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Purkake

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It's always a pain in the ass to find some comprehensive statistics about MMO subscriptions. That is no longer the case, thanks to www.mmodata.net Here are some fun graphs:

 

1m-12m.png

200k-1m.png

MarketShareMMOG.png

 

If anyone is wondering about the huge drop in WoW numbers, it's mostly because they are having problems in China and it's unavailable there at the moment.

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I've never even heard of Aion. :/

Notice how I can belittle your beliefs without calling you names. It's a useful skill to have particularly where you aren't allowed to call people names. It's a mistake to get too drawn in/worked up. I mean it's not life or death, it's just two guys posting their thoughts on a message board. If it were personal or face to face all the usual restraints would be in place, and we would never have reached this place in the first place. Try to remember that.
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I've never even heard of Aion. :/

 

It's some new pretty Korean-ish MMO using the Cryengine. I'm checking out someone's "

" as I'm writing this, but it's more of a love letter.

 

 

Its startup numbers are even better than WoW's massive gains of a few years ago. Crazy.

Notice how I can belittle your beliefs without calling you names. It's a useful skill to have particularly where you aren't allowed to call people names. It's a mistake to get too drawn in/worked up. I mean it's not life or death, it's just two guys posting their thoughts on a message board. If it were personal or face to face all the usual restraints would be in place, and we would never have reached this place in the first place. Try to remember that.
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Its startup numbers are even better than WoW's massive gains of a few years ago. Crazy.

 

That's what you get when you deprive the Chinese of their WoW. If it wasn't for Aion maybe China would be democratic by now ;)

Edited by Purkake
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Its interesting that no game is even close to WoW. Developers dropping loads of cash on trying to duplicate WoW's success are taking a big risk. Based on current trends they are highly likely to fail.

 

Its also interesting that outside of WoW and now Aion, the overall subscription numbers seem to be trending downward quite dramatically. Eve Online seems to be making slow but consistent gains.

Edited by CrashGirl
Notice how I can belittle your beliefs without calling you names. It's a useful skill to have particularly where you aren't allowed to call people names. It's a mistake to get too drawn in/worked up. I mean it's not life or death, it's just two guys posting their thoughts on a message board. If it were personal or face to face all the usual restraints would be in place, and we would never have reached this place in the first place. Try to remember that.
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Its interesting that no game is even close to WoW. Developers dropping loads of cash on trying to duplicate WoW's success are taking a big risk. Based on current trends they are highly likely to fail.

 

Its also interesting that outside of WoW and now Aion, the overall subscription numbers seem to be trending downward quite dramatically. Eve Online seems to be making slow but consistent gains.

 

Nah, they'll do ok with ~100k subscribers, but yeah they won't be getting any WoW-like success. WoW exceeded some kind of critical mass that drew in all the crazy people who only play WoW and nothing else, all the other MMOs are mostly drawing from the same limited pool of players who jump from one game to another.

 

EVE is one of the only MMOs that is always steadily gaining new players. The one server policy they have is pretty cool.

 

It'll be fun to see The Old Republic try to take over the western market(and hopefully fall flat on it's face).

Edited by Purkake
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As an ex-wow maniac, I can say that wow was released at the perfect time (2nd gen. mmos like original everquest were all winding down and a new generation of gamers were on the horizon) and had the extreme luck of having all of its opponents go bust by bugs / bad content and other problems.

 

Early day Wow was not a masterpiece but by creating new and better end game content and definately not sitting on their arses, Blizz managed to keep the game's hype fresh.

After that, like Purkake mentioned, The game managed to exceed some financial bottleneck and become a monopoly. (Thanks to every opponent making extremely bad decisions and boring its playerbase to tears. SWG, EQ2, War, AoC and countless others i guess.)

 

Now there are actually a lot of people who are bored with WoW but as some of my RL friends put it bluntly; There is no other game (mmo) to play that won't tank in 6 months or run out of content in 2. Aion, with its lenghty development time and not using too many known, yawned and detested Pr hypes, spread through word of mouth and it managed to create a very nice launch numbers.

 

We will see if it will pull an AoC (age of Conan) on us or if it will be able to sustain its fun...

 

 

Edit: Games like Eve and SWG (before Sony caught her in a dark alley and did bad things to her) and a few others that I can't remember at the moment are not MMOs in the same category as others. They were 2ng Generation MMOs aimed at its own target audiance (a number enough to cover it's running costs and a bit more for development) . They started with small targets and got bigger cautiously. Eve might have transformed into a newest generation game with its expansions and overhauls but it's costs always came from their own profits.

Edited by cronicler

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The reason Aion is getting so big is because the hype-machine behind it is pretty good about telling you how it's different and new. If you actually look at the WoW boards there's usually somebody saying that it's gonna be able to push WoW off it's pedestal.

 

I think it's doing something new with the way the classes are dealt with but I'm not sure.

 

That said, probably the only thing that could throw WoW would be something like ToR. By this I mean a game that's based off a franchise that already has a fairly large following behind it. Warhammer did this to a degree and some of their ideas were pretty good (public quests for example), but from what I heard if you weren't active in PvP you were kinda left out at the end of things.

 

I think WoW is going to start seeing a drop off in it's active subscriptions soon becuase in part of the fact that the Chinese government is getting angry with the way it works, but they're also having trouble with how to keep things fresh and not get people so overpowered that you've got the players able to act as raid bosses from the original Endgame. Also with things like Champions Online and Aion doing interesting things with the traditional class system, and with ToR doing serious story telling in their MMO you're probably going to find that Blizzard is going to either have to do a SIGNIFICANT overhaul of WoW with the next expansion, or they are going to start working on the sequel.

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The reason Aion is getting so big is because the hype-machine behind it is pretty good about telling you how it's different and new. If you actually look at the WoW boards there's usually somebody saying that it's gonna be able to push WoW off it's pedestal.

 

I think it's doing something new with the way the classes are dealt with but I'm not sure.

 

That said, probably the only thing that could throw WoW would be something like ToR. By this I mean a game that's based off a franchise that already has a fairly large following behind it. Warhammer did this to a degree and some of their ideas were pretty good (public quests for example), but from what I heard if you weren't active in PvP you were kinda left out at the end of things.

 

I think WoW is going to start seeing a drop off in it's active subscriptions soon becuase in part of the fact that the Chinese government is getting angry with the way it works, but they're also having trouble with how to keep things fresh and not get people so overpowered that you've got the players able to act as raid bosses from the original Endgame. Also with things like Champions Online and Aion doing interesting things with the traditional class system, and with ToR doing serious story telling in their MMO you're probably going to find that Blizzard is going to either have to do a SIGNIFICANT overhaul of WoW with the next expansion, or they are going to start working on the sequel.

 

The question is, can Aion keep the players' interest. That's WoW's real trick, most MMOs get a large amount of subscriptions when they are released but drop down to a few 100k a month or two after that.

 

If there's anything that is going to dethrone WoW, it's going to be Blizzard's next MMO. It would be nice to see it go head to head with TOR, but who know's when they'll release it. I'm sure TOR is going to do really well in the beginning, but the drop off should be even worse once everyone experiences the story and all that is left is (potentially bad) PvP and grinding. I seriously doubt that Bioware can create enough quality story to keep players on it for as long as WoW has.

 

Fun side note: The Matrix Online was shut down just a week ago and they had some cool stuff happening(that you can see on youtube).

 

EDIT: While Warcraft was a popular franchise before WoW, it is in no way comparable to Star Wars. It might have got them some extra numbers in the beginning, but the Warcraft franchise is not the reason for their success.

Edited by Purkake
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Haven't looked at end game content for Aion but the level up content does surpass WoW in nearly every way.

Time will tell if it's end game is going to be a match for WoW but I am not very poessimistic about it as this game was designed for Korean Market as priority (Koreans are really heavy on league style Player versus Player combats and Mass Player vs Envirolment Raids. )

IG. We kick ass and not even take names.

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Lord of the Rings Online and Eve have pretty awesome curves, steady growth for years.

 

This site has been around for awhile though, and it is not an official source. It is just a guy who combs the internet and looks at revenue charts to come up with reasonable guesses at subscriptions. He includes an accuracy rating system to qualify which numbers are official and which are estimates.

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I was sure LotRO was going to sink at first but it had some serious backing at its worst time. Since then it has been growing back up. This seems to be the pitfall for the MMOs, if you go bust on your release hype, it takes some real backing to survive the first time period. A lot of 3rd gen. MMOs died in that period.

IG. We kick ass and not even take names.

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It'll be fun to see The Old Republic try to take over the western market(and hopefully fall flat on it's face).

 

That's rather harsh. You seem a bit cranky today.

 

The reason Aion is getting so big is because the hype-machine behind it is pretty good about telling you how it's different and new. If you actually look at the WoW boards there's usually somebody saying that it's gonna be able to push WoW off it's pedestal.

 

I think it's doing something new with the way the classes are dealt with but I'm not sure.

 

I don't think it's doing anything new with it's classes. There are four base classes, and at level ten, you decide on one of two specilizations. Aion is popular because it's from the makers of Lineage and because people in China can't play WoW.

Edited by Maria Caliban

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It'll be fun to see The Old Republic try to take over the western market(and hopefully fall flat on it's face).

 

That's rather harsh. You seem a bit cranky today.

 

The reason Aion is getting so big is because the hype-machine behind it is pretty good about telling you how it's different and new. If you actually look at the WoW boards there's usually somebody saying that it's gonna be able to push WoW off it's pedestal.

 

I think it's doing something new with the way the classes are dealt with but I'm not sure.

 

I don't think it's doing anything new with it's classes. There are four base classes, and at level ten, you decide on one of two specilizations. Aion is popular because it's from the makers of Lineage and because people in China can't play WoW.

Actually, China is allowed to play WoW again, but Blizzard had to get far more censorship put into it.

Victor of the 5 year fan fic competition!

 

Kevin Butler will awesome your face off.

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It'll be fun to see The Old Republic try to take over the western market(and hopefully fall flat on it's face).

 

That's rather harsh. You seem a bit cranky today.

 

I'm just not a big fan of MMOs and I'm cranky about the whole KotOR 3 is an MMO business. Also, Bioware is being pretty ****y about their revolutionary "story-based MMO" thing, which I'll believe when I see it.

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Its interesting that no game is even close to WoW. Developers dropping loads of cash on trying to duplicate WoW's success are taking a big risk. Based on current trends they are highly likely to fail.

 

Its also interesting that outside of WoW and now Aion, the overall subscription numbers seem to be trending downward quite dramatically. Eve Online seems to be making slow but consistent gains.

 

I'm not sure there are any developers out there that actually look at WoW's numbers as a goal. Only in their lofty dreams. And all of SOE's titles cut off in that chart after 2007, presumably when Sony stopped sharing numbers.

 

The only real negative thing I see here is WAR and AoC taking huge hits after the initial rush. That seems to be a trend for the market, after the first month you get a huge drop. Now if developer's anticipate and don't blow all that initial capital, they should be able to stabilize and keep going. I imagine it's a tough thing to work on a spreadsheet.

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Its interesting that no game is even close to WoW. Developers dropping loads of cash on trying to duplicate WoW's success are taking a big risk. Based on current trends they are highly likely to fail.

 

Its also interesting that outside of WoW and now Aion, the overall subscription numbers seem to be trending downward quite dramatically. Eve Online seems to be making slow but consistent gains.

 

I'm not sure there are any developers out there that actually look at WoW's numbers as a goal. Only in their lofty dreams. And all of SOE's titles cut off in that chart after 2007, presumably when Sony stopped sharing numbers.

 

The only real negative thing I see here is WAR and AoC taking huge hits after the initial rush. That seems to be a trend for the market, after the first month you get a huge drop. Now if developer's anticipate and don't blow all that initial capital, they should be able to stabilize and keep going. I imagine it's a tough thing to work on a spreadsheet.

Champions Online is aiming for 100000 subscriptions before they declare success (and think about making Nemesis online)

Victor of the 5 year fan fic competition!

 

Kevin Butler will awesome your face off.

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Blizzard is going to either have to do a SIGNIFICANT overhaul of WoW with the next expansion, or they are going to start working on the sequel.

 

I dunno about a sequel, but Blizzard has been working on their next MMO for at least good two years now. And it's an original universe. Blizzard is fully aware that WoW is starting to get stale and they'll be ready to pounce as soon as that happens. And gamers will be ready to buy.

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It's also disturbing that China is using its draconian censorship to try and destroy WoW in China.

 

As long as they do that to every MMO I'll be singing them praises.

 

That stupid genre will be the ruin of the PC.

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