NFL Season 2009

[Gfted1]

Raw talent wise, I agree with Volourn. "Team" wise, hes a cancer. Tough call. Im from the school of shut-your-damn-mouth-and-do-your-job but you cant ignore his history with three teams.

 

Dallas also jettisoned S Roy Williams. Good move, he was a huge liability.

Edited March 5, 2009 by Gfted1

[Volourn]

I'm from the school that if you do your job better than anyone else you should keep said job. Of course, this is barring extreme cases like those conficted of heinous crimes, for obvious reasons.

[Enoch]

I'm from the school that if you do your job better than anyone else you should keep said job. Of course, this is barring extreme cases like those conficted of heinous crimes, for obvious reasons.

That's very admirable of you Volo, but it means that you would make a terrible NFL GM.

 

First, it ignores the fact that players don't all make the same salary: If a smart GM can replace a guy making $5M/season with a guy who isn't quite as good but only makes $500K/season, Mr $5M is out on the street.

 

Second, it ignores the fact that time waits for no man. In a physical sport like football, all athletes lose effectiveness as they get deeper into their 30s. Sure, 35-year-old T.O. was more effective than 27-year-old Roy Williams in 2008, but what are the odds that the same is the case with 36-year-old T.O.? It's often a difficult choice to make, but it is nearly always better to cut ties with a player a year too early than it is a year too late.

 

Third, it ignores the elements of performance that aren't immediately obvious in on-field performance. Does the player make the other guys around him better or worse? Does he lead by example, and does he help to teach the younger guys at his position? Is he supportive or destructive of the coach's authority and discipline? Does he willingly do the little things that don't accrue him stats or fan adoration, like blocking downfield on running plays or running convincing clearing routes to open up other receivers underneath?

 

Fourth, it shows that you weren't watching Owens' performance particularly closely in 2008. He is clearly slipping-- opponents with decent personnel were often meaningfully limiting his effectiveness with just 1 CB, which is a major dropoff from when he was at his a couple seasons ago. And at his age, that decline is likely to be steep.

 

 

Owens still has value as a starting WR for another season or two. But I'd take any of the 10 guys I listed above ahead of him for those years, as well as at least 5 other guys. And, if I'm staffing a team for the long haul, there are probably 50 WRs I'd take before a 35-year-old, me-first, camera-hound T.O.

Edited March 6, 2009 by Enoch

[Volourn]

"Owens still has value as a starting WR for another season or two. But I'd take any of the 10 guys I listed above ahead of him for those years, as well as at least 5 other guys."

 

K. Let's go by what you just wrote. You ahve 15ish WR rated higher than him. Fine. There are what? 32 teams in the NFL? Like I said, he's still a #1 WR.

 

 

" if I'm staffing a team for the long haul, there are probably 50 WRs I'd take before a 35-year-old, me-first, camera-hound T.O."

 

Even with your 50 WR, that still makes him, at worst, a #2 WR.

 

And, oh, the Cowboys are better with him in the line up then out. And, the Giants proved lasts eason how important a #1 WR is when they bought the farm without Burress.

 

 

 

"That's very admirable of you Volo, but it means that you would make a terrible NFL GM."

 

Wrong. I'd make agreat GM. Great GMs hire the best players they can. This, of course, means some sacrifices have to be made due to salary. However, we both know, Owens being fired had nothing to do with his salary but this perception that he's a bad seed and he is being blamed for the Cowboys' downfall which is baloney. A good GM would make it work like the Patriots did with the Big Bad Evil Moss. You know.. the guy who was gonna destropy the Pats' chemistry. LMAO

 

And, let's not forget that Big bad Evil Owens has a history of making the teams he's on better. Just check out the Eagles who villified him. They'd have won that SB if it wasn't for McNabb choking as Owens put his all and performed pretty well considering the injury he was fighting. Dallas was a joke prior to Owens. And, SF has been pretty bad since Owens left.

 

Coincidences? I think not.

[Enoch]

Statistical Analysis: Is T.O. Done?

 

If you look at Owens' traditional statistics from 2008, the figures aren't all that bad. He accrued 1052 yards and ten touchdowns, figures that were 12th and ninth in the league amongst all wide receivers, respectively.

 

However, if you're thinking that those numbers don't jibe with how Owens really played and what it meant to the team, you're right. Owens only had two 100-yard games all season, with a 213-yard performance against a mediocre 49ers' pass defense joined by 103 meaningless yards in the season-ending disaster against the Eagles. He only had three other games above 80 yards, two of which came against the woeful pass defenses of Seattle and Cleveland.

 

There was also a noticeable dropoff in other metrics as well. Despite being thrown virtually the same amount of passes (140 in 2008 as opposed to 141 in 2007), Owens saw his first downs drop from 69 to 38. His catch rate went down from 57 percent to 49 percent.

 

All of that data gets encapsulated into Owens' DYAR, our metric which measures performance against the league average on a cumulative basis after adjusting for down, distance, opponent, and situation. In 2007, Owens accrued 449 DYAR, a figure which put him behind only Randy Moss among the leaders at wide receiver. In 2008, Owens accrued 86 DYAR, a total which left him

[Volourn]

Answer to the question on whether or not TO is done: NO!

[Enoch]

Answer to the question on whether or not TO is done: NO!

Well, the Buffalo Bills hope you're right.

 

But look at the money-- 1 year at $6.5M. Sounds nice to you and me, but it's a noticeably below-market deal for a supposed top-10 WR. For example, it's less than the per year average that Laveranues Coles got from the Bengals a week ago, and nobody is confusing Coles with a gamebreaking #1 WR. T.O. accepted a short-term contract at a sub-elite salary level because the teams that aren't completely put off by his general jackassery and insubordination realize that his performance isn't what it used to be. He's a role-player, not a star anymore.

[Volourn]

Yeah, he's a 'role-player' making 6.5 mil a year when he was making 9mil or so last year. So, yeah, he took a pay cut but he's not being paid to be a role-player. Bill;s are mostd efinitely expecting #1 or #2 WR type numbers. If he plays like a 'role-player', the signing would be a failure.

[Enoch]

OK. I suppose my choice of words was a bit strong (depending on how one reads "role-player"). Allow me to rephrase: His contract tells me that teams think of him as a competent starting WR, but not a star WR.

 

Buffalo's current #1 WR, Lee Evans, is making more money than Owens is. Frankly, at the price they got, I think it is a good signing for Buffalo. T.O. can out-muscle the DBs and run the underneath and intermediate routes to draw the defense's attention while Evans, the speedster, goes deep. He'll also help a lot in their goal-line passing offense, where Evans' speed is neutralized by the short field.

[Kelverin]

Some schedule news

 

Opening Weekend

 

Titans @ Steelers - Thursday, September 10th

Bears @ Packers - Sunday night

Bills @ Patriots - Monday

Chargers @ Raiders - Monday

 

Thanksgiving

 

Packers @ Lions

Raiders @ Cowboys

Giants @ Broncos

 

 

 

 

 

Compensatory picks

 

"A total of 32 compensatory choices in the 2009 NFL Draft have been awarded to 16 teams, the NFL announced on Monday. Cincinnati and Tennessee received the most compensatory picks with four apiece."

 

Here is how the 32 compensatory picks are broken down by team:

Cincinnati 4, Tennessee 4, Chicago 3, New England 3, Seattle 3,

Dallas 2, Jacksonville 2, San Diego 2, San Francisco 2, Arizona 1,

Detroit 1, Indianapolis 1, Kansas City 1, New York Giants 1,

Pittsburgh 1, Washington 1.

[Enoch]

Should be an interesting opening weekend. Although I doubt that many people east of the Rockies will be staying up for the late Monday nighter. (Which I've seen referred to elsewhere as the "Best the West Coast Could Do" Bowl.)

 

Getting the night game on Thanksgiving is a bit of kick in the nuts for my Giants. Nothing they can't overcome, but flying across 2/3rds of the country in a short week to play an outdoor night game in late November at that altitude is no picnic.

 

 

The Steelers got screwed in the compensatory pick calculation. The best-guess based on past-year comp picks had them getting a likely 3rd-rounder as compensation for losing Alan Faneca to a big-money free agent offer. They ended up with a 5th.

 

Anyhow, leading with the total number of acquired picks isn't particularly informative. The most important part is the teams that got the 3rd- (NE, CIN, CHI, NYG) and 4th-round (SD X2, TEN, IND) bonus selections.

[Kelverin]

Some new rule changes.

 

owners passed a rule allowing video replays on a loose ball that could be either a fumble or an incomplete pass.

 

replay now can be used to determine if a loose ball hit the sideline.

 

eliminated a rekick after an illegal onside kick, immediately awarding the ball to the receiving team.

 

The draft order for playoff teams was reworked and will be based on where teams were eliminated in the postseason.

 

A waiver period during the first two weeks of training camp was established.

Owners also reworded when the postseason waiver period begins -- previously it was after the Pro Bowl. In the future, the Super Bowl will be played after the Pro Bowl in some seasons, and the waiver period will begin after the final postseason game.

 

Finally, on all fumbles and laterals that go out of bounds, the clock will start when the referee signals ready for play.

 

 

 

The commissioner wants to expand the regular season, that's a good thing

[Hurlshort]

Wait, what? The Super Bowl will be played after the Pro Bowl?

[Kelverin]

Wait, what? The Super Bowl will be played after the Pro Bowl?

Correct, it's meant to generate more interest, will it work?

 

Not for me it won't.

[Enoch]

The NFL also enacted 4 rule changes for player safety reasons.

 

The big one, from a strategic point of view, is the elimination of the "wedge" on kickoff returns. Now, no more than 2 players can group together to block on returns. That one is going to have a pretty huge impact-- the established strategy that has been used for decades in now illegal.

[Kelverin]

Find your teams preseason schedule.

 

"Super Bowl rematch highlights 2009 NFL preseason schedule

 

National Football League

 

It's preseason but it'll have the look of the playoffs.

 

The NFL's slate of 11 nationally televised preseason games will feature all 12 2008 playoff teams, one of the highlights of the 2009 NFL preseason schedule announced today."

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8...mp;confirm=true

[Enoch]

Ho-lee crap. The Broncos have announced that they plan to trade starting QB Jay Cutler:

Bowlen said he spoke with Cutler's agent, Bus Cook, on Tuesday and came away convinced "that Jay no longer has any desire to play for the Denver Broncos."

 

Therefore, Bowlen said, "We will begin discussions with other teams in an effort to accommodate his request to be traded."

Two thoughts: 1) Mike Shanahan is smiling wider now than he did when he won back-to-back Super Bowls. 2) Roughly 2/3rds of the league should be falling over themselves to offer their staring QB plus most of their draft picks for the guy.

 

So where does Cutler end up? Tampa? The Jets? Chicago? Cleveland? Minnesota?

Edited April 1, 2009 by Enoch

[Kelverin]

 

Hopefully this "professional" athlete stays in the AFC west

[Volourn]

He's been very professional. It's the team's fault. They basically said they thoguht he sucked, and tried to get rid of him. The rtade fell through but he found out about it and has asked them to let him go BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT HIM ANYMORE ANYWAYS. Why would an employee stay with a company who no longer wants him espciially when they have repeatedly lied to him over, and over again.

 

And, oh, teams shouldn't offer much for him because teams know that Denver has shot themselves in teh foot and at this point the damage is done so Cutler and the Broncos are over. They'll likely get a draft pick or two or some second tier guys at best.

 

Nnowing how unprofessional, and evil teams cna be; they'll probably ship him off to detroit as 'punishment'. But, hey, at least in Detroit he'll be WANTED.

[Enoch]

Yeah, it's pretty sad when a player gets to the level that makes Phil Rivers look professional...

 

 

@Volo, we all know where you come from-- the players are always virtuous and the teams are always stupid. While it's true that the Broncos have little leverage, that isn't going to matter much. Teams trying to get Cutler aren't bidding against Denver-- they're bidding against each other. And it only takes 2 of them to get the offers up into stratospheric levels. I'd say that the Eli Manning trade in '04 sets the floor on Cutler's value. Similar situation in that the player and the team are at complete odds, but Cutler has 3 years of proven quality play, which Eli didn't.

 

 

Anyhow, I've got to find out where Belichick keeps getting these great voodoo dolls of all his former assistants/coordinators.

[Gfted1]

That trade blows my mind. They've basically gutted their team for the next 3 years. I cant help but seeing it as cutting off your nose to spite your face.

[Kelverin]

Yeah, it's pretty sad when a player gets to the level that makes Phil Rivers look professional...

At least Rivers has had a winning season (multiple in fact, everywhere he has gone) unlike Cutler who has yet to even push any team ever to a winning record. Let's have a winning season before we claim this clown as the second coming. What do you football "experts" find in this guy? A million dollar arm and a 10 cent head. A whinny bitch as well.

 

"Wah they tried to trade me." "Don't they know who I am I have a stronger arm than Elway" Lol

This is a business and no one is above it, get over yourself.

Edited April 1, 2009 by Kelverin

[Volourn]

You are forgetting that for the majority of his career, Elway couldn't win anything either than right at the end he won two championships. *shrug*

 

And, Cutler was/is not Denvers' problem. the D is horrible. The running game is not that good. There's a reason why Cutler made the Pro Bowl this season, and it's ebcause he is that damn good.

 

And, whine about professionality all you wnat; but it was Denever who acted like poor professionals with their constant lying to him.

 

And, yup, I will almost always side with players over teams or fans because teams never have loyalty to players and fans are selfish, evil, and jealous scumbags.

 

 

"This is a business and no one is above it, get over yourself."

 

if it's a business like you claim, than the #1 thing is to look after yourself because nobody else will. Denever surely doesn't care about Cutler so why should he care about them?

Edited April 1, 2009 by Volourn

[Kelverin]

You are forgetting that for the majority of his career, Elway couldn't win anything either than right at the end he won two championships. *shrug*

 

And, Cutler was/is not Denvers' problem. the D is horrible. The running game is not that good. There's a reason why Cutler made the Pro Bowl this season, and it's ebcause he is that damn good.

 

And, whine about professionality all you wnat; but it was Denever who acted like poor professionals with their constant lying to him.

 

And, yup, I will almost always side with players over teams or fans because teams never have loyalty to players and fans are selfish, evil, and jealous scumbags.

 

 

"This is a business and no one is above it, get over yourself."

 

if it's a business like you claim, than the #1 thing is to look after yourself because nobody else will. Denever surely doesn't care about Cutler so why should he care about them?

I am not forgetting anything, Elway was the reason those Denver team's he was on won and reached the big stage, it was only on the big stage that his inferior team was exposed, he carried the team on his shoulder's like a winning QB should. He won in Stanford, hell he won in High School, unlike cutler. As far as the meaningless Pro bowl is concerned he got there because of meaningless stats that he got against terrible AFC west defenses and because his team was behind all the time. How many 4th quarter comebacks does this guy have? Not many if at all. Oh and how did he do in the Pro bowl? Did he lead the AFC back to victory? Nope choked as usual and had a pathetic performance as well. The guy has no heart.

 

Heart = overcoming all obstacles to achieve victory in the end!

 

Denver never said they did not care about him, the new coach fell in love with casell and tried to trade for him. If cutler gets offended by that that's his issue not the organizations. Again no one is bigger then the NFL and no player is bigger than the team.

[Enoch]

Ugh. Volo's always-stick-up-for-the-players attitude is pretty laughable. But Kelv's retort that all quarterbacks should be judged only by wins and losses and that some mythical "clutchness" is anything more than fans (encouraged by ignorant sportswriters) oversimplifying a very complex game is equally laughable.

 

Both Broncs management and Cutler (and his agents) have a pretty large amount of egg on their face right now. The Broncos look worse because Cutler is getting what he wants-- a trade away to a team that will give him an enormous contract extension-- but the hissy fit he threw to get it doesn't exactly endear him to the public.