Is $4M enough?

[Eternitude]

 

And that's good. A game should hopefully still make a big profit after all. If the majority is already backing, who's going to buy?

 

P:E selling well may even allow them to use their own money later, instead of needing kickstarter.

 

While I believe crowd funding has much more potential at providing significantly higher funding goals without requiring anywhere near the *majority* of end users as backers, these are really good points. You don't necessarily want too many backers, as that does cut into profit (assuming of course all the funds are used in development), and after a successful campaign or two the developer would probably have less need to use crowd funding. Both these factors would tend to limit crowd funding a bit...yes....good points.

[Veeno]

While I believe crowd funding has much more potential at providing significantly higher funding goals without requiring anywhere near the *majority* of end users as backers, these are really good points. You don't necessarily want too many backers, as that does cut into profit (assuming of course all the funds are used in development), and after a successful campaign or two the developer would probably have less need to use crowd funding. Both these factors would tend to limit crowd funding a bit...yes....good points.

 

And that's good. A game should hopefully still make a big profit after all. If the majority is already backing, who's going to buy?

 

Maybe no one (although there will almost certainly always be people who will either not back the project and later buy the game or both back it and buy it, as I know some PE backers have expressed the desire to), but so what? Then you do another Kickstarter for your next game. I don't see the issue, except that if you don't make good games people won't back your next project. It's the best way of direct content quality control by the consumers themselves.

[Eternitude]

Talking of which, I don't believe this game is going to be released in 2014. I trust Obsidian to get it done, but I think 1.5 years is optimistic given all the stretch features.

 

Part of "managing my expectations" that I spoke about in the OP has definitely led me to be resigned to the fact that this may take 2 years or more. I am *practicing* being happy that Obsidian won't have a publisher breathing down their backs to release the game before it's polished.

[Regenshire]

Video game budgets have increased at an incredible rate over the past decade:

 

· 1-4 mil 2000

· 5 mil in 2006

· 20m in 2010

 

 

You're a long way off. Fallout released in 1997 had a budget of 3m. BG2 would be at the very least 5m.

 

Not sure how 1-4 million average budget size is way off of 3 mil or 5 mil for specific titles (3 mil in that range, 5 million reasonably close, and I would like to see where you got that value for BG2 as I can't find it anywhere and I am very curious how much it actually cost to make). Those are just statistics for the average cost of making a video game in the listed year, not specific to genre or platform.

 

What I was primarily showing was how much budgets have skyrocketed in a 12 year period. Budgets have gone up for specific reasons, and it not due to inflation. I summarized some of the reasons why. PE doesn't have many of those items, and thus should be a lot cheaper then the current 'avg' game.

Edited October 19, 2012 by Regenshire

[Kyecthus]

Easy enough to break down potential expenses too. I imagine marketing will primarily be taken care of through trade publications, word of mouth, and obviously us as backers. Guessing that all the assets are either currently owned by Obsidian or produced by them, meaning a minimal amount of money needs to be spent acquiring outside assets. Voice overs for interchapter movies, ending, and intro (if they're even doing that) won't run that high. Probably can even use in-house talent.

 

Average programmer salary is maybe 70k just as a benchmark. Team consists of 20 people, so you're looking at roughly 1000 days of possible development. Given the fact they have toolsets, an engine, and an established development core, I think 18 months isn't that absurd of a goal, and even if they do go past that time, they have the extra capital.

 

70000\365*20 = $3835 dollars per day.

[Regenshire]

Easy enough to break down potential expenses too. I imagine marketing will primarily be taken care of through trade publications, word of mouth, and obviously us as backers. Guessing that all the assets are either currently owned by Obsidian or produced by them, meaning a minimal amount of money needs to be spent acquiring outside assets. Voice overs for interchapter movies, ending, and intro (if they're even doing that) won't run that high. Probably can even use in-house talent.

 

Average programmer salary is maybe 70k just as a benchmark. Team consists of 20 people, so you're looking at roughly 1000 days of possible development. Given the fact they have toolsets, an engine, and an established development core, I think 18 months isn't that absurd of a goal, and even if they do go past that time, they have the extra capital.

 

70000\365*20 = $3835 dollars per day.

 

You would have to account for payroll taxes, benefits, tools, licensing fees, and other operational expenses to get a rough idea. An extreamly rough estimate would be at least $35k per person. With these very rough assumptions, you are looking at being able to support a 20 person team for a year and a half to two years without tapping into other funds.

[ValarMorghulis]

whether 4M is enough or not I do know that many others INCLUDING myself didn't find out about the Kickstarter until after it had already ended and I wish I could have contributed. I personally feel 4M is more than enough for them to build the project they want to build for us and that's enough peace of mind for me.

[C2B]

Maybe no one (although there will almost certainly always be people who will either not back the project and later buy the game or both back it and buy it, as I know some PE backers have expressed the desire to), but so what? Then you do another Kickstarter for your next game. I don't see the issue, except that if you don't make good games people won't back your next project. It's the best way of direct content quality control by the consumers themselves.

 

Holding the developer hostage? Seriously?

 

That's kinda the opposite of the kickstarter spirit. To *kickstart* something, an idea, a company, whatever. In Obsidian's case this is a great way to gain financial security and the possibility to keep people on after a project gets cancelled. The possibility of self-publishing doesn't just mean they are going to take it easy and suddenly have no passion. We backed them because they are passionate about what they are doing in the first place.

 

I'd really rather that Obsidian gets to be a stable company.

Edited October 19, 2012 by C2B

[FlintlockJazz]

You know what I have been wondering about: If the $4 million is before or after Kickstarter and Amazon have taken their cut. I mean, is the total on the Kickstarter all gone to Obsidian and if not did they remember to factor it in that they'll be having about 10% I believe taken off it?

[HungryHungryOuroboros]

You know what I have been wondering about: If the $4 million is before or after Kickstarter and Amazon have taken their cut. I mean, is the total on the Kickstarter all gone to Obsidian and if not did they remember to factor it in that they'll be having about 10% I believe taken off it?

$4.1 million is before Amazon/Kickstarter/Paypal take a cut, and before the cost of physical prizes.

 

Here's how Double Fine split up their $3.3 million.

[Kyecthus]

Easy enough to break down potential expenses too. I imagine marketing will primarily be taken care of through trade publications, word of mouth, and obviously us as backers. Guessing that all the assets are either currently owned by Obsidian or produced by them, meaning a minimal amount of money needs to be spent acquiring outside assets. Voice overs for interchapter movies, ending, and intro (if they're even doing that) won't run that high. Probably can even use in-house talent.

 

Average programmer salary is maybe 70k just as a benchmark. Team consists of 20 people, so you're looking at roughly 1000 days of possible development. Given the fact they have toolsets, an engine, and an established development core, I think 18 months isn't that absurd of a goal, and even if they do go past that time, they have the extra capital.

 

70000\365*20 = $3835 dollars per day.

 

You would have to account for payroll taxes, benefits, tools, licensing fees, and other operational expenses to get a rough idea. An extreamly rough estimate would be at least $35k per person. With these very rough assumptions, you are looking at being able to support a 20 person team for a year and a half to two years without tapping into other funds.

 

True. Really comes down to the breakdown of the team and the different roles as well. I mean a graphic artist or QA could be down near 50k. That's even if the full team is salaried or wholly dedicated to the one project. Most of the QA group probably overlaps with the South Park development. 35k a person seems a bit high of an estimate as well. I'd argue benefits average 15k.

 

Unity is what, like 1500 a license?

 

Either way, 4m is enough for an 18 month production period.

[Shadeling]

"Celebrity voice actors who cost way more than they're worth..."    

 

So true! I'd love to know just how much sales are affected for the Todd Howard era Elder with the big budget actors he has to hire. So much money paid to well known actors that the average gamer couldn't care less about. As long as the acting is good and believable, that's all that matters. I just really doubt that the celebrity marquee of a videogame matters all that much as far as sales go.

Just to be contrarian, I loved me some Patrick Stuart in Oblivion. Or Sean Bean for that matter. I`d definitely pay extra for high qualityvoice acting, but i agree it doesn't have it be a big name. If it is, it better be recognizable to be worth it.

 

Annd some AAA games like Skyrim are truly stellar. I think many peoplewill like both those and games like we hope PE will be.

 

You loved it? Really? Well, I probably shouldn't have made a broad claim that the average gamer couldn't care less about the celebrity names but I was drawing from my anecdotal experience and that the celebrity factor in a game just doesn't seem to resonate in the same way as it does for other mediums, like a Pixar movie. I think Patrick Stewart became my figurehead that represented everything that was wrong with Oblivion. At the very least, if it hasn't been for him and what I assume was a disgustingly large paycheck, Bethesda could have hired more actors to voice NPCs so at least there could have been one voice per NPC and not two, which was so often the case.

[Death Machine Miyagi]

Either way, 4m is enough for an 18 month production period.

 

Which raises the concern of what happens if that period comes to a close and the game needs to be delayed. The Kickstarter crowd almost certainly wants a finished game rather than an early release, but where do they get the funds to finance extra work, if its needed?

[Regenshire]

Easy enough to break down potential expenses too. I imagine marketing will primarily be taken care of through trade publications, word of mouth, and obviously us as backers. Guessing that all the assets are either currently owned by Obsidian or produced by them, meaning a minimal amount of money needs to be spent acquiring outside assets. Voice overs for interchapter movies, ending, and intro (if they're even doing that) won't run that high. Probably can even use in-house talent.

 

Average programmer salary is maybe 70k just as a benchmark. Team consists of 20 people, so you're looking at roughly 1000 days of possible development. Given the fact they have toolsets, an engine, and an established development core, I think 18 months isn't that absurd of a goal, and even if they do go past that time, they have the extra capital.

 

70000\365*20 = $3835 dollars per day.

 

You would have to account for payroll taxes, benefits, tools, licensing fees, and other operational expenses to get a rough idea. An extreamly rough estimate would be at least $35k per person. With these very rough assumptions, you are looking at being able to support a 20 person team for a year and a half to two years without tapping into other funds.

 

True. Really comes down to the breakdown of the team and the different roles as well. I mean a graphic artist or QA could be down near 50k. That's even if the full team is salaried or wholly dedicated to the one project. Most of the QA group probably overlaps with the South Park development. 35k a person seems a bit high of an estimate as well. I'd argue benefits average 15k.

 

Unity is what, like 1500 a license?

 

Either way, 4m is enough for an 18 month production period.

 

35k is probably high (always estimate high on expenses), but I think its defiantly above 20k per person. Health Insurance is probably going to between 10-15k per person if you assume many of them have family on their plans, and assuming they company is offering good health care benefits. 401k matching costs are going to depend on average salary level, but you are probably looking at 3k per person right there assuming a max 5% match, then payroll taxes, general office expenses, and misc project expenses.

 

Regardless, they should have enough for an 18 month project with 20 people.

[Veeno]

Holding the developer hostage? Seriously?

 

How the hell is that "holding the developer hostage"? What is "hostageous" about this situation?

 

You make good stuff -> you get more money and can make more good stuff.

 

You make bad stuff -> you don't get more money and can't keep making bad stuff.

 

It only seems fair to me, as opposed to the way most of the current gaming market operates where you can just keep making pretty much the same crap over and over - it's easier to persuade a bunch of people to buy your crap when it's done, but to persuade a bunch of people to invest in the crap you plan to make... that's darn near impossible (developers invest in crap because it sells, as I said - it's easier to persuade a bunch of people to buy your crap when it's done).

Edited October 19, 2012 by Veeno

[HungryHungryOuroboros]

Holding the developer hostage? Seriously?

 

How the hell is that "holding the developer hostage"? What is "hostageous" about this situation?

 

You make good stuff -> you get money and can make more good stuff.

 

You make bad stuff -> you don't get money and can't keep making bad stuff.

 

It only seems fair to me, as opposed to the way most of the current gaming market operates where you can just keep making pretty much the same crap over and over - it's easier to persuade a bunch of people to buy your crap when it's done, but to persuade a bunch of people to invest in the crap you plan to make... that's darn near impossible (developers invest in crap because it sells, as I said - it's easier to persuade a bunch of people to buy your crap when it's done).

If it's easier to sell crap when it's done, why would the amount of money being spent on finished crap have anything at all to do with the amount of money available as an upper limit for Kickstarters?

[Shadeling]

Either way, 4m is enough for an 18 month production period.

 

Which raises the concern of what happens if that period comes to a close and the game needs to be delayed. The Kickstarter crowd almost certainly wants a finished game rather than an early release, but where do they get the funds to finance extra work, if its needed?

 

Supposedly Fearghus said in a recent interview that with each stretch goal achieved, it would push out the release date. I didn't read the interview but someone mentioned in on these forums so the 4million stretch goal achievement will probably push the date back a fair bit.

[Veeno]

If it's easier to sell crap when it's done, why would the amount of money being spent on finished crap have anything at all to do with the amount of money available as an upper limit for Kickstarters?

 

I don't understand what you're trying to say.

[Kyecthus]

Either way, 4m is enough for an 18 month production period.

 

Which raises the concern of what happens if that period comes to a close and the game needs to be delayed. The Kickstarter crowd almost certainly wants a finished game rather than an early release, but where do they get the funds to finance extra work, if its needed?

 

Well that's what I was saying. Is that at a bare minimum, they'll have the 18 months of production, but most likely they have 2-2.5 years when you factor in what Regen brought up.

 

And yeah I realize that they don't get the 4.1m. After kickstarter and amazon, they would have had almost 3.7m. Technically its an investment, so whatever taxes Obsidian needs to pay on that, then you've got the rewards to finance and create.

 

Either way, I'm confident that if they go beyond the 18 month window, they'll still be in ok shape and if they really need to, they'd probably open up pre-orders for the game to get extra financing for those who didn't get in on the kickstarter.

[Regenshire]

Either way, 4m is enough for an 18 month production period.

 

Which raises the concern of what happens if that period comes to a close and the game needs to be delayed. The Kickstarter crowd almost certainly wants a finished game rather than an early release, but where do they get the funds to finance extra work, if its needed?

 

Assuming that Obsidian is a healthy company financially, they probably have cash reserves and lines of credit they can draw on to pay salaries and operational expenses for at least several months if not a year or more. I doubt the company is surviving hand to mouth.

[HungryHungryOuroboros]

If it's easier to sell crap when it's done, why would the amount of money being spent on finished crap have anything at all to do with the amount of money available as an upper limit for Kickstarters?

 

I don't understand what you're trying to say.

-People making profit on $20 million games "proves that you can make $20 million for a game"

-It's easier to sell people crap when it's done, selling future crap is, as you say, damn near "impossible"

-If it's so much easier to sell crap after it's been made, then the amount of money spent on finished crap(that is, the profit made on $20 million+ games) says absolutely nothing about the kind of potential cashflow Kickstarters can make. Your logic is now self-contradictory, and not just highly impractical.

[Veeno]

-People making profit on $20 million games "proves that you can make $20 million for a game"

-It's easier to sell people crap when it's done, selling future crap is, as you say, damn near "impossible"

-If it's so much easier to sell crap after it's been made, then the amount of money spent on finished crap(that is, the profit made on $20 million+ games) says absolutely nothing about the kind of potential cashflow Kickstarters can make. Your logic is now self-contradictory, and not just highly impractical.

 

more difficult ≠ impossible

[HungryHungryOuroboros]

more difficult ≠ impossible

 

but to persuade a bunch of people to invest in the crap you plan to make... that's darn near impossible

 

Your words not mine.

[C2B]

Either way, 4m is enough for an 18 month production period.

 

Which raises the concern of what happens if that period comes to a close and the game needs to be delayed. The Kickstarter crowd almost certainly wants a finished game rather than an early release, but where do they get the funds to finance extra work, if its needed?

 

Assuming that Obsidian is a healthy company financially, they probably have cash reserves and lines of credit they can draw on to pay salaries and operational expenses for at least several months if not a year or more. I doubt the company is surviving hand to mouth.

 

They actually are pretty much at the moment. If a big publisher contract gets cancelled they have to let people go. Last happened in March this year AFTER the owners didn't pay themselves for half a year to keep everyone on.

 

That's the reality of contract work in the gaming industry. You don't own IP's, you don't get profits of the game.

Edited October 19, 2012 by C2B

[Veeno]

but to persuade a bunch of people to invest in the crap you plan to make... that's darn near impossible

Your words not mine.

 

darn near impossible ≠ impossible

 

But that is completely beside the point.

 

There is a significant psychological difference between buying crap a publisher invested in and investing in something yourself and having that turn out to be crap - the first will result in mild anger/annoyance, the second in pretty much not wanting to invest in that developer ever again.

 

This does not in any way contradict the reasoning that since there are enough gamers for the publishers to be able to get back their invested 20 million dollars it is not impossible for that money to get to the developer directly, especially when you take into account what percentage of the amount of money people pay for games actually gets to the publisher.

 

I'm not saying that's definitely going to happen one day, my point is only that it's foolish to claim that it definitely won't. It may or it may not, but it's not impossible is all I'm saying.

Edited October 19, 2012 by Veeno