Renewed unrest in Egypt

[Calax]

They're all of Morsi so *shrugs*.

 

And it sounds ilke Egypt is starting to lose control a wee bit.

[Rostere]

It appears the Egyptian secular revolutionary "Tamarod" movement has inspired others to follow suit: http://stream.aljazeera.com/story/201307082347-0022890

[Gorth]

Normally I would applaud a movement that seeks secular values, enlightenment, education etc.

 

I just worry that people are flocking to it because it is *a* cause, not because of *the* cause itself.

[Walsingham]

I agree with Gorth. I don't feel Tamarod is a mass movement. It's just manipulated the media to make it look like one.

[Rostere]

Well, it IS not a mass movement (considered it started for real just some weeks ago), but it might have potential to end up one.

 

I think it's a double-edged sword. It is critical of mismanagement by inexperienced Islamists in power but also way to keen on using the (oh always so secular) military to push their will through. The fragile democracies in the Middle East might revert back to military dictatorships again

[Walsingham]

I'm just not sure what anyone can do in a country with such weak economic foundations. I mean, what can you do, really?

 

If you Tropico'd up, what would you do?

[Rostere]

I'm just not sure what anyone can do in a country with such weak economic foundations. I mean, what can you do, really?

 

If you Tropico'd up, what would you do?

 

Just look at Burma. I don't know if you're interested in SE Asia from an investor's perspective but that country has seen a stellar rise recently. I remember a few years ago I was at an demonstration in support of Burmese monks calling for democracy. Today, their future looks brighter than ever and full democracy seems only a question of time.

 

To be honest I think it's a bit of a unspoken criterion to be "non-Muslim" to be a viable country for investment today. Our commonly held prejudiced stereotype of Asians is that they are orderly and hard-working, albeit not very independent. On the other hand, prejudices against Muslims dictate that they are angry and constantly bickering without really any positive traits at all. If investors are worried the target country will be prone to tearing itself up in civil war over whether or not women should necessarily be dressed up as walking cabbage rolls, they will not give their support easily. Since extremist movements strengthen from poverty, this is sadly a self-fullfilling prejudice.

 

Believe me, "former dictatorship transitioning towards democracy open to Western businesses and investment" is a magic concept. You'll be the ass-end of nowhere in one second, and the center of attention for global investors and outsourcing the other. Just like Burma.

[BruceVC]

 

I'm just not sure what anyone can do in a country with such weak economic foundations. I mean, what can you do, really?

 

If you Tropico'd up, what would you do?

 

 

 

Believe me, "former dictatorship transitioning towards democracy open to Western businesses and investment" is a magic concept. You'll be the ass-end of nowhere in one second, and the center of attention for global investors and outsourcing the other. Just like Burma.

 

 

Sure but Burma has made concrete and definitive moves towards Democratic changes and they should be rewarded.

 

Also investors and analysts generally don't say "investing in Muslim countries is risky" as there are Muslim countries like Malaysia and Indonesia that offer excellent investment choices but they do say "investing in certain Middle East countries is risky at the moment" and I agree with that sentiment considering the tumultuous events we are witnessing due to the Arab spring and the political uncertainty we are seeing. Its the same view we see around certain African countries and what global corporations are prepared to commit to help build there economies.

 

[BruceVC]

 

Edited July 9, 2013 by BruceVC

[Walsingham]

The fundamental problem with the Mideast is the old curse of raw materials. In short they have bags of them. Making money doesn't require skills or organisation, just gaining corrupt control of the materials. Then selling them off.

 

Except for the bits of the mideast with no raw materials. Theirs is the old curse of being fecked.

[Gorgon]

The military stepped in and threw out the elected muslim brotherhood president, who by the way was also getting busy displacing if not eliminating his political enemies. Is that about right.

 

Maybe a military crackdown can pave the way for more conventional campaigning. Seems like a lot of people are anxious to exploit a state of unrest. Not saying that's what will happen.

[Rostere]

Sure but Burma has made concrete and definitive moves towards Democratic changes and they should be rewarded.

 

Also investors and analysts generally don't say "investing in Muslim countries is risky" as there are Muslim countries like Malaysia and Indonesia that offer excellent investment choices but they do say "investing in certain Middle East countries is risky at the moment" and I agree with that sentiment considering the tumultuous events we are witnessing due to the Arab spring and the political uncertainty we are seeing. Its the same view we see around certain African countries and what global corporations are prepared to commit to help build there economies.

 

Of course they should be rewarded. I did not mean to say the opposite!

 

And I don't think anyone at all says "investing in Muslim countries is risky" out loud. But I'm sure there are a lot of people who think that subconsciously, because of prejudices that exist.

 

In fact I do know very well that Malaysia and Indonesia are interesting fields of investment, and pretty established ones at that. But since they are not situated in the ME, people will not associate them with being Muslim. Indeed I think people first and foremost think they're Asian. Turkey is also an example of an interesting Muslim place to invest your savings in, even if that is about to change.

 

But really, several countries such as Libya, maybe Morocco and a few more really feel like potential for developing strong economies. Libya has a pretty modern government and the highest HDI in Africa, and an international school system with good English education. I'm sure they deserve more attention than they have got.

[BruceVC]

 

Sure but Burma has made concrete and definitive moves towards Democratic changes and they should be rewarded.

 

Also investors and analysts generally don't say "investing in Muslim countries is risky" as there are Muslim countries like Malaysia and Indonesia that offer excellent investment choices but they do say "investing in certain Middle East countries is risky at the moment" and I agree with that sentiment considering the tumultuous events we are witnessing due to the Arab spring and the political uncertainty we are seeing. Its the same view we see around certain African countries and what global corporations are prepared to commit to help build there economies.

 

 

 

But really, several countries such as Libya, maybe Morocco and a few more really feel like potential for developing strong economies. Libya has a pretty modern government and the highest HDI in Africa, and an international school system with good English education. I'm sure they deserve more attention than they have got.

 

 

Good points, I see what you mean

[Rostere]

I know it's old, but of course the Republicans want their say about this entire Muslim Brotherhood business.

 

EDIT: Maybe I should have posted it in the "funny things" thread.

Edited July 9, 2013 by Rostere

[Walsingham]

If you have those figures for development handy - and I assume you do or I wouldn't ask - could you post them or the source? Could be interesting to root around.

[Walsingham]

Update - from Stratfor:

 

Kuwait will give Egypt a $4 billion aid package, including a $2 billion central bank deposit, a $1 billion grant and $1 billion in oil products, KUNA reported July 10. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates pledged a combined $8 billion in financial aid July 9.

 

I guess that answers my earlierquestion about who they could get money from apart from the IMF.

[Meshugger]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23256937

 

Things are going swell :-/

Edited July 10, 2013 by Meshugger

[Walsingham]

I think it's particularly interesting that having risenon a revolutionary wave, they are now being dashed beneath.

 

Life in opposition was positively balmy compared to the storm they are weathering now.

[Rostere]

The military stepped in and threw out the elected muslim brotherhood president, who by the way was also getting busy displacing if not eliminating his political enemies. Is that about right.

 

Maybe a military crackdown can pave the way for more conventional campaigning. Seems like a lot of people are anxious to exploit a state of unrest. Not saying that's what will happen.

 

Not really, more like:

 

"The military stepped in and threw out the elected Muslim Brotherhood president, who had failed to address the country's economical problems and was busy writing a constitution which was too religiously conservative even for some who had voted for him"

 

He didn't specifically target any political enemies, but he was trying to shape the country into what he wanted himself without regard for consensus. But who knows, his partisan constitution would have laid the groundwork for delegitimizing political opinions later. For example, Israeli Basic law states that the country is "a state for the Jewish people". Parties or inidividual politicians who have explicitly argued that it should be a state for all it's citizens regardless of race/religion can face and has faced legal persecution and while thus far the judicial branch (withstanding a veritable ****storm from the extreme right) has prevented any action on this matter, it would considering that specific law be legal to prevent many of Israel's politicians from running for office. It's really a matter of interpretation, weighing different laws against each other, dependent on who is currently on the supreme court. The judicial branch is in Egypt dominated by "felool" or parts of the old Mubarak establishment. While they are not at all necessary supportive of his dictatorship they have made their career in a certain environment and are thus not likely to view favourably any blatantly Islamist laws, so even if Mursi would have wanted to persecute his political enemies he would have had to deal with them. From what I have seen and read they don't come along well at all with each other.

 

If you have those figures for development handy - and I assume you do or I wouldn't ask - could you post them or the source? Could be interesting to root around.

 

Sorry, I can't give you the entire act However, most relevant stuff can be found publicly on Wikipedia.

 

I'm even more impressed now that I read up on Libya there, apparently education used up 38% of the state's budget in 1998 under Khadaffi and in the mid-00s over 270000 out of a population of 5,6 million were enlisted in tertiary education. They seem to do better in those two regards than many Western countries.

[Walsingham]

That's cool, Rosti. I was just hoping you had something to hand other than the CIA factbook or whatever. I enjoy comparing sources.

 

I certainly accept your general point that many of these states are far from being basket cases. It's yet another reason I get very antsy about the jifs cycling in and bossing everyone around. They want everywhere to become (old) Afghanistan.

[Rostere]

Here's a very interesting video hopefully showcasing a future, more politically active generation in Egypt: http://www.upworthy.com/a-12-year-old-egyptian-boy-flabbergasts-an-interviewer-they-werent-expecting-a-political-genius-4

 

(I think it was filmed during the protests against Morsi)

[pmp10]

Apparently Egypt is cracking down on extremists smuggling into Gaza.

You'd think they have enough problems with MB protesters but now they are aiming to destabilize Hamas.

If they overreach we may indeed end up with a second Syria.

[Rostere]

Apparently Egypt is cracking down on extremists smuggling into Gaza.

You'd think they have enough problems with MB protesters but now they are aiming to destabilize Hamas.

If they overreach we may indeed end up with a second Syria.

 

In case you didn't know, Gaza is a tiny, tiny, speck on the map which is essentially a huge refugee camp. It is completely impossible to get through by air or water, the only way you might get through is through tunnels under the Egyptian border. The inhabitants of Gaza are about as powerless as you can get and the only things they get today (except for food aid, which Israel anyway limits so as to starve them out), they get because of laxity on the Egyptian side of the border.

 

If Egypt says they will make a crackdown on these smugglers (most of the smuggle food and construction materials BTW), all they are going to do is utilize intelligence they already have, send out a few policemen/soldiers in jeeps and blow up some tunnels. After that, they'll only have a few more guys on regular patrols and that's it.

 

So they are in no danger of overreaching at all, these days Hamas are about as harmless as you can get. The new President could completely block the flow of arms to Gaza with his left pinky without breaking a sweat.

[pmp10]

If Egypt says they will make a crackdown on these smugglers (most of the smuggle food and construction materials BTW), all they are going to do is utilize intelligence they already have, send out a few policemen/soldiers in jeeps and blow up some tunnels. After that, they'll only have a few more guys on regular patrols and that's it.

Israel just approved deployment of two more Egyptian battalions into Sinai.

This is much more than a few policemen making a PR show.

Whether they are there to stay is another matter.

 

So they are in no danger of overreaching at all, these days Hamas are about as harmless as you can get. The new President could completely block the flow of arms to Gaza with his left pinky without breaking a sweat.

No matter how insignificant Hamas has been recently they still rule just across the border.

Desperate people are always dangerous.

[Walsingham]

My analysis is that militants are keen to provoke Israel into acting unilaterally in Sinai, thereby forcing the Egyptian government to counter or look weak at a time when they cannot afford to do either.