Renewed unrest in Egypt

[Wrath of Dagon]

Here's the supposed inside story, the role of Hamas is mentioned as well : http://news.yahoo.com/disputes-between-morsi-military-led-egypt-coup-205809544.html

[Walsingham]

My analysis is that militants are keen to provoke Israel into acting unilaterally in Sinai, thereby forcing the Egyptian government to counter or look weak at a time when they cannot afford to do either.

 

I've got the creepy feeling I actually stole this notion from someone on here about 4 months ago. Can't remember who but felt I should own up.

[Agiel]

Some relevant articles with sort of contrasting opinions. While it may seem a bit callus of me, I put more stock in the latter one.

 

http://www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2013/07/04/hazem-kandil/the-end-of-islamism/

 

http://www.madamasr.com/content/sheep-and-infidels

Edited July 20, 2013 by Agiel

[Walsingham]

Some relevant articles with sort of contrasting opinions. While it may seem a bit callus of me, I put more stock in the latter one.

 

http://www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2013/07/04/hazem-kandil/the-end-of-islamism/

 

http://www.madamasr.com/content/sheep-and-infidels

 

I think it's grossly premature to say it's over. The key requirement for the Jifascists is just a supply of willing simple-minded young men, leavened by the occasional engineer and finger-pointer. their supply of both relies far more on human nature than politics. Fascism of all varieties isn't going away. It's like herpes.

[Rostere]

So apparently there's a massacre going on in Cairo when the government cracks down on pro-Mursi supporters.

 

A moment ago I saw a figure of ~150 dead, now it's 278.

 

Pictures: http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/2013/08/2013814142336191647.html

 

Reporters at the scene: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/08/20138141715620312.html

[pmp10]

Was bound to happen with the Muslim Brotherhood sit-in going unresolved.

Now we will see if military keeps a lid on things or if a insurgency develops.

I doubt a full-scale civil-war is in the cards this soon.

[Walsingham]

So apparently there's a massacre going on in Cairo when the government cracks down on pro-Mursi supporters.

 

A moment ago I saw a figure of ~150 dead, now it's 278.

 

Pictures: http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/2013/08/2013814142336191647.html

 

Reporters at the scene: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/08/20138141715620312.html

 

I'm amazed at how long it took even the BBC to get on this story. I get RSS'd stories on Egypt regularly and the past four days ahve been manic.

 

This is NOT something provoked by the government. This was in response to escalating vanadalism and threatened violence.

 

At least as far as I know.

[Rostere]

Apparently ElBaradei and several other ministers have already resigned. There are also 40+ dead policemen. At least 17 churches have been attacked (presumably as a reprisal for the Coptic pope's initial siding with the interim government) and several have been torched.

[Walsingham]

Jebus. Am trying to imagine what would happen in the UK if we had 40 dead coppers.

[Calax]

Sounds like we'd be going to either a full scale civil war, or at least a powerful insurgency.

[Wrath of Dagon]

Can't find the original article I've read, but here's one with similar content, primarily this jumped out at me:

 

Political will

Go to hell (Ignore domestic and international criticism)

But keep important neighbours in the loop

No negotiations

Control the media

No ceasefire

Complete operational freedom

Promote young and able commanders

http://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/total-destruction-of-the-tamil-tigers-the-rare-victory-of-sri-lankas-long-war/

[Walsingham]

Can't find the original article I've read, but here's one with similar content, primarily this jumped out at me:

 

Political will

Go to hell (Ignore domestic and international criticism)

But keep important neighbours in the loop

No negotiations

Control the media

No ceasefire

Complete operational freedom

Promote young and able commanders

http://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/total-destruction-of-the-tamil-tigers-the-rare-victory-of-sri-lankas-long-war/

 

 

I have a friend with a more than passing connection to Sri Lanka. He was emphatic that the last offensive was tantamount to a walking barrage/ kesselschlact. It was a slaughter involving many thousands of innocents [his view].

 

He said to me when it was going on that it was only a matter of time before people started copying it. I was utterly disbelieving, given what he told me.

 

Then you show up with a copy of a highstreet newspaper saying just that.

[BruceVC]

I don't support the level of violence that the current Egyptian government is using but the Muslim Brotherhood is not some harmless group that are the complete victims in this. We have seen, and as mentioned, they have attacked churches and police stations and they are doing everything in there power to ensure that there camps of protest are not removed. This means attacking the Egyptian security forces, it should be no surprise to anyone that causalities are high. I would expect this considering the circumstances

[Walsingham]

What concerns me is that casualties are too high to resolve trhough reconciliation, but too low to attrit the Brotherhood's total manpower. Worst of both worlds.

 

Thought: presumably what you'd want woudl be some sort of industrial grade irritant factory on a trailer, which could turn household waste into some grud awful smoke. Park that upwind of the site and turn it on.

[BruceVC]

 

 

Thought: presumably what you'd want woudl be some sort of industrial grade irritant factory on a trailer, which could turn household waste into some grud awful smoke. Park that upwind of the site and turn it on.

That would work actually but I suppose this is about complete civil disobedience and the protesters would just move to areas where the smoke wouldn't effect them?

[pmp10]

Thought: presumably what you'd want woudl be some sort of industrial grade irritant factory on a trailer, which could turn household waste into some grud awful smoke. Park that upwind of the site and turn it on.

If the military wanted to solve this bloodlessly they would have.

This was a deliberate show of strength on part of the new regime.

In all likelihood this means they are hoping for some insurgency or even a uprising to happen just so they could crush it.

 

If their position is really that strong they are under no danger of losing to MB.

That means that the only question left is who will be the new Mubarak.

Edited August 15, 2013 by pmp10

[BruceVC]

 

Thought: presumably what you'd want woudl be some sort of industrial grade irritant factory on a trailer, which could turn household waste into some grud awful smoke. Park that upwind of the site and turn it on.

If the military wanted to solve this bloodlessly they would have.

This was a deliberate show of strength on part of the new regime.

In all likelihood this means they are hoping for some insurgency or even a uprising to happen just so they could crush it.

 

If their position is really that strong they are under no danger of losing to MB.

That means that the only question left is who will be the new Mubarak.

 

 

I dispute that this could be solved without bloodshed.

 

Only by releasing Morsi and by allowing him to be reinstated as president would his supporters be satisfied. The Egyptian military won't allow this so I believe there will be bloodshed. The question is how much and how heavy handed the Egyptian military will be

[Walsingham]

I have to agree with Bruce. How in the name of ungodly funt would you resolve this peacefully?

 

Step up and tell us: what combination of tactics, skills, and equipment would you use? I only ask since you're so sure. 

Edited August 15, 2013 by Walsingham

[pmp10]

I have to agree with Bruce. How in the name of ungodly funt would you resolve this peacefully?

 

Step up and tell us: what combination of tactics, skills, and equipment would you use? I only ask since you're so sure.

For starters you could just move-in while Ramadan was celebrated and use tear gas.

Or surround the place and deny water.

Or use nasty chemicals like you yourself suggested.

Or not let them assemble in those numbers in the first place.

In the end it doesn't matter because this situation is greatly beneficial to the military.

All the international condemnation won't came even close to the benefit of this 'shock and awe'.

[BruceVC]

 

I have to agree with Bruce. How in the name of ungodly funt would you resolve this peacefully?

 

Step up and tell us: what combination of tactics, skills, and equipment would you use? I only ask since you're so sure.

For starters you could just move-in while Ramadan was celebrated and use tear gas.

Or surround the place and deny water.

Or use nasty chemicals like you yourself suggested.

Or not let them assemble in those numbers in the first place.

In the end it doesn't matter because this situation is greatly beneficial to the military.

All the international condemnation won't came even close to the benefit of this 'shock and awe'.

 

 

You have raised some good strategies but I don't think this current situation is viable for the military at all. They have received serious international criticism and more importantly I think they underestimated the level of violent insurrection. They now face the possibility of conflict with hundreds of thousand of Muslim Brotherhood supporters, I can't think how any government would be seeing this as something they planned or wanted?

[Walsingham]

I used the example of the gennie to trigger exactly that suggestion.

 

Teargas doesn't peacefully disperse people, and it causes a massive disturbance to surrounding areas.

 

I don't mean to get aggressive, but you need to read a few accounts of first world crod policing to understand how ****ing difficult it is. I interviewed a police sergeant who told me that the most frightening thing he ever saw - and this across a career involving dismemberments and armed robberies - was a football crowd. And that's an unarmed British football crowd.

 

Seriously. Dig around a bit and have a read of some first hand accounts of the kidn of crowds we're discussing. You may not agree with me at the end, but I guarantee you won't feel the same way afterwards.

[Malcador]

Jebus. Am trying to imagine what would happen in the UK if we had 40 dead coppers.

A lot of fancy funerals ?

[BruceVC]

 

Jebus. Am trying to imagine what would happen in the UK if we had 40 dead coppers.

A lot of fancy funerals ?

 

 

Malc think of it this way, in Canada the police probably use highly trained Moose instead of dogs or horse. Imagine the anger if those Moose were killed?

 

I used the example of the gennie to trigger exactly that suggestion.

 

Teargas doesn't peacefully disperse people, and it causes a massive disturbance to surrounding areas.

 

I don't mean to get aggressive, but you need to read a few accounts of first world crod policing to understand how ****ing difficult it is. I interviewed a police sergeant who told me that the most frightening thing he ever saw - and this across a career involving dismemberments and armed robberies - was a football crowd. And that's an unarmed British football crowd.

 

Seriously. Dig around a bit and have a read of some first hand accounts of the kidn of crowds we're discussing. You may not agree with me at the end, but I guarantee you won't feel the same way afterwards.

 

Agreed, in South Africa we have major issues with the Police trying to control large amounts of very angry and violent protesters during the seasons of strikes. Only last year the Police killed 30 or so miners in Marikana, a mining area, when they were attacked by thousands of armed and belligerent miners.

 

The police were blamed for being heavy handed and suddenly the miners became the victims. Despite the fact they had killed some Police officers in the days leading to this protest. Its very hard to stay calm and deal with large and dangerous mobs of people screaming at you, I am never surprised by casualties

Edited August 15, 2013 by BruceVC

[Rostere]

 

I have to agree with Bruce. How in the name of ungodly funt would you resolve this peacefully?

 

Step up and tell us: what combination of tactics, skills, and equipment would you use? I only ask since you're so sure.

For starters you could just move-in while Ramadan was celebrated and use tear gas.

Or surround the place and deny water.

Or use nasty chemicals like you yourself suggested.

Or not let them assemble in those numbers in the first place.

In the end it doesn't matter because this situation is greatly beneficial to the military.

All the international condemnation won't came even close to the benefit of this 'shock and awe'.

 

 

To be honest, I think clearing out that crowd was a very hard task. There are few, if any, completely non-violent methods which could have succeded.

 

On the other hand, they could perhaps have negotiated better with Muhammad Mursi. I only know that they've "held negotiations", not what they have offered the leadership of the MB.

 

Let's not forget, even if they chose to represent only themselves instead of the entire Egyptian people when in power, Mohammed Mursi is the legitimate president of Egypt.

[Malcador]

Malc think of it this way, in Canada the police probably use highly trained Moose instead of dogs or horse. Imagine the anger if those Moose were killed?

Nah, cops here tend to die in car accidents. Though 4 did buy it just walking up to a house with an armed nutter in it. Brave sons of the Confederation, all. Anyway, an aside from the situation.