reality we live in.

 

Bruce why must you always spout nonsense? What do you know about Milosevic? Why was he bad? After his fall, the next regime robed my country blind, they privatized all the national equities and funneled all the money out of the country, not to mention the debt my country has now. They got rid of him because he wasn't doing what Clinton and Blair asked from him and after the war his regime was sufficiently weakened to be forcefully toppled. He was not bad for this country, though he was bad for the interests of the west.

 

"Its a question of " what is best for the region" and " what is the current regime in a particular country doing with its power, is it benefiting its citizens""

 

Like in Iraq and Egypt and Syria? I won't even mention the CIA trained death squads that exist to keep countries destabilized.

 

I swear dude, you just keep putting your foot in your mouth.

 

 

Sorry Sarex but its irrelevant how many times you say things like " Serbia was the victim in the Bosnian war "  and "Milosevic was a great and benevolent ruler " the facts don't change. We are not going to rehash again the rise and fall of Milosevic or NATO involvement in the Bosnian war. You have explained your view and I'm not going to try to change it, all you need to know and realize is that there are many people who support what NATO did in the Bosnian war and think there involvement was justified in bringing Milosevic to the Hague to face criminal charges

 

So you won't get much sympathy when you try to  compare what happened in Ukraine to the "unfair treatment of Milosevic"

 

[213374U]

So you won't get much sympathy when you try to  compare what happened in Ukraine to the "unfair treatment of Milosevic"

 

More sympathy than your hypocritical reassurances that toppling governments is "what is best for the region" when the West does it, interspaced with cries of bloody murder when it's anyone else, that's for sure.

[Walsingham]

 

LOL at comments about the CIA.

 

What possible difference does it make WHO conducted the protests? It could be the ghost of Saddam Hussein. It could be Hercule Poirot. It could be the FSB. It could even be the CIA. because yes, they get paid to do stuff like that.

 

The _outcome_ has been the embrassment of the US and Europe, coupled with Russian annexation of strategically vital territory.

 

So if it was the CIA then you chaps should be getting warm and fuzzy feelings, because not only can you feed your paranoid world views, but the CIA are bloody morons.

 

Because you are a genus who would have done everything 100 times better, right? Must be easy for you, toppling governments and predicting the actions of superpowers.

 

 

Triggering a crisis that burned for MONTHS, but failing to prep a response to Russian intervention? That's some professional quality thinking there.

 

You can't have it both ways, sport. Either they planned it, or they didn't. If they planned it, they didn't do a very good bloody job of planning.

 

 

It may just be this headcold, but I'm so utterly bored and tired of the internet and its shabby cornucopia of bull**** conspiracies.

 

If every allegation is believed, without a shred of proof, what is the point of the internet?

 

Believe everything, do nothing.

[Tagaziel]

And nothing wrong with being cynical, mind you, the reaction you describe is pretty much is the best one when one is confronted with things beyond their control as not everyone is going to heed the call to crusade.

I don't see anything wrong with being skeptical, but modern cynicism (which is distinctively different from awesome Greek cynicism) relies on reducing every human to either a self-interested **** or a self-interested **** with good camouflage skills. It's a corollary of my general distaste for the modern pessimism.

 

The _outcome_ has been the embrassment of the US and Europe, coupled with Russian annexation of strategically vital territory.

Was it? Even when you factor in the loss of Crimea, the EU has aligned Ukraine with the Union, Russian stock markets went down, capital flight rate over there has increased, prices are rising (food rose 25% from the start of the year), and Russia has confirmed its opinion as a hostile foreign power. The long term effects of the Ukrainian revolution are up to debate, but I don't consider it a failure of the West. Maybe it's the shining beacon of Polish statesmanship that's blinding me.

[Sarex]

Sorry Sarex but its irrelevant how many times you say things like " Serbia was the victim in the Bosnian war "  and "Milosevic was a great and benevolent ruler " the facts don't change. We are not going to rehash again the rise and fall of Milosevic or NATO involvement in the Bosnian war. You have explained your view and I'm not going to try to change it, all you need to know and realize is that there are many people who support what NATO did in the Bosnian war and think there involvement was justified in bringing Milosevic to the Hague to face criminal charges

 

So you won't get much sympathy when you try to  compare what happened in Ukraine to the "unfair treatment of Milosevic"

 

Foot meet mouth again! The protests and the change of Milosevic regime happened after the war. He was good for our country, the standard of living was better then. So NATO has nothing to do with what I was talking about.

 

You are so ignorant, but you involve your self in every discussion. That is a really bad combination.

 

Triggering a crisis that burned for MONTHS, but failing to prep a response to Russian intervention? That's some professional quality thinking there.

 

You can't have it both ways, sport. Either they planned it, or they didn't. If they planned it, they didn't do a very good bloody job of planning.

 

 

It may just be this headcold, but I'm so utterly bored and tired of the internet and its shabby cornucopia of bull**** conspiracies.

 

If every allegation is believed, without a shred of proof, what is the point of the internet?

 

Believe everything, do nothing.

 

I didn't want it both ways. This time it blew up in their face. It's not the same as doing it to Serbia, which only has its self to look out for its interests and doing it to Ukraine which is tied to Russia. They tried it they mostly failed, they didn't lose anything expect a paltry amount of cash. If things keep going the way they are, they even gained west Ukraine as a puppet state.

Edited April 1, 2014 by Sarex

[Malcador]

I don't see anything wrong with being skeptical, but modern cynicism (which is distinctively different from awesome Greek cynicism) relies on reducing every human to either a self-interested **** or a self-interested **** with good camouflage skills. It's a corollary of my general distaste for the modern pessimism.

Pah, that's a good policy to assume everyone's self interested until they prove otherwise. Dog eat dog world out there and all

[Tagaziel]

Pah, that's a good policy to assume everyone's self interested until they prove otherwise. Dog eat dog world out there and all

I tend to stick with innocent until proven guilty. Certainly served me well.